Penn State and 2016 Opponents analysis, you tell us our 2016 record

[PSUfan98]

Below is Penn St and each team on our record, their current ranking, W/L in 2015, and what they lose according to their depth chart at http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/ as well as a listing of those players (including Juniors) expected to be in the NFL Draft (CBS Sports mock at http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings).

You have the data, now you provide the informed analysis. Tell us our 2016 record given this information and potentially what you know about what teams have waiting in the wings. It will be our version of Steele's magazine a bit early.


DRAFT Rank/Name/Position/Position Rank/Measurables/Draft Round

Penn St unranked currently, 7-5, losing 5 Senior starters (already lost Lucas) and potentially 2 2nd Rd Jrs
44 Austin Johnson DT 7 Penn State rJr 6-3 325 2
50 Christian Hackenberg QB 4 Penn State Jr 6-4 236 2
55 Carl Nassib DE 8 Penn State rSr 6-6 270 2
105 Anthony Zettel DE 11 Penn State rSr 6-4 278 3-4
201 Kyle Carter TE 10 Penn State rSr 6-3 242 5-6
229 Jordan Lucas

SS 9 Penn State Sr 6-0 202 6-7
389 Trevor Williams CB 40 Penn State Sr 6-0 196 ––
624 Tarow Barney DT 45 Penn State Sr 6-1 310 ––
642 Angelo Mangiro C 23 Penn State rSr 6-3 315 ––
991 Ben Kline OLB 78 Penn State rSr 6-2 238


Kent State, unranked, 3-9, losing 5 senior starters according to depth chart
279 Trayion Durham FB 5 Kent State rSr 6-1 248 7-FA
789 Nate Terhune DT 57 Kent State rSr 6-4 270 ––
958 Anthony Melchiori P 16 Kent State Sr 5-11 190 ––

Pitt, unranked, 8-4, losing 7 Sr starters and likely Boyd in the 2nd Rd
47 Tyler Boyd WR 6 Pittsburgh Jr 6-2 200 2
354 J.P. Holtz TE 19 Pittsburgh Sr 6-3 250 ––
413 Darryl Render DT 32 Pittsburgh Sr 6-2 300 ––
505 Lafayette Pitts CB 49 Pittsburgh rSr 5-10 195 ––
845 Nicholas Grigsby OLB 69 Pittsburgh rSr 6-0 220 ––
866 Artie Rowell C 30 Pittsburgh rSr 6-1 310 ––
888 Ejuan Price OLB 71 Pittsburgh rSr 5-11 250

Temple, #22, 10-2, losing 10 Sr starters according to depth chart
68 Tyler Matakevich OLB 9 Temple Sr 6-0 232 2-3
243 Matt Ioannidis DT 21 Temple Sr 6-3 292 7
349 Kyle Friend C 11 Temple Sr 6-1 305 7-FA
635 Hershey Walton DT 46 Temple rSr 6-3 314 ––
947 Tavon Young CB 92 Temple Sr 5-9 180 ––


Michigan, #15, 9-3, losing 15 Sr starters including P and K and likely losing Butt in the 2nd Rd
49 Jake Butt TE 1 Michigan Jr 6-5 248 2
265 James Ross OLB 23 Michigan Sr 6-1 232 7-FA
324 Joe Kerridge FB 8 Michigan rSr 5-11 249 7-FA
381 Jake Rudock QB 23 Michigan rSr 6-2 208 ––
391 Graham Glasgow C 13 Michigan rSr 6-5 303 ––
415 Desmond Morgan OLB 34 Michigan Sr 6-1 236 ––
419 Joe Bolden ILB 21 Michigan Sr 6-3 232 ––
493 Wayne Lyons CB 48 Michigan rSr 6-0 193 ––
523 Jarrod Wilson FS 22 Michigan Sr 6-1 210 ––
751 Royce Jenkins-Stone OLB 60 Michigan Sr 6-2 240 ––

