NCAA points per weight class 2018 vs 2019

[PSUbluTX]

I was fiddling around with some bonus/advancement point scenarios and thought I'd compare them to what happened last year. The idea was to get a sense of whether a team might expect more or less points at a given weight class. I included only the teams I expect to finish 1-4: PSU, OSU, tOSU, and IOWA.

Yes, the 2019 projections could be WAY off, and injury/illness is always a lurking wildcard. But I tried to be unbiased (the impossible dream) and not excessively homertastic (probably the same). But if I'm anywhere close, 2 teams are clearly trending in the right direction (PSU and OSU) and the other 2 are going backwards (tOSU and IOWA).

Frankly, I was a bit surprised to see how much higher our point ceiling seems to be this year than last. Some favorable seeding gives us an extra push as the others will knock each other out in several H2H matchups.

Assumptions About Our Studs:
·133/RBY: He gets 2 MDs, loses to DeSantos but gets past Pletcher in the consis to take 8th.
·141/NICK: He falls to McKenna but fights back to take 3rd and gets 2 MDs.
·149/BERGE: No Zain brings some pain but BB takes 6th, exchanges wins/losses with Kolodzik and Mueller, and has 1 MD.
·157/NOLF: 2-legged, highly motivated Jason gets a bit more bonus than last year, and takes the crown with 1 pin, 2 TFs, and 2 MDs.
·165/VJ: He repeats and, given his increased bonus rate this year, he adds 1 MD to his 1 TF from last year.
·174/HALL: Mark retakes the crown but has only 1 TF and 1 MD (had 1 Fall & 1 TF last year).
·184/SHAK: A rested, healed, & confident Shak at his ideal weight scores less bonus than Bo did at 184 but has the tourney we expected last year, gets 2 Falls & 1 MD en route to 2nd place.
·197/BO: He continues to be en fuego, pins his first two opponents and only majors the next 3.
·285/AC: He takes 2nd & racks up 1 TF and 2 MDs, doubling the points a banged-up NN had last year.

 

[ClarkstonMark]

I only looked at PSU, but I’ll say you are being very homertastic lol

 

[NoVa Lion]

I only looked at PSU, but I’ll say you are being very homertastic lol

Agree. Those results add up to 172.5 points for PSU. If forced to bet the over under, I would have to take the under.

 

[Gray52]

9 AA’s is probably not happening, and you’re handing out bonus points like candy at Christmas.... but I like your optimism.
I think there’ll be many more tighter matches on Friday than most are anticipating. I’d be extremely happy if PSU scores 145-150.

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

Yeah, I'd say you failed in any attempt to avoid homerism, as your "predictions" are about as objective as those on HR last spring that predicted 160-175 points for Iowa in this tournament. Okay, maybe not quite that bad, but you get the idea. In particular:

• PSU isn't scoring 170+. As stated by another poster, you're handing out bonus to PSU guys like candy.
• Nine AAs is unlikely. Seven is much more realistic.

 

[jschrantz]

Yeah, I'd say you failed in any attempt to avoid homerism, as your "predictions" are about as objective as those on HR last spring that predicted 160-175 points for Iowa in this tournament. Okay, maybe not quite that bad, but you get the idea. In particular:

• PSU isn't scoring 170+. As stated by another poster, you're handing out bonus to PSU guys like candy.
• Nine AAs is unlikely. Seven is much more realistic.

They(the other site)still expect Stoll to regain his form as he wrestled Gable close, he’s gonna find his knees again n go deep, Murin will beat Moran and Carr, Pat Lugo can best Gfeller in rd 2 n make a run, Cash is supposed to regain his confidence and let it fly too. They love Austin wrestling an injured Micic post RBY, they are talking their way into a shot at this thing still, I love it . Also, Warnerov has the tools to beat Kollin Moore. Lee is no longer sick . What else did I miss? Oh yea, Kaleb Young will do serious damage on the backside . Watch them Hawks fly!!!! And the Bull is the Bull, look out Chuck Norris, unless it’s Joe Smith then they’re scared

 

[Ian]

PSU with 3-4 champs, 7-8 AA’s and 150-160 pts. Gap to #2 will be 40-50 pts and titled secured early Saturday. Sit back and enjoy Cael’s coronation. His best squad since being in SC. Pburgh will be rocking blue and white all weekend!

 

[PSUbluTX]

Reasonable reactions above. Not saying those are my predictions, only that it’s not HR, I mean, irrational, to see these outcomes. That’s what surprised me.

The final placement points could well prove to be wrong, but it’s not hard to see this bonus production:

BERGE: 1 bonus W
RBY, NICK, VJ, & MARK: 2 bonus Ws
SHAK & AC: 3 bonus Ws
JASON & BO: 5 bonus Ws

 

[aalion]

Reasonable reactions above. Not saying those are my predictions, only that it’s not HR, I mean, irrational, to see these outcomes. That’s what surprised me.

The final placement points could well prove to be wrong, but it’s not hard to see this bonus production:

BERGE: 1 bonus W
RBY, NICK, VJ, & MARK: 2 bonus Ws
SHAK & AC: 3 bonus Ws
JASON & BO: 5 bonus Ws

You might be right... but to contrast... 2 years ago in the KYPSW pool I was the only guy who picked 5 champs. And I still lost. Why? Because I was way over optimistic particularly on bonus. The opposition is Top 33 in the country. They usually WIN! And rarely get bonused...

Yes Jason and Bo will get theirs (I am taking the under on 5 each - I am guessing they total 8). But guys who are not bonus machines will not. Shak did not have much bonus last year. Bonus at Hvy is really tough. Will Berge and RBY combine for 3? Against Top 33 opponents? Maybe not.

 

[diggerpup]

172 ??

170 is the all time record (Iowa, 1997)

Unfortunately, PSU is not getting near 170 with limited scoring potential at 3/10ths of the weights.

But I can see PSU getting 150 - which will be PLENTY for a very enjoyable & successful tournament!!!

———-
EDIT:

Quick Fact:

Since Iowa set their record in 1997 (170pts), only one team has reached 150 points:

2005 Oklahoma State (153)

Penn State’s highest under Cael is 2017, the year of our 5 champs (146.5).