LOVE the debate of whether a match is a Tossup or Not! It's semantics, which is a hobby of mine anyway. However annoying it is to linguaphobes, Semantics is a vital component of Debate.
I simplify it like this: setting these dual matchup odds centers around whether Wrestler A can be said to be favored and, if so, by how much. I like to leave room for plenty of debate around whether a favored wrestler could still lose (of course he could; it's wrestling after all!), so I keep the meaning of Tossup very strictly defined: a Tossup is only left for situations where even suggesting that one wrestler be favored feels unfit.
So here's mine:
125 Suriano favored over Picc, DEC 3-0. I'll listen to you argue that Picc might be able to beat him, but I can't hear you call it a Tossup.
133 Brock favored over Cortez, DEC (but I wouldn't beef with you if you set it at MD); 3-3.
141 Heil favored over Gulibon, DEC. I can buy any argument against Gulibon at this point, and I'm keeping my promise not to ever sleep on (get it?) Dean Heil again, but come on. Heil's bonus rate in his non-redshirting seasons is 36% on 27 wins and 27% on 32 wins. Dude wins, not disputed--but he doesn't bonus guys as tough as Gulibon. Now, could Gulibon lay down & get decked like he did at Keystone? Sure, but how can you call yourself reasonable if you set this as Bonus? 3-6 OKST
149 zPain favored over Collica, MD. Collica hasn't been bonused since Realbuto mauled him 17 nil in 2015 STL and his only other Bonus L that season was when Dylan Alton decked him at the Scuffle. Last year, the worst of his 9 L's was 6-1 to Sorenson, while the other 8 were all <=3pts. So I get that he's gotten tough and is really hard to score on. But put that next to the run zPain's been on since Sorenson 'held' him to a 4pt shutout in the B1G Final? I dunno, I guess I'd listen to it being set at only a DEC, but I'm setting it, quite reasonably, as zPain favored by Bonus. 7-6 PSU.
157 Nolf favored over JoJo, MD. Same reasoning here. Yes, JoJo held him to a DEC once, but he also couldn't stop an 11-3 major in MSG. I'd listen to setting as a DEC, but I'm not gonna. 11-6 PSU
165 Vincenzo vs Chandler Rogers, Tossup. I think this one's pretty hard to argue against being a tossup, isn't it? With these two resumes, including Eye Tests in non-folkstyle results, since Cenzo has so few D1 results yet? I'd listen to a case made for either to win, but not to be favored. But to give a team score, we have to pick, so let's give a DEC to Rogers to see how close it can get. 11-9 PSU
174 Crutchmer over Morelli DEC. I'd listen to Crutchmer being set as strongly favored. Half of Morelli's last 6 L's have been by Bonus after all, but I haven't see enough of Healthy Crutchmer yet this year to set it as such. 11-12 OKST
184 Nickal over Boyd, DEC. Nickal's too good and consistent and Boyd too inconsistent to set this any other way, right? I mean, could Nickal get too cray and lose? Sure, but setting odds, how can you not say he's favored? 14-12 PSU.
197 McCutcheon vs Weigel, Tossup. Two R12 finishers here, one with multiple W's over AAs (Mouse: Dudley 3x, Zavatsky 2x, Ophir Bernstein, Sammy Brooks, Miklus), one with 1 W over an AA (Weigel: Pat Downey). New weight for Mouse and Weigel held Pfarr to a DEC already this year, so for the sake of more team-race-closeness, I'll give it to Weigel. 14-15 OkSt.
285 Nevills over A. Schaffer, Tossup. I'm more inclined to set Nevills as the favorite, based merely on his being a natural HWT and Schaffer bumping up from 197, but I just spent 10mins looking at their records, and Nevills' big Ws at the time, got weaker & weaker as Riley Shaw & Denzel Dejournette never earned AA. While Schaffer's W over 2x AA Kroells already this year looks good on paper. By the time these two meet, it'll be easier to set Nevills as the fave, as 5 dudes ahead of him in current rankings are still on his schedule (Snyder, Medberry, Stolle, Kroells & Black). For now, we'll call it a Tossup and give the W to Nevills.
Which, in a very favorable to OkSt setup, leaves PSU with a tight 17-15 dual win.
Switching over from Odds-setting to personal Picks, I'd go with Cenzo & McCutcheon to get Ws and for zPain, Nolf & Nickal to out-bonus whatever Brock and/or Crutchmer could come up with, so that the final score looks more like 23-9 than 17-15.
As has been the case many times during this Cael-led run, bad things would have to happen at too many weights for PSU, for OkSt to have a chance to win, heading into the final bout.