Minnesota, unranked, 5-7, losing 11 Sr starters including P
96 Briean Boddy-Calhoun CB 11 Minnesota rSr 5-10 189 3
146 Eric Murray CB 18 Minnesota Sr 5-11 196 4-5
175 De'Vondre Campbell OLB 16 Minnesota rSr 6-4 241 5
226 Theiren Cockran DE 20 Minnesota rSr 6-5 257 6-7
370 Peter Mortell P 7 Minnesota rSr 6-1 192 ––
392 Rodrick Williams Jr. RB 31 Minnesota Sr 5-10 229 ––
628 Josh Campion OG 37 Minnesota rSr 6-4 310 ––
830 Antonio Johnson SS 37 Minnesota Sr 5-11 212 ––
872 Miles Thomas FB 26 Minnesota Sr 5-10 250 ––
957 Brian Bobek C 34 Minnesota rSr 6-1 298 ––

Maryland, unranked, 3-9, losing 7 Sr. starters and maybe two Jrs (Rds 3/4,5/6)
127 William Likely CB 15 Maryland Jr 5-7 176 3-4
197 Yannick Ngakoue OLB 17 Maryland Jr 6-2 250 5-6
228 Brad Craddock K 2 Maryland Sr 6-0 192 6-7
244 Sean Davis CB 28 Maryland Sr 6-1 200 7
506 Anthony Nixon FS 21 Maryland Sr 6-0 205 ––
576 Brandon Ross RB 44 Maryland rSr 5-10 205 ––
853 A.J. Hendy SS 38 Maryland rSr 6-1 207 ––

BYE

Ohio St, #6, 11-1, losing 9 Sr. starters including K and maybe as many as 6 Jrs
1 Joey Bosa DE 1 Ohio State Jr 6-5 275 1
13 Taylor Decker OT 3 Ohio State Sr 6-7 315 1
16 Ezekiel Elliott RB 1 Ohio State Jr 6-0 225 1
24 Michael Thomas WR 2 Ohio State rJr 6-3 210 1
26 Adolphus Washington DT 5 Ohio State Sr 6-4 290 1-2
46 Vonn Bell SS 2 Ohio State Jr 5-11 205 2
51 Joshua Perry OLB 7 Ohio State Sr 6-4 254 2
78 Pat Elflein OG 5 Ohio State rJr 6-3 300 2-3
81 Cardale Jones QB 6 Ohio State rJr 6-5 250 2-3
95 Braxton Miller WR 12 Ohio State rSr 6-1 215 3
114 Nick Vannett TE 6 Ohio State rSr 6-6 260 3-4
364 Corey Smith

WR 44 Ohio State rSr 6-0 195 ––
383 Chase Farris OT 29 Ohio State rSr 6-5 310 ––
479 Jacoby Boren C 16 Ohio State Sr 6-1 285 ––
671 Tommy Schutt DT 49 Ohio State Sr 6-2 290 ––

Purdue, unranked, 2-10, losing 8 Sr starters including K
211 Frankie Williams CB 25 Purdue rSr 5-9 190 6
452 Robert Kugler C 15 Purdue rSr 6-3 295 ––
604 Ryan Watson DT 43 Purdue Sr 6-2 298 ––
615 Anthony Brown CB 61 Purdue Sr 5-11 190 ––
834 Danny Anthrop WR 115 Purdue Sr 5-11 191 ––
844 Paul Griggs K 12 Purdue Sr 6-1 196 ––

Iowa, #4, 12-0, losing 12 Sr starters including P and K and potentially losing King in Rd 3/4
125 *Desmond King CB 14 Iowa Jr 5-11 200 3-4
159 Jordan Lomax FS 5 Iowa rSr 5-10 205 4-5
194 Jordan Walsh OG 11 Iowa rSr 6-3 290 5-6
284 Austin Blythe C 8 Iowa rSr 6-2 290 7-FA
304 Cole Fisher OLB 25 Iowa rSr 6-2 236 7-FA
366 Jordan Canzeri RB 28 Iowa rSr 5-9 192 ––
374 Henry Krieger Coble TE 21 Iowa rSr 6-4 250 ––
418 Nate Meier DE 34 Iowa Sr 6-2 252 ––
444 Tevaun Smith WR 54 Iowa Sr 6-1 205

