I’m calling it now…

[nerfstate]

I dunno, Brands (and pretty much all Hawk starters) is a tough out 3-2 vs #2 Labriola as an example. I have no doubt in CStar's ability to win the match, but bonus points are gonna require 7 minutes of pace. Unless Nelson gets toothy. Then Carter might actually kill him.

 

[slushhead]

. . . Unless Nelson gets toothy. Then Carter might actually kill him.

Cue up the music!

 

[Aardvark86]

I dunno, Brands (and pretty much all Hawk starters) is a tough out 3-2 vs #2 Labriola as an example. I have no doubt in CStar's ability to win the match, but bonus points are gonna require 7 minutes of pace. Unless Nelson gets toothy. Then Carter might actually kill him.

This is the thing. When I watch Carter's whole body of work, I draw a moderately disturbing inference that this is a kid who could be a really mean asshole when he wants to be, just because. I have a sneaky instinct that will happen on Friday. Call it a hunch.

 

[js8793]

As I said, Nelson has never wrestled anybody like this year's Starocci edition. Major is a minimum, a tech or fall would not be surprising.
A Brands attitude that would ignite that special Starocci response would entertain me.

oh yeah definitely dude. nelson brands couldn't possibly match *checks notes* Julien Broderson's 5-1 dec loss to Starocci this year.

you all realize he hasn't wrestled a single NCAA qualifier this year right? he's been lighting up bad competition like he should.

delusional lol

 

[McScoreley]

I think Bartlett has a chance for an upset if he can be within 1 score in the third. If Woods does get a TD in the first, he has to be prepared for his arm bars and wrist tilts. He is very fast with them and can get nearfall before the opponent sees it coming.

I know it seems blasphemous to say Bartlett can be turned if he never was at 149 but off the top of my head, I don't think any 149 has ever tried to turn him. There aren't as many top hammers at 149 so Woods does present a new challenge.

 

[eddy line]

I think Bartlett has a chance for an upset if he can be within 1 score in the third. If Woods does get a TD in the first, he has to be prepared for his arm bars and wrist tilts. He is very fast with them and can get nearfall before the opponent sees it coming.

I know it seems blasphemous to say Bartlett can be turned if he never was at 149 but off the top of my head, I don't think any 149 has ever tried to turn him. There aren't as many top hammers at 149 so Woods does present a new challenge.

When did Woods develop such an effective tilt? He's quite good with it. I don’t remember that being part of his arsenal prior to this year.

 

[McScoreley]

When did Woods develop such an effective tilt? He's quite good with it. I don’t remember that being part of his arsenal prior to this year.

No doubt working with Spencer probably helped a bit but Woods was a top hammer at Stanford. He bonused his first 3 wins including AA Composto at NCAAs last year. Also majored Grant Willits (4th placer last year)

 

[Random4598375]

I think he means Cael will send Shindeldecker out in Steen’s place. I didn’t watch Steen’s match against Medley yet, but sounded like maybe his effort wasn’t great

Call me crazy, but it might not even be safe to send out a guy who was losing to D3 wrestlers early this season to wrestle against a Spencer Lee who is clearly angry and laying waste to everything in his path.

 

[Random4598375]

I would love to see a forfeit at 125. Iowa feeds off his big starts so it would take away some of their momentum right out of the gate. Not sure the coaches would go for it though.

This is why Iowa should always weigh in two at 125, so that if think you want to duck him, you're just going to see him at 133 instead. Although, frankly, I would do anything possible to get Spencer to wrestle 133 in this match, just as a wrestling fan who would be in attendance for such a legendary matchup.

 

[Aardvark86]

This is why Iowa should always weigh in two at 125, so that if think you want to duck him, you're just going to see him at 133 instead. Although, frankly, I would do anything possible to get Spencer to wrestle 133 in this match, just as a wrestling fan who would be in attendance for such a legendary matchup.

...because that would be so Cael-like.

On the other hand, I sorta like this, because if done as a surprise, it would probably sent TnT into a live TV tantrum that would make a 2 year old proud to be their father.

 

[STAND with PRIDE]

No doubt working with Spencer probably helped a bit but Woods was a top hammer at Stanford. He bonused his first 3 wins including AA Composto at NCAAs last year. Also majored Grant Willits (4th placer last year)

Working with Spencer?? No wonder Ayala’s mom threw the Twitter tantrum.

 

[Random4598375]

...because that would be so Cael-like.

