I always enjoy reading various predictions/previews for the NCAA tournament. I have no illusions that anyone will feel the same about my less-than-expert effort…but I’ll throw this one out there anyway. An fyi…it is next to impossible to get accurate injury updates going into this tournament, so I did what any good reporter would do: I made them up as I went along. At the end, I take a shot at the team race and highlight some wrestlers who didn’t quite make the cut. It’s all a guess…but I had fun doing it.
125-Hard to see any outsiders cracking the top four here: The “Mini-taur” (half man, half bull, half size) #1 undefeated and defending champion Tomasello (tOSU), #2 Dance (VT), #3 Megaludis (PSU) and #4 Gilman (IOWA). Tomasello beat Dance, Dance beat Nico, Nico beat Gilman…but in every one of those matches, the decision came down to one move, one mistake, one stall call at the end. Dance may have the toughest quarter bracket, with Cruz (LEH), Schram (STAN) and Terao (AMER) lurking, not to mention a guy with a 15-1 record, Rodriguez (SIUE) right out of the chute. Guessing the top four seeds finish there, in some order. After that, put 5 through 15 in a bucket, shake ‘em up, dump ‘em out…and see how they land. #6 Klimara (OKST) has an interesting path: unseeded, but dangerous returning AA Youtsey (MICH) in Round 1, and the ultimate “Wrestler to be Named Later” #11 Rios on deck. Possible quarter with Nico after that.
133-Garrett (COR) undefeated, seeded #1 is the clear favorite here. Took out #4 defending champion Brewer (OKLA) in an early-season dual meet, and hasn’t looked back. How is it possible he’s never won an NCAA championship? #2 Clark (IOWA) probably doesn’t mind his spot in the other half away from those two, though if seeds hold, he’d see #3 “Clark’s not in my league” Richards (ILL) in the semis. Clark DID prove to be in Richards’ league in the conference tournament finals, thus earning the #2 here. Unfortunate #5 seed for Conaway (PSU), as he could meet #12 Taylor (WIS) in the Round of 16, only two weeks after losing to him twice at the Big Ten (Sorry…I just can’t do the “B1G” Ten thing) tournament, when Taylor proved to have way too many arms and legs for Jordan. Oddity: Five wrestlers in the field enter the tournament on 10+ match winning streaks: Garrett (32 straight), unseeded Brady (ASU; 15), unseeded Deutsch (RID; 13), Clark (12) and #6 DiCamillo (UVA; 10). Interesting first round match: #14 Alexander (MD) comes in having lost four of six, including the last two by a combined 25-2 at the Big Tens vs. unseeded Eicher (NIU), on a six-match winning streak. Unseeded Harding (OKST), a game opponent for anyone, gets Clark if he can get past #15 Alber (UNI) in Round 1, and a tough consolation path if he doesn’t.
141-Heil (OKST) deserves the #1 seed, no doubt. He might well win this. If he does, he’ll earn it. No freebies, starting with Gasca (MSU) in Round 1, possibly 2015 R12 #16 Cruz (LEH) next, then a potential quarter matchup with his personal Kryptonite, #8 Ward (UNC) in the quarters…if Ward can get past a very tough #9 Durso (F&M) first. Heil typically wrestles…and wins….close matches. Can he do it five times in a row without a hiccup? #2 McKenna, who lost two close nail biters to Heil, #3 Jack (NCST) and #4 Ashnault (RUT) all looked strong winning conference tournaments. Interesting first round matchup: #5 Manley (MIZZ), who MFF’ed out of the MAC tournament with a blown gasket vs. Gulibon (PSU), an unseeded returning AA (from 133), who recovered from a rocky season to finish 2nd in the Big Ten tournament. In my mind, it wouldn’t be shocking to see any of a dozen or so win the thing, or if any of the same group finished outside the top 8. IOWA has no entry here, as Grothus failed to survive the epic bad draw he received in the conference tournament.
149-I know they all are, but 149 feels like a really important weight in the team race. Undefeated #1 Retherford (PSU) has been dominating all year, and is counted on to hold serve for PSU. #2 Sorenson (IOWA) lost only to Retherford and needs to go deep for the Hawkeyes. #3 Mayes (MIZZ) leaked oil at the end of the year, but enters the tournament as Mizzou’s second highest seed. And keep an eye on #11 Collica (OKST), who’s been a holy terror since the Southern Scuffle, and probably represents the Cowboys’ biggest upside relative to seeding. A possible R16 match with former NCAA champion #6 Tsirtsis (NW) looms. Tsirtsis has endured a difficult 13-7 season, and it wouldn’t be much of an upset if Collica were to get past him, where Mayes might await in the quarters. Five of the top eight seeds are from the Big Ten. Clagon (RID), a returning AA who gave Retherford his closest match of the year (2-1), is the same quarter as Zain, but would have to get past #8 Henderson (UNC) and possibly #9 Oliver (CMU) to make it happen. Wouldn’t be the two biggest upsets in the tournament if he did.
157-The basis of the #1 seed for defending NCAA champion Martinez (ILL) is a skin of the teeth, seconds-of-riding-time, double overtime win over previously unbeaten and #1 ranked Nolf (PSU) in the Big Ten finals. This narrowest of victories carried more weight than Nolf’s season of domination, including a pin of Martinez (with a 7-3 lead, soon to have been 11-3) in the seeding determination. I’d have argued the other way, but…I can be OK with IMar at #1. Really. What I want to know is: Who came up with the formula that could rate Martinez #1, Nolf #3…and find a way to slide another guy, the undefeated Gantt (NCST), in between them at #2? Gantt at #1? Don’t buy it, but I see the case. Gantt at #3? That’s more like it. Could matter a lot, as the 2 might be looking at #7 Pack (SDST) in the quarters, whereas the 3 possibly gets the future (present?) star, the talented freshman with the tight genes, #6 Smith of OKST. Chance for a major point swing for the Cowboys vs. PSU, if Joe can pull it off. Gantt’s very good, but it would be no surprise for the Nolf-Smith winner to get past him to the final, leaving the loser to claw back through the backside. (That sounded painful.) #4 Miller (KENT), who should have made the finals last year, is dynamite, but suffered a possible syncopated percussion in his conference tournament. If he’s 100%, he’s a handful for anyone, maybe even including Martinez. Possible rematch with Palacio (COR) in quarters would be interesting; bet the KSU coach would keep an abacus on hand for that one. Top six seem very solid here. #13 Cooper (IOWA) could slide toward a lower AA position; he has improved greatly through the year.