Indiana, unranked, 6-6, losing 8 Sr starters including K
36 Jason Spriggs OT 6 Indiana Sr 6-6 305 1-2
153 Nate Sudfeld QB 10 Indiana Sr 6-6 240 4-5
514 Michael Cooper TE 28 Indiana rSr 6-4 257 ––
796 Zack Shaw OLB 64 Indiana rSr 6-3 252 ––
915 Nick Mangieri DE 69 Indiana Sr 6-5 270

Rutgers, unranked, 4-8, losing 9 Sr starters including P and K
84 Leonte Carroo WR 10 Rutgers Sr 6-0 205 2-3
206 Paul James RB 18 Rutgers rSr 6-0 205 6
496 Keith Lumpkin OT 39 Rutgers rSr 6-7 310 ––
700 Quentin Gause OLB 55 Rutgers rSr 6-1 226 ––
793 Sam Bergen FB 23 Rutgers rSr 6-0 235 ––
930 Kaiwan Lewis ILB 44 Rutgers Sr 6-0 228 ––

Michigan St, #5, 11-1, losing 11 Sr starters and likely LT Conklin in Rd 1
20 Connor Cook

QB 3 Michigan State rSr 6-4 220 1
22 Jack Conklin OT 4 Michigan State rJr 6-6 318 1
42 Shilique Calhoun DE 7 Michigan State rSr 6-5 252 2
152 Aaron Burbridge WR 22 Michigan State Sr 6-1 208 4-5
166 Jack Allen C 5 Michigan State rSr 6-2 298 5
190 Joel Heath DT 17 Michigan State rSr 6-5 296 5-6
250 Arjen Colquhoun CB 29 Michigan State rSr 6-1 197 7
297 RJ Williamson

SS 13 Michigan State rSr 6-0 215 7-FA
329 DeAnthony Arnett WR 41 Michigan State rSr 5-11 182 7-FA
477 Darien Harris OLB 39 Michigan State rSr 6-0 220 ––
552 Taybor Pepper LS 4 Michigan State Sr 6-5 230 ––
569 Trevon Pendleton FB 15 Michigan State rSr 5-11 250 ––
573 Lawrence Thomas DT 40 Michigan State rSr 6-3 300 ––
746 Donavon Clark OG 44 Michigan State rSr 6-3 317
862 Macgarrett Kings Jr. WR 120 Michigan State Sr 5-10 186 ––

 

[StinkStankStunk]

Below is Penn St and each team on our record, their current ranking, W/L in 2015, and what they lose according to their depth chart at http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/ as well as a listing of those players (including Juniors) expected to be in the NFL Draft (CBS Sports mock at http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings).

You have the data, now you provide the informed analysis. Tell us our 2016 record given this information and potentially what you know about what teams have waiting in the wings. It will be our version of Steele's magazine a bit early.


DRAFT Rank/Name/Position/Position Rank/Measurables/Draft Round

Penn St unranked currently, 7-5, losing 5 Senior starters (already lost Lucas) and potentially 2 2nd Rd Jrs
44 Austin Johnson DT 7 Penn State rJr 6-3 325 2
50 Christian Hackenberg QB 4 Penn State Jr 6-4 236 2
55 Carl Nassib DE 8 Penn State rSr 6-6 270 2
105 Anthony Zettel DE 11 Penn State rSr 6-4 278 3-4
201 Kyle Carter TE 10 Penn State rSr 6-3 242 5-6
229 Jordan Lucas

SS 9 Penn State Sr 6-0 202 6-7
389 Trevor Williams CB 40 Penn State Sr 6-0 196 ––
624 Tarow Barney DT 45 Penn State Sr 6-1 310 ––
642 Angelo Mangiro C 23 Penn State rSr 6-3 315 ––
991 Ben Kline OLB 78 Penn State rSr 6-2 238


Kent State, unranked, 3-9, losing 5 senior starters according to depth chart
279 Trayion Durham FB 5 Kent State rSr 6-1 248 7-FA
789 Nate Terhune DT 57 Kent State rSr 6-4 270 ––
958 Anthony Melchiori P 16 Kent State Sr 5-11 190 ––

