Heard another CFB analyst say today that if PSU and OSU both win out,

[demlion]

and PSU wins the championship game, he would "have to" pick OSU to be ranked higher than PSU because "Ohio State is the better team."

Understand, if both teams go to the championship playoff, all this will mean is that OSU gets to duck Alabama in the opening round.

"Win out, make them pick the team that lost on the field." RUTGERS.

 

[BoulderFish]

and PSU wins the championship game, he would "have to" pick OSU to be ranked higher than PSU because "Ohio State is the better team."

Understand, if both teams go to the championship playoff, all this will mean is that OSU gets to duck Alabama in the opening round.

"Win out, make them pick the team that lost on the field." RUTGERS.

In that scenario, Penn State beat Ohio State on the field, hadn't lost since (indicating little/no drop since beating OSU), and added a win in the B1G CCG -- likely over a top-10 Wisconsin team. In that scenario, there is no rational logic that would allow one to declare that "Ohio State is the better team."

 

[dna1995]

I believe the fact that the winning percentages of our past opponents is at the top of the rankings as well (over Alabama even) helps. But, just beat Butgers and MSU and see what happens. What a ride 2016 has been! Very cool season to be a PSU alum and fan.

 

[demlion]

In that scenario, Penn State beat Ohio State on the field, hadn't lost since (indicating little/no drop since beating OSU), and added a win in the B1G CCG -- likely over a top-10 Wisconsin team. In that scenario, there is no rational logic that would allow one to declare that "Ohio State is the better team."

Yeah. Well, it would not be the first time recently that logic failed us.

 

[demlion]

I believe the fact that the winning percentages of our past opponents is at the top of the rankings as well (over Alabama even) helps. But, just beat Butgers and MSU and see what happens. What a ride 2016 has been! Very cool season to be a PSU alum and fan.

Agreed, but that winning percentage is about to take a very big hit, since the two teams we are about to play are as bad as you can get in terms of winning %age. We wont be at the top 2 weeks from now.

 

[Wexford Buckeye]

In that scenario, Penn State beat Ohio State on the field, hadn't lost since (indicating little/no drop since beating OSU), and added a win in the B1G CCG -- likely over a top-10 Wisconsin team. In that scenario, there is no rational logic that would allow one to declare that "Ohio State is the better team."

Sure there is logic to argue for Ohio State, just as there is for Penn State. But the argument about one game determining the strength of each team is specious. So if PSU is better than OSU, is Pitt better than PSU AND Clemson, because of their wins? Of course not. There are other games that come into play. The whole thing becomes a maze of contradictory games, with some teams beating others, yet losing to different opponents. The only clear way to work through this argument of who beat who is overall record as a base point. PSU has a good argument. OSU does too.

 

[demlion]

Sure there is logic to argue for Ohio State, just as there is for Penn State. But the argument about one game determining the strength of each team is specious. So if PSU is better than OSU, is Pitt better than PSU AND Clemson, because of their wins? Of course not. There are other games that come into play. The whole thing becomes a maze of contradictory games, with some teams beating others, yet losing to different opponents. The only clear way to work through this argument of who beat who is overall record as a base point. PSU has a good argument. OSU does too.

So if OSU gets to the national title game against Alabama, they are not the better team if they win? Huh. I thought that was the point of playing the games.

 

[Wexford Buckeye]

So if OSU gets to the national title game against Alabama, they are not the better team if they win? Huh. I thought that was the point of playing the games.

Of course, in a playoff scenario. But not so much in the regular season, where the whole season counts. I'm not knocking the Lions. They beat OSU fair and square. They win many tiebreakers against OSU, one game, division, and conference championship. But it seems the way they do things nationally, those two losses overcome the good win.

 

[BoulderFish]

Sure there is logic to argue for Ohio State, just as there is for Penn State. But the argument about one game determining the strength of each team is specious. So if PSU is better than OSU, is Pitt better than PSU AND Clemson, because of their wins? Of course not. There are other games that come into play. The whole thing becomes a maze of contradictory games, with some teams beating others, yet losing to different opponents. The only clear way to work through this argument of who beat who is overall record as a base point. PSU has a good argument. OSU does too.

Teams get better and worse throughout the season. That's why you can't just point to games all through the season and apply their results to right now.

After PSU beat Ohio State, Ohio State was still ranked higher than Penn State, and I was ok with that. At that point, it was still quite possible that Penn State's win over OSU was an "any given saturday" kinda thing, and Ohio State was generally better than Penn State (just not on that night).