165-Undefeated two-time defending NCAA champion and #1 seed Dieringer (OKST)…is not bad. Good bonus potential as far as the semis, where he’d like to create an early lead if he faces #4 Lewis (MIZZ). Lewis afforded AD about four minutes of uncharacteristic closeup mat study in their dual meet. In the bottom bracket, a possible Jordan family reunion looms in the semis. #2 Isaac (WIS) apparently got the family recipe in the will, as he earned two regular season victories over cousin and #3 Bo (tOSU) with the same strategy: 1) grab a takedown or three when you can; 2) don’t choose down. After that, this might be a good weight for some darkhorses to break through. #7 Perrotti is dangerous, but MFFed out of the Big Tens with a strained figment. OKST should gain big on other contenders here, as Morelli (PSU) and Rhoads (IOWA) are unseeded and will have to scratch for anything they can get. (And I would do 1,000 dances to see a Wilson-Pickett matchup before the tournament is over.)
174-#1 seed Nickal (PSU) has certainly been tested this year, with wins over #2 Realbuto (COR), #4 Ramos (UNC), #5 Brunson (ILL; twice), #6 Hammond (CSUB), #8 Epperly (VT), #10 Ottinger (CMU), and #11 Martin (tOSU; three times), losing only one match, to #12 Jackson (IND), by a single point. He’ll look to rack up some bonus points, while hoping to avoid a big mistake like the one that cost him the Jackson match. Quality goes deep here, with #3 Butler (MIZZ) and #7 Walters (OHIO) very solid, #9 Rogers (OKST) big move dangerous, and Meyer (IOWA) seeded 13 with a 23-4 record. I try to picture the final…sometimes I see Nickal. Sometimes I see Realbuto. I did see Nickal…at the Southern Scuffle. A shaky vote, but….
184-Maybe the most interesting weight class in the tournament from R16 on in. Despite a late season loss to the hard-charging #8 Boyd (OKST), defending champion and #1 Dean (COR) is the clear favorite. Brooks (IOWA) earned the #2 seed with a great mullet…I mean, great Big Ten tournament, but has to get past #7 Dudley (they split during the season, with Dudley earning a fall) or defending runnerup #10 Brown (LEH) just to make it out of the bottom quarter. Dean likely gets unseeded Dechow (ODU), a #4 seed last year, in the first round. All of last year’s All-Americans return, along with 2015 R12s Brooks and #16 McCutcheon (PSU), #9 Miller (NAVY), #11 Thomas (PENN) and #13 Renda (NCST). No picnics, nowhere. Miller has lost only to Dean (twice) since December 4, and enters the tournament with nine WBF in his last 12 matches, and wins over Boyd, Thomas, Dechow and Brown. With McCutcheon still struggling with the effects of an oblong medulla (a possible second round match with Dean isn’t likely to ease the pain), IOWA and OKST could get a real boost in this bunched field. IOWA needs big points from Brooks. So…will McCutcheon be added to “Dean’s List”? Will Dudley do right? Will Brooks babble? Do we dare doubt Thomas? OK…I’ll stop.
197-#1 McIntosh (PSU) is 28-0, with seven regular season wins against top 10 seeds. #2 and former NCAA champion Cox (MIZZ) is 28-1, with the only loss a DQ against #11 Wellington (OHIO) that was avenged in the MAC tournament final, 9-1. Then it gets a little weird. Pfarr (MINN), at 35-3, got the #3 seed over #4 Burak (IOWA), 23-2. Both lost 3-2 to McIntosh. Both lost to each other, Burak to Pfarr controversially at the buzzer in the regular season, Pfarr to Burak in SV in the conference semifinal. Pfarr’s third loss was to Cox, though he did have a win over #5 Hartmann (DUKE). If we look back to the 157 seeding, IMar got the #1 over Nolf purely on the basis that his head-to-head win occurred in the conference tournament, despite an earlier and more decisive loss to the same wrestler. By the same logic, how is Burak seeded below Pfarr? The difference could be important in the quarterfinal round, as the #4 could get the 26-1 Hartmann, who beat McIntosh in the quarters at last year’s nationals, while the #3 might see #6 Haught (VT), who finished 17-7, with three losses to Hartmann, and one each to McIntosh, Pfarr, #10 Huntley (MICH) and #13 Smith (WVU). Anyone who gets Hartmann has his hands full. Tough draw for Weigel (OKST). Six weeks ago, 197 looked like a big hole in the Cowboys’ lineup; but Weigel has shown great improvement, entering the field as the Big 12 champion. Congratulations, Preston…meet your first round opponent, Brett Pfarr. Still, Weigel will be a tough out for anyone who can’t get ahead early; he’s a bear on top.
285-World Champion and #2 seed Snyder (tOSU) faced two remaining questions entering the Big Ten tournament: 1) At about 230, can he hang with the really big boys? Answer: Yes, 7-4 in the finals over #5 Coon (MICH), in a match that didn’t seem that close. 2) OK, then…how about the “Gwiz”? Answer: TBD, most likely in the NCAA finals Saturday night. Both are undefeated, though Snyder has wrestled only six college matches, as he’s been jetting around the world beating up on Russians, Ukrainians, Iranis...even dancing on a Pole. #1 Gwiazdowski (NCST) is undefeated and the two-time defending NCAA champion, and a potential final between these two is probably the most eagerly anticipated match of the entire tournament for most fans. Beyond these two, #3 Walz has lost only to Gwiz (twice) and has beaten #5 Coon. #4 Marsden (OKST) at 27-1 looks to be a solid AA. And although his head, shoulders and toes looked fine, #11 Stoll (IOWA) carried an injury (hint: Google the song.) through the Big Ten tournament. If he’s near 100%, he’s a top eight guy. If not, he’s still big and strong and appears capable of scoring some team points, even bonus in the right circumstances.
