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Flo rankings this week

Z

zzs006

Well-Known Member
Mar 27, 2017
3,300
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1
125-Davis-#2
133-Nagao-#5
141-Bartlett-#1
149-Kasak-#12
157-Haines-#1
165-Mesenbrink-#7
174-Starocci-#1
184-Truax-#7
197-AB-#1
Heavy-Kerk-#1

So 5 number 1’s is pretty decent I would say.

Interesting is that number 2 at 157 is Vinny Zerban from N. CO who beat Levi early last year. He has just continued to get better and has become a real threat at this weight. I’m sure Levi would like a rematch with him as well

 
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PSU with a 76.5 pt spread now… which is more points than #2 Okie State! It’s so competitive between the rest of the top ten
 
Yeah, personally I think Davis is ranked a bit too high, but in fairness, 125 is a mess this year and he remains the lone undefeated guy. I also think Kasak and especially Mesenbrink are probably a hair low, but it's hard to complain about 5 #1 guys and 9 in the top 10 (10 in the top 12).
 
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billrag said:
Yeah, personally I think Davis is ranked a bit too high, but in fairness, 125 is a mess this year and he remains the lone undefeated guy. I also think Kasak and especially Mesenbrink are probably a hair low, but it's hard to complain about 5 #1 guys and 9 in the top 10 (10 in the top 12).
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Yeah, 125 is a mess. Davis has been a revelation, but he doesn't really feel like a #2 seed. It would be an accomplishment for him to be an AA this year, but who knows about 125. They still have Luke Stanich ranked #3 when it's pretty clear he's redshirting (and just lost to a high school kid).

Mesenbrink feels too low as well, but he doesn't have any wins against the guys above him yet, either. Friday's match with #6 Caliendo will be telling for him, and he'll get #5 Hamiti at B1Gs, so we'll have a better picture of where he fits in in a little bit, but the top 3 are all in the Big 12. I think a bonus point win vs. Caliendo will move him up a couple places, but that's going to be very tough to do.
 
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Here is what it would look like if Flow's current rankings were used for seeds at Big Tens.

Team (# of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th. 5th seeds)
PSU (5,2,2,1,0)
Mich (1.3.0.3,1)
Iowa (0,2,3.1.0)
Neb (2,0,0,2,2)
OSU (0,0,2,1,2)

Of course, depth will play a big part, but with the potential of 7 or 8 into the semis, Mich looks to be the favorite for 2nd place.

I expect the Big Tens to be more competitive than the NCAAs. With the field being more condensed and PSU getting maybe 7 byes in the 1st round, we will have fewer opportunities for bonus points.
 
Last edited:
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jack66 said:
Here is what it would look like if Flow's current rankings were used for seeds at Big Tens.

Team (# of 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th. 5th seeds)
PSU (5,2,2,1,0)
Mich (1.3.0.3,1)
Iowa (0,2,3.1.0)
Neb (2,0,0,2,2)
OSU (0,0,2,1,2)

Of course, depth will play a big part, but with the potential of 7 or 8 into the semis, Mich looks to be the favorite for 2nd place.

I expect the Big Tens to be more competitive than the NCAAs. With the field being more condensed and PSU getting maybe 9 byes in the 1st round, we will have fewer opportunities for bonus points.
Click to expand...
That means 7 of our wrestlers would get byes the first round of the BIG tournament, and we'll be in 8th place or worse starting the second round. Message board melt down, like it is every year. The annual ritual of a few posters that don't follow until the start of the tournament :eek:
 
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CentexLion said:
That means 7 of our wrestlers would get byes the first round of the BIG tournament, and we'll be in 8th place or worse starting the second round. Message board melt down, like it is every year. The annual ritual of a few posters that don't follow until the start of the tournament :eek:
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WE'RE LOSING TO RUTGERS!!!1!!!1!!!!11!!!!!!! FIRE CAEL!
 
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zzs006 said:
125-Davis-#2
133-Nagao-#5
141-Bartlett-#1
149-Kasak-#12
157-Haines-#1
165-Mesenbrink-#7
174-Starocci-#1
184-Truax-#7
197-AB-#1
Heavy-Kerk-#1

So 5 number 1’s is pretty decent I would say.