Pitt, unranked, 8-4, losing 7 Sr starters and likely Boyd in the 2nd Rd
47 Tyler Boyd WR 6 Pittsburgh Jr 6-2 200 2
354 J.P. Holtz TE 19 Pittsburgh Sr 6-3 250 ––
413 Darryl Render DT 32 Pittsburgh Sr 6-2 300 ––
505 Lafayette Pitts CB 49 Pittsburgh rSr 5-10 195 ––
845 Nicholas Grigsby OLB 69 Pittsburgh rSr 6-0 220 ––
866 Artie Rowell C 30 Pittsburgh rSr 6-1 310 ––
888 Ejuan Price OLB 71 Pittsburgh rSr 5-11 250

Temple, #22, 10-2, losing 10 Sr starters according to depth chart
68 Tyler Matakevich OLB 9 Temple Sr 6-0 232 2-3
243 Matt Ioannidis DT 21 Temple Sr 6-3 292 7
349 Kyle Friend C 11 Temple Sr 6-1 305 7-FA
635 Hershey Walton DT 46 Temple rSr 6-3 314 ––
947 Tavon Young CB 92 Temple Sr 5-9 180 ––


Michigan, #15, 9-3, losing 15 Sr starters including P and K and likely losing Butt in the 2nd Rd
49 Jake Butt TE 1 Michigan Jr 6-5 248 2
265 James Ross OLB 23 Michigan Sr 6-1 232 7-FA
324 Joe Kerridge FB 8 Michigan rSr 5-11 249 7-FA
381 Jake Rudock QB 23 Michigan rSr 6-2 208 ––
391 Graham Glasgow C 13 Michigan rSr 6-5 303 ––
415 Desmond Morgan OLB 34 Michigan Sr 6-1 236 ––
419 Joe Bolden ILB 21 Michigan Sr 6-3 232 ––
493 Wayne Lyons CB 48 Michigan rSr 6-0 193 ––
523 Jarrod Wilson FS 22 Michigan Sr 6-1 210 ––
751 Royce Jenkins-Stone OLB 60 Michigan Sr 6-2 240 ––

Minnesota, unranked, 5-7, losing 11 Sr starters including P
96 Briean Boddy-Calhoun CB 11 Minnesota rSr 5-10 189 3
146 Eric Murray CB 18 Minnesota Sr 5-11 196 4-5
175 De'Vondre Campbell OLB 16 Minnesota rSr 6-4 241 5
226 Theiren Cockran DE 20 Minnesota rSr 6-5 257 6-7
370 Peter Mortell P 7 Minnesota rSr 6-1 192 ––
392 Rodrick Williams Jr. RB 31 Minnesota Sr 5-10 229 ––
628 Josh Campion OG 37 Minnesota rSr 6-4 310 ––
830 Antonio Johnson SS 37 Minnesota Sr 5-11 212 ––
872 Miles Thomas FB 26 Minnesota Sr 5-10 250 ––
957 Brian Bobek C 34 Minnesota rSr 6-1 298 ––

Maryland, unranked, 3-9, losing 7 Sr. starters and maybe two Jrs (Rds 3/4,5/6)
127 William Likely CB 15 Maryland Jr 5-7 176 3-4
197 Yannick Ngakoue OLB 17 Maryland Jr 6-2 250 5-6
228 Brad Craddock K 2 Maryland Sr 6-0 192 6-7
244 Sean Davis CB 28 Maryland Sr 6-1 200 7
506 Anthony Nixon FS 21 Maryland Sr 6-0 205 ––
576 Brandon Ross RB 44 Maryland rSr 5-10 205 ––
853 A.J. Hendy SS 38 Maryland rSr 6-1 207 ––

BYE

Ohio St, #6, 11-1, losing 9 Sr. starters including K and maybe as many as 6 Jrs
1 Joey Bosa DE 1 Ohio State Jr 6-5 275 1
13 Taylor Decker OT 3 Ohio State Sr 6-7 315 1
16 Ezekiel Elliott RB 1 Ohio State Jr 6-0 225 1
24 Michael Thomas WR 2 Ohio State rJr 6-3 210 1
26 Adolphus Washington DT 5 Ohio State Sr 6-4 290 1-2
46 Vonn Bell SS 2 Ohio State Jr 5-11 205 2
51 Joshua Perry OLB 7 Ohio State Sr 6-4 254 2
78 Pat Elflein OG 5 Ohio State rJr 6-3 300 2-3
81 Cardale Jones QB 6 Ohio State rJr 6-5 250 2-3
95 Braxton Miller WR 12 Ohio State rSr 6-1 215 3
114 Nick Vannett TE 6 Ohio State rSr 6-6 260 3-4
364 Corey Smith