However, as time has passed since then, Penn State has shown that the outcome of the game that night probably wasn't just an "any given saturday" kinda thing -- Especially when you factor in that their two losses prior to that night were while they were decimated with injuries at the LB position (playing walk-on back ups of walk-on back ups).

Then, again using the OP's scenario, Penn State adds another win vs a top-10 opponent (Wisconsin in the CCG), further solidifying that OSU and PSU are approximate equals.

AT THAT POINT, once it's established that OSU and PSU are approximate equals, the PSU win over OSU makes it illogical to conclude that Ohio State is better than Penn State.

 

[Lions8286]

Currently OSU is #2. If my state school math is correct, there are still 2 slots available behind them.

 

[PennSt8er]

Penn State will not get in to the dance this season. The cards have been dealt. Best case is Rose Bowl. The pundit assholes are scripting it that way. I think it largely has to do with 2 losses vs only 1. And huge massive enormous homer bias generated primarily from anchoring to what they thought should be true in their original rankings. They anchor to their prior beliefs and then justify it after the fact when they look to be wrong. Just look at how the scandal turned out for evidence of anchor bias.

 

[Wexford Buckeye]

Teams get better and worse throughout the season. That's why you can't just point to games all through the season and apply their results to right now.

After PSU beat Ohio State, Ohio State was still ranked higher than Penn State, and I was ok with that. At that point, it was still quite possible that Penn State's win over OSU was an "any given saturday" kinda thing, and Ohio State was generally better than Penn State (just not on that night).

However, as time has passed since then, Penn State has shown that the outcome of the game that night probably wasn't just an "any given saturday" kinda thing -- Especially when you factor in that their two losses prior to that night were while they were decimated with injuries at the LB position (playing walk-on back ups of walk-on back ups).

Then, again using the OP's scenario, Penn State adds another win vs a top-10 opponent, further solidifying that OSU and PSU are approximate equals.

AT THAT POINT, once it's established that OSU and PSU are approximate equals, the PSU win over OSU makes it illogical to conclude that Ohio State is better than Penn State.

You make good points. I'm just not there yet.

 

[joeparules]

I still laugh at how they call this a "playoff". Four teams = playoffs? Really? Until they expand to at least eight teams or (hopefully) 16 teams, this is not an actual playoff. D1 football is still the only NCAA sport at any level to not have a playoff determine the national champion. With 5 "power conferences" and only four seats at the table, we still don't know who the best team is in CFB. Sure the 9th or 17th team will argue their case, but expanding the "playoffs" only increases the chance of crowning the true best team who proved it on the field.

Until that time arrives, this is all just still a popularity contest!

 

[demlion]

Of course, in a playoff scenario. But not so much in the regular season, where the whole season counts. I'm not knocking the Lions. They beat OSU fair and square. They win many tiebreakers against OSU, one game, division, and conference championship. But it seems the way they do things nationally, those two losses overcome the good win.

I hear you, but the bowl selection folks have already spoken to this: Conference champions get an advantage, except in this case the guy is saying they won't, even if they won on the field.

Hey we have a very long way to go. Beating Wisconsin, as you know, is not something you just assume you are going to do, especially with your 3d string tackles. Any of the three teams left could beat us and let you off the hook. But to let OSU in at 3d so they do not have to play 'Bama?

That's a bridge too far.

 

[Wexford Buckeye]

I still laugh at how they call this a "playoff". Four teams = playoffs? Really? Until they expand to at least eight teams or (hopefully) 16 teams, this is not an actual playoff. D1 football is still the only NCAA sport at any level to not have a playoff determine the national champion. With 5 "power conferences" and only four seats at the table, we still don't know who the best team is in CFB. Sure the 9th or 17th team will argue their case, but expanding the "playoffs" only increases the chance of crowning the true best team who proved it on the field.

Until that time arrives, this is all just still a popularity contest!

Baby steps. They had the archaic bowl system, where the boys in blazers dictated all. The Bowl Alliance tried to set up better games. The BCS actually tried to make a championship, warts and all. This 4 team 'playoff' is light years better than what we had before. I'm sure the controversies in the system will drive a push for 8 teams at some point.

 

[BoulderFish]

Baby steps. They had the archaic bowl system, where the boys in blazers dictated all. The Bowl Alliance tried to set up better games. The BCS actually tried to make a championship, warts and all. This 4 team 'playoff' is light years better than what we had before. I'm sure the controversies in the system will drive a push for 8 teams at some point.

8 is what I had/have been saying it should be all along. The P5 conference champions, then back-filled based on some subjective rankings/selection. That's perfect, IMO. 16 teams results in too many games.

 

[Zenophile]

Penn State will not get in to the dance this season. The cards have been dealt. Best case is Rose Bowl. The pundit assholes are scripting it that way. I think it largely has to do with 2 losses vs only 1. And huge massive enormous homer bias generated primarily from anchoring to what they thought should be true in their original rankings. They anchor to their prior beliefs and then justify it after the fact when they look to be wrong. Just look at how the scandal turned out for evidence of anchor bias.

With 4 teams in the current top 10 (including the 2 highest ranked 2-loss teams), the committee has demonstrated great respect for the Big Ten this season. The folks at CFP have consistently & repeatedly made it clear that winning a conference championship carries weight.

Despite what the mindless yappers at ESPN have to say, the winner of the Big Ten conference will absolutely receive due consideration for a playoff berth even with an Ohio State team sitting at #2.

 

[Spitfirex007]

This garbage of best team ruins college football. The best teams don't always compete for national championships. This is why March madness is 10x better then the bowl games. The best teams don't always make the final four or win championships. Same across all sports. They need to put the four most deserving teams in. Period

 

[kickerinaz]

Funny, everyone seems to forget we would actually have to beat Wiscky too. With the Oline injuries....Lets beat Rutgers!

 

[Wexford Buckeye]

This garbage of best team ruins college football. The best teams don't always compete for national championships. This is why March madness is 10x better then the bowl games. The best teams don't always make the final four or win championships. Same across all sports. They need to put the four most deserving teams in. Period

Yeah, but those teams are picked after the regular season. The wacky upsets occur in the tournament. It would be an epic shame if one of the top teams in a power conference needed to go undefeated in order to make the playoffs, while other teams could afford two losses.

 

[AldenT]

Yeah, but those teams are picked after the regular season. The wacky upsets occur in the tournament. It would be an epic shame if one of the top teams in a power conference needed to go undefeated in order to make the playoffs, while other teams could afford two losses.

Then beat us head to head.

UM didn't move with their loss. Bad losses count less than great wins.

The Big10 and Delaney fought for you guys 2 years ago right? Cuz you were conference champs, even with 1 loss more than TCU?

You have a case and should go with a win over UM. But not INSTEAD of the division and conference champ that you played and lost to. That makes no logical sense nor is there a precedent for it.

 

[BoulderFish]

Funny, everyone seems to forget we would actually have to beat Wiscky too. With the Oline injuries....Lets beat Rutgers!

I don't think anyone is forgetting that. We're just playing "what ifs."

Frankly, with our issues on the OL, I'm nervous about each game going forward (though admittedly only very little worried about Rutgers game this weekend), and think it would be a pretty monumental task to beat Wisky (again with out OL health issues).

I'm not going to let that stop me from enjoying the moment and discussing fun playoff-related "what if" scenarios though.

 

[Wexford Buckeye]

Then beat us head to head.

UM didn't move with their loss. Bad losses count less than great wins.

The Big10 and Delaney fought for you guys 2 years ago right? Cuz you were conference champs, even with 1 loss more than TCU?

You have a case and should go with a win over UM. But not INSTEAD of the division and conference champ that you played and lost to. That makes no logical sense nor is there a precedent for it.

Incorrect, that's the whole point. TCU and Baylor both had one loss like OSU. The issue was OSU's mediocre schedule, no quality wins and worst loss to Va Tech that they erased with the 59-0 conference championship win over Wisconsin. I will not nor would I have argued for an OSU team with one more loss than TCU. The conference thing and strength of schedule was all to differentiate between one loss teams in 2014

 

[UncleLar]

and PSU wins the championship game, he would "have to" pick OSU to be ranked higher than PSU because "Ohio State is the better team."

Understand, if both teams go to the championship playoff, all this will mean is that OSU gets to duck Alabama in the opening round.

"Win out, make them pick the team that lost on the field." RUTGERS.

As long as that talking head isn't on the selection committee, his pick is meaningless. If they run this selection committee anywhere near like they run the hoops version of it, they will stick fairly close to their guidelines. If they follow procedure, it almost assures that Penn State gets in over Ohio State. I very much like our chances under that scenario.

 

[AldenT]

Incorrect, that's the whole point. TCU and Baylor both had one loss like OSU. The issue was OSU's mediocre schedule, no quality wins and worst loss to Va Tech that they erased with the 59-0 conference championship win over Wisconsin. I will not nor would I have argued for an OSU team with one more loss than TCU. The conference thing and strength of schedule was all to differentiate between one loss teams in 2014

You're right, that's my bad.

But that strengthens my point that you went because you were CONFERENCE CHAMPS. So here are the 3 criteria we are debating:

Record
Head to Head
Conference Champ

2 out of 3 ain't bad....

I think you SHOULD BE IN THE PLAYOFF if you win out. But not INSTEAD of PSU for winning 2 of the criteria above. You argued your loss to a (terrible) VaTech team in the beginning of the season shouldn't trump you winning the Big10 and getting in....uh, exactly. And Pitt this year has a better resume than VaTech did.

 

[AWS1022]

Baby steps. They had the archaic bowl system, where the boys in blazers dictated all. The Bowl Alliance tried to set up better games. The BCS actually tried to make a championship, warts and all. This 4 team 'playoff' is light years better than what we had before. I'm sure the controversies in the system will drive a push for 8 teams at some point.

How is this system better? Way back in the old days you had like 60 or 70 writers picking and now you have 12. The only thing that's better now is four teams instead of two. If you took either the writers poll or the BCS and took 4 teams you would basically have the same thing. Hoping the right teams win so it all works out is not a better system.

 

[UncleLar]

Currently OSU is #2. If my state school math is correct, there are still 2 slots available behind them.

It doesn't matter where they are now. Everybody starts with a fresh slate when they enter the selection process following the conference championships. All of those conference champions will get a significant resume boost and will have a criteria that Ohio State won't. That means that OSU will almost assuredly drop from that #2 spot. How far they drop is open for discussion but if PSU wins, they will own two criteria over Ohio State and would almost assuredly have to be picked ahead of Ohio State.

 

[dwiz]

Wisconsin is really good and will likely be favored against us. Let's just take this game by game.

 

[PSUFBFAN]

It doesn't matter where they are now. Everybody starts with a fresh slate when they enter the selection process following the conference championships. All of those conference champions will get a significant resume boost and will have a criteria that Ohio State won't. That means that OSU will almost assuredly drop from that #2 spot. How far they drop is open for discussion but if PSU wins, they will own two criteria over Ohio State and would almost assuredly have to be picked ahead of Ohio State.

A voice of sanity among the wilderness of the misguided and mis-informed. Thank you.

 

[lionroar88]

If scUM's QB is done for the season, there is a damn good chance Indiana beats them this Saturday... and it would be awesome to see scUM come out with a chip on their shoulder and then beat tO$U. What would that do the rankings? That would put PSU in the CCG against Wisconsin, and we beat Wisconsin...

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. PSU
4. Washington/Louisville

How about them apples?

 

[BoulderFish]

If scUM's QB is done for the season, there is a damn good chance Indiana beats them this Saturday... and it would be awesome to see scUM come out with a chip on their shoulder and then beat tO$U. What would that do the rankings? That would put PSU in the CCG against Wisconsin, and we beat Wisconsin...

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. PSU
4. Washington/Louisville

How about them apples?

Ha! They would be some super sweet apples!

 

[LionJim]

As long as that talking head isn't on the selection committee, his pick is meaningless. If they run this selection committee anywhere near like they run the hoops version of it, they will stick fairly close to their guidelines. If they follow procedure, it almost assures that Penn State gets in over Ohio State. I very much like our chances under that scenario.

Well, yeah. For what it's worth, this morning I happened to see someone on ESPN saying that if PSU wins the BTC then they're a lock for the playoffs, and that OSU would probably make it too. There's a lot of flux out there.

 

[rudedude]

My response!

 

[marshall23]

Can we win out before weeping and wailing? Six weeks ago, many of those who are thumping their chests about being better than OSU were calling JF a lousy game day coach, who probably was not the guy to take PSU to the next level.
I am as big a PSU fan as the next guy, but come on. Ohio State beat Oklahoma, Nebraska, Wisky and if they beat Michigan and finish with one close loss on the road.....it would not be blasphemy to say they are a tad better than a PSU team that wins out. The last six weeks and the next three (I hope) have been magical. But, I think the CFP Committee must look at the entire body of work. I can see the possibility of both PSU and OSU getting in (although slim), but assuming both win out, OSU is definitely in.

 

[Spitfirex007]

But, I think the CFP Committee must look at the entire body of work. I can see the possibility of both PSU and OSU getting in (although slim), but assuming both win out, OSU is definitely in.

I don't think it's that far fetched at all. Especially if Washington losses another game. Louisville has beaten nobody. Can't see Oklahoma getting in over Big Ten champ. I think it's PSU/Wisc and OSU getting in. Assuming they all win out.

 

[cment]

The ultra accurate Wall Street Journal football prediction machine (i kid) has Wisconsin a 4.01point favorite playing on a neutral field.

http://www.wsj.com/graphics/ncaa-college-football-machine/

 

[Cpeplion]

If scUM's QB is done for the season, there is a damn good chance Indiana beats them this Saturday... and it would be awesome to see scUM come out with a chip on their shoulder and then beat tO$U. What would that do the rankings? That would put PSU in the CCG against Wisconsin, and we beat Wisconsin...

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. PSU
4. Washington/Louisville

How about them apples?

I like that scenario because I would love to see The Game become just another game. I don't think it'll be Washington/Louisville tho..I think both those teams lose another game knocking them out. I think Oklahoma would sneak in there at #4

 

[demlion]

Can we win out before weeping and wailing? Six weeks ago, many of those who are thumping their chests about being better than OSU were calling JF a lousy game day coach, who probably was not the guy to take PSU to the next level.
I am as big a PSU fan as the next guy, but come on. Ohio State beat Oklahoma, Nebraska, Wisky and if they beat Michigan and finish with one close loss on the road.....it would not be blasphemy to say they are a tad better than a PSU team that wins out. The last six weeks and the next three (I hope) have been magical. But, I think the CFP Committee must look at the entire body of work. I can see the possibility of both PSU and OSU getting in (although slim), but assuming both win out, OSU is definitely in.

Body of work? To date our opponents have a slightly better winning percentage than theirs do, and we beat them head to head. If I had to say which team will beat Alabama, I would say "neither." But with a healthy defense we can stop some folks, and our O is just quirky enough to cause them some headaches. The really troubling situation is where we both get in and they get to duck 'bama.

 

[bjf1991]

All the "(il)logical gymnastics" and Circle-Jerking aside:



Within the parameters of the "Four Team Playoff" format......which we all know is a shitty structure (I think):

The current "rankings" make as much or more sense as any "rankings" could.

It is what it is.....and when all the games are played, four teams will move into the "playoffs"

If the selections - when all is said and done - are as defensible as the current ordering......the "Committee" will have done as good a job as anyone could hope for - given the constraints of the system currently in place.





Good Grief - the Circle-Jerk nonsense slopping all over the board from this stuff - its Bizarro World.
The contortions employed to try to create "controversy and injustice" is beyond whacko.

As just ONE example:

The "Top 12" of the "Playoff" Rankings, in order, from #1 to #12.....by number of losses on their record:

0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2

But somehow it is completely "illogical" and indefensible that a 2 loss PSU squad could be "behind" a team with 1 loss

Yea.....that makes sense

 

[CJLion]

Agreed, but that winning percentage is about to take a very big hit, since the two teams we are about to play are as bad as you can get in terms of winning %age. We wont be at the top 2 weeks from now.

If Penn State wins out (including the Big 10 championship over say Wisconsin), we'll have the following to justify our playoff credentials:

1. Champion of the strongest conference in college football this year

2. Champion of the strongest division in college football this year

3. Significant strength of schedule component. Projecting the remaining games for our opponents, there's a good chance these will be some of the final records for some of our key opponents: Ohio State (11-1), Michigan (10-2), Wisconsin (10-3 assuming we play and beat them), Temple (possibly 10-3 and the AAC champion), Pitt (8-4), Iowa (8-4) and Minnesota (8-4). That would be 7 teams with 8 wins or more (and Indiana and Maryland may both finish at 6-6). Don't think any other team in the Top 10 would have that schedule strength and Louisville and Clemson (competing in the relatively weak ACC) certainly would not have the same credentials. (Louisville will not have even won its division let alone its conference assuming Clemson wins out.)

Also, keep in mind that the playoff committee is factoring in that Penn State was decimated by injuries early in the year (especially when we played Michigan) - this is why we were surprisingly ranked #12 with the first CFP poll - and they also factor in how well a team is playing now versus earlier in the year. Penn State would be on a 9-game winning streak having just competed in the toughest division and conference in college football.

Also, it would be very helpful if Washington loses to either (very hot and underrated) Washington State next week or in the PAC12 championship. However, the CFP committee has not shown a lot respect for the PAC12 and it would be difficult to leave out the Big 10 champ (while including Ohio State) and include the PAC12 champ (Washington) given that the committee views the Big 10 as a much strong conference and given Penn State's body of work.

As well, I think it would be really, really difficult for the CFP committee to include Ohio State and exclude Penn State so I think both would be included in the 4-team playoff if they both win out.