NCAA seeds discussions (brackets out Wednesday)

[wrestlingfan22]

(Mod - giving this topic it's own thread)

Little Rock locked up the Team Title with a victory in the 174-Pound Final, where Tyler Brennan (LR) majored 11-0 Murphy Menke (ORST)

2025 Pac-12 197-Pound Final - AJ Ferrari (CSUB) VS Stephen Little (LR)

Period 1:
Time for the Grand Finale! Ferrari looks thicker than Little. Circling & tying up. Ferrari up & down on both knees. Ferrari pushes forward. Ferrari shoots & gets a leg. Little sprawls back & fights it off. Back to circling & tying up. Ferrari fakes a shot. More tying up & circling. Ferrari reaches for a leg, but doesn't get there. The both drop to their knees, then work back to their feet, 1-min left. Little shoots, but Ferrari blocks him off. Ferrari pushes forward & has Little on the edge. Ferrari shoots, Little re-attacks & then they go out of bounds. Ferrari gets a stall warning, neutral restart. Ferrari shoots, Little counters, but nobody scores & the period comes to an end. 0-0

Period 2:
Little takes down. Ferrari appears to be breathing heavy between periods. Little gets to his feet, then rolls, but Ferrari stays with him. Ferrari breaks Little down on the edge & has 1-foot in. Little gets back to his base, but not for long & is bellied out again. Ferrari goes over 1-min RT. Out of bounds & restart. Ferrari has +1:11 RT. Little is still down, 48-sec left. Little gets to his feet & tries a granby roll, but Ferrari stays with him. Little keeps working & almost gets away, but they go out of bounds, restart, 20-sec left. Ferrari +1:39 RT. Little is now taking injury time. Little is off the mat. This may be concussion protocol. This is a pretty long review. After watching the replay it looks like Little landed on his face during on of his granby rolls. That may have caused the current situation.

We're back to action. Little is ready to roll! 20-sec left in the 2nd. Little is still down. Little gets to a quadpod, then rolls, but Ferrari stays with him. Little gets back to a quadpod, but Ferrari rides him out. 0-0, Ferrari +1:59 RT

Period 3:
Ferrari takes down. he gets to his feet & quickly gets the escape, 1-0. Ferrari still has + 1:55 RT. Circling & tying up & hand fighting. Little presses forward, Ferrari drops to a knee, then they're back to their feet circling. Little shoots, but no luck. Ferrari shoots, but doesn't get there, 30-sec left. Ferrari drives Little out of bounds. Stall warning on Little. Little is down & slow to get up. The trainer is out with him now. Little is ready to go. Tying up & hand fighting & pushing. Little shoots, but no luck. Little pushes forward, but runs out of time. Ferrari adds a RT point for the 2-0 victory.

AJ Ferrari DEC Stephen Little 2-0

AJ Ferrari is the 2025 197-Pound Pac-12 Champ!

ferrari is so boring but he is also really good at his style. Is he going to be the 2 seed most likely? Maybe 1 seed?

 

[jmadden1998]

ferrari is so boring but he is also really good at his style. Is he going to be the 2 seed most likely? Maybe 1 seed?

If Buchanan wins Big 10’s he will be the 1. If he doesn’t then it comes down to what Surber does at Big 12’s and if Barr or Cardenas win Big 10’s. AJ would be guaranteed win% against everyone as the only undefeated guy. It will depend on his final coaches rank and RPI. The others will get a bigger split of quality wins

 

[creamery freak]

ferrari is so boring but he is also really good at his style. Is he going to be the 2 seed most likely? Maybe 1 seed?

Someone should wear mirrored headgear when they wrestle AJ. He wouldn't be able to keep his eyes off himself and you could take him down at will!

 

[slushhead]

If Buchanan wins Big 10’s he will be the 1. If he doesn’t then it comes down to what Surber does at Big 12’s and if Barr or Cardenas win Big 10’s. AJ would be guaranteed win% against everyone as the only undefeated guy. It will depend on his final coaches rank and RPI. The others will get a bigger split of quality wins

Anyone other than Buchanan, Barr, or Cardenas at #1 is a crime against wrestling.

 

[Nitlion1986]

Anyone other than Buchanan, Barr, or Cardenas at #1 is a crime against wrestling.

Ferrari appears comfortable in the criminal element.

 

[Cowbell Man]

And for his trouble, he'll draw Carter or Keckeisen in Round 1.

lol. Still….the dream lives on.

 

[pish69]

Anyone other than Buchanan, Barr, or Cardenas at #1 is a crime against wrestling.

