Woah I just did the math. PSU loses points at 133, 141, 157, 174, 184, 197, and Hwy. That's 7 top 2 seeds in which PSU loses points compared to Iowa probably only losing points at 125, 141, and 149. This has to be an actual interesting reason why we don't win B1Gs at nearly the same rate as NCAAs.
Lost points in 1st round...
- Thread starter Psugo823
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Unfamiliar with the scoring. I was under the impression that if those getting byes in first round win their 2nd round bouts they then get the points from first round as well. Now I can see being at disadvantage bonus wise. Or do I have the scoring all wrong?
Lost is bonus opportunity, win the QF match after a bye the team gets 2 advancement points. Or 1 if it is in wrestle backs.
Fewer opportunities for bonus points against low seeds. I'm not sure 'lost points' is the proper take.
But yeah, if Roars' seeds are accurate, Iowa will have 8 guys wrestle lower seeds in the 1st round. We will have 2 wrestling low seeds plus Steen wrestling a higher seed.
The Hawks could build a nice lead going into round 2, but each of our wrestlers with a bye in the 1st round will get 2 points for a win in round two.
I'm pretty sure that's how it works.
But yeah, if Roars' seeds are accurate, Iowa will have 8 guys wrestle lower seeds in the 1st round. We will have 2 wrestling low seeds plus Steen wrestling a higher seed.
The Hawks could build a nice lead going into round 2, but each of our wrestlers with a bye in the 1st round will get 2 points for a win in round two.
I'm pretty sure that's how it works.
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Yeah, it's the lost opportunity for bonus points against inferior competition that definitely slows us down most years. You do get the other points, but not those potential points.
I thought the same thing with PSU losing bonus points in the first round while others get them. However, looking at last years results there was not one time where Penn State had a bye and Michigan did not where the Michigan wrestler actually got bonus points. Now if you are claiming if all wrestlers were to wrestle in the first round (obviously need 16 per weight) Penn State would get enough bonus points to change the team standings you might have a point. For last year these were the PSU/Mich byes and the most likely outcome (imho):
125 PSU Drew Hildebrandt - no bonus (given the way he wrestled)
125 Mich Nick Suriano - a bonus. (75.00 % bonus rate in 2022)
133 PSU Roman Bravo-Young - a bonus. (54.55% bonus rate in 2022)
141 PSU Nick Lee - a bonus. (54.55 % bonus rate in 2022)
174 PSU Carter Starocci - a bonus (56.52 % bonus rate in 2022)
174 Mich Logan Massa - a bonus (41.67 % bonus rate in 2022...this one could be either way)
184 PSU Aaron Brooks - a bonus (63.64 % bonus rate in 2022)
184 Mich Myles Amine - a bonus (30.43 % bonus rate in 2022...this one surprised me and very well might be a no bonus)
197 PSU Max Dean - a bonus. (45.83% bonus rate in 2022)
So in summary last year PSU could of expected bonus for 5 while Mich for only 3 (2 if you say Myles Amine does not score a bonus). At 2 pts for a fall, 1.5 for a tech, and 1 additional point for a major decision PSU left between 5-10 points on a the table. Mich left (if you give Myles Amine the bonus) between 3-6 points on the table.
The final score was Michigan 143, PSU 141.5 or 1.5 pts seperation. In this case yes not having every wrestler wrestle the same amount of bouts probably changed the outcome... but there is a catch. If you have a bye you wrestle one less bout so potentially you are fresher later in the tournment giving you an edge. Also your first opponent in the second round is likely to be lower ranked than those that did not have a bye giving a better chance to bonus.
You could model those out based on results over the last 12 years (or since wrestling was invented) and come up with a statiscal team point advantage or disadvantage for getting a bye.
It's interesting only if the B10 Tournament team title is interesting.
I would like to see them snag the Big10 title on their way to a national title. However, last year was Big10 perfect. Michigan grabbing the Big10 title while someone else was claiming the national championship. It was so Harbaughish or Schembechlesque.
1st rd byes at B1Gs has nothing to do with why PSU has more National titles than B1G titles. It's all about the makeup of the team and how it is built specifically to win National titles. Top ranked wrestlers score big points no matter the size of the field. Middle-low ranked wrestlers score significantly less for the team at Nattys as they did at B1Gs. It's that simple.
A quick look at how PSU finished at B1Gs since Cael arrived really only shows 2 years where the byes realistically could have played a part in the outcome. Last year, when Mich won by 1.5 points, and 2011 when PSU won by 1.
A quick look at how PSU finished at B1Gs since Cael arrived really only shows 2 years where the byes realistically could have played a part in the outcome. Last year, when Mich won by 1.5 points, and 2011 when PSU won by 1.
Another reason PSU’s 4th in 2020 shouldn’t be used to say they couldn’t have won NCAAs that year. 1st round byes for RBY, Nick Lee, VJ, Hall and Brooks. Just not representative of what they would have done with five matches and bonus points in the first couple rounds, not to mention the further separation at NCAAs that having champions provides.
2011 was a telltale for the future. 5 champs and everybody won their last match of the tournament.
As far as the Big10 tournament lacking meaning. I remember that weekend and it was meaningful as hell.
Right. Because we only celebrate the good fortune in life that we actively pursue.
Caels schedule goes November preseason, December tournaments, B1G schedule, B1Gs, and then it’s time for nationals. He schedules them right, trains them right, prepares them right, wrestles them right and then it’s the big stage. Bang! The annual formula and the guys are at peak performance in March. They are fresh this year.
I really thought this thread was an early start on freaking out about our guys scoring 7 point decisions and 14 point majors on Thursday at NCAAs.
I don’t care what people say, It means a lot to me when PSU wins the big tens and Iowa hopefully places 4th. It means a lot to me!
We lose Big Tens because we have weights we don't score at sometimes while other teams have more placement wrestlers that a bigger field eliminates while also giving us more bonus opportunities.
I think Nebraska 2020 might be the best example, they beat us by 25 at Big Tens but I'm pretty confident they weren't going to do well at NCAAs because they only had 4 sure AAs and they were mid to lower AAs (Red, Labriola, White, Schultz) and the rest of their team were likely to score 1-2 points at NCAAs instead of 10-13.
I think Nebraska 2020 might be the best example, they beat us by 25 at Big Tens but I'm pretty confident they weren't going to do well at NCAAs because they only had 4 sure AAs and they were mid to lower AAs (Red, Labriola, White, Schultz) and the rest of their team were likely to score 1-2 points at NCAAs instead of 10-13.
But I thought that once Ruth and Taylor graduated, our bonus potential would be gone too. 🙄
2017 was a good example.
Rodrigues, Pletcher, Ryan, and Burcher scored 29 team points to help OSU win the Big title by 9.5 points.
They combined to score 4 team points at NCAAs.
Bonus points will always be an important component in tournament scoring, as will Advancement and Placement points. I'll take the advantage of having top-seed wrestlers capable of scoring high Placement points all day, every day if given a choice on how to build a team though.
At the Big Ten tournament, since and including the 2011 season, we've averaged;
96.4 Placement Points
22.3 Advancement Points
19.7 Bonus Points
Placement Points are 70% of our overall scoring, with Advancement Points 16% and Bonus Points at 14%.
Take care of business in 2023 (i.e. wrestle to seed) and it won't be close, regardless of the Bonus Point lost opportunity at five weight classes.
Plus, for the grand prize (NCAA Championships), every team has the same opportunity for bonus points (pigtail opportunity aside).
At the Big Ten tournament, since and including the 2011 season, we've averaged;
96.4 Placement Points
22.3 Advancement Points
19.7 Bonus Points
Placement Points are 70% of our overall scoring, with Advancement Points 16% and Bonus Points at 14%.
Take care of business in 2023 (i.e. wrestle to seed) and it won't be close, regardless of the Bonus Point lost opportunity at five weight classes.
Plus, for the grand prize (NCAA Championships), every team has the same opportunity for bonus points (pigtail opportunity aside).
i've said i think it's easier to win nationals than conference titles many times. why, because a good team gets more help from outside sources
.
Didn’t it used to be that bonus in the match after the bye got counted twice (to reflect bonus opportunity lost in the bye.)? I liked that. Unless I’m making it up, in which case I would like that.
Ding, ding, ding, ding! You must have read the same thread as I did over at HR. It was very enlightening to discover that most wrestlers fight much harder to avoid bonus against Iowa and are happy to roll over against PSU to screw the Hawkeyes. That probably doesn't happen as much in the B1G where the rivalries are more heated.i've said i think it's easier to win nationals than conference titles many times. why, because a good team gets more help from outside sources
BTW, @js8793 and @jmadden1998 - I think you guys are good posters and enjoy your stuff here. But when you defend the HR by saying there are wing nuts everywhere, you are full of sh$t. Yes, there are wing nuts everywhere. But the above sentiment was posted - not in jest - over there recently. It was seconded in another post and both posts received multiple likes. Even our worst posters have not committed to that level of delusion. I find it hard to believe anyone over, let's say 7 years old, could read that and affirm it unless they were mentally challenged.
I think we need wing nut levels. Say 1-10. I would agree there are more level 8-10 on GIA then on here.
That's the only way Iowa can jump levels lol. Sorry you lobbed it up there lol
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