Let's get real about Franklin

PSU2UNC

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As a football coach, JF is Steve Spurrier.
Here is Spurrier's resume at Florida:

  • Won one national championship (1996), and played for another (1995).
  • Won six SEC championships (1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2000).
  • Named SEC Coach of the Year five times (1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1996)
If that's what we have to look forward to from JF, I'd certainly take that.
 

PSU2UNC

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Perhaps you might be right, no doubt some would agree.

That does not change the fact that you are wrong once again. And as you tell us, you always admit when you are wrong and apologize, even though it is extremely rare according to you. We've seen you make such errors on a regular basis yet I cannot find one instance of you saying "I was wrong" or anything remotely similar.

Please point out that "paid to win games" clause in his contract. You did say that he was "paid to win games", right? That really isn't true is it?
Are you seriously disputing that college sports coaches are not paid to win games????

I don't think his contract is public information BUT we know that he gets bonuses for making it to bowl games which requires winning games.

So I am 100% correct (proof below) that he gets paid to win games (among other things).


I will wait for you to admit you were wrong and to apologize for insulting me.
 

PSU2UNC

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Hope you don’t parse your stats in your professional life like you parse words here. 😂
You are using the word parse as if it has negative connotations. It does not. A lot of my job involves parsing information.
 

NOVABuck45

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Similar to my thoughts. Feel like he was a great hire, had us getting there and then a step back. We are moving back in that direction again.

Realistically we aren't getting over the hump until we can recruit near Ohio St's level. The rest of the league combined has less talent on the field than Ohio St. So their coaching can underperform as they have for the last 5 years or so but they can still dominate the conference. They've lost a lot of games that they had no business losing like getting blown out by Purdue a couple of years ago. But what's worse is they've repeatedly demonstrated that they cannot legitimately compete in the playoffs despite having equal talent to Alabama and Georgia.

That said, it’s enough of a talent differential that only PSU or Michigan have a chance at winning the BIG10 every few years and everyone else only once in blue moon.

Interestingly, minus 4 turnovers, we were better than them on Saturday. We had more yards and if we played cleaner, that was a W. Our talent level should not have allowed us to be there but Day had a terrible game plan. We actually outcoached Ohio St despite our fans criticism. Just like Harbaugh outcoached Day last year and so did Oregon.

Our last 5 years:

13-1 (#3)
13-1 (#3)
7-1 (#2)
11-2 (#6)
8-0 (#2)

Man, underperforming really sucks.

We dominated Clemson in the 2020 playoffs. Should have beat them in the 2019 playoffs (harmed in large part by the absurd reversal of Jeff Okudah's scoop and score). Obviously won the first playoff in 2014. That still accounts for 3 more playoff wins than the rest of the Big Ten combined. As many as OSU fans would ideally like? No. But I'm okay with where we are as a program. *shrugs*
 

Online Persona

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Our last 5 years:

13-1 (#3)
13-1 (#3)
7-1 (#2)
11-2 (#6)
8-0 (#2)

Man, underperforming really sucks.

We dominated Clemson in the 2020 playoffs. Should have beat them in the 2019 playoffs (harmed in large part by the absurd reversal of Jeff Okudah's scoop and score). Obviously won the first playoff in 2014. That still accounts for 3 more playoff wins than the rest of the Big Ten combined. As many as OSU fans would ideally like? No. But I'm okay with where we are as a program. *shrugs*
You have had talent equal to Alabama and Georgia and in a different stratosphere than all others for the last 5 years and 0 natties. That is underperforming.

In the last few years a #1 overall draft pick and Heisman winner QB as well as a #12 overall pick and 1st team all American WR were riding the pine at Ohio St, transferred to the SEC, and won natties. Ohio St just had them warming the bench. That is underperforming.
 

bono47

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You could have been. Your writing sucks.
Your logic and skills at rational debate suck. So head to personal attacks.

What don't you comprehend about my original post? The entire post was based on my initial observation of Franklin collapsing in the 4th against a Top 10 opponent. Clearly, my comments about being mentally weak and not pulling out a 4th quarter win was within the context of a top 10 game. Clearly, my comment also is in response to last Saturday's game - - a game against a top 10 opponent.