Interesting is that number 2 at 157 is Vinny Zerban from N. CO who beat Levi early last year. He has just continued to get better and has become a real threat at this weight. I’m sure Levi would like a rematch with him as well

Click to expand...
INTERMAT

Davis 2
Nagao 6
Beau 1
Kasak 10
Levi 1
MM 7
Star 1
Truax 6
Brooks 1
Kerk 1
 
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Speaking of Cael variants, how is it that Gia is not in meltdown over the commitment of voinovichs brother? Did they make him change the spelling of his name?
 
I finally figured it out. tNT has Iowa wrestlers lose so they get a prelim match in BIG’s so they can win the BIG title.

They are so so smart.
 
CentexLion said:
That means 7 of our wrestlers would get byes the first round of the BIG tournament, and we'll be in 8th place or worse starting the second round. Message board melt down, like it is every year. The annual ritual of a few posters that don't follow until the start of the tournament :eek:
Click to expand...
Maybe Cael can throw a chair and start with a (-1). At least we would be on the board.
 
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I prefer order and uniformity over haphazzardnous

Davis 5
Nagao 5
Beau 1
Kasak 5
Levi 1
MM 3
Star 1
Truax 5
Brooks 1
Kerk 1

I think I can defend this. Maybe after the next dual.
 
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I know people think Davis needs to beat a few more top guys to justify his ranking but how can you not rank him first or second. Only undefeated guy and has wins over guys that beat the others near the top. I’m glad he’s not number 1 and gun to my head I think he places closer to 8 than 1 but as rankings go at this point in the season he’s right where he should be
 
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There is a difference between rankings and predictions. That is why I prefer Willie's Crystal Ball predictions.
 
jmadden1998 said:
Based on the rankings it should be a shutout.
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Do we have to go through math again? Even if these rankings indicated that there is an 80% chance of a PSU victory at every weight, the odds of a shutout is only 10% (or 0.8^10 for the 10 matches) and the most likely outcome is 8-2. The difficulty is picking specifically which upsets will happen, but there's no chance in hell that this match "should be a shutout".
 
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Random4598375 said:
Do we have to go through math again? Even if these rankings indicated that there is an 80% chance of a PSU victory at every weight, the odds of a shutout is only 10% (or 0.8^10 for the 10 matches) and the most likely outcome is 8-2. The difficulty is picking specifically which upsets will happen, but there's no chance in hell that this match "should be a shutout".
Click to expand...
Apparently, we do.
 
Random4598375 said:
Do we have to go through math again? Even if these rankings indicated that there is an 80% chance of a PSU victory at every weight, the odds of a shutout is only 10% (or 0.8^10 for the 10 matches) and the most likely outcome is 8-2. The difficulty is picking specifically which upsets will happen, but there's no chance in hell that this match "should be a shutout".
Click to expand...


Thinking Think GIF by Rodney Dangerfield
 
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Random4598375 said:
Do we have to go through math again? Even if these rankings indicated that there is an 80% chance of a PSU victory at every weight, the odds of a shutout is only 10% (or 0.8^10 for the 10 matches) and the most likely outcome is 8-2. The difficulty is picking specifically which upsets will happen, but there's no chance in hell that this match "should be a shutout".
Click to expand...
There is also no chance in hell that the outcomes are random. Think Poisson, not Normal.
 
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Agoodnap said:
There is also no chance in hell that the outcomes are random. Think Poisson, not Normal.
Click to expand...
The matches should be independent enough for a normal assumption to be reasonable for this approximation, but point taken. A more substantive model would account for correlation between results due to momentum or whatever.
 
Random4598375 said:
Do we have to go through math again? Even if these rankings indicated that there is an 80% chance of a PSU victory at every weight, the odds of a shutout is only 10% (or 0.8^10 for the 10 matches) and the most likely outcome is 8-2. The difficulty is picking specifically which upsets will happen, but there's no chance in hell that this match "should be a shutout".
Click to expand...
iu
 
Random4598375 said:
Do we have to go through math again? Even if these rankings indicated that there is an 80% chance of a PSU victory at every weight, the odds of a shutout is only 10% (or 0.8^10 for the 10 matches) and the most likely outcome is 8-2. The difficulty is picking specifically which upsets will happen, but there's no chance in hell that this match "should be a shutout".
Click to expand...
Actually, it's too small a sample size for normal probability rules to apply and each match is a singular event. So based on rankings, a shutout is by far the most likely outcome.
 
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