No question, this is a huge deal, and Michigan should pay a high price...but some thoughts cross my mind:
First, the wheels of NCAA justice grind slowly...(unless the target is Penn State in which case there is no justice and things happen at lightning speed).
Second, Michigan football may belong in the Too-Big-To-Fail category. Certainly the conference, which right now is looking at the possibility of both its Sacred Cows again making the playoffs, has little interest in the destruction of one of its premier programs.
Third, it's just an impression on my part, but even the media treatment of this has been fairly restrained. Yes, there's been a lot of reporting but not that much in the way of indignant demands for punishment.
Fourth, this may be a rock the NCAA is cautious about turning over for fear of all the creepy-crawly things that might be found underneath. I mean, already you've got the USC coach accusing Utah of stealing signs on Saturday night. Just how deep does all this go and might it badly tarnish the integrity of the entire college game if the whole truth came out?
For all these reasons, I think Michigan escapes consequences this year. The investigation will be slow-walked to completion in 2024, some sanctions will be handed out, Michigan will be hurt but survive the damage, Harbaugh will ride off (possibly with a national championship in hand) to a big NFL contract, there will be much sermonizing and handwringing...and then the Powers That Be will hasten to return everything to "normal."