Team Race
Penn State (120.0) At this number, no one catches PSU. PSU comes back to the field if: Megaludis drops to 4 (-4), Conaway falls to R12 (-5), Nolf and/or Nickal fall short (up to -15). Retherford will be tough to beat. Potential upside: #1 seed McIntosh to win (+5); Gulibon makes any kind of noise at 141 (+3). Also, might be some extra bonus on the table, with 16.5 figured in the 120.0 total. Realbuto (among others) is a real threat to Nickal. Nolf could/should finish 1, 2 or 3. At a total of 105 or so, it becomes a race.
Oklahoma State (106.5) Might be a ceiling figure for the Cowboys, but several…Collica, Boyd and Weigel in particular…have really come on strong at the end of the season, and Joe Smith is back. With Collica picked at 3, Boyd at 4 and Smith at 3, most of their upside is already written in, though #1 Heil could win it all (+7). The rest seem pretty well boxed in: Klimara and Marsden by the top guys at their weights, Harding and Weigel by their seeds. Rogers at 174 is a wild card; big move guy who can pin or be pinned by most anyone in the field.
Ohio State (86.5) Some top end guys, but probably lack support behind them to make a serious run. Tomasello and Snyder are possible/probable champions. Bo Jordan could move up a spot to 2 (+3), Micah maybe higher than 6 in a wide open weight class (+5), and you never know about DiJulius (+2). I’ve got Martin at 6…OK, maybe a bit of room upward for him (+4), but he comes in at 11. I’m not buying Courts this year. At 157, Ryan gets Joe Smith in the first round and no gimmes in the consis. No entries at 149 and 197. Ceiling looks like right around 100.
Iowa (80.0) The Hawkeyes can get there. Gilman could win at 125 (+7). (Their base is very confident vs. Tomasello.) Clark needs to make the finals, though beating Garrett there is a tall order. Brooks has to hold somewhere near his 2 seed (+10). Cooper and Rhoads have to wrestle hard…get what they can, pick up a little on the backside (+3). No 141. The “x” factors are Meyer and Stoll. If Stoll is OK physically, he’s a top 8 guy with bonus potential (+8). Meyer… low-AA? (+4). In a perfect world… altogether maybe 110? That could do it. But it would mean: five guys wrestling above seed, and the other five even, including the 125 beating a defending national champion, Brooks holding the 2 through a minefield, Stoll looking a lot better physically than he did two weeks ago, a couple other upsets…and no hiccups.
Cornell (76.5) With Garrett and Dean to win and Realbuto penciled in at 2, upside is limited. Of course, Realbuto is a real threat to win. (+5) Palacio is seeded 5 (behind Martinez, Gantt, Nolf and Miller) at a brutal weight class, the Big Red have no entry at 141, and the other five weight classes probably don’t have 10 points of upside among them. An 80+ score and a 3-6 finish would be solid.
NC State (76.5) No entries at 149 and 174, and I’ve got Jack winning 141, so no upward movement there. Obviously, Gwiz can win at 285 (+5). Hard to see Gantt beating Martinez or Nolf, but maybe holds on to third (+1). Figuring Rohskopf at his 5 seed, but see more possible downside than upside there. Renda’s very good in a wide open weight class. Already have him at 7 from a 13 seed…maybe higher? (+4) Otherwise, maybe sprinkle a few more to Fausz, Morris and Boykin (+3). Around 85-90 points probably keeps them in the top 5.
Virginia Tech (69.5) This seems too low for these guys. Definite upside here. I have Dance at 4. He could win it. (+9) Otherwise, though, I already have Epperly (3 vs. 8) and Brascetta (7 vs. 8) outperforming their seeds, and their other top scorers Chishko, Zavatsky and Walz matching, and they’re not entered at 133 and 149. I do have Haught, a 6 seed, as a DNP (+9). Dance and Haught alone could get them to the mid-80s, and in that 3-6 mix.
Missouri (62.5) Feel like I have to be missing the boat here. Not sure exactly what to think of several of their guys though. They have only 1 wrester ranked 1 or 2 (Cox at 2)…and I have him winning. They have a 3 (Mayes) and a 5 (Manley) who MFFed (disco fever and winking tiddly) out of the conference tournament. Mayes lost a couple matches late in the season, and Manley typically wrestles close, low-scoring matches in the first place. At 100%, they could match their seeds. (+12) No entry at 285. Anything from Synon at 133 would be gravy. Saw McGhee more early in the season…he was mostly backing up. Might have a bias there; he’s clearly gotten better; beat Peters to win the MAC (+4). Lewis is really tough (don’t choose down), but needs to beat Dieringer or a Jordan to move up from 4. Miklus…who knows? Say he gets hot. (+5) And Butler could wrestle to seed. (+5) No doubt, I’m influenced by possible injuries here. Feels like I’m about 10-15 points low, and they could hit the mid-80s just as well.
Failed to qualify:
125-Caroline Wozniacki, WTA. At 128 pounds, “The Woz” was three pounds over the limit when she weighed in for the Denmark qualifier. In a desperate, last ditch effort to hit the mark, she resorted to washing off the body paint left over from her Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition shoot. Unfortunately, that only got her down to 128.001. On the bright side, the previous attendance record for a weighin at a wrestling tournament any time, anywhere was shattered.
133-Mshangao, Indianapolis Zoo. Checking in at 130 pounds, this newborn giraffe calf was DQed in the first round of the Really Big Ten tournament for improper equipment. Mshangao’s protests…well…. bleats…fell on the deaf ears of the (blind?) referee, as he tried to relate, in giraffe language, the difficulties of finding wrestling shoes for hooves. When wrestling Mshangao, it is critical to get out from the bottom position, as the youngster is not “mat-broken,” and bladder control issues tend to manifest late in tough matches. And if that rascal ever gets “legs in”…..