I just hope Josh is opposite AJ. He’s the best guy at the weight and I don’t think it’s close. I was hesitant to say that since we didn’t see AJ wrestle anyone of note this year until last night.

Easy to forget how good AJ is, even though I can’t stand him

 

[El-Jefe]

ferrari is so boring but he is also really good at his style. Is he going to be the 2 seed most likely? Maybe 1 seed?

I did the NCAA Seeding Math. To summarize:

If Buchanan wins B10s, then it's 1 Buchanan, 2 Ferrari, 3 Surber. If Barr makes B10 finals, then it's 4 Barr, 5 Beard, 6 Cardenas. If Cardenas makes B10 finals, then it's 4 Beard, 5 Cardenas, 6 Barr.

If Barr wins B10s, then it's 1 Barr, 2 Ferrari, 3 Buchanan, 4 Surber, 5 Beard, 6 Cardenas. This assumes Barr stays ahead of Ferrari in the Coaches' Poll -- which seems like a safe assumption since he already is, if he wins B10s.

if Cardenas wins B10s, then we have potential chaos. As-is: 1 Ferrari, 2 Surber, 3 Cardenas, 4 Buchanan, 5 Barr, 6 Beard. BUT if Cardenas passes Ferrari in the Coaches' Poll -- a distinct possibility by beating both Barr and Buchanan (they're currently 3-4) -- the seeding math says Cardenas > Ferrari > Surber > Cardenas. So then it goes to the full simulation round-robin, which I'm too lazy to do.

This all assumes Surber wins B12 -- and he's a heavy favorite to do so.

Current rankings are (Coaches Poll, RPI):
Buchanan - 1, 1
Barr - 2, 3
Cardenas - 3, 4
Ferrari - 4, 7
Beard - 5, 6
Surber - 6, 2

 

[west2east]

I just hope Josh is opposite AJ. He’s the best guy at the weight and I don’t think it’s close. I was hesitant to say that since we didn’t see AJ wrestle anyone of note this year until last night.

Easy to forget how good AJ is, even though I can’t stand him

If seeds hold at big 10s I think we see Barr and AJ on the same side. At the 2/3. Cardenas 4 Beard 5 Surber 6 and Stout/ Little 7 and 8

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

I did the NCAA Seeding Math. To summarize:

If Buchanan wins B10s, then it's 1 Buchanan, 2 Ferrari, 3 Surber. If Barr makes B10 finals, then it's 4 Barr, 5 Beard, 6 Cardenas. If Cardenas makes B10 finals, then it's 4 Beard, 5 Cardenas, 6 Barr.

If Barr wins B10s, then it's 1 Barr, 2 Ferrari, 3 Buchanan, 4 Surber, 5 Beard, 6 Cardenas. This assumes Barr stays ahead of Ferrari in the Coaches' Poll -- which seems like a safe assumption since he already is, if he wins B10s.

if Cardenas wins B10s, then we have potential chaos. As-is: 1 Ferrari, 2 Surber, 3 Cardenas, 4 Buchanan, 5 Barr, 6 Beard. BUT if Cardenas passes Ferrari in the Coaches' Poll -- a distinct possibility by beating both Barr and Buchanan (they're currently 3-4) -- the seeding math says Cardenas > Ferrari > Surber > Cardenas. So then it goes to the full simulation round-robin, which I'm too lazy to do.

This all assumes Surber wins B12 -- and he's a heavy favorite to do so.

Current rankings are (Coaches Poll, RPI):
Buchanan - 1, 1
Barr - 2, 3
Cardenas - 3, 4
Ferrari - 4, 7
Beard - 5, 6
Surber - 6, 2

My brain hurts now. Thanks. Hopefully it will recover by Sunday's finals.

AND "full simulation round-robin, which I'm too lazy to do" was super anticlimactic.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

If seeds hold at big 10s I think we see Barr and AJ on the same side. At the 2/3. Cardenas 4 Beard 5 Plott 6 and Stout/ Little 7 and 8

I want to see Barr gas AJ. Which round is it that is the worst for guys cutting a lot of weight (I forget)? Anyways, let Barr and AJ meet then.

What seeds do I need to root for to manifest this?

 

[82bordeaux]

Which round is it that is the worst for guys cutting a lot of weight (I forget)? Anyways, let Barr and AJ meet then.

I like our record in the semis.

 

[Fink]

You forgot Surber. If Surber wins, he will do no worse than tie AJF in the matrix.

