Heard another CFB analyst say today that if PSU and OSU both win out,

[Stormmaster]

Maybe so, but the committee doesn't consider margin-of-victory.

If OSU and PSU win out:

SOS (with a win over Whisky): Push
Conf Champs (from the toughest division in football): PSU
Head-to-head: PSU
Record: OSU

It's not so clear cut. The committee 2 years ago gave OSU the benefit of the doubt for winning the Big10 over two other similarly qualified teams. So, the question is, does the value of a head-to-head game trump one more loss to the committee (debatable but I'd say yes), and does a conference championship mean more than not having one (absolutely yes).

I see no scenario where, if we both win out, they get in and we don't. It's not going to happen. Both of us can absolutely go, or just us, but not just them. Zero justification for it practically or historically.

I agree with practically everything in these two posts but we are conveniently overlooking a few metrics the committee also usually looks at:

Overall SOS: Fairly close right now, but we add a win over Rutgers and Wisconsin (in theory) while they add a win over Michigan.

Overall Strength of Record and Game Control: OSU is ranked #3 and #2 respectively in these stats mentioned frequently by the committee. We rank #11 and #45. I think that #45 goes up if we control the entire game these last two games but SOR might go down.

FPI factors is scoring margin which the committee says they don't consider (officially) though some members may choose to factor it. OSU is #3, we are #21.

If you figure Wisconsin losing to us would drop them out of the top 10, that would give us a 1-1 record vs. top 10, same as OSU. Versus top-25, likely they have and extra (big) win on the road at Oklahoma that could still end up in the top 10.

A 3-point loss on the road coming off a road win against a ranked team with us having an extra week to prepare may mitigate the strength of our head-to-head argument.

I think the more likely scenario is they get in at #3 and we get in at #4 if we both win out. I think Louisville is where we should be starting our comparison arguments.

 

[marshall23]

I never said it did. I said "I see no scenario where, if we both win out, they get in and we don't." You're hardly convincing me otherwise.

I don't care if you are convinced. I will say it one more time so even you can understand it. I hope OSU and PSU both get in. However, if both teams "win out" and the committee only chooses ONE.....it will be OSU.

 

[AldenT]

I don't care if you are convinced. I will say it one more time so even you can understand it. I hope OSU and PSU both get in. However, if both teams "win out" and the committee only chooses ONE.....it will be OSU.

There is zero logical or historical basis for you saying that. None. You cite nothing in the committee protocal and simply make things up to put down PSU's chances.

Of course it could happen, anything can, but you're trying to make your point and not even using facts to do so. "Tie-breaker for the Big10 championship".....lol.

Whatever. Done here. Cheers.

 

[Wexford Buckeye]

I agree with practically everything in these two posts but we are conveniently overlooking a few metrics the committee also usually looks at:

Overall SOS: Fairly close right now, but we add a win over Rutgers and Wisconsin (in theory) while they add a win over Michigan.

Overall Strength of Record and Game Control: OSU is ranked #3 and #2 respectively in these stats mentioned frequently by the committee. We rank #11 and #45. I think that #45 goes up if we control the entire game these last two games but SOR might go down.

FPI factors is scoring margin which the committee says they don't consider (officially) though some members may choose to factor it. OSU is #3, we are #21.

If you figure Wisconsin losing to us would drop them out of the top 10, that would give us a 1-1 record vs. top 10, same as OSU. Versus top-25, likely they have and extra (big) win on the road at Oklahoma that could still end up in the top 10.

A 3-point loss on the road coming off a road win against a ranked team with us having an extra week to prepare may mitigate the strength of our head-to-head argument.

I think the more likely scenario is they get in at #3 and we get in at #4 if we both win out. I think Louisville is where we should be starting our comparison arguments.

One small note on the schedule for OSU. Both Wisconsin and PSU were back to back road night games and BOTH Wisconsin and PSU had bye weeks before playing us. Many of us were bitching about that beforehand.

 

[klemman]

I don't see why all the angst about OSU in the playoffs. If it's about winning Conference Champions as the far and away most important nothing else matters criteria, then OSU has no shot- with the exception of a victory over MSU and Michigan while PSU loses in the next two weeks.