You can try to parse and selectively ignore to cheerlead all you want, but it is a weak attempt at any useful discussion and ignores context. Context matters in all aspects of life.

Again, is this fanbase ok with Franklin's body of work in top 10 games, particularly those in which PSU has blown a lead in the 4th?
 
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NOVABuck45

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You have had talent equal to Alabama and Georgia and in a different stratosphere than all others for the last 5 years and 0 natties. That is underperforming.

In the last few years a #1 overall draft pick and Heisman winner QB as well as a #12 overall pick and 1st team all American WR were riding the pine at Ohio St, transferred to the SEC, and won natties. Ohio St just had them warming the bench. That is underperforming.

I realize OSU lives rent free in your head, but you may want to double check the data, my friend :)

Alabama has outrecruited OSU literally every year for the past 12+ years except once. Since Kirby took over at UGA, they've outrecruited OSU most years. Saban has had like 10 #1 classes. Kirby has had 2 or 3. Ohio State has had zero.

As long as Nick is at Bama, we'll never outrecruit Bama. Nobody will -- except the occasional Kirby class (or the one off Texas A&M NIL bonanza class).

We have had elite talent. And we've gotten elite results. A natty, a natty appearance, and top-6 finishes every year since 2014. Alabama has even MORE elite talent. Their results are similarly consistent with their talent.

You'd take our "underperforming" resume in a heartbeat. But if it makes you feel better to think that we're underachieving or poorly coached.......have at it :)
 
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MacNit07

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It is looking that way but he ain't going anywhere and we got him. Yhe question I have is Why? Why do we crumble under pressure in big games against top 10 teams? How do you instill a winning culture?
Change
 

MacNit07

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I realize OSU lives rent free in your head, but you may want to double check the data, my friend :)

Alabama has outrecruited OSU literally every year for the past 12+ years except once. Since Kirby took over at UGA, they've outrecruited OSU most years. Saban has had like 10 #1 classes. Kirby has had 2 or 3. Ohio State has had zero.

As long as Nick is at Bama, we'll never outrecruit Bama. Nobody will -- except the occasional Kirby class (or the one off Texas A&M NIL bonanza class).

We have had elite talent. And we've gotten elite results. A natty, a natty appearance, and top-6 finishes every year since 2014. Alabama has even MORE elite talent. Their results are similarly consistent with their talent.

You'd take our "underperforming" resume in a heartbeat. But if it makes you feel better to think that we're underachieving or poorly coached.......have at it :)
Damn straight we’d take it…at least most of us…some would rather irrationally defend the true underperformed - Franklin.

And Day is the complete package…take him in a heartbeat.
 
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MacNit07

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I can live with 10-2 this year with a New Years 6 Bowl win if that happens. (Still possible losses vs Maryland and/or MSU IMO ) (My expectations after last year for this year were much lower)

If 10-2 and a bowl win does happen, expectations will be much higher for next year, including wins over Michigan and Ohio State, (especially with a 5 star QB)

The question will be if that does not happen, are the powers at be happy with coming in third every year or so?

I suspect Franklin's real threat will eventually be former PSU players, not necessarily his former players, who believe that PSU should win championships and be competitive at the playoff level.
Correct…and not eventually…now
 

NOVABuck45

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Damn straight we’d take it…at least most of us…some would rather irrationally defend the true underperformed - Franklin.

And Day is the complete package…take him in a heartbeat.

There are valid critiques of Day, and until he wins a title it's going to be hard to put him in the very elite category. But I chuckle at this notion that he's underperforming. Winning a title isn't easy in the Saban golden era -- much less with Kirby Smart getting his train rolling with #1 classes and his Saban-esque coaching. Smart manages to land defensive monsters that OSU cannot get with that kind of depth and consistency.

Keeping with this thread......Franklin is your John Cooper in a way. Recruits well, fields good teams, but can't win the big one(s). I personally see no reason why PSU can't be a perennial playoff contender at least. Not sure if Franklin is the guy to do it. Rhule is the one that as a Buckeye I'd want to see steer clear of Happy Valley. Hope he goes to Auburn.
 
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manilion

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We’ll see how this season plays out but if the team wins 10 regular season games and a bowl this year, he will have averaged 10 wins a year (ignoring the 2020 Covid season) since (and including) 2016. If averaging 10 wins a season isn’t good enough for you, then the problem may be you. There are very few programs doing better than that and it’s usually temporary when they do.
Big 10 has been weak for the last decade. Most years there has been one great team and maybe two decent top 15 level teams. You add in a weak out of conference schedule and you get 10 wins. His record is full of beating mediocre teams nothing more.
 

Online Persona

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I realize OSU lives rent free in your head, but you may want to double check the data, my friend :)

Alabama has outrecruited OSU literally every year for the past 12+ years except once. Since Kirby took over at UGA, they've outrecruited OSU most years. Saban has had like 10 #1 classes. Kirby has had 2 or 3. Ohio State has had zero.

As long as Nick is at Bama, we'll never outrecruit Bama. Nobody will -- except the occasional Kirby class (or the one off Texas A&M NIL bonanza class).

We have had elite talent. And we've gotten elite results. A natty, a natty appearance, and top-6 finishes every year since 2014. Alabama has even MORE elite talent. Their results are similarly consistent with their talent.

You'd take our "underperforming" resume in a heartbeat. But if it makes you feel better to think that we're underachieving or poorly coached.......have at it :)
Wrong. Ohio St is the only one not like the others.

Below is the top 4 teams in team talent composite over the last 5 seasons. Alabama slightly edges out Ohio St who slightly edges out Georgia. USC was there but faded and Clemson took their spot but they generally had a big gap between 3rd and 4th best except for 2017. So there is a clear top 3 in talent and it hasn't really been close below that. Of the top 3 in talent, only Ohio St hasn't gotten it done.

2017 Alabama had a team talent composite of 997.57, Ohio St 955.51, USC 934. Georgia was right there at 930.34.

2018 Ohio St had a team talent composite of 984.3, Alabama 978.54, Georgia 963.87. Next highest USC at 928.18.

2019 Alabama had a team talent composite of 984.96, Ohio St 973.55, Georgia 960.16. Next highest USC at 915.56.

2020 Georgia had a team talent composite of 990.52, Alabama 985.86, Ohio St 976.48. Next highest Clemson at 915.57.

2021 Alabama had a team talent composite of 1001.89, Georgia 1001.79, and Ohio St 985.89. Next highest Clemson at 933.77.
 

psu00

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Here is Spurrier's resume at Florida:

  • Won one national championship (1996), and played for another (1995).
  • Won six SEC championships (1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2000).
  • Named SEC Coach of the Year five times (1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1996)
If that's what we have to look forward to from JF, I'd certainly take that.

Steve Spurrier coached at Florida 12 years, (1990- 2001).

By year 7 he had already played for 2 national championships, (winning one title), and won 5 SEC championships.

Through 9 years Franklin has 1 Big Ten championship.

I think all we’ve proven here is that JF is no Steve Spurrier. ;)
 
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scrivener

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Wrong. Ohio St is the only one not like the others.

Below is the top 4 teams in team talent composite over the last 5 seasons. Alabama slightly edges out Ohio St who slightly edges out Georgia. USC was there but faded and Clemson took their spot but they generally had a big gap between 3rd and 4th best except for 2017. So there is a clear top 3 in talent and it hasn't really been close below that. Of the top 3 in talent, only Ohio St hasn't gotten it done.

2017 Alabama had a team talent composite of 997.57, Ohio St 955.51, USC 934. Georgia was right there at 930.34.

2018 Ohio St had a team talent composite of 984.3, Alabama 978.54, Georgia 963.87. Next highest USC at 928.18.

2019 Alabama had a team talent composite of 984.96, Ohio St 973.55, Georgia 960.16. Next highest USC at 915.56.

2020 Georgia had a team talent composite of 990.52, Alabama 985.86, Ohio St 976.48. Next highest Clemson at 915.57.

2021 Alabama had a team talent composite of 1001.89, Georgia 1001.79, and Ohio St 985.89. Next highest Clemson at 933.77.
Lol stop already...u are being obtuse. PSU would trade the last 9 yrs for OSUs in a heartbeat
 

manilion

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Did they crumble in the 4Q against:

2016 OSU
2016 Wisconsin
2017 Iowa
2018 Iowa
2019 Iowa
2019 Michigan
2021 Wisconsin
2021 Auburn
2022 Purdue

No coach (none, zero) wins every close game in the 4Q especially when they are the underdog.

Expecting your coach to do so is not only unrealistic, but quite frankly suggests an ignorance of the sport.
How many of those teams ended the year in the top 15. By my count 2. They should be pouring in on them, not squeaking by.
 

heckmans

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Here is Spurrier's resume at Florida:

  • Won one national championship (1996), and played for another (1995).
  • Won six SEC championships (1991, 1993, 1994, 1995, 1996, 2000).
  • Named SEC Coach of the Year five times (1990, 1991, 1994, 1995, 1996)
If that's what we have to look forward to from JF, I'd certainly take that.
He won on talent and when his rivals were down. He got out coached always. I guess if JF can up his recruiting game and beat UM but lose to OSU most years, that's a plan. The analogy is still relevant.
 

KCLion

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You are using the word parse as if it has negative connotations. It does not. A lot of my job involves parsing information.
Your parsing is always to support your opinion - that’s not good in understanding written paragraphs or in data analysis.
 

MacNit07

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There are valid critiques of Day, and until he wins a title it's going to be hard to put him in the very elite category. But I chuckle at this notion that he's underperforming. Winning a title isn't easy in the Saban golden era -- much less with Kirby Smart getting his train rolling with #1 classes and his Saban-esque coaching. Smart manages to land defensive monsters that OSU cannot get with that kind of depth and consistency.

Keeping with this thread......Franklin is your John Cooper in a way. Recruits well, fields good teams, but can't win the big one(s). I personally see no reason why PSU can't be a perennial playoff contender at least. Not sure if Franklin is the guy to do it. Rhule is the one that as a Buckeye I'd want to see steer clear of Happy Valley. Hope he goes to Auburn.
You and I are aligned NovaBuck. But Day is just getting started. His offenses are amazing. He will break through soon. Defense is getting better and the cupboard is full and getting fuller.

Also agree on Rhule. Franklin has had more than enough time. He has got us through the unjustified sanctions. But he peaked half a decade ago+. And future is not looking good. Sone very good skill players but cupboard is bare on OLine and DTackles…and we are about to lose our one decent offensive lineman. Culture seems to lack the killer instinct…soft.
 

scrivener

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Even better trade for their team talent composite this past 5 years and franklin likely has a national championship or 2.
Ok...and he is responsible for the talent brought in. WR and DE have been the two most important positions for OSU during their reign...even more than QB. They have had alphas, 5-stars who can single handedly win games...we haven't and dont.
 
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Online Persona

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Ok...and he is responsible for the talent brought in. WR and DE have been the two most important positions for OSU during their reign...even more than QB. They have had alphas, 5-stars who can single handedly win games...we haven't and dont.
Yes they have and they still can't win a national championship with it. How embarrassing is it that they've had so much talent that the #1 overall pick in the NFL and Heisman winner QB had to transfer to the SEC to get playing time and then a national title? Hold on before you answer.

Consider also in addition that a #12 overall draft pick WR had to transfer to the SEC to get playing time, a national championship, and 1st string all American honors over the very WRs at Ohio St that he could not beat out for playing time. How embarrassing is that use of talent with no national title to show for?

If that happened at PSU the fans would be crucifying our coaches. Apparently their model is to sit future 1st round picks and all Americans until they transfer to schools that will actually play them and win national titles with them.
 

scrivener

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Yes they have and they still can't win a national championship with it. How embarrassing is it that they've had so much talent that the #1 overall pick in the NFL and Heisman winner QB had to transfer to the SEC to get playing time and then a national title? Hold on before you answer.

Consider also in addition that a #12 overall draft pick WR had to transfer to the SEC to get playing time, a national championship, and 1st string all American honors over the very WRs at Ohio St that he could not beat out for playing time. How embarrassing is that use of talent with no national title to show for?

If that happened at PSU the fans would be crucifying our coaches. Apparently their model is to sit future 1st round picks and all Americans until they transfer to schools that will actually play them and win national titles with them.
Ohio state has won a championship in the last decade you do realize that…..granted 2014 feels like a drought for them. I don't know what this incessant need you have is to crush Ohio state and their philosophy of handling players because it's sure a lot better than what Penn state is doing
 
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scrivener

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Yes they have and they still can't win a national championship with it. How embarrassing is it that they've had so much talent that the #1 overall pick in the NFL and Heisman winner QB had to transfer to the SEC to get playing time and then a national title? Hold on before you answer.

Consider also in addition that a #12 overall draft pick WR had to transfer to the SEC to get playing time, a national championship, and 1st string all American honors over the very WRs at Ohio St that he could not beat out for playing time. How embarrassing is that use of talent with no national title to show for?

If that happened at PSU the fans would be crucifying our coaches. Apparently their model is to sit future 1st round picks and all Americans until they transfer to schools that will actually play them and win national titles with them.
You want to talk about embarrassing use of talent? How about getting one full year out of Parsons who was sharing time with Farmer, who makes Jonathan Sutherland look like an all-American. James is the last person you should be comparing others to when it comes to the rotation of players
 
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NOVABuck45

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Wrong. Ohio St is the only one not like the others.

Below is the top 4 teams in team talent composite over the last 5 seasons. Alabama slightly edges out Ohio St who slightly edges out Georgia. USC was there but faded and Clemson took their spot but they generally had a big gap between 3rd and 4th best except for 2017. So there is a clear top 3 in talent and it hasn't really been close below that. Of the top 3 in talent, only Ohio St hasn't gotten it done.

2017 Alabama had a team talent composite of 997.57, Ohio St 955.51, USC 934. Georgia was right there at 930.34.

2018 Ohio St had a team talent composite of 984.3, Alabama 978.54, Georgia 963.87. Next highest USC at 928.18.

2019 Alabama had a team talent composite of 984.96, Ohio St 973.55, Georgia 960.16. Next highest USC at 915.56.

2020 Georgia had a team talent composite of 990.52, Alabama 985.86, Ohio St 976.48. Next highest Clemson at 915.57.

2021 Alabama had a team talent composite of 1001.89, Georgia 1001.79, and Ohio St 985.89. Next highest Clemson at 933.77.

Over the past 10 years, OSU's average recruiting class is 4.6.

Over the past 10 years, OSU's average final poll ranking is 4.5.

I'd say we're right where we should be based on the talent we're getting.

But if it helps you sleep at night to take comfort in our "underachieving", you do that :) I'll continue to enjoy our consistent top-5 success with the occasional natty. I'm okay admitting that we're not at Saban's level. If that's your burn against us........okay, boss.
 
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PSU2UNC

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He won on talent and when his rivals were down. He got out coached always. I guess if JF can up his recruiting game and beat UM but lose to OSU most years, that's a plan. The analogy is still relevant.
LOL. OK.
 

PSU2UNC

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Steve Spurrier coached at Florida 12 years, (1990- 2001).

By year 7 he had already played for 2 national championships, (winning one title), and won 5 SEC championships.

Through 9 years Franklin has 1 Big Ten championship.

I think all we’ve proven here is that JF is no Steve Spurrier. ;)
Different area, different recruiting base.

But the OP referred to JF as SS as if it was a bad thing. It is clearly not.
 

scrivener

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Over the past 10 years, OSU's average recruiting class is 4.6.

Over the past 10 years, OSU's average final poll ranking is 4.5.

I'd say we're right where we should be based on the talent we're getting.

But if it helps you sleep at night to take comfort in our "underachieving", you do that :) I'll continue to enjoy our consistent top-5 success with the occasional natty. I'm okay admitting that we're not at Saban's level. If that's your burn against us........okay, boss.
That poster is a clown who doesn't see the forest for the trees...most programs, including PSU, would gladly swap where they are with OSU.
 

PSU2UNC

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Your logic and skills at rational debate suck. So head to personal attacks.

What don't you comprehend about my original post? The entire post was based on my initial observation of Franklin collapsing in the 4th against a Top 10 opponent. Clearly, my comments about being mentally weak and not pulling out a 4th quarter win was within the context of a top 10 game. Clearly, my comment also is in response to last Saturday's game - - a game against a top 10 opponent.

You can try to parse and selectively ignore to cheerlead all you want, but it is a weak attempt at any useful discussion and ignores context. Context matters in all aspects of life.

Again, is this fanbase ok with Franklin's body of work in top 10 games, particularly those in which PSU has blown a lead in the 4th?
Your overall point is asinine. When you play a top 10 team as an underdog (especially a 2 score+ underdog) there should be no expectation to win. It's not as if PSU was favored against OSU and UM and pooped the bed. The were expected to lose and did (in one case covering the spread and the other case not).

So the metric of "record against top ten teams" is BS to start with.

A more interesting stat (which I haven't seen) would be record in games in which you were a <1 score underdog. That would give you a better sense of realistic performance above expectations (which is a better metric of coaching acumen).

But keeping parroting easily accessible stats that support your horrible point.

So to answer you question, yes, I am very happy with Coach Franklin (as should be anyone who understand college football).
 

bono47

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Your overall point is asinine. When you play a top 10 team as an underdog (especially a 2 score+ underdog) there should be no expectation to win. It's not as if PSU was favored against OSU and UM and pooped the bed. The were expected to lose and did (in one case covering the spread and the other case not).

So the metric of "record against top ten teams" is BS to start with.

A more interesting stat (which I haven't seen) would be record in games in which you were a <1 score underdog. That would give you a better sense of realistic performance above expectations (which is a better metric of coaching acumen).

But keeping parroting easily accessible stats that support your horrible point.

So to answer you question, yes, I am very happy with Coach Franklin (as should be anyone who understand college football).
Nope, your position is asinine, and your last comment explains your selective reading and ignorance.

Your logic is circular.

Your position: When PSU is rated as an underdog, albeit by Vegas of all authorities, there is simply no expectation of success and no accountability for Franklin, even if during those games PSU has a lead late. PSU should lose those top 10 games, which means typically against the only 2 teams that matter given PSU's blue blood history, namely Michigan and OSU.

But, if PSU should always lose those games per your logic, when does PSU get over the hump and become the favorite in those games? Surely, your argument cannot be when PSU out-recruits those programs, because: (1) that will not happen until PSU starts beating them; and (2) recruits do not always pan out. You make no sense.

Franklin is getting paid a shitload of money to get PSU back to its historic success. He is getting paid to win the games that matter. Dabo got Clemson over the hump, Harbaugh got Mich over the hump, etc. Sooner or later he needs to coach a group of individuals to win even when he is not expected to against top 10 competition, or he is spinning tires by out-talenting scrub programs and then choking when it matters.

Franklin fails wholeheartedly in this regard sans 2016. That is pure and simple fact.
 
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Jerry

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Over the past 10 years, OSU's average recruiting class is 4.6.

Over the past 10 years, OSU's average final poll ranking is 4.5.

I'd say we're right where we should be based on the talent we're getting.

But if it helps you sleep at night to take comfort in our "underachieving", you do that :) I'll continue to enjoy our consistent top-5 success with the occasional natty. I'm okay admitting that we're not at Saban's level. If that's your burn against us........okay, boss.

Bring back Luke Fickell, damn it!

I recently came across an interesting discussion (link below) of "blue-chip ratio," defined as the percentage of a school's recruits who by consensus fit the category of 4- or 5-star ratings over the previous four years.

The author of the piece finds an unsurprising correlation between the top few teams in that category and what might be called an elite level of success on the field.

His 2022 ranking, which covers the most recent 4-year period, has Alabama at the top and Ohio State 2nd. Michigan is 12th. Penn State is 13th. Those are the only Big-10 schools in the top-15.

However, using his criteria, you could also argue that teams like Texas A&M, Texas, Florida, Miami, and Auburn, which are all in his top-15, have recently underachieved relative to their recruit quality.

There are also some holes in his methodology as it doesn't take into account the portal which has become an increasingly important source of talent.

 

Online Persona

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You want to talk about embarrassing use of talent? How about getting one full year out of Parsons who was sharing time with Farmer, who makes Jonathan Sutherland look like an all-American. James is the last person you should be comparing others to when it comes to the rotation of players
You realize Parsons played almost equal snaps as a true freshman as the 4 star senior ahead of him when he came in? Then he started as a sophomore and became top draft pick.

That's your example of bad player management against Ohio St running off a future Heisman number 1 overall draft pick and then following that up by running off a future #12 overall and 1st team all American both of whom won national titles?
 
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PSU2UNC

Well-Known Member
Feb 9, 2016
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Nope, your position is asinine, and your last comment explains your selective reading and ignorance.

Your logic is circular.

Your position: When PSU is rated as an underdog, albeit by Vegas of all authorities, there is simply no expectation of success and no accountability for Franklin, even if during those games PSU has a lead late. PSU should lose those top 10 games, which means typically against the only 2 teams that matter given PSU's blue blood history, namely Michigan and OSU.

But, if PSU should always lose those games per your logic, when does PSU get over the hump and become the favorite in those games? Surely, your argument cannot be when PSU out-recruits those programs, because: (1) that will not happen until PSU starts beating them; and (2) recruits do not always pan out. You make no sense.

Franklin is getting paid a shitload of money to get PSU back to its historic success. He is getting paid to win the games that matter. Dabo got Clemson over the hump, Harbaugh got Mich over the hump, etc. Sooner or later he needs to coach a group of individuals to win even when he is not expected to against top 10 competition, or he is spinning tires by out-talenting scrub programs and then choking when it matters.

Franklin fails wholeheartedly in this regard sans 2016. That is pure and simple fact.
You are incredibly wrong here.

I use Vegas (not because they are the be all end all, but they are the only widely available predictor, based on market forces, of who is predicted to win a game; you can go to SP+ if you like to be more quantitative, but I suspect the results of the analysis would be the same).

You flirt with saying something meaningful here: "recruits do not always pan out" which is half of the equation. The other half is "sometimes recruits are better than expected". So while PSU is not likely to outcompete OSU on the recruiting trail in terms of stars (although they are closer than they have ever been THANKS TO FRANKLIN), they could field a better team from time to time. But the overall point is that no one should expect PSU to win games when they are outmatched. Sometimes they will, but to expect them to be .500 against top 10 teams is just absurd.

"Dabo got Clemson over the hump"
Dabo had a series of elite QBs and a defensive coordinator (and insane support staff) who loved stealing signs. Note that he has come back to earth slightly (still benefitting from the ACC being incredibly weak).

"Harbaugh got Mich over the hump,"
To quote Brant "Goody" Goodleaf "Settle down." They've had 1.5 good years in recent memory. We will see if this is sustainable. Also recall how mediocre Michigan was (under Harbaugh) until last year. Zero reason that PSU can't do the same thing.
 

Online Persona

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Feb 2, 2022
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Bring back Luke Fickell, damn it!

I recently came across an interesting discussion (link below) of "blue-chip ratio," defined as the percentage of a school's recruits who by consensus fit the category of 4- or 5-star ratings over the previous four years.

The author of the piece finds an unsurprising correlation between the top few teams in that category and what might be called an elite level of success on the field.

His 2022 ranking, which covers the most recent 4-year period, has Alabama at the top and Ohio State 2nd. Michigan is 12th. Penn State is 13th. Those are the only Big-10 schools in the top-15.

However, using his criteria, you could also argue that teams like Texas A&M, Texas, Florida, Miami, and Auburn, which are all in his top-15, have recently underachieved relative to their recruit quality.

There are also some holes in his methodology as it doesn't take into account the portal which has become an increasingly important source of talent.

It goes deeper than blue chip ratio. The kid that won the game for Ohio St this past week was the #1 overall recruit by a few services. He should not count the same in talent analysis as the #300 overall recruit who is also a blue chip recruit.

Ohio St has considerably more 5 stars than the rest of the Big 10 combined. They should never lose a conference game ever. Nearly all of their conference games should be 4 or more score blowouts if you simply go by talent on paper. Yet somehow PSU always has them tight into the 4th quarter and occasionally wins. Michigan bullied them last year. Purdue blew them out a couple of years ago.

That is underperforming, due to poor coaching, and should be embarrassing for a team of mostly 5 star and high 4 star recruits. And it's hurting the rest of the conference that they can't close the deal against teams with similar talent in the playoffs.
 
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