On the other hand, I sorta like this, because if done as a surprise, it would probably sent TnT into a live TV tantrum that would make a 2 year old proud to be their father.

To be clear, I don't think there's a chance in hell that Cael actually does try to forfeit 125 to duck Spencer. It'll be Steen, and he'll take his medicine like a good soldier.

 

[js8793]

No doubt working with Spencer probably helped a bit but Woods was a top hammer at Stanford. He bonused his first 3 wins including AA Composto at NCAAs last year. Also majored Grant Willits (4th placer last year)

yeah some hawk fans were making this mistake earlier this year. top was always real's best position and he's always had that tilt. it's definitely gotten better each year though.

 

[Junglekitty]

What an absolute great matchup. This one could be a blow out, or super close. I can see each match going a few different ways.

125: Iowa heavy heavy favorite
133: PSU heavy heavy favorite
141: Iowa favorite
149: Iowa lean
157: If Haines, I would say PSU lean
165: Iowa lean
174: PSU heavy heavy favorite
184: PSU heavy heavy favorite
197: PSU lean
285: PSU lean

With that said, half the matches are swing matches, 1 match for Iowa is almost a guarantee, and 3 matches for PSU are almost a guarantee. Yes, the matches still have to be wrestled and anything can happen, see Brooks vs Coleman. And 1 match for Iowa that I would say its more 60-40 instead of 55-45/50-50.

Here is my breakdown:
125: Lee will most likely win by fall 6-0 Iowa
133: I think RBY majors Teske. Teske just got back and who knows if he's ready to go or not, but if its anyone else, RBY could possibly push it to a tech. I'm going to say Teske does make the run and RBY gets the major. 6-4 Iowa
141: Real has looked super impressive, especially from the top position. I don't however remember a time BB has been turned. I don't think a BB win is a huge upset, but it would be an upset. I like BB's chances the second time around, but for now, I think Real wins by dec but its a close match. 9-4 Iowa

Here are where things get super interesting

149: Lean to Murin based on rankings and experience. I could make a case for either guy to win here. I think SVN has enough tools in his belt already to beat Murin. Iowa could very well go up 12-4, but SVN comes out on top to make it 7-6 PSU
157: I will give credit where credit is due, Cobe has looked good. He's pretty funky and has put some guys on their back out of nowhere. I think the coaches make it official and send out Haines especially after Cobe beating Model 3-2. Haines continues the roll 10-6 PSU
165: Kennedy and Facundo have their rematch. I think Kennedy comes out on top again but its closer that at WNO. Both have guys have looked good so far this year, and I could see us getting free wrestling here with it going extra. Facundo putting on a good ride could really tip the scale in his favor. My prediction right now is Kennedy wins a close one 10-9 PSU
174: One of the weights PSU is really assuming a win. Bonus points here would be huge. It is in Brands DNA to be tough, and he is. Not sure he's ever given up bonus, but if he has, it can't be more than a few times. So IMO it comes down to Carter. Can he impose his will on Brands and get to his stuff without getting slowed down. I don't think it is all that close, and I don't think he will be in the position of Labs. However, I think Brands at 74 is good enough to keep Carter to a decision. I still see it being a 5-6 point match, but I don't think he gets the major. 13-9 PSU
184: Another weight PSU is assuming a win, and I think it comes more than likely with bonus which is huge in any match, but especially true here. If I am Cael, I am telling Brooks and Carter for that matter, for takedowns and releases until we lock up the major. A major at either one of these weights can put the match out of reach. Aaron should be rested up, and ready to put on a show for the BJC. He gets the major 19-9 PSU.
197: Dean looked good against Caffey. Warner didn't go against Amos, and beat Allred 3-2. I have no inside information of why he didn't go against Amos. Could be dealing with a small injury, could be under the weather. If its either of those and he is not 100%, that makes his job 10x more difficult. If it was just a maintenance day, that makes Dean's job harder. With what seems to be Dean firing on all cylinders after the Caffey match, I'm going with a decision for Dean 22-9 PSU.
285: What a weight class, and a treat that back to back weekends, the main event is a true main event. While all these matches will be great matches, this one has turned into a true "rivalry". I don't want to say I was disappointed in Kerk and Parris, but Kerk seemed a little off late, resulting in the bad shot. Hopefully that's not the case here. I think Kerk rebounds nicely and hopefully the gap widens. Kerk by dec 25-9.

We Are!

 

[jmadden1998]

What an absolute great matchup. This one could be a blow out, or super close. I can see each match going a few different ways.

125: Iowa heavy heavy favorite
133: PSU heavy heavy favorite
141: Iowa favorite
149: Iowa lean
157: If Haines, I would say PSU lean
165: Iowa lean
174: PSU heavy heavy favorite
184: PSU heavy heavy favorite
197: PSU lean
285: PSU lean

With that said, half the matches are swing matches, 1 match for Iowa is almost a guarantee, and 3 matches for PSU are almost a guarantee. Yes, the matches still have to be wrestled and anything can happen, see Brooks vs Coleman. And 1 match for Iowa that I would say its more 60-40 instead of 55-45/50-50.

Here is my breakdown:
125: Lee will most likely win by fall 6-0 Iowa
133: I think RBY majors Teske. Teske just got back and who knows if he's ready to go or not, but if its anyone else, RBY could possibly push it to a tech. I'm going to say Teske does make the run and RBY gets the major. 6-4 Iowa
141: Real has looked super impressive, especially from the top position. I don't however remember a time BB has been turned. I don't think a BB win is a huge upset, but it would be an upset. I like BB's chances the second time around, but for now, I think Real wins by dec but its a close match. 9-4 Iowa

Here are where things get super interesting

149: Lean to Murin based on rankings and experience. I could make a case for either guy to win here. I think SVN has enough tools in his belt already to beat Murin. Iowa could very well go up 12-4, but SVN comes out on top to make it 7-6 PSU
157: I will give credit where credit is due, Cobe has looked good. He's pretty funky and has put some guys on their back out of nowhere. I think the coaches make it official and send out Haines especially after Cobe beating Model 3-2. Haines continues the roll 10-6 PSU
165: Kennedy and Facundo have their rematch. I think Kennedy comes out on top again but its closer that at WNO. Both have guys have looked good so far this year, and I could see us getting free wrestling here with it going extra. Facundo putting on a good ride could really tip the scale in his favor. My prediction right now is Kennedy wins a close one 10-9 PSU
174: One of the weights PSU is really assuming a win. Bonus points here would be huge. It is in Brands DNA to be tough, and he is. Not sure he's ever given up bonus, but if he has, it can't be more than a few times. So IMO it comes down to Carter. Can he impose his will on Brands and get to his stuff without getting slowed down. I don't think it is all that close, and I don't think he will be in the position of Labs. However, I think Brands at 74 is good enough to keep Carter to a decision. I still see it being a 5-6 point match, but I don't think he gets the major. 13-9 PSU
184: Another weight PSU is assuming a win, and I think it comes more than likely with bonus which is huge in any match, but especially true here. If I am Cael, I am telling Brooks and Carter for that matter, for takedowns and releases until we lock up the major. A major at either one of these weights can put the match out of reach. Aaron should be rested up, and ready to put on a show for the BJC. He gets the major 19-9 PSU.
197: Dean looked good against Caffey. Warner didn't go against Amos, and beat Allred 3-2. I have no inside information of why he didn't go against Amos. Could be dealing with a small injury, could be under the weather. If its either of those and he is not 100%, that makes his job 10x more difficult. If it was just a maintenance day, that makes Dean's job harder. With what seems to be Dean firing on all cylinders after the Caffey match, I'm going with a decision for Dean 22-9 PSU.
285: What a weight class, and a treat that back to back weekends, the main event is a true main event. While all these matches will be great matches, this one has turned into a true "rivalry". I don't want to say I was disappointed in Kerk and Parris, but Kerk seemed a little off late, resulting in the bad shot. Hopefully that's not the case here. I think Kerk rebounds nicely and hopefully the gap widens. Kerk by dec 25-9.

We Are!

They give 6 point majors for Brooks at home? Just kidding. 😃😃 Looks like you fudged the math for Brooks at 184. Final would be 23-9

 

[nitlion6]

oh yeah definitely dude. nelson brands couldn't possibly match *checks notes* Julien Broderson's 5-1 dec loss to Starocci this year.

you all realize he hasn't wrestled a single NCAA qualifier this year right? he's been lighting up bad competition like he should.

delusional lol

Well, I am really liking the chances of a Starocci bonus beatdown now. If you say so and considering your comfort level with being wrong, the chances are fairly high Starocci somehow chalks up a 7 team point victory. Must be going to leave an impression.

 

[mcpat]

I wouldn’t call predicting a bonus point win from the #1 ranked two-time defending champ at home in front of 16,000 fans over a guy that is 4-3 on the season “delusional”.

But I’m such a homer, what do I know?

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

They give 6 point majors for Brooks at home? Just kidding. 😃😃 Looks like you fudged the math for Brooks at 184. Final would be 23-9

Nope, it should have been 23-12 as she had squawkeyes +6 @25, +3 @41 and +3 @65. PSU +4 @ 33 and 84, and +3 @ 49, 57, 74, 97 and HWT.

 

[CJFisJoePaII]

I wouldn’t call predicting a bonus point win from the #1 ranked two-time defending champ at home in front of 16,000 fans over a guy that is 4-3 on the season “delusional”.

But I’m such a homer, what do I know?

Brands is elite with a lot of bad luck - haven't you heard? God, you really are delusional !! 😁

 

[johnstownsteel]

I'm really interested to see how Murin rolls this week. Will he wrestle defensively and try to steal one in the 3rd? Or will he try to put on a show for the folks coming up I99 from Ebensburg to see him wrestle?

 

[nitlion6]

I'm really interested to see how Murin rolls this week. Will he wrestle defensively and try to steal one in the 3rd? Or will he try to put on a show for the folks coming up I99 from Ebensburg to see him wrestle?

He will wrestle like he always does. With a ton of pushing and hand fighting. If SVN let's Max push him around and towards the edge Max will sneak a shot in there. A 1 or 2 point win for Max is pouring it on. However, as I have posted elsewhere SVN is probably a bit stronger than Max and his gas tank is as big if not bigger. This might go to OT, but SVN will score at least 2 more points than Max.
I would also think a sold out BJC match between PSU and Iowa will juice SVN as much as Max getting to wrestle at home in front of friends and family.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

He will wrestle like he always does.

I am putting the O/U on blood time stoppages at 3.0 for this match, if Max Murin wrestles as he always does.

 

[slushhead]

I'm really interested to see how Murin rolls this week. Will he wrestle defensively and try to steal one in the 3rd? Or will he try to put on a show for the folks coming up I99 from Ebensburg to see him wrestle?

I understand and have no issue with you having a bit of a soft spot for Murin . . . but if the rumors about Nelson are true and Tom’s post-match airing of grievances against Assad is any indication, Max will be crucified if he deviates from Iowa style. Patience is running a little thin right now, I imagine . . .

But then again, maybe Max sees the light and says eff it, I’m wrestling. 😉

 

[nitlion6]

I understand and have no issue with you having a bit of a soft spot for Murin . . . but if the rumors about Nelson are true and Tom’s post-match airing of grievances against Assad is any indication, Max will be crucified if he deviates from Iowa style. Patience is running a little thin right now, I imagine . . .

But then again, maybe Max sees the light and says eff it, I’m wrestling. 😉

The style is beat into them from day 1. Max's increased intensity will manifest itself simply. He will push and shove harder.

Hell, it took Kemerer 17 years to realize it was time to take a break from Iowa. Max will learn to love life again, as soon as he is breathing someone else's air.

If the chance ever presents itself enjoy a conversation with Gilman.

 

[jmadden1998]

The style is beat into them from day 1. Max's increased intensity will manifest itself simply. He will push and shove harder.

Hell, it took Kemerer 17 years to realize it was time to take a break from Iowa. Max will learn to love life again, as soon as he is breathing someone else's air.

If the chance ever presents itself enjoy a conversation with Gilman.

 

[nitlion6]

View embedded media

Now come on. You know damn well my feelings were plain as day clear before that post.

 

[KCLion]

I understand and have no issue with you having a bit of a soft spot for Murin . . . but if the rumors about Nelson are true and Tom’s post-match airing of grievances against Assad is any indication, Max will be crucified if he deviates from Iowa style. Patience is running a little thin right now, I imagine . . .

But then again, maybe Max sees the light and says eff it, I’m wrestling. 😉

Actually, Murin has been scoring a lot of bonus this year compared to years past.

 

[82bordeaux]

It's hard not to like Max Murin. He wrestles with as much heart as anyone every time he steps on the mat. Yes, he is a product of his environment for the last 5 years, but he goes hard every time out. It is going to b e a war with SVN because he won't give ground either when it comes to hand fighting.
I'm all in on SVN getting to Saturday night in Tulsa, but I'd love to see Max Murin go out with a podium finish. No one on that Iowa team deserves it more.

 

[js8793]

I wouldn’t call predicting a bonus point win from the #1 ranked two-time defending champ at home in front of 16,000 fans over a guy that is 4-3 on the season “delusional”.

But I’m such a homer, what do I know?

bonus isn’t delusional. bonus as the “minimum” like he claimed is delusional. far more likely starocci wins 3-1 than techs him.

 

[slushhead]

Actually, Murin has been scoring a lot of bonus this year compared to years past.

While he has already reached a “career high” in single-season bonus victories (n = 10) according to the post-Nebraska presser, let’s see who he has and has not bonused this season . . .

Bonused
Chaz Hallmark
Matt Williams (not the baseball player)
Matt Laurie
Kaleb Burgess
Ryan Vigil
Adam Allard
Alek Martin
Kevon Davenport (RIP)
Trey Kruse
Dayne Morton

Not Bonused
Joel Jesuroga* (W 8-3)
Caleb Rathjen* (W 7-4)
#12 Doug Zapf (W 6-4)
#6 Paniro Johnson (L 3-1)
#4 Yahya Thomas (L 3-2)
#2 Austin Gomez (L 5-3)

*Teammate

I think Murin was hampered by a bum
elbow much of last season and put on more size since then. I would sure hope he could get after it against the guys in that first list.

In the second list, I believe those scores against the ranked guys are indicative of where we’ll end up this Friday. Not all of the matches are fresh in my memory, but I do not believe he was making a lot of committed shots against the ranked guys.

As we know, quality of opponent makes a difference in the risk-reward analysis for match approach, and history says we’ll see a lot of rough-and-tough collar ties with hips back from Murin. The mantra is to wear a guy down for 6:30, then take your shot when, presumably, the opponent is tired and presents less of a risk to counter your committed shot.

I don’t see Murin turning SVN from top (or really even trying), and Murin is too 2-dimensional in his neutral offense to risk a lot of shot-taking on a guy with superior lateral movement. He has to stick to the usual plan against SVN, or he’ll get burned.

TnT hate tough scrambling.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Actually, Murin has been scoring a lot of bonus this year compared to years past.

Give a salute to the Soldier Salute for that

 

[jmadden1998]

Now come on. You know damn well my feelings were plain as day clear before that post.

I know. I’ve read the other 500 posts where you pile on about how TnT make all Iowa wrestlers hate wrestling. Just wanted to highlight it for any newbies on here.

 

[KCLion]

While he has already reached a “career high” in single-season bonus victories (n = 10) according to the post-Nebraska presser, let’s see who he has and has not bonused this season . . .

Bonused
Chaz Hallmark
Matt Williams (not the baseball player)
Matt Laurie
Kaleb Burgess
Ryan Vigil
Adam Allard
Alek Martin
Kevon Davenport (RIP)
Trey Kruse
Dayne Morton

Not Bonused
Joel Jesuroga* (W 8-3)
Caleb Rathjen* (W 7-4)
#12 Doug Zapf (W 6-4)
#6 Paniro Johnson (L 3-1)
#4 Yahya Thomas (L 3-2)
#2 Austin Gomez (L 5-3)

*Teammate

I think Murin was hampered by a bum
elbow much of last season and put on more size since then. I would sure hope he could get after it against the guys in that first list.

In the second list, I believe those scores against the ranked guys are indicative of where we’ll end up this Friday. Not all of the matches are fresh in my memory, but I do not believe he was making a lot of committed shots against the ranked guys.

As we know, quality of opponent makes a difference in the risk-reward analysis for match approach, and history says we’ll see a lot of rough-and-tough collar ties with hips back from Murin. The mantra is to wear a guy down for 6:30, then take your shot when, presumably, the opponent is tired and presents less of a risk to counter your committed shot.

I don’t see Murin turning SVN from top (or really even trying), and Murin is too 2-dimensional in his neutral offense to risk a lot of shot-taking on a guy with superior lateral movement. He has to stick to the usual plan against SVN, or he’ll get burned.

TnT hate tough scrambling.

Agreed, I was just commenting that he had a lot of bonus wins and likely wrestled the same quality (or lack of quality) guys in a lot of previous years matches.

 

[a_mshaffer]

It's hard not to like Max Murin. He wrestles with as much heart as anyone every time he steps on the mat. Yes, he is a product of his environment for the last 5 years, but he goes hard every time out. It is going to b e a war with SVN because he won't give ground either when it comes to hand fighting.
I'm all in on SVN getting to Saturday night in Tulsa, but I'd love to see Max Murin go out with a podium finish. No one on that Iowa team deserves it more.

it will be interesting to see SVNs reaction when Max throws a hard club/tie off the bat...I can call that early action!