WR 44 Ohio State rSr 6-0 195 ––
383 Chase Farris OT 29 Ohio State rSr 6-5 310 ––
479 Jacoby Boren C 16 Ohio State Sr 6-1 285 ––
671 Tommy Schutt DT 49 Ohio State Sr 6-2 290 ––

Purdue, unranked, 2-10, losing 8 Sr starters including K
211 Frankie Williams CB 25 Purdue rSr 5-9 190 6
452 Robert Kugler C 15 Purdue rSr 6-3 295 ––
604 Ryan Watson DT 43 Purdue Sr 6-2 298 ––
615 Anthony Brown CB 61 Purdue Sr 5-11 190 ––
834 Danny Anthrop WR 115 Purdue Sr 5-11 191 ––
844 Paul Griggs K 12 Purdue Sr 6-1 196 ––

Iowa, #4, 12-0, losing 12 Sr starters including P and K and potentially losing King in Rd 3/4
125 *Desmond King CB 14 Iowa Jr 5-11 200 3-4
159 Jordan Lomax FS 5 Iowa rSr 5-10 205 4-5
194 Jordan Walsh OG 11 Iowa rSr 6-3 290 5-6
284 Austin Blythe C 8 Iowa rSr 6-2 290 7-FA
304 Cole Fisher OLB 25 Iowa rSr 6-2 236 7-FA
366 Jordan Canzeri RB 28 Iowa rSr 5-9 192 ––
374 Henry Krieger Coble TE 21 Iowa rSr 6-4 250 ––
418 Nate Meier DE 34 Iowa Sr 6-2 252 ––
444 Tevaun Smith WR 54 Iowa Sr 6-1 205

Indiana, unranked, 6-6, losing 8 Sr starters including K
36 Jason Spriggs OT 6 Indiana Sr 6-6 305 1-2
153 Nate Sudfeld QB 10 Indiana Sr 6-6 240 4-5
514 Michael Cooper TE 28 Indiana rSr 6-4 257 ––
796 Zack Shaw OLB 64 Indiana rSr 6-3 252 ––
915 Nick Mangieri DE 69 Indiana Sr 6-5 270

Rutgers, unranked, 4-8, losing 9 Sr starters including P and K
84 Leonte Carroo WR 10 Rutgers Sr 6-0 205 2-3
206 Paul James RB 18 Rutgers rSr 6-0 205 6
496 Keith Lumpkin OT 39 Rutgers rSr 6-7 310 ––
700 Quentin Gause OLB 55 Rutgers rSr 6-1 226 ––
793 Sam Bergen FB 23 Rutgers rSr 6-0 235 ––
930 Kaiwan Lewis ILB 44 Rutgers Sr 6-0 228 ––

Michigan St, #5, 11-1, losing 11 Sr starters and likely LT Conklin in Rd 1
20 Connor Cook

QB 3 Michigan State rSr 6-4 220 1
22 Jack Conklin OT 4 Michigan State rJr 6-6 318 1
42 Shilique Calhoun DE 7 Michigan State rSr 6-5 252 2
152 Aaron Burbridge WR 22 Michigan State Sr 6-1 208 4-5
166 Jack Allen C 5 Michigan State rSr 6-2 298 5
190 Joel Heath DT 17 Michigan State rSr 6-5 296 5-6
250 Arjen Colquhoun CB 29 Michigan State rSr 6-1 197 7
297 RJ Williamson

SS 13 Michigan State rSr 6-0 215 7-FA
329 DeAnthony Arnett WR 41 Michigan State rSr 5-11 182 7-FA
477 Darien Harris OLB 39 Michigan State rSr 6-0 220 ––
552 Taybor Pepper LS 4 Michigan State Sr 6-5 230 ––
569 Trevon Pendleton FB 15 Michigan State rSr 5-11 250 ––
573 Lawrence Thomas DT 40 Michigan State rSr 6-3 300 ––
746 Donavon Clark OG 44 Michigan State rSr 6-3 317
862 Macgarrett Kings Jr. WR 120 Michigan State Sr 5-10 186 ––

Haven't looked over all of this information......but I know that what you list for Michigan (15 senior starters) is WAAAAAY off......unless a whole bunch of guys don't come back for their 5th year.

The majority of the "senior" starters are guys who red-shirted under Hoke and have a 5th year available. You have to be a bit careful about how each team lists their "class". (FWIW, Against OSU, Michigan Started EIGHT guys in their last year of eligibility, and another EIGHT who have a 5th year available....and at least one TRUE JUNIOR who could leave early. So they could certainly end up losing 10-12 starters, but as of right now, the number is only 8)

I am not close enough to their program to make a VERY educated guess, but I would bet most of them come back


There may be similar discrepancies with some of those other teams as well.

Might want to delete this post and re-boot after checking the data.....if you want to generate informed discussion.

 

[ellobo]

Haven't looked over all of this information......but I know that what you list for Michigan (15 senior starters) is WAAAAAY off......unless a whole bunch of guys don't come back for their 5th year.

The majority of the "senior" starters are guys who red-shirted under Hoke and have a 5th year available. You have to be a bit careful about how each team lists their "class".

I am not close enough to their program to make a VERY educated guess, but I would bet most of them come back


There may be similar discrepancies with some of those other teams as well.

Might want to delete this post and re-boot after checking the data.....if you want to generate informed discussion.

To add to this:

The OP says 15 but only lists 10 players. We lose the P but not the PK so if you add him that still is only 11:

1) Jake Butt is a JR...while he could go to the NFL he is not a senior so the # is back down to 10

2) You have 4 starting LBs listed and not once did Michigan run a 3-4 the entire season. To start the season Michigan ran a 3-3-5 with a safety coming into the box to give us a 3-4 look. By seasons end (and against you) we were running a 4-2-5 with a safety in the box to give us a 4-3 look. While it is fair to say Michigan graduates a lot of the guys who played the actual number is either 2 or 3 lost starters depending on which point of the season you are talking. So that brings the # down to 8 or 9 lost senior starters

3) Wayne Lyons was in no way shape or form a starter...besides special teams he hardly even played (pretty much only in "garbage time"). He was 3rd string. That brings the number down to 7 or 8 lost seniors starters...6 or 7 minus the punter...so roughly half of 15

 

[Nitwit]

I think we go 8-4, or 9-3 if we beat Pitt.

 

[Go M&B]

Haven't looked over all of this information......but I know that what you list for Michigan (15 senior starters) is WAAAAAY off......unless a whole bunch of guys don't come back for their 5th year.

The majority of the "senior" starters are guys who red-shirted under Hoke and have a 5th year available. You have to be a bit careful about how each team lists their "class". (FWIW, Against OSU, Michigan Started EIGHT guys in their last year of eligibility, and another EIGHT who have a 5th year available....and at least one TRUE JUNIOR who could leave early. So they could certainly end up losing 10-12 starters, but as of right now, the number is only 8)

I am not close enough to their program to make a VERY educated guess, but I would bet most of them come back


There may be similar discrepancies with some of those other teams as well.

Might want to delete this post and re-boot after checking the data.....if you want to generate informed discussion.

This is correct, although I don't think we lose 8 starters. I think it's 3 on each side of the ball. Plus two starting DL return from injury. If O'Korn is as good as what we've been told we may be loaded next year.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Tell me if Hack is back and who is the new OC before I attempt to make any predictions.

 

[StinkStankStunk]

This is correct, although I don't think we lose 8 starters. I think it's 3 on each side of the ball. Plus two starting DL return from injury. If O'Korn is as good as what we've been told we may be loaded next year.

Michigan's game notes lists the following as starters for the season finale:

Jenkins-Stone
Morgan
Bolden
Ross
Wilson
Kerridge
Rudock
an
Glasgow

Obviously, folks rotate in and out with various packages.....but that is from the Game Notes put out by UMich SID

They also list they following "senior" starters with a 5th year available:

Darboh
Kalis
Braden
Magnuson
Chesson
Henry
Wormley
and
Allen

How many of those will be back? I assume most of them will, but who knows.

In addition, Butt and Lewis would be two juniors who might entertain "early entry"

When its all said and done....a number of around 12 leaving is probably in the ballpark.


Bottom line....looking at "who looses what" for next year - at this point - is a guessing game, FOR EVERY PROGRAM...and is better addressed after the deadline for NFL draft declaration has come and gone.

 

[PSUfan98]

Haven't looked over all of this information......but I know that what you list for Michigan (15 senior starters) is WAAAAAY off......unless a whole bunch of guys don't come back for their 5th year.

The majority of the "senior" starters are guys who red-shirted under Hoke and have a 5th year available. You have to be a bit careful about how each team lists their "class". (FWIW, Against OSU, Michigan Started EIGHT guys in their last year of eligibility, and another EIGHT who have a 5th year available....and at least one TRUE JUNIOR who could leave early. So they could certainly end up losing 10-12 starters, but as of right now, the number is only 8)

I am not close enough to their program to make a VERY educated guess, but I would bet most of them come back


There may be similar discrepancies with some of those other teams as well.

Might want to delete this post and re-boot after checking the data.....if you want to generate informed discussion.

Good discussion, however, I did cite exactly where the data came from. I don't know Michigan's roster but did use a website that was listed in the OP. Similarly, with the other Mich poster chiming in, I list only players listed on the mock NFL draft from the website that I cited. I don't know the draft better than those guys or the depth chart better than the sites I linked.

So by all means please add to the discussion but the information can only be as good as the sources used. If you have other sources, please share. In general, it doesn't significantly change the analysis. But I can't verify the accuracy of those source materials for each team beyond providing a link.

 

[StinkStankStunk]

This is correct, although I don't think we lose 8 starters. I think it's 3 on each side of the ball. Plus two starting DL return from injury. If O'Korn is as good as what we've been told we may be loaded next year.

Michigan's game notes lists the following as starters for the season finale:

Jenkins-Stone
Morgan
Bolden
Ross
Wilson
Kerridge
Rudock
an
Glasgow

Obviously, folks rotate in and out with various packages.....but that is from the Game Notes put out by UMich SID

They also list they following "senior" starters with a 5th year available:

Darboh
Kalis
Braden
Magnuson
Chesson
Henry
Wormley
and
Allen

How many of those will be back? I assume most of them will, but who knows.

In addition, Butt and Lewis would be two juniors who might entertain "early entry"

When its all said and done....a number of around 12 leaving is probably in the ballpark.


Bottom line....looking at "who looses what" for next year - at this point - is a guessing game, FOR EVERY PROGRAM...and is better addressed after the deadline for NFL draft declaration has come and gone.

 

[ellobo]

This is correct, although I don't think we lose 8 starters. I think it's 3 on each side of the ball. Plus two starting DL return from injury. If O'Korn is as good as what we've been told we may be loaded next year.

The question of how many we lose depends on what version of our D you go with. If it is the one we started the season with than it is 7. If it is the one we ended the season with (because of injuries) than it is 6. If Durkin returns I would say 7 is the general number to use because he only changed up the D because what he wants to run is what he ran before Mario O and Glasgow got hurt. However, if PSU fans want to compare what they played against the number is 6...well actually 5 because Glasgow was out (fyi for PSU fans, we lose a Glasgow but that is his older bro who plays OL).

FWIW...OP you getting the numbers wrong probably is probably a product of people looking at our listed depth chart from the pre-season. It lists 4 LBs (we never played more than 3 at a time...they changed Peppers role from a true SS to more of a rover and put in another safety and then eventually moved to 4 down lineman reducing it to 2 LBs) and Lyons went into the pre-season as the projected starter and then not only got passed by a number of guys but also was moved from CB to safety where he again got passed by a number of guys.

 

[Alphabets]

Being objective as I possibly can.....12-0. The only loss I can see is the unknown opponent in the NC game.

 

[StinkStankStunk]

Good discussion, however, I did cite exactly where the data came from. I don't know Michigan's roster but did use a website that was listed in the OP. Similarly, with the other Mich poster chiming in, I list only players listed on the mock NFL draft from the website that I cited. I don't know the draft better than those guys or the depth chart better than the sites I linked.

So by all means please add to the discussion but the information can only be as good as the sources used. If you have other sources, please share. In general, it doesn't significantly change the analysