NCAA seeds discussions (brackets out Wednesday)
- Thread starter wrestlingfan22
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#1 at 141 likely coming down to Happel or Bartlett. Both beat Hardy H2H.
149 seeds will be 1 Henson, 2 Lovett, 3 Van Ness. Parco, McNeil, and Johnson will be 4-6 in some order.
Hoping Shayne can figure out Ridge in 2 weeks.
Who is the likely 4 seed or does it not really matter. Probably Levi, O’Toole, and Hamiti and then a large gap
Much prefer Levi to get Hamiti than KOT in the semis. And he’ll get him.
Probably Brevin Cassella from Binghamton or Garrett Thompson from Ohio.
Edit: I see Thompson beat Cassella head to head so Thompson is likely the guy.
Thompson beat Cassella this year. Otherwise, Cassella would have him in RPI and Win %.
It's likely gonna come down to where Kharchla gets ranked by the coaches, as he'll have RPI and probably QW over Thompson. But Thompson has Win% and Conference Finish. Common Opponents is a wash between them.
It will be interesting to see where Cannon from tOSU ends up in the coaches rankings. He should be a top 4-5 seed.
Mathematically he probably does. He beats Kerk in WIn %, RPI, and Conference Placement.
Hopefully cooler heads prevail in the NCAA Wrestling Committee. "Good losses" is among the criteria the committee can use to adjust the math seeds.
BTW, this is evidence as to why Conference Placement is a total BS criterion. There is no Olympic Gold Medalist in EIWAs. Pitzer, Hoffman, Trevor Tinker, and Ashton Davis shouldn't win that category over Kerk either -- because that category shouldn't exist in the primary math.
Conference placement should only be a tiebreaker if wrestlers are even after all the other criteria.
Among the tiebreakers, not the only one and only used with discretion.
If they want to say the B10 #4 > B12 #5, OK. If they want to say the Pac12 #3 > B10 #4, well, you gotta look at the specific competitors. Maybe at 197 this year, otherwise ...
You know Nomad is going to be gleefully predicting Trephan 3 and Kerk 4 and roll out his nerdy formula. The Committee not adjusting for logic would not surprise me
Oh, it gets better than that.
If they go strictly by NCAA Seeding Math, then Hendrickson likely gets the 1 over Steveson, because Steveson didn't qualify for an RPI.
It would come down to Quality Wins. Hendrickson has 1 more of them. Steveson has the single best win (Kerk). But Hendrickson has beaten Trumble 2x and Schultz 2x. So it looks like Hendrickson would win both the quantity and quality parts of the QW equation.
If the committee adjusts for Steveson (as they should), then they can't really justify stiffing Kerk.
197 is going to be really interesting.
AJF is only undefeated but wrestled nobody till PAC12s
Cardenas and Buch only have 1 loss with B10 schedule
Beard only has 1 loss and is EIWA Champ
M. Stout has 2 losses (one to Beard) and has won 20 straight as ACC Champ
Barr has 3 losses (One by INJ DEF) but wins over Beard and Cardenas (is also seemingly injured)
Surber has only 3 losses but just lost to Voelker in B12 finals
Little has only 3 losses to Barr AJF and Surber
Voelker only has 4 losses but just won B12s
Munoz only has 4 losses (One a MFF) but has hardly wrestled and no major wins
Salazar and Braungel are in the mix as well but both have 6 losses. There are also lots of guys with good records against weak competition like L.Stout
AJF is only undefeated but wrestled nobody till PAC12s
Cardenas and Buch only have 1 loss with B10 schedule
Beard only has 1 loss and is EIWA Champ
M. Stout has 2 losses (one to Beard) and has won 20 straight as ACC Champ
Barr has 3 losses (One by INJ DEF) but wins over Beard and Cardenas (is also seemingly injured)
Surber has only 3 losses but just lost to Voelker in B12 finals
Little has only 3 losses to Barr AJF and Surber
Voelker only has 4 losses but just won B12s
Munoz only has 4 losses (One a MFF) but has hardly wrestled and no major wins
Salazar and Braungel are in the mix as well but both have 6 losses. There are also lots of guys with good records against weak competition like L.Stout
I'm good with Hendrickson at #1 and Kerk at #4 or #5. That works.
You don’t think Paniro could get the 3? I’d have to see the matrix. SVN has win percentage and coaches/RPI which should carry him maybe?
There’s no world in which AJ gets the 1. He’s gonna be way behind Cardenas in multiple categories
He's well behind Shayne in both RPI and coaches poll.
Likely behind in Quality Wins too, because he spent quite a bit of time at 157/165 which doesn't count.
He was behind Cardenas in the latest coaches rank. Don’t see why that would change now.
Maybe Corby gets a vote now?
That was obviously sarcasm but some missed it 🤷
I believe “quality wins” are defined as wins against any competitor that’s makes the 33 man field (see pg 8), so they both would have significantly more QWs. This slide deck is a great run-down of their process:
It is. Hendrickson = 9 (once Trumble gets an at-large which is a lock), Steveson = 8.
That's quantity. Hendrickson probably also gets quality.
B1G Tournament carnage…
13 MFF’s by 11 wrestlers
8/11 are AQ’s and WC for Minto
Hopefully all are good to wrestle in 2 weeks.
13 MFF’s by 11 wrestlers
8/11 are AQ’s and WC for Minto
Hopefully all are good to wrestle in 2 weeks.
But he's always #1 in Corby's heart...
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