We’ve had a discussion about Oregon/Washington/other Pac-12 schools joining the ACC on our board. Here’s my thoughts:
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In my opinion, it will come down to three things:
1) What is ESPN willing to do/pay to keep Oregon and Washington away from FOX? Is it worth paying more to keep them than it would be if they stayed in the Pac-12 or moved to the Big 12?
2) What will their obligations be re: the media contract for adding two (or more) schools to the ACC? Will they be required to re-negotiate the contract? Likewise, will it open up the Grant of Rights, potentially being forced to pay more for existing brands (if they leave for the SEC) or lose them altogether (by joining the Big Ten)?
3) Will moving Oregon, Washington, and anyone else from the Pac-12 into the ACC generate ESPN more (or more enough) revenue via the ACC Network? I’m assuming the channel has automatic carriage pickups if the conference expands into California, Oregon, Washington, etc.
I’d be particularly interested in no. 3 because I think that’s the key for the ACC’s long-term viability. ESPN has invested hundreds of millions into the conference with the ACCN. They likely recognize that if the ACC blows up, it will impact ESPN in two ways:
1. Lose several key brands to the Big Ten/FOX
2. They’d be left with a cable channel that immediately becomes a money-guzzling operations with no hope for future viability.
If there’s truly going to be a “Power 2” and everybody else, wouldn’t it make sense for ESPN to push the most valuable remaining programs from the Big 12/Pac-12 to the ACC where they have several existing prominent brands and an established linear network? I suppose it’d be pretty easy to “pull the plug” in the event the conference blows up, but I think they’d much rather have the ACC survive in its current state than any other conference not named the SEC.