I'd be surprised to see a full reload because even the most stripped down lineup would be a top-3 contender. I'd think. Hmm.
Actually, now that I'm looking at Dice's spreadsheet in search of the least sure lineup we could possibly put out (starters in bold)...
We could easily be blanked at 125-141, given that we don't know what Teske brings, and RBY and Nick Lee redshirt, in favor of, say, Lindemuth and Giannangelli.
149 and 157 are Verk and Berge, neither have redshirts available. Both with great wins but not locks for podium.
165 is Cenzo, no shirt available, and he's a legit finalist threat.
174, Hall could shirt, leaving Manville?
184, if not Rasheed (either b/c injury or rejected 6th year), it could be Hoopes if not Starocci or Brooks.
197 is either Conel or Beard.
285 is either Cassar or Seth Nevills.
That's a lineup that probably isn't winning NCAAs but would be interesting and would probably finish higher than the 2015 team. And this would hinge on the idea that we'd shirt RBY, Nick Lee, Hall and Rasheed and Cassar don't return. Five starters, all AAs, two of them NCs. But those moving parts don't necessarily move in concert, so I could only imagine a full reboot if, say, 4 of those 5 events need to occur.
Looking at other programs:
Oklahoma State brings back Picc, Fix, Brock, Gfeller, Sheets, Smith, and Geer. They have Wittlake coming off of RS. Most of those guys already RS.
Iowa brings back Lee, DeSanto, Murin, Lugo, Kemerer, Marinelli, Young, Wilcke, and Warner.
OSU brings back Heinselman, Pletcher, Hayes, Romero, Smith, Moore and Singletary. Hoffman, R. Jordan, Sasso, Kinner all coming off RS.
If we get back both Shak and Cassar, I think Cael goes all in. However if we get one or the other, with or without Conel, I'm not sure PSU is the favorite next year and might be well served to redshirt as many guys as possible. RBY will have a year to develop physically while guys like Micic, Pletcher, and Suriano exhaust their eligibility. Lee and Hall put a gap year between themselves and Yianni/Zahid. Gives guys like Verkleeren, Manville and possibly Joe Lee an opportunity to work into the lineup.