141-Brody Grothus, Iowa. Have to feel bad for the guy. Starved himself for two years, worked hard, battling illness and injury, to try to get to 141 and win a spot in the Hawkeye lineup. Got there. Fought through downs, then ups after resuming competition mid-season this year. Entered the conference tournament feeling optimistic, but unseeded. Ouch. Drew #1 Micah Jordan (tOSU) in the first round, losing a narrow two-point decision. The wrestling gods can be cruel, and an upset in the winner’s bracket dropped #2 Thomas Thorn (MINN) in Brody’s lap in the first round of the consolations. Another slim two-point loss. All that work and sacrifice…no invitation to nationals. Not least, his well-chronicled journey spawned a 29-page, 1,121 post thread on an Iowa wrestling message board, which seems to, alas, have breathed its last. If nothing else…can we please get this guy a cheeseburger and a milkshake? Heck of an effort, sir.
149-Hunter Stieber, tOSU. Nothing funny to say about this; just wanted to recognize. What a shame for his college career to end the way it did. Even watching him try to come back from the elbow injuries was painful, and prior to the PSU-tOSU match, I found myself thinking: “I don’t know what the doctors are recommending for his rehab, but I’ll bet it doesn’t include Zain Retherford.” (It didn’t.) Then, after all the hard work to come back, a knee injury late in the season shuts him down for good. The Stiebers are class acts. Wish Hunter’s college career had had a happier ending.
157-Keg O’Beer, U. of Milwaukee. Initially weighing in a 160.5, Keg became the first competitor ever to lose as much as 3.5 pounds without ever stepping off the scale, thanks to some gracious tournament personnel and a nearby tap. Unfortunately, owing mainly to a lack of mobility and focus, as well as a barrel full of stall calls, Keg failed to qualify.
165-Jake Sorensen, University of Nebraska-College of Journalism and Mass Communications. Jake’s run to a possible NCAA championship was stallmated by…what else?...an illegal fist to the back in the first round of the first round of the campus intramural tournament. His opponent (The Lunch Lady) gained the early momentum with a quick turnaround, a reversal from neutral and three seconds for a near fall. After two good plays and a take around, Sorensen tried for random reversals from all three positions hoping for a square draw. But alas, he was unable to “enbark” on a successful “stragedy,” and it was TLL who had her hand raised at the center place. At least it didn’t go overtime. That gets confusing.
174- Random chimpanzee, San Diego Zoo. The male common chimp can stand up to 4’ tall and weigh 175 pounds (“walking around weight”; surely he can put down one banana on the way to the scale). With arms longer than their legs, chimps are deadly cradlers. However, no chimpanzee has qualified for the NCAA tournament since the infamous “poop-flinging” incident of ‘57. And since their brains are only 1/3 the size of humans’, chimps tend to gravitate toward politics over wrestling anyway. None are entered again this year, but I’d pay good money to watch someone try to ride out a chimp for two minutes.
184-Fred Flintsone, Bedrock U. Seems like Fred has been around forever in that hideous singlet and obnoxious “yabba-dabbing” after big wins. Fred will be unable to compete in Nationals this year due to injuries suffered in a bizarre incident involving an over-exuberant pet. Just as well, as experts agree that Flintsone has always lacked an effective third dimension to compete at this level.
197-Ashley and Mary Kate Olsen, Hollywood. Tipping the scales at 98.5 apiece, the twins were always dangerous in a Three Stooges, “Hey, look over there” kind of way, and could be hammers with their nasty two-on-one ride. Perform best under the bright lights. Sadly, there was that pesky drug test….
285-Suzy Sasquatch, Idaho. A distant relative of Tanner Hall, Suzy was rumored to have great potential, though there is no record of anyone actually having seen her wrestle. Or seen her at all, for that matter. One man claiming to be a former coach, speaking from his trailer in Montana, put down his beer long enough to tell us: “Oh, she exists, all right. Truth be told, I always been kinda sweet on her. I seen her take down a grizzly bear with the sweetest high crotch ever, dropped that rascal dead flat and showed him the Northern lights badder than stink off a skunk. Cute, too. I’ll tell ya one thing: that girl had the biggest feet I ever seen…Yeti still love her.”
And there you have it. Long, long way to go just for that one awful pun, wasn’t it?
SR/BHF
125-Hard to see any outsiders cracking the top four here: The “Mini-taur” (half man, half bull, half size) #1 undefeated and defending champion Tomasello (tOSU), #2 Dance (VT), #3 Megaludis (PSU) and #4 Gilman (IOWA). Tomasello beat Dance, Dance beat Nico, Nico beat Gilman…but in every one of those matches, the decision came down to one move, one mistake, one stall call at the end. Dance may have the toughest quarter bracket, with Cruz (LEH), Schram (STAN) and Terao (AMER) lurking, not to mention a guy with a 15-1 record, Rodriguez (SIUE) right out of the chute. Guessing the top four seeds finish there, in some order. After that, put 5 through 15 in a bucket, shake ‘em up, dump ‘em out…and see how they land. #6 Klimara (OKST) has an interesting path: unseeded, but dangerous returning AA Youtsey (MICH) in Round 1, and the ultimate “Wrestler to be Named Later” #11 Rios on deck. Possible quarter with Nico after that.
