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NCAA seeds for Penn State

dmm53

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Feb 4, 2017
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Thoughts on where guys end up being seeded?

125 ----
133 No seed
141 8-10 ? (loss to Carr might drop him from 8th)
149 1
157 2 or 3? (Hidlay at 1; Kemmerer and Lavallee in the mix)
165 3 ? (IMar and McFadden seeded ahead?)
174 2
184 1
197 7 ?
285 3 or 4 (Nevills beat Stoll twice and Kasper once, but Kasper only has 2 losses on the season)
 
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Mark is the undefeated returning champ, I just do not see how you can punish him for wrestling in a pre season match that meant nothing.
I agree, but I suspect that Valencia might get a higher coaches' ranking and end up with the #1. Not sure where they both stand on RPI and quality wins but the key thing is that they will be placed on opposite sides of the bracket. More interesting to speculate where Amine, Bo Jordan, Lewis (undefeated), Lujan and Kutler will be seeded.
 
Thoughts on where guys end up being seeded?

125 ----
133 No seed
141 8-10 ? (loss to Carr might drop him from 8th)
149 1
157 2 or 3? (Hidlay at 1; Kemmerer and Lavallee in the mix)
165 3 ? (IMar and McFadden seeded ahead?)
174 2
184 1
197 7 ?
285 3 or 4 (Nevills beat Stoll twice and Kasper once, but Kasper only has 2 losses on season)
 
Generally agree. I think Lee will be in top 8. Zacharl lost this weekend. Nevills number 3. I think Hall should be 1, but that might not happen. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Cenzo 2.
 
Generally agree. I think Lee will be in top 8. Zacharl lost this weekend. Nevills number 3. I think Hall should be 1, but that might not happen. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Cenzo 2.
Cenzo won't be higher than 3. McFadden is still undefeated.
 
Just for f*n I'll give my guesses on seeds. I'm only going to do top 4 + my PSU guess for each weight.

125:

1. Cruz
2. Tomasello
3. Suriano
4. Lee

133:

1. Gross
2. Micic
3. Brock
4. Pletcher
Keener unseeded
141:

1. Meredith
2. Eierman
3. Diakomihalis
4. McKenna

I could see McKenna getting the 3....2 time champ Dean Heil looking at a 5 or 6 I'd think.
Nick Lee probably looking at around a 10.

149

1. Zain
2. Sorensen
3. Leeth
4. Hayes? Kolodzik? Heilmann? Lewallen? It's tough to call the 4th seed...

157

1. Nolf
2. Hidlay
3. Lavallee
4. Kemerer

Guys like Shields and Pantaleo could argue for the 4 seed...but I like the 1 loss Kemdawg

165

1. Martinez
2. McFadden
3. Joseph
4. Walsh

174

1. Valencia
2. Hall
3. Lewis
4. Kutler

Amine, Jordan, Lujan, and Ramos likely round out the top 8 in some order.

184.

1. Nickel
2. Martin
3. Renda
4. Preisch

197

1. Darmstadt
2. Moore
3. Miklus
4. Haught

I see Rasheed being seeded somewhere in the 6-8 range.

285

1. Snyder
2. Coon
3. Kasper
4. Nevills
 
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I agree, but I suspect that Valencia might get a higher coaches' ranking and end up with the #1.

I’m curious how heavily the coaches’ ranking is weighted? If it’s a significant factor, makes me wonder if there’s any “PSU fatigue” factor that could help tilt it toward Valencia and away from Hall. Coaches are only human (most, anyway) and it’s not hard to imagine some growing weary of PSU’s dynastic run. When coupled with the All Stars HTH that’s not supposed to count, voters with such tendencies might be emboldened. In the end, it doesn’t really change anything, but it’s interesting to contemplate.
 
I see that A.J. Nevills qualified by finishing second in the Big 12 conference to Derek White and has quietly put together a solid 25-8 freshman campaign. So, I suppose there is a chance (basically 6.25%) that he runs into his brother Nick in the first round and a small chance they see each other in the second round or, less likely, in a consolation match. Have two brothers ever wrestled each other at NCAAs? I know that the Jordan cousins wrestled each other many times. (I had to wrestle my own brother once; didn't enjoy the match.)
 
I’m curious how heavily the coaches’ ranking is weighted? If it’s a significant factor, makes me wonder if there’s any “PSU fatigue” factor that could help tilt it toward Valencia and away from Hall. Coaches are only human (most, anyway) and it’s not hard to imagine some growing weary of PSU’s dynastic run. When coupled with the All Stars HTH that’s not supposed to count, voters with such tendencies might be emboldened. In the end, it doesn’t really change anything, but it’s interesting to contemplate.

Yes, the All Star "non result" result is a little like telling a jury to ignore something that has been said or done. The brain still frequently latches onto it and treats it as significant. For example, don't think of an elephant right now.
 
I see that A.J. Nevills qualified by finishing second in the Big 12 conference to Derek White and has quietly put together a solid 25-8 freshman campaign. So, I suppose there is a chance (basically 6.25%) that he runs into his brother Nick in the first round and a small chance they see each other in the second round or, less likely, in a consolation match. Have two brothers ever wrestled each other at NCAAs? I know that the Jordan cousins wrestled each other many times. (I had to wrestle my own brother once; didn't enjoy the match.)

I found this article on sibling wrestlers but didn't see any instance therein where they wrestled each other at NCAAs.
http://www.maxpreps.com/news/LKI-sQ...tz-brothers-top-list-of-sibling-wrestlers.htm
 
I’m curious how heavily the coaches’ ranking is weighted? If it’s a significant factor, makes me wonder if there’s any “PSU fatigue” factor that could help tilt it toward Valencia and away from Hall. Coaches are only human (most, anyway) and it’s not hard to imagine some growing weary of PSU’s dynastic run. When coupled with the All Stars HTH that’s not supposed to count, voters with such tendencies might be emboldened. In the end, it doesn’t really change anything, but it’s interesting to contemplate.
This is a post from Roar in a previous thread...

1) Head-to-head competition — 25 percent
2) Quality wins — 20 percent
3) CR — 15 percent
4) Results against common opponents — 10 percent
5) RPI — 10 percent
6) Qualifying event placement — 10 percent
7) Win % — 10 percent

-- Nothing for #1.
-- For #2, Hall has #4 Kutler (2x), #5 Amine, #6 Jordan (and could get him again), #12 Lydy, #18 Finesilver, and #20 Sebastian (may get him again at B1G's). Valencia has #4 Kutler, #5 Amine, #6 Jordan (2x), #7 Lujan (2x), #9 Subjeck, #10 Mejias, and #11 Kocer (2x). He could get Subjeck again at Pac-12's. Advantage slightly to Valencia.
-- For #3, right now, it's Valencia
-- For #4, it's a wash.
-- For #5, right now, it's Hall...and should stay that way through the tournament.
-- For #6, unknown...both have to win their tournament for this to be a wash.
-- For #7, it's a wash.

Right now, by the criteria, by the slightest of margins, it's Valencia, with a slightly tougher schedule (#4, #5, #6 2x, #7 2x, #9, #10, #11 2x, vs #4 2x, #5, #6, #12, #18, #20). If Hall wins the B1G's and the Coaches Ranking flips, Hall should be #1 Seed.

46 Feb 13, 2018
Last edited:Feb 13, 2018
 
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In which case, returning undefeated champion is still stuck in my head.
3052455.jpg
 
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I agree, but I suspect that Valencia might get a higher coaches' ranking and end up with the #1. Not sure where they both stand on RPI and quality wins but the key thing is that they will be placed on opposite sides of the bracket. More interesting to speculate where Amine, Bo Jordan, Lewis (undefeated), Lujan and Kutler will be seeded.
Exactly, before we all start complaining about if Mark gets a #2, we really need to see how the bracket shapes up. Possible #2 has easier path than #1.
 
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Just for f*n I'll give my guesses on seeds. I'm only going to do top 4 + my PSU guess for each weight.
165

1. Martinez
2. McFadden
3. Joseph
4. Walsh
Wait Alex Marinelli won't get a top 4 seed? You obviously don't know what your talking about! haha He just had 1 bad tournament with 3 losses. Hawkeye fans will not be pleased with that.
 
Could see Nick Lee getting Heil or Jack in round 2. That doesn't make me happy.
 
I think Nolf is looking at the 2 or 3 seed to be honest. I see Hidlay getting the 1, Lavallee could get the 2 since his only loss is to Hidlay.

If Hidlay gets the 1 I wouldn't argue. Lavallee over Nolf would surprise me a bit. He's a conference champ, so I guess he's got that going for him. I think Nolf is healthy enough that it really doesn't matter where he get seeded.
 
Tune in Wednesday. Selection Show | March 7, 2018
The 2018 NCAA Division I Wrestling Championship bracket will be announced Wednesday, March 7 at 6 p.m. ET on NCAA.com
 
How will Ohio State be seeded? Any guesses? This is the other side of the bigger equation, especially if guys on PSU and tOSU hit each other before the late rounds.
 
I think Nolf is looking at the 2 or 3 seed to be honest. I see Hidlay getting the 1, Lavallee could get the 2 since his only loss is to Hidlay.
I have a hard time seeing Lavallee getting seeded ahead of Nolf. Nolf has only 1 loss, and that by injury def when he was winning. So, both Nolf and Lavallee with one loss and then you have Nolf's destruction of Lavallee in last year's NCAA finals. Hard to give Lavallee the nod IMO.
 
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I'll give it a go:

Nato -- 2 -- n/a
Pletcher -- 4 (could be 3) -- Keener -- Unseeded
McKenna -- 4 -- N. Lee -- 9 or 8
Hayes -- 5 -- Zain -- 1
Micah -- 7 -- Nolf -- 2
Campbell -- 15 -- Joseph -- 3
Bo Jordan -- 6 -- Hall --2
Myles -- 2 -- Nickal --1
Moore -- 2 -- Rasheed-- 6 or 7
Snyder -- 1 -- Nevills -- 4 or 3

Could mean Zain/Hayes semis if Hayes gets there, Nolf/Micah quarters, Hall/Bo semis if Bo makes it, quarters or semis for Shak/Moore (quarters might be best -- short time after weigh in with a day to go), and Nevills/Snyder semis.

My expectation is that unlike Big 10s, a number of Bucks will place below seed. I think Pletcher, McKenna, and Hayes will be over seeded. Myles and Snyder just right but little to no room for upside. Nato and Moore 50/50 underperform to seed. Only the Jordans are ones who I predict possibly higher finishes from and then only a spot or two.
 
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I'll give it a go:

Nato -- 2 -- n/a
Pletcher -- 4 (could be 3) -- Keener -- Unseeded
McKenna -- 4 -- N. Lee -- 9 or 8
Hayes -- 5 -- Zain -- 1
Micah -- 7 -- Nolf -- 2
Campbell -- 15 -- Joseph -- 3
Bo Jordan -- 6 -- Hall --2
Myles -- 2 -- Nickal --1
Moore -- 2 -- Rasheed-- 6 or 7
Snyder -- 1 -- Nevills -- 4 or 3

Could mean Zain/Hayes semis if Hayes gets there, Nolf/Micah quarters, Hall/Bo semis if Bo makes it, quarters or semis for Shak/Moore (quarters might be best -- short time after weigh in with a day to go), and Nevills/Snyder semis.

My expectation is that unlike Big 10s, a number of Bucks will place below seed. I think Pletcher, McKenna, and Hayes will be over seeded. Myles and Snyder just right but little to no room for upside. Nato and Moore 50/50 underperform to seed. Only the Jordans are ones who I predict possibly higher finishes from and then only a spot or two.

Sounds reasonable. Campbell is something like 15-10; he might not get any seed. Except for Nickal vs. Martin, it's doubtful we see any finals match ups between the two teams. The quarters and semis will go a long way to determining where the standings end up. Michigan should get some pretty high seeds as well.
 
Personally, I think Pletcher is going to under-perform his seed. His style has some similarities to Heil's and he does usually find a way to win. But I doubt Pletcher places in top 4. Now, if he starts to wrestle EARLY in matches, like he does LATE when he's behind--well, maybe he will make top 4.
 
Mattin -- no seed
Micic -- 2
Profaci -- n/a
Amine -- wild card? -- no seed
Pantaleo -- 6?
Massa 8-10
Amine -- 5
Abounader -- 5
Beazley -- 9-11
Coon -- 2
 
Top 4 at 125 should be interesting:

I'd go:

Cruz
Nato
Suriano
Lee

141 and 165 are wild.

165 maybe:

IMar 14-0 (wins over Joseph, White, Lewis, Wick & Wanzek) conference champ
McFadden 31-0 (wins over Wick, Rogers, Campbell & Valencia) conference champ
Joseph 20-2 (losses to Marinelli and IMAR) (wins vs. Massa x2, Wanzek x2, Lewis, Steiert and Campbell) 2nd place in conference
Walsh 24-1 (1-1 vs. Marstellar, beat Wanzek) conference champ
Lewis 17-4 (1-2 vs. Marinelli, Wick x2, Valencia, Wanzek, Campbell & White) (losses to IMAR & Joseph) 3rd in conference
Marstellar 40-2 (1-1 vs. Walsh) conference runner-up
Rogers 19-3 (best win Wanzek, conf. title) (losses to Marinelli, Ashowrth & McFadden)
Wick 25-6 (2-1 vs. Massa, Wanzek & White) (losses to Lewis x2, IMAR, McFadden, White) 4th in conference
Massa 16-6 (2-1 vs. Marinelli, 1-2 vs. Wick, also beat Campbell, White and Valencia x2) (losses to Joseph x2 and Wanzek) no IMAR, 5th in conference
Marinelli 16-3 (1-2 vs. Massa, beat Joseph, 2-1 vs. Lewis, also beat Rogers, Wanzek x2 and Campbell x2) no IMAR, 6th in conference

Top 3 seems clear then the EWL guys and Lewis. Wick - Massa - Marinelli seems like the proper order. Rogers?
 
Tom Ryan : There is no way in Heck he should be on the seeding committee...What in the world are people thinking ? I will also say Cael Sanderson should not be on the seeding committee....We all know Tom Ryan is going to fight and argue even if his guy should be seeded lower. Now on the other hand Cael may make a comment and then leave it alone....Can't wait to see how the Ohio State wrestlers get seeded....Especially Pletcher and Martin who have several losses....Ohio State will not even be in the top 3 once all the other teams come in....Rasheed wrestled a bad match against Moore.... May even pin him next time...Moore is not that good for real...Rasheed will next make and mistakes and at least major him....Look for Keener have to have great tournament too...He wants to go out on the podium...He can beat Pletcher....
 
Tom Ryan : There is no way in Heck he should be on the seeding committee...What in the world are people thinking ? I will also say Cael Sanderson should not be on the seeding committee....We all know Tom Ryan is going to fight and argue even if his guy should be seeded lower. Now on the other hand Cael may make a comment and then leave it alone....Can't wait to see how the Ohio State wrestlers get seeded....Especially Pletcher and Martin who have several losses....Ohio State will not even be in the top 3 once all the other teams come in....Rasheed wrestled a bad match against Moore.... May even pin him next time...Moore is not that good for real...Rasheed will next make and mistakes and at least major him....Look for Keener have to have great tournament too...He wants to go out on the podium...He can beat Pletcher....

Lol
 
Tom Ryan : There is no way in Heck he should be on the seeding committee...What in the world are people thinking ? I will also say Cael Sanderson should not be on the seeding committee....We all know Tom Ryan is going to fight and argue even if his guy should be seeded lower. Now on the other hand Cael may make a comment and then leave it alone....Can't wait to see how the Ohio State wrestlers get seeded....Especially Pletcher and Martin who have several losses....Ohio State will not even be in the top 3 once all the other teams come in....Rasheed wrestled a bad match against Moore.... May even pin him next time...Moore is not that good for real...Rasheed will next make and mistakes and at least major him....Look for Keener have to have great tournament too...He wants to go out on the podium...He can beat Pletcher....

Double Lol....:confused:
 
Tom Ryan : There is no way in Heck he should be on the seeding committee...What in the world are people thinking ? I will also say Cael Sanderson should not be on the seeding committee....We all know Tom Ryan is going to fight and argue even if his guy should be seeded lower. Now on the other hand Cael may make a comment and then leave it alone....Can't wait to see how the Ohio State wrestlers get seeded....Especially Pletcher and Martin who have several losses....Ohio State will not even be in the top 3 once all the other teams come in....Rasheed wrestled a bad match against Moore.... May even pin him next time...Moore is not that good for real...Rasheed will next make and mistakes and at least major him....Look for Keener have to have great tournament too...He wants to go out on the podium...He can beat Pletcher....
Worst poster ever

220px-The_Simpsons-Jeff_Albertson.png
 
Top 4 at 125 should be interesting:

I'd go:

Cruz
Nato
Suriano
Lee

141 and 165 are wild.

165 maybe:

IMar 14-0 (wins over Joseph, White, Lewis, Wick & Wanzek) conference champ
McFadden 31-0 (wins over Wick, Rogers, Campbell & Valencia) conference champ
Joseph 20-2 (losses to Marinelli and IMAR) (wins vs. Massa x2, Wanzek x2, Lewis, Steiert and Campbell) 2nd place in conference
Walsh 24-1 (1-1 vs. Marstellar, beat Wanzek) conference champ
Lewis 17-4 (1-2 vs. Marinelli, Wick x2, Valencia, Wanzek, Campbell & White) (losses to IMAR & Joseph) 3rd in conference
Marstellar 40-2 (1-1 vs. Walsh) conference runner-up
Rogers 19-3 (best win Wanzek, conf. title) (losses to Marinelli, Ashowrth & McFadden)
Wick 25-6 (2-1 vs. Massa, Wanzek & White) (losses to Lewis x2, IMAR, McFadden, White) 4th in conference
Massa 16-6 (2-1 vs. Marinelli, 1-2 vs. Wick, also beat Campbell, White and Valencia x2) (losses to Joseph x2 and Wanzek) no IMAR, 5th in conference
Marinelli 16-3 (1-2 vs. Massa, beat Joseph, 2-1 vs. Lewis, also beat Rogers, Wanzek x2 and Campbell x2) no IMAR, 6th in conference

Top 3 seems clear then the EWL guys and Lewis. Wick - Massa - Marinelli seems like the proper order. Rogers?
Great breakdown Fink. HR thinks that Marinelli will get a top 5 seed. I don't see any way that happens.
 
I posted this elsewhere, but here's a comparison of Nevills vs Kasper for 3rd seed at NCAA's.

You can make a case either way, but this is how their records stack up:

Kasper 36-2 with a 9-2 record against people ranked in top 20 and 2-2 against top 10.
WINS: #7 Butler (x2), #11 Hughes, #15 Daniel #16 Boykin #17 Jennings #18 Sweaney #19 Ryan #20 Streck (TF)
LOSSES: #4 Nevills #8 Hall (Fall)

Nevills 25-5 with a 9-5 record against top 20 and 4-2 against top 10
WINS: #3 Kasper #5 Stoll (x2) #10 Woods #11 Hughes #12 Hemida (x2) #17 Jennings #20 Streck [He also beat Hall in All-star--doesn't count!]
LOSSES: #1 Snyder (x2) #2 Coon #7 Butler #16 Boykin

Good wins would go to Nevills (7 wins over guys ranked in top 12 vs 3 for Kasper)
Bad losses favors Kasper with Nevills' loss to Boykin whom Kasper beat (Kasper also twice beat Butler who beat Nevills)
HTH: Nevills beat Kasper 3-1 I think this should be the tie break

If Kasper gets the 3rd seed it would show the advantage of wrestling in a weaker conference. Three of Nevills' 5 losses are against Snyder and Coon--doesn't get any tougher than that!! Nevills clearer had the much tougher schedule. We'll see what the seeding committee decides.

If Intermat rankings would be NCAA seeds, I think Nevills would be better with the #4 seed. He would get #5 Stoll in the quarters. Dhesi is ranked 6th, and I think he could be more dangerous to Nevills.
 
Really interested where Hall gets seeded. I know it don't matter much whether 1 or 2. But I'm interested to see if they going to punish him for all-star match (I believe it shouldn't if they want top guys to compete there).

SOS pretty much same as Zahid..0 losses, conference champ..I know everyone says last year don't matter, but it's crazy to me if they give more weight to an exhibition pre-season match compared to National Championship
 
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