If PSU wins the conference, especially with a win over Wisconsin, then OSU might get in as an at-large. But as so many of you have stated, by virtue of the head to head victory, then the N. Lions are obviously the better team. You could check that of as an easy playoff victory. I would think PSU fans would be ecstatic at the prospect.

 

[Howie'81]

I don't care if you are convinced. I will say it one more time so even you can understand it. I hope OSU and PSU both get in. However, if both teams "win out" and the committee only chooses ONE.....it will be OSU.

If they do, there will be controversy like you haven't seen before. The committee's credibility would be called entirely into question.

 

[marshall23]

If they do, there will be controversy like you haven't seen before. The committee's credibility would be called entirely into question.

The point is that the committee's credibility will be called into question by any fan base who feels they were wronged. I doubt Condy Rice is worried about what you and I think of her credibility.

 

[demlion]

Where in the Selection Committee Protocal does it mention divisional tie-breakers? Where does it mention Conference Championships?

First couple paragraphs:


Proposed Selection Process:

Establish a committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie-breaker; apply specific guidelines).


http://d30ratpzqzalg7.cloudfront.ne...Protocol.pdf?tV3FOZ68If3qops3X7XJQFmkEd00PiAY





.

 

[AldenT]

First couple paragraphs:


Proposed Selection Process:

Establish a committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie-breaker; apply specific guidelines).


http://d30ratpzqzalg7.cloudfront.net/CD-drupal-cfp-PROD/s3fs-public/CFP Selection Committee Protocol.pdf?tV3FOZ68If3qops3X7XJQFmkEd00PiAY





.

So they care about conference titles and not divisional tie-breakers within that conference. My point exactly.

 

[coveydidnt]

I still laugh at how they call this a "playoff". Four teams = playoffs? Really? Until they expand to at least eight teams or (hopefully) 16 teams, this is not an actual playoff. D1 football is still the only NCAA sport at any level to not have a playoff determine the national champion. With 5 "power conferences" and only four seats at the table, we still don't know who the best team is in CFB. Sure the 9th or 17th team will argue their case, but expanding the "playoffs" only increases the chance of crowning the true best team who proved it on the field.

Until that time arrives, this is all just still a popularity contest!

For many years until quite recently baseball playoffs were 4 teams and was regarded as best and fairest of all 4 major sports.

 

[bjf1991]

If they do, there will be controversy like you haven't seen before. The committee's credibility would be called entirely into question.

Not even close.

OSU has a better record.....and - FWIW - has been, and remains, more highly ranked by any entity involved in the process (Coaches and Media Polls, "Committee" rankings, etc).....and has a slew of reasonable, logical arguments as to why they should be more highly ranked.

The ONLY people registering even a modicum of discord would be PSU fans. Period.
Whatever "controversy" there would be would be less than 1% of the controversy of 2014 with Baylor and TCU being "jumped".......and that "controversy" lasted about one week.

If, on the other hand, PSU "jumped" OSU.....which ain't gonna' happen if both teams win out.......there would be wailing and gnashing of teeth from coast-to-coast.

That is just common sense.

Would that be logical (for OSU to remain ranked ahead of PSU)?
Of course it would.

Would that be fair?
Who knows? ........ But none of this process is supposed to be "fair" - it is only supposed to be reasonable.

 

[psuro]

We have to win out. RUTGERS

We know that. DEMLION.

 

[dbsteel]

You make good points. I'm just not there yet.

I tend to agree with you. Its a whole season that should be looked at. Everyone has injuries, so while true, I can't use the "we were missing all our linebackers" excuse. A couple of linebackers weren't going to change that game much. We still would have two losses, and got smoked by Michigan, while OSU would have beaten Michigan and only have one loss.

OSU somewhat has it made- they beat Michigan and they still get in without the danger of losing in the Championship game, while we need it to boost our resume. A win in the Championship game would make it close though.

 

[bjf1991]

For many years until quite recently baseball playoffs were 4 teams and was regarded as best and fairest of all 4 major sports.

Four teams made the playoffs.......but EVERY team had their own fate in their hands (ie win more games than the other teams in their division over a 162 game schedule)

COMPLETELY different scenario

 

[bjf1991]

So they care about conference titles and not divisional tie-breakers within that conference. My point exactly.

And they care even more - both obviously and rightfully - about wins and losses

 

[AldenT]

And they care even more - both obviously and rightfully - about wins and losses

We won't know that until after the CCG.

And if that were the case WVU wouldn't be ranked below so many 2-loss and a 3-loss (!) team.

 

[Marylovesthelions]

and PSU wins the championship game, he would "have to" pick OSU to be ranked higher than PSU because "Ohio State is the better team."

Understand, if both teams go to the championship playoff, all this will mean is that OSU gets to duck Alabama in the opening round.

"Win out, make them pick the team that lost on the field." RUTGERS.

No way they dump a conference champion for a team that they beat on the field late in the season.

 

[Marylovesthelions]

Our victory over OSU was not a fluke. Our DL dominated thir OL in the last quarter. They owned them. Without Burnett, we had the superior talent in most positions.

 

[bjf1991]

No way they dump a conference champion for a team that they beat on the field late in the season.

No way they wouldn't (given that scenario).

None at all.

Whatever we might "feel" about it.....its as obvious as "water is wet"

 

[Howie'81]

The point is that the committee's credibility will be called into question by any fan base who feels they were wronged. I doubt Condy Rice is worried about what you and I think of her credibility.

Yes, but not all "wrongs" are equal. This would be a big one.

 

[Howie'81]

Not even close.

OSU has a better record.....and - FWIW - has been, and remains, more highly ranked by any entity involved in the process (Coaches and Media Polls, "Committee" rankings, etc).....and has a slew of reasonable, logical arguments as to why they should be more highly ranked.

The ONLY people registering even a modicum of discord would be PSU fans. Period.
Whatever "controversy" there would be would be less than 1% of the controversy of 2014 with Baylor and TCU being "jumped".......and that "controversy" lasted about one week.

If, on the other hand, PSU "jumped" OSU.....which ain't gonna' happen if both teams win out.......there would be wailing and gnashing of teeth from coast-to-coast.

That is just common sense.

Would that be logical (for OSU to remain ranked ahead of PSU)?
Of course it would.

Would that be fair?
Who knows? ........ But none of this process is supposed to be "fair" - it is only supposed to be reasonable.

Couldn't disagree with you more. We shall see.

 

[marshall23]

Yes, but not all "wrongs" are equal. This would be a big one.

It would only be big to PSU. We don't generate a great deal of sympathy lately.

 

[bjf1991]

Yes, but not all "wrongs" are equal. This would be a big one.

You're not serious.......are you?

 

[marshall23]

You're not serious.......are you?

I doubt there would be outrage at OSU or Pitt.

 

[Newlionfan]

It would only be big to PSU. We don't generate a great deal of sympathy lately.

If you are bringing that sh*t up, then you shouldn't be allowed to consider yourself as part of 'we'! Or are you one of those who think 'we are lucky just to be playing'?

 

[klemman]

Our victory over OSU was not a fluke. Our DL dominated thir OL in the last quarter. They owned them. Without Burnett, we had the superior talent in most positions.

With PSU's superior talent at every position you should be making every argument possible to get OSU into the playoffs. If you meet up again you can chalk up one easy victory for the N. Lions.

 

[Marylovesthelions]

My point is that many said we were just lucky but we beat the crap out if their OL in crunch time and got back in the game. We actually over powered their DL in a very big way.

 

[bjf1991]

My point is that many said we were just lucky but we beat the crap out if their OL in crunch time and got back in the game. We actually over powered their DL in a very big way.

Penn State won 53% of the snaps against OSU
So it was most certainly ANYTHING OTHER THAN a "fluky" victory
While there were several individual PLAYS - for both sides - that might be considered "fluky", the game itself, and the outcome of the game, certainly was not.


In particular - as MLL mentions - PSU's defensive front consistently won their match ups (but OSU certainly had areas within the game were they had the far better of the play)
It was a very good, competitive game
PSU played very well, and (deservedly) won........end of story

 

[Howie'81]

You're not serious.......are you?

Yeah...I am.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

I agree with practically everything in these two posts but we are conveniently overlooking a few metrics the committee also usually looks at:

Overall SOS: Fairly close right now, but we add a win over Rutgers and Wisconsin (in theory) while they add a win over Michigan.

Overall Strength of Record and Game Control: OSU is ranked #3 and #2 respectively in these stats mentioned frequently by the committee. We rank #11 and #45. I think that #45 goes up if we control the entire game these last two games but SOR might go down.

FPI factors is scoring margin which the committee says they don't consider (officially) though some members may choose to factor it. OSU is #3, we are #21.

If you figure Wisconsin losing to us would drop them out of the top 10, that would give us a 1-1 record vs. top 10, same as OSU. Versus top-25, likely they have and extra (big) win on the road at Oklahoma that could still end up in the top 10.

A 3-point loss on the road coming off a road win against a ranked team with us having an extra week to prepare may mitigate the strength of our head-to-head argument.

I think the more likely scenario is they get in at #3 and we get in at #4 if we both win out. I think Louisville is where we should be starting our comparison arguments.

You forgot to list that the CFB Playoff Selection Committee specifically lists Conference Championships and Head-to-Head as specific criteria they grant weighting to - HERE IS A LINK TO THEIR OWN CRITERIA and the excerpt of specific criteria and the order they list them:

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

PSU holds the Championship Advantage, SOS is close to a push, but lets say it goes slightly to daO$U, Head-to-Head goes to PSU. I believe both PSU and daO$U would both go it they both win out. But there is precedent for dropping the ranking of the team that does not play "Championship Weekend" and I believe PSU, the B1G Champion, would get the higher seed (2 or 3 with the ACC Champion, likely Clemson, getting the other - Clemson would probably get 2 as they are higher now and WOULD PLAY CHAMPIONSHIP WEEKEND as well). That would put PSU at #3 and daO$U at #4. I believe this scenario is even more certain if U-dub loses a 2nd game. If Wisconsin won the B1G, I think two B1G teams go on the strength of the conference, but I think daO$U might get the higher seed based on their head-to-head win and better SOS (better wins) which would be enough to offset the Wisconsin B1G Championship.

 

[RTLH]

That would be divine justice if you ask me and with Delaney's two beloved cash cows out of the playoffs, the push for an eight-team playoff would begin in earnest.

Let me tell you one thing. Indiana ain't beating Michigan. Spreight or no Spreight.

 

[Franklin_Restores_TheTradition]

Let me tell you one thing. Indiana ain't beating Michigan. Spreight or no Spreight.

Believe his name is Wilton Speight....BTN's "fan poll" on B1G Football and Beyond today registered Indiana as the most likely upset of the four they listed (Indiana-scUM, MSU-daO$U, Rutgers-PSU and Wisconsin) - 55% believed Indiana over scUM was most likely upset, think MSU over daO$U was next in low 20s and the other two received 10% or less of vote. Given that Indiana took scUM to OT last year, not sure why you would say they have no chance to beat them especially given the fact that scUM will be starting a new QB and were very beat up last week.

 

[colt21]

Of course, in a playoff scenario. But not so much in the regular season, where the whole season counts. I'm not knocking the Lions. They beat OSU fair and square. They win many tiebreakers against OSU, one game, division, and conference championship. But it seems the way they do things nationally, those two losses overcome the good win.

This is NOT a "Playoff" in any way shape or form
This is just the same BS popularity contest as score except with 4 teams instead of 2

There is no way a no -champion should get in period

I think OSU is a great team but this system is and always will be bullsh!t until the conference championships are considered the quarter finals for the "playoffs".


But then again the shills couldn't make zillions of extra dollars talking about a BS system if we had a normal system

That is all

 

[Royal_Coaster]

PSU can only win the Big Ten if a tie breaker is employed. Otherwise, assuming both teams win out, OSU and PSU would have to settle it on the field.....which isn't feasible.
Assuming the committee will give PSU consideration over OSU is based on PSU winning a title they contested for as a result of a TIEBREAKER with OSU.

You keep tossing out the word tiebreaker like it's a dirty word, or somehow it minimalizes PSU's record. Say Penn State wins out, and UM beats OSU. Who wins the division? Of course, you'll say UM-- and why? Because although they would have identical 8-1 records, UM won the head to head meeting. In other words, they win a tiebreaker.