I think a lot of us here are downplaying our chances so as not to end up disappointed. For example, we’re talking up how poorly we played against Minnesota and Indiana, without giving the mitigating circumstances. The Minnesota game was away against an undefeated team, psyched up for their largest game in eons. Indiana was a natural trap game, right before the biggest game of our season. In neither of them did we have Cain playing. Given those circumstances, it’s not unreasonable to think that our poor play in those games was an outlier and that our true form was better reflected in, say, the Iowa or Michigan State games.
If we are as good as the team we thought we were the first eight weeks, there is reason to believe that we could win this game without any flukes or luck involved.
Here’s the most likely way we can outplay Ohio State: first, our defense holds OSU’s rushing in check enough that they feel the need to pass. This is doable, since run defense is arguably Penn State’s greatest strength. Then we hope that Fields doesn’t have a good day passing. Being put in obvious passing downs, under nasty weather conditions, during the pressure of a close game, and against an athletic defense, would make for more difficulty than he has faced all year. He may come up big, but given those obstacles, it’s not a crazy thought that he does not.
On offense, we get enough points to keep up with Ohio State and eat up enough clock to keep the defense fresh and stout for the whole game. Short passes to Freiermuth and grinding runs with Cain are two tactics for methodically moving the ball downfield. Hamler can make big plays to keep the defense from selling out against the run, and Brown can spell Cain if necessary. Clifford can scramble if all else is covered, and two TE sets would give us both an extra blocker and an extra set of sure hands. It’s my understanding that Wisconsin was overconfident in its OL’s ability to block Chase Young and therefore didn’t give it any help in stopping him. The extra TE might be our way of avoiding that mistake. Speaking of the Wisconsin game, that was the only game where OSU’s defense faced a team with a legitimate offensive weapon: Jonathan Taylor. Without other weapons to worry about, they did a fine job of stifling him. Let’s see what they do this time, when they will face three weapons: Cain, Freiermuth, and Hamler. They can certainly blank us and make Clifford nervous, but then again, they might not.
In summary, assuming Rahne is not a complete idiot, we can win this game without luck or turnovers by winning two matchups: 1) Our run defense beats their run offense. 2) Clifford outplays Fields. If those two things happen, and all else goes according to chalk, we win.