AJF will split the following with all the top contenders (Buchanan, Barr, Cardenas, Surber, Beard) -- HTH and Common Opponents 17.5/17.5. He will win winning % (10/0) against everyone except possibly Buchanan and lose QWins (5-15) to all. Conference will be split 7.5/7.5 with BIG, Big 12 and EIWA champs. Likely he loses RPI to all (0/10).

Thus, his scores going into coaches ranking would be the following:

Buchanan (as champ) 55-35 (as runner-up) 42.5-37.5
Barr (as champ) 50/40 (as runner-up) 42.5/37.5
Cardenas (as champ) 50/40 (as runner-up) 42.5/37.5
Surber (as champ) 50/40
Beard (as champ) 50/40

BIG Champ will be the 1.

If BIG runner-up stays ahead of AJF, AJF is probably the 4-6.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

You forgot Surber. If Surber wins, he will do no worse than tie AJF in the matrix.

AJF will split the following with all the top contenders (Buchanan, Barr, Cardenas, Surber, Beard) -- HTH and Common Opponents 17.5/17.5. He will win winning % (10/0) against everyone except possibly Buchanan and lose QWins (5-15) to all. Conference will be split 7.5/7.5 with BIG, Big 12 and EIWA champs. Likely he loses RPI to all (0/10).

Thus, his scores going into coaches ranking would be the following:

Buchanan (as champ) 55-35 (as runner-up) 42.5-37.5
Barr (as champ) 50/40 (as runner-up) 42.5/37.5
Cardenas (as champ) 50/40 (as runner-up) 42.5/37.5
Surber (as champ) 50/40
Beard (as champ) 50/40

BIG Champ will be the 1.

If BIG runner-up stays ahead of AJF, AJF is probably the 4-6.

What say you @El-Jefe now that Fink has tried to induce a full on migraine?

 

[west2east]

You forgot Surber. If Surber wins, he will do no worse than tie AJF in the matrix.

AJF will split the following with all the top contenders (Buchanan, Barr, Cardenas, Surber, Beard) -- HTH and Common Opponents 17.5/17.5. He will win winning % (10/0) against everyone except possibly Buchanan and lose QWins (5-15) to all. Conference will be split 7.5/7.5 with BIG, Big 12 and EIWA champs. Likely he loses RPI to all (0/10).

Thus, his scores going into coaches ranking would be the following:

Buchanan (as champ) 55-35 (as runner-up) 42.5-37.5
Barr (as champ) 50/40 (as runner-up) 42.5/37.5
Cardenas (as champ) 50/40 (as runner-up) 42.5/37.5
Surber (as champ) 50/40
Beard (as champ) 50/40

BIG Champ will be the 1.

If BIG runner-up stays ahead of AJF, AJF is probably the 4-6.

I wrote Plott instead of Surber 🤷 I edited my post . I have Surber at the 6. My opinion is we probably see AJ at the 3

 

[District four]

You forgot Surber. If Surber wins, he will do no worse than tie AJF in the matrix.

AJF will split the following with all the top contenders (Buchanan, Barr, Cardenas, Surber, Beard) -- HTH and Common Opponents 17.5/17.5. He will win winning % (10/0) against everyone except possibly Buchanan and lose QWins (5-15) to all. Conference will be split 7.5/7.5 with BIG, Big 12 and EIWA champs. Likely he loses RPI to all (0/10).

Thus, his scores going into coaches ranking would be the following:

Buchana

n (as champ) 55-35 (as runner-up) 42.5-37.5
Barr (as champ) 50/40 (as runner-up) 42.5/37.5
Cardenas (as champ) 50/40 (as runner-up) 42.5/37.5
Surber (as champ) 50/40
Beard (as champ) 50/40

BIG Champ will be the 1.

If BIG runner-up stays ahead of AJF, AJF is probably the 4-6.

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

When do the NCAA final seeds come out?

 

[ccdiver]

When do the NCAA final seeds come out?

Of late they have been doing seed/bracket reveals on the Wednesday of the week preceding the tournament. (So 8 days before the tournament.)

 

[jmadden1998]

Of late they have been doing seed/bracket reveals on the Wednesday of the week preceding the tournament. (So 8 days before the tournament.)

Correct, they will release the brackets on Mar 12.

 

[El-Jefe]

What say you @El-Jefe now that Fink has tried to induce a full on migraine?

NCAA Seeding is not a ranking of each guy in each category.

It's a full round-robin of simulated matches, using the seeding criteria to score each sim match.

In the sim matches, Surber:
- loses to Ferrari
- loses to the B10 champ -- Buchanan, Barr, and Cardenas each beat him if they win B10s
- loses to Buchanan regardless, because of H2H
- beats Barr and Cardenas if they don't win B10s

Surber is capped at 3rd. This is a little different from what I had posted above in the "Cardenas wins B10s" scenario, because I had not updated Surber's Win% after his loss to Buchanan.

 

[wrestlingfan22]

I did the NCAA Seeding Math. To summarize:

If Buchanan wins B10s, then it's 1 Buchanan, 2 Ferrari, 3 Surber. If Barr makes B10 finals, then it's 4 Barr, 5 Beard, 6 Cardenas. If Cardenas makes B10 finals, then it's 4 Beard, 5 Cardenas, 6 Barr.

If Barr wins B10s, then it's 1 Barr, 2 Ferrari, 3 Buchanan, 4 Surber, 5 Beard, 6 Cardenas. This assumes Barr stays ahead of Ferrari in the Coaches' Poll -- which seems like a safe assumption since he already is, if he wins B10s.

if Cardenas wins B10s, then we have potential chaos. As-is: 1 Ferrari, 2 Surber, 3 Cardenas, 4 Buchanan, 5 Barr, 6 Beard. BUT if Cardenas passes Ferrari in the Coaches' Poll -- a distinct possibility by beating both Barr and Buchanan (they're currently 3-4) -- the seeding math says Cardenas > Ferrari > Surber > Cardenas. So then it goes to the full simulation round-robin, which I'm too lazy to do.

This all assumes Surber wins B12 -- and he's a heavy favorite to do so.

Current rankings are (Coaches Poll, RPI):
Buchanan - 1, 1
Barr - 2, 3
Cardenas - 3, 4
Ferrari - 4, 7
Beard - 5, 6
Surber - 6, 2

What is Stout's ceiling? just curious because a 2 loss conference champ I would expect to be really high, though it seems 197 is incredibly deep this year

 

[Fink]

I referenced Surber because he had been left off (for Plott) the earlier email. El Jefe not sure how you came to the conclusion that AJF beats Surber in the sim. I have it as follows (assuming Surber championship):

Surber AJF
12.5 HTH 12.5
5 Common 5
7.5 Champ 7.5
10 RPI 0
0 Win % 10
15 Q Wins 5
? Coaches ?

50 40

 

[El-Jefe]

What is Stout's ceiling? just curious because a 2 loss conference champ I would expect to be really high, though it seems 197 is incredibly deep this year

Guessing capped at 7th, assuming none of the 6 guys above get upset. Being 10th in the coaches poll hurts.

Also he's 5th in RPI. Ahead of Beard, but his H2H loss to Beard counts more.

His Win% only beats Surber -- but he'll lose Quality Wins to Surber.

 

[El-Jefe]

I referenced Surber because he had been left off (for Plott) the earlier email. El Jefe not sure how you came to the conclusion that AJF beats Surber in the sim. I have it as follows (assuming Surber championship):

Surber AJF
12.5 HTH 12.5
5 Common 5
7.5 Champ 7.5
10 RPI 0
0 Win % 10
15 Q Wins 5
? Coaches ?

50 40

Ferrari is already 3 spots ahead of Surber in the coaches poll. He's not losing that category. So best case for Surber is a sim H2H tie.

In which case, sure, maybe it could be 2-3 or 3-2 if Buchanan wins B10s.

If Buchanan loses at B10s, then Surber finishes below Ferrari in the full round robin.

 

[Psalm 1 guy]

lol. Still….the dream lives on.

It's a win for him either way as he will always be a B1G champion, gets to see the NCAA tournament in person and will most likely be eating all he wants by Thursday night! On the other side of the coin, you could see the devastation in his opponent's face after the match. He was three seconds from making the NCAA tournament and poof! PAC 12 was only allotted one auto qualifier for that weight and I am not sure if the Cal Poly wrestler's record is good enough to get an at-large bid or not.

 

[El-Jefe]

He was three seconds from making the NCAA tournament and poof! PAC 12 was only allotted one auto qualifier for that weight and I am not sure if the Cal Poly wrestler's record is good enough to get an at-large bid or not.

He's out. Pac 12 qualified one 184 because that's the minimum. None of their 184s earned that allocation, and none will be eligible for an at-large.

None are .700, none are ranked, and the best RPI is 39th.

 

[5q]

OF LL and Davis end up 4th, what’s everyone thinking their over all seeds would be at NCaa?

 

[wrestlingfan22]

@El-Jefe
How on earth is 141 going to be seeded?

 

[El-Jefe]

@El-Jefe
How on earth is 141 going to be seeded?

Guessing Happel gets the 1 if he beats Jamison in the B12 finals. He's 4th in the coaches poll and beat Hardy H2H. Has not faced Beau, Mendez, or Alirez this year.

That's just a guess. He also doesn't do as well in Win % or RPI, relative to the top guys.

Mathematically, there's a scenario where Beau or Mendez could finish 3rd at B10s and still get the 1 seed at nationals. But I would expect that to be overruled by the committee with their flexibility to change seeds +/- 3 spots -- cannot see NCAA giving the 1 seed to a conference 3rd placer over every conference champ.

 

[Used2BEerie]

@El-Jefe
How on earth is 141 going to be seeded?

 

[wrestlingfan22]

Guessing Happel gets the 1 if he beats Jamison in the B12 finals. He's 4th in the coaches poll and beat Hardy H2H. Has not faced Beau, Mendez, or Alirez this year.

That's just a guess. He also doesn't do as well in Win % or RPI, relative to the top guys.

Mathematically, there's a scenario where Beau or Mendez could finish 3rd at B10s and still get the 1 seed at nationals. But I would expect that to be overruled by the committee with their flexibility to change seeds +/- 3 spots -- cannot see NCAA giving the 1 seed to a conference 3rd placer over every conference champ.

Depending on how seeds work out we could see some combo of Mendez/Bartlett/Alirez meeting in the quarters that is insane

 

[El-Jefe]

Depending on how seeds work out we could see some combo of Mendez/Bartlett/Alirez meeting in the quarters that is insane

IMO it's pretty realistic that two of them meet as the 3-6 or the 4-5 in the quarters. Doesn't mean it'll happen, but quite realistic.

 

[RB-Old]

Is it me or does LL have a legit claim to the #1 seed at nationals?

 

[El-Jefe]

Is it me or does LL have a legit claim to the #1 seed at nationals?

He's 8th in the coaches poll. Robinson (4) and Ventresca (5) are in the ACC finals -- it'll likely be one of them, after Spratley (3) lost the in B12 finals.

Ramos might be more likely than Lilledahl in the full round-robin simulation, despite the H2H match and conference placement. Lilledahl obviously beats him in their sim match, but Ramos might beat more others in the sim due to coaches rank + RPI + Quality Wins.

 

[jmadden1998]

He's 8th in the coaches poll. Robinson (4) and Ventresca (5) are in the ACC finals -- it'll likely be one of them, after Spratley (3) lost the in B12 finals.

Ramos might be more likely than Lilledahl in the full round-robin simulation, despite the H2H match and conference placement. Lilledahl obviously beats him in their sim match, but Ramos might beat more others due to coaches rank + RPI + Quality Wins.

But what if he deserves it? Where does that factor into the matrix? LOL!

 

[PAHURDLER]

He's 8th in the coaches poll. Robinson (4) and Ventresca (5) are in the ACC finals -- it'll likely be one of them, after Spratley (3) lost the in B12 finals.

Ramos might be more likely than Lilledahl in the full round-robin simulation, despite the H2H match and conference placement. Lilledahl obviously beats him in their sim match, but Ramos might beat more others in the sim due to coaches rank + RPI + Quality Wins.

Ventresca wins.

 

[El-Jefe]

But what if he deserves it? Where does that factor into the matrix? LOL!

Lol, we all know how much "deserves it" counts.

BTW, Ventresca won ACCs in OT over Robinson. So now we have a situation where the coaches top 2 both finished 3rd in their conference, and the 3-4 guys lost in their conference finals.

 

[El-Jefe]

Good news for Kerk -- Trumble lost to Pitzer in the ACC semis. So he loses coaches rank + RPI + conference placement to Kerk, at least.

Kerk is gonna be the 3 seed now, or the 2 if Hendrickson somehow loses.

 

[jmadden1998]

Lol, we all know how much "deserves it" counts.

BTW, Ventresca won ACCs in OT over Robinson. So now we have a situation where the coaches top 2 both finished 3rd in their conference, and the 3-4 guys lost in their conference finals.

Haha! Right. Every year there is a formula and every year people complain about seeding.

 

[El-Jefe]

Haha! Right. Every year there is a formula and every year people complain about seeding.

I think the formula could use an overhaul. Some of the categories really don't make sense, others are redundant or improperly weighted.

But the formula is known, public, and easily found on Google. Therefore it's transparent, provided anybody out there is willing to put together the spreadsheet. (Seton Hall Pirate and Wrestling Pervert have done this in the past.)

Also, the shortcut is well known: seeds generally line up closely with Coaches Rank. Start there, then tweak for H2H, and you're pretty close.