- Tomasello (tOSU); 2. Megaludis (PSU); 3. Gilman (IOWA); 4. Dance (VT); 5. Klimara (OKST); 6. Millhof (OKLA); 7. Rios (OREST); 8. Russell (EDIN) R12-Terao (AMER), McGhee (MIZZ), Schram (STAN), Peters (UNI)
133-Garrett (COR) undefeated, seeded #1 is the clear favorite here. Took out #4 defending champion Brewer (OKLA) in an early-season dual meet, and hasn’t looked back. How is it possible he’s never won an NCAA championship? #2 Clark (IOWA) probably doesn’t mind his spot in the other half away from those two, though if seeds hold, he’d see #3 “Clark’s not in my league” Richards (ILL) in the semis. Clark DID prove to be in Richards’ league in the conference tournament finals, thus earning the #2 here. Unfortunate #5 seed for Conaway (PSU), as he could meet #12 Taylor (WIS) in the Round of 16, only two weeks after losing to him twice at the Big Ten (Sorry…I just can’t do the “B1G” Ten thing) tournament, when Taylor proved to have way too many arms and legs for Jordan. Oddity: Five wrestlers in the field enter the tournament on 10+ match winning streaks: Garrett (32 straight), unseeded Brady (ASU; 15), unseeded Deutsch (RID; 13), Clark (12) and #6 DiCamillo (UVA; 10). Interesting first round match: #14 Alexander (MD) comes in having lost four of six, including the last two by a combined 25-2 at the Big Tens vs. unseeded Eicher (NIU), on a six-match winning streak. Unseeded Harding (OKST), a game opponent for anyone, gets Clark if he can get past #15 Alber (UNI) in Round 1, and a tough consolation path if he doesn’t.
- Garrett (COR); 2. Clark (IOWA); 3. Brewer (OKLA); 4. Taylor (WIS); 5. Richards (ILL); 6. DiCamillo (UVA); 7. Conaway (PSU); 8. Hall (ISU) R12-Montoya (NEB), Morris (NCST), DiJulius (tOSU), Kraisser (CAMP)
141-Heil (OKST) deserves the #1 seed, no doubt. He might well win this. If he does, he’ll earn it. No freebies, starting with Gasca (MSU) in Round 1, possibly 2015 R12 #16 Cruz (LEH) next, then a potential quarter matchup with his personal Kryptonite, #8 Ward (UNC) in the quarters…if Ward can get past a very tough #9 Durso (F&M) first. Heil typically wrestles…and wins….close matches. Can he do it five times in a row without a hiccup? #2 McKenna, who lost two close nail biters to Heil, #3 Jack (NCST) and #4 Ashnault (RUT) all looked strong winning conference tournaments. Interesting first round matchup: #5 Manley (MIZZ), who MFF’ed out of the MAC tournament with a blown gasket vs. Gulibon (PSU), an unseeded returning AA (from 133), who recovered from a rocky season to finish 2nd in the Big Ten tournament. In my mind, it wouldn’t be shocking to see any of a dozen or so win the thing, or if any of the same group finished outside the top 8. IOWA has no entry here, as Grothus failed to survive the epic bad draw he received in the conference tournament.
- Jack (NCST); 2. Ashnault (RUT); 3. Heil (OKST); 4. McKenna (STAN); 5. Durso (F&M); 6. Jordan (tOSU); 7. Chishko (VT); 8. Mecate (ODU) R12-Preston (HAR), Thorn (MINN), Manley (MIZZ), Ward (UNC)
149-I know they all are, but 149 feels like a really important weight in the team race. Undefeated #1 Retherford (PSU) has been dominating all year, and is counted on to hold serve for PSU. #2 Sorenson (IOWA) lost only to Retherford and needs to go deep for the Hawkeyes. #3 Mayes (MIZZ) leaked oil at the end of the year, but enters the tournament as Mizzou’s second highest seed. And keep an eye on #11 Collica (OKST), who’s been a holy terror since the Southern Scuffle, and probably represents the Cowboys’ biggest upside relative to seeding. A possible R16 match with former NCAA champion #6 Tsirtsis (NW) looms. Tsirtsis has endured a difficult 13-7 season, and it wouldn’t be much of an upset if Collica were to get past him, where Mayes might await in the quarters. Five of the top eight seeds are from the Big Ten. Clagon (RID), a returning AA who gave Retherford his closest match of the year (2-1), is the same quarter as Zain, but would have to get past #8 Henderson (UNC) and possibly #9 Oliver (CMU) to make it happen. Wouldn’t be the two biggest upsets in the tournament if he did.
- Retherford (PSU); 2. Sorenson (IOWA); 3. Collica (OKST); 4. Sueflohn (NEB); 5. Pantaleo (MICH); 6. Tsirtsis (NW); 7. Mayes (MO); 8. Henderson (UNC) R12-Henderson (UNC), Clagon (RID), Kraus (ASU), Oliver (CMU)
157-The basis of the #1 seed for defending NCAA champion Martinez (ILL) is a skin of the teeth, seconds-of-riding-time, double overtime win over previously unbeaten and #1 ranked Nolf (PSU) in the Big Ten finals. This narrowest of victories carried more weight than Nolf’s season of domination, including a pin of Martinez (with a 7-3 lead, soon to have been 11-3) in the seeding determination. I’d have argued the other way, but…I can be OK with IMar at #1. Really. What I want to know is: Who came up with the formula that could rate Martinez #1, Nolf #3…and find a way to slide another guy, the undefeated Gantt (NCST), in between them at #2? Gantt at #1? Don’t buy it, but I see the case. Gantt at #3? That’s more like it. Could matter a lot, as the 2 might be looking at #7 Pack (SDST) in the quarters, whereas the 3 possibly gets the future (present?) star, the talented freshman with the tight genes, #6 Smith of OKST. Chance for a major point swing for the Cowboys vs. PSU, if Joe can pull it off. Gantt’s very good, but it would be no surprise for the Nolf-Smith winner to get past him to the final, leaving the loser to claw back through the backside. (That sounded painful.) #4 Miller (KENT), who should have made the finals last year, is dynamite, but suffered a possible syncopated percussion in his conference tournament. If he’s 100%, he’s a handful for anyone, maybe even including Martinez. Possible rematch with Palacio (COR) in quarters would be interesting; bet the KSU coach would keep an abacus on hand for that one. Top six seem very solid here. #13 Cooper (IOWA) could slide toward a lower AA position; he has improved greatly through the year.
- Nolf (PSU); 2. Martinez (ILL); 3. Smith (OKST); 4. Gantt (NCST); 5. Miller (KENT); 6. Palacio (COR); 7. Brascetta (VT); 8. Murphy (MICH) R12-Cottrell (WVU), Barnes (MIZZ), Pack (SDST), Boyle (AMER)
165-Undefeated two-time defending NCAA champion and #1 seed Dieringer (OKST)…is not bad. Good bonus potential as far as the semis, where he’d like to create an early lead if he faces #4 Lewis (MIZZ). Lewis afforded AD about four minutes of uncharacteristic closeup mat study in their dual meet. In the bottom bracket, a possible Jordan family reunion looms in the semis. #2 Isaac (WIS) apparently got the family recipe in the will, as he earned two regular season victories over cousin and #3 Bo (tOSU) with the same strategy: 1) grab a takedown or three when you can; 2) don’t choose down. After that, this might be a good weight for some darkhorses to break through. #7 Perrotti is dangerous, but MFFed out of the Big Tens with a strained figment. OKST should gain big on other contenders here, as Morelli (PSU) and Rhoads (IOWA) are unseeded and will have to scratch for anything they can get. (And I would do 1,000 dances to see a Wilson-Pickett matchup before the tournament is over.)
- Dieringer (OKST); 2. Jordan (WIS); 3. Jordan (tOSU); 4. Lewis (MIZZ); 5. Rohskopf (NCST); 6. Wilson (NEB); 7. Staudenmayer (UNC); 8. Gobbo (HAR) R12-Preisch (LEH), Weatherman (ISU), Pickett (COR), Rodrigues (ILL)
174-#1 seed Nickal (PSU) has certainly been tested this year, with wins over #2 Realbuto (COR), #4 Ramos (UNC), #5 Brunson (ILL; twice), #6 Hammond (CSUB), #8 Epperly (VT), #10 Ottinger (CMU), and #11 Martin (tOSU; three times), losing only one match, to #12 Jackson (IND), by a single point. He’ll look to rack up some bonus points, while hoping to avoid a big mistake like the one that cost him the Jackson match. Quality goes deep here, with #3 Butler (MIZZ) and #7 Walters (OHIO) very solid, #9 Rogers (OKST) big move dangerous, and Meyer (IOWA) seeded 13 with a 23-4 record. I try to picture the final…sometimes I see Nickal. Sometimes I see Realbuto. I did see Nickal…at the Southern Scuffle. A shaky vote, but….
- Nickal (PSU); 2. Realbuto (COR); 3. Epperly (VT); 4. Ramos (UNC); 5. Butler (MIZZ); 6. Martin (tOSU); 7. Walters (OHIO); Ottinger (CMU) R12-Brunson (ILL), Hammond (CSUB), Meyer (IOWA), Rogers (OKST)
184-Maybe the most interesting weight class in the tournament from R16 on in. Despite a late season loss to the hard-charging #8 Boyd (OKST), defending champion and #1 Dean (COR) is the clear favorite. Brooks (IOWA) earned the #2 seed with a great mullet…I mean, great Big Ten tournament, but has to get past #7 Dudley (they split during the season, with Dudley earning a fall) or defending runnerup #10 Brown (LEH) just to make it out of the bottom quarter. Dean likely gets unseeded Dechow (ODU), a #4 seed last year, in the first round. All of last year’s All-Americans return, along with 2015 R12s Brooks and #16 McCutcheon (PSU), #9 Miller (NAVY), #11 Thomas (PENN) and #13 Renda (NCST). No picnics, nowhere. Miller has lost only to Dean (twice) since December 4, and enters the tournament with nine WBF in his last 12 matches, and wins over Boyd, Thomas, Dechow and Brown. With McCutcheon still struggling with the effects of an oblong medulla (a possible second round match with Dean isn’t likely to ease the pain), IOWA and OKST could get a real boost in this bunched field. IOWA needs big points from Brooks. So…will McCutcheon be added to “Dean’s List”? Will Dudley do right? Will Brooks babble? Do we dare doubt Thomas? OK…I’ll stop.
- Dean (COR); 2. Brown (LEH); 3. Avery (EDIN); 4. Boyd (OKST); 5. Zavatsky (VT); 6. Miller (NAVY); 7. Renda (NCST); 8. Brooks (IOWA) R12-Dudley (NEB), Miklus (MIZZ), Zillmer (NDST), Thomas (PENN)
197-#1 McIntosh (PSU) is 28-0, with seven regular season wins against top 10 seeds. #2 and former NCAA champion Cox (MIZZ) is 28-1, with the only loss a DQ against #11 Wellington (OHIO) that was avenged in the MAC tournament final, 9-1. Then it gets a little weird. Pfarr (MINN), at 35-3, got the #3 seed over #4 Burak (IOWA), 23-2. Both lost 3-2 to McIntosh. Both lost to each other, Burak to Pfarr controversially at the buzzer in the regular season, Pfarr to Burak in SV in the conference semifinal. Pfarr’s third loss was to Cox, though he did have a win over #5 Hartmann (DUKE). If we look back to the 157 seeding, IMar got the #1 over Nolf purely on the basis that his head-to-head win occurred in the conference tournament, despite an earlier and more decisive loss to the same wrestler. By the same logic, how is Burak seeded below Pfarr? The difference could be important in the quarterfinal round, as the #4 could get the 26-1 Hartmann, who beat McIntosh in the quarters at last year’s nationals, while the #3 might see #6 Haught (VT), who finished 17-7, with three losses to Hartmann, and one each to McIntosh, Pfarr, #10 Huntley (MICH) and #13 Smith (WVU). Anyone who gets Hartmann has his hands full. Tough draw for Weigel (OKST). Six weeks ago, 197 looked like a big hole in the Cowboys’ lineup; but Weigel has shown great improvement, entering the field as the Big 12 champion. Congratulations, Preston…meet your first round opponent, Brett Pfarr. Still, Weigel will be a tough out for anyone who can’t get ahead early; he’s a bear on top.
- Cox (MIZZ); 2. McIntosh (PSU); 3. Burak (IOWA); 4. Hartmann (DUKE); 5. Pfarr (MINN); 6. Harner (PRINCE); 7. Franklin (CSUB); 8. Wellington (OHIO) R12-Huntley (MICH), Studebaker (NEB), Boykin (NCST), Haught (VT)
285-World Champion and #2 seed Snyder (tOSU) faced two remaining questions entering the Big Ten tournament: 1) At about 230, can he hang with the really big boys? Answer: Yes, 7-4 in the finals over #5 Coon (MICH), in a match that didn’t seem that close. 2) OK, then…how about the “Gwiz”? Answer: TBD, most likely in the NCAA finals Saturday night. Both are undefeated, though Snyder has wrestled only six college matches, as he’s been jetting around the world beating up on Russians, Ukrainians, Iranis...even dancing on a Pole. #1 Gwiazdowski (NCST) is undefeated and the two-time defending NCAA champion, and a potential final between these two is probably the most eagerly anticipated match of the entire tournament for most fans. Beyond these two, #3 Walz has lost only to Gwiz (twice) and has beaten #5 Coon. #4 Marsden (OKST) at 27-1 looks to be a solid AA. And although his head, shoulders and toes looked fine, #11 Stoll (IOWA) carried an injury (hint: Google the song.) through the Big Ten tournament. If he’s near 100%, he’s a top eight guy. If not, he’s still big and strong and appears capable of scoring some team points, even bonus in the right circumstances.
- Snyder (tOSU); 2. Gwiazdowski (NCST); 3. Walz (VT); 4. Coon (MICH); 5. Marsden (OKST); 6. Dhesi (OREST); 7. Butler (STAN); 8. Kroells (MINN) R12-Stolfi (BUCK), Shaw (CLEST), Hall (ASU), DeJournette (APPST)
Team Race
Penn State (120.0) At this number, no one catches PSU. PSU comes back to the field if: Megaludis drops to 4 (-4), Conaway falls to R12 (-5), Nolf and/or Nickal fall short (up to -15). Retherford will be tough to beat. Potential upside: #1 seed McIntosh to win (+5); Gulibon makes any kind of noise at 141 (+3). Also, might be some extra bonus on the table, with 16.5 figured in the 120.0 total. Realbuto (among others) is a real threat to Nickal. Nolf could/should finish 1, 2 or 3. At a total of 105 or so, it becomes a race.
Oklahoma State (106.5) Might be a ceiling figure for the Cowboys, but several…Collica, Boyd and Weigel in particular…have really come on strong at the end of the season, and Joe Smith is back. With Collica picked at 3, Boyd at 4 and Smith at 3, most of their upside is already written in, though #1 Heil could win it all (+7). The rest seem pretty well boxed in: Klimara and Marsden by the top guys at their weights, Harding and Weigel by their seeds. Rogers at 174 is a wild card; big move guy who can pin or be pinned by most anyone in the field.
Ohio State (86.5) Some top end guys, but probably lack support behind them to make a serious run. Tomasello and Snyder are possible/probable champions. Bo Jordan could move up a spot to 2 (+3), Micah maybe higher than 6 in a wide open weight class (+5), and you never know about DiJulius (+2). I’ve got Martin at 6…OK, maybe a bit of room upward for him (+4), but he comes in at 11. I’m not buying Courts this year. At 157, Ryan gets Joe Smith in the first round and no gimmes in the consis. No entries at 149 and 197. Ceiling looks like right around 100.
Iowa (80.0) The Hawkeyes can get there. Gilman could win at 125 (+7). (Their base is very confident vs. Tomasello.) Clark needs to make the finals, though beating Garrett there is a tall order. Brooks has to hold somewhere near his 2 seed (+10). Cooper and Rhoads have to wrestle hard…get what they can, pick up a little on the backside (+3). No 141. The “x” factors are Meyer and Stoll. If Stoll is OK physically, he’s a top 8 guy with bonus potential (+8). Meyer… low-AA? (+4). In a perfect world… altogether maybe 110? That could do it. But it would mean: five guys wrestling above seed, and the other five even, including the 125 beating a defending national champion, Brooks holding the 2 through a minefield, Stoll looking a lot better physically than he did two weeks ago, a couple other upsets…and no hiccups.
Cornell (76.5) With Garrett and Dean to win and Realbuto penciled in at 2, upside is limited. Of course, Realbuto is a real threat to win. (+5) Palacio is seeded 5 (behind Martinez, Gantt, Nolf and Miller) at a brutal weight class, the Big Red have no entry at 141, and the other five weight classes probably don’t have 10 points of upside among them. An 80+ score and a 3-6 finish would be solid.
NC State (76.5) No entries at 149 and 174, and I’ve got Jack winning 141, so no upward movement there. Obviously, Gwiz can win at 285 (+5). Hard to see Gantt beating Martinez or Nolf, but maybe holds on to third (+1). Figuring Rohskopf at his 5 seed, but see more possible downside than upside there. Renda’s very good in a wide open weight class. Already have him at 7 from a 13 seed…maybe higher? (+4) Otherwise, maybe sprinkle a few more to Fausz, Morris and Boykin (+3). Around 85-90 points probably keeps them in the top 5.
Virginia Tech (69.5) This seems too low for these guys. Definite upside here. I have Dance at 4. He could win it. (+9) Otherwise, though, I already have Epperly (3 vs. 8) and Brascetta (7 vs. 8) outperforming their seeds, and their other top scorers Chishko, Zavatsky and Walz matching, and they’re not entered at 133 and 149. I do have Haught, a 6 seed, as a DNP (+9). Dance and Haught alone could get them to the mid-80s, and in that 3-6 mix.
Missouri (62.5) Feel like I have to be missing the boat here. Not sure exactly what to think of several of their guys though. They have only 1 wrester ranked 1 or 2 (Cox at 2)…and I have him winning. They have a 3 (Mayes) and a 5 (Manley) who MFFed (disco fever and winking tiddly) out of the conference tournament. Mayes lost a couple matches late in the season, and Manley typically wrestles close, low-scoring matches in the first place. At 100%, they could match their seeds. (+12) No entry at 285. Anything from Synon at 133 would be gravy. Saw McGhee more early in the season…he was mostly backing up. Might have a bias there; he’s clearly gotten better; beat Peters to win the MAC (+4). Lewis is really tough (don’t choose down), but needs to beat Dieringer or a Jordan to move up from 4. Miklus…who knows? Say he gets hot. (+5) And Butler could wrestle to seed. (+5) No doubt, I’m influenced by possible injuries here. Feels like I’m about 10-15 points low, and they could hit the mid-80s just as well.
Failed to qualify:
125-Caroline Wozniacki, WTA. At 128 pounds, “The Woz” was three pounds over the limit when she weighed in for the Denmark qualifier. In a desperate, last ditch effort to hit the mark, she resorted to washing off the body paint left over from her Sports Illustrated swimsuit edition shoot. Unfortunately, that only got her down to 128.001. On the bright side, the previous attendance record for a weighin at a wrestling tournament any time, anywhere was shattered.
133-Mshangao, Indianapolis Zoo. Checking in at 130 pounds, this newborn giraffe calf was DQed in the first round of the Really Big Ten tournament for improper equipment. Mshangao’s protests…well…. bleats…fell on the deaf ears of the (blind?) referee, as he tried to relate, in giraffe language, the difficulties of finding wrestling shoes for hooves. When wrestling Mshangao, it is critical to get out from the bottom position, as the youngster is not “mat-broken,” and bladder control issues tend to manifest late in tough matches. And if that rascal ever gets “legs in”…..
141-Brody Grothus, Iowa. Have to feel bad for the guy. Starved himself for two years, worked hard, battling illness and injury, to try to get to 141 and win a spot in the Hawkeye lineup. Got there. Fought through downs, then ups after resuming competition mid-season this year. Entered the conference tournament feeling optimistic, but unseeded. Ouch. Drew #1 Micah Jordan (tOSU) in the first round, losing a narrow two-point decision. The wrestling gods can be cruel, and an upset in the winner’s bracket dropped #2 Thomas Thorn (MINN) in Brody’s lap in the first round of the consolations. Another slim two-point loss. All that work and sacrifice…no invitation to nationals. Not least, his well-chronicled journey spawned a 29-page, 1,121 post thread on an Iowa wrestling message board, which seems to, alas, have breathed its last. If nothing else…can we please get this guy a cheeseburger and a milkshake? Heck of an effort, sir.
149-Hunter Stieber, tOSU. Nothing funny to say about this; just wanted to recognize. What a shame for his college career to end the way it did. Even watching him try to come back from the elbow injuries was painful, and prior to the PSU-tOSU match, I found myself thinking: “I don’t know what the doctors are recommending for his rehab, but I’ll bet it doesn’t include Zain Retherford.” (It didn’t.) Then, after all the hard work to come back, a knee injury late in the season shuts him down for good. The Stiebers are class acts. Wish Hunter’s college career had had a happier ending.
157-Keg O’Beer, U. of Milwaukee. Initially weighing in a 160.5, Keg became the first competitor ever to lose as much as 3.5 pounds without ever stepping off the scale, thanks to some gracious tournament personnel and a nearby tap. Unfortunately, owing mainly to a lack of mobility and focus, as well as a barrel full of stall calls, Keg failed to qualify.
165-Jake Sorensen, University of Nebraska-College of Journalism and Mass Communications. Jake’s run to a possible NCAA championship was stallmated by…what else?...an illegal fist to the back in the first round of the first round of the campus intramural tournament. His opponent (The Lunch Lady) gained the early momentum with a quick turnaround, a reversal from neutral and three seconds for a near fall. After two good plays and a take around, Sorensen tried for random reversals from all three positions hoping for a square draw. But alas, he was unable to “enbark” on a successful “stragedy,” and it was TLL who had her hand raised at the center place. At least it didn’t go overtime. That gets confusing.
174- Random chimpanzee, San Diego Zoo. The male common chimp can stand up to 4’ tall and weigh 175 pounds (“walking around weight”; surely he can put down one banana on the way to the scale). With arms longer than their legs, chimps are deadly cradlers. However, no chimpanzee has qualified for the NCAA tournament since the infamous “poop-flinging” incident of ‘57. And since their brains are only 1/3 the size of humans’, chimps tend to gravitate toward politics over wrestling anyway. None are entered again this year, but I’d pay good money to watch someone try to ride out a chimp for two minutes.
184-Fred Flintsone, Bedrock U. Seems like Fred has been around forever in that hideous singlet and obnoxious “yabba-dabbing” after big wins. Fred will be unable to compete in Nationals this year due to injuries suffered in a bizarre incident involving an over-exuberant pet. Just as well, as experts agree that Flintsone has always lacked an effective third dimension to compete at this level.
197-Ashley and Mary Kate Olsen, Hollywood. Tipping the scales at 98.5 apiece, the twins were always dangerous in a Three Stooges, “Hey, look over there” kind of way, and could be hammers with their nasty two-on-one ride. Perform best under the bright lights. Sadly, there was that pesky drug test….
285-Suzy Sasquatch, Idaho. A distant relative of Tanner Hall, Suzy was rumored to have great potential, though there is no record of anyone actually having seen her wrestle. Or seen her at all, for that matter. One man claiming to be a former coach, speaking from his trailer in Montana, put down his beer long enough to tell us: “Oh, she exists, all right. Truth be told, I always been kinda sweet on her. I seen her take down a grizzly bear with the sweetest high crotch ever, dropped that rascal dead flat and showed him the Northern lights badder than stink off a skunk. Cute, too. I’ll tell ya one thing: that girl had the biggest feet I ever seen…Yeti still love her.”
And there you have it. Long, long way to go just for that one awful pun, wasn’t it?
SR/BHF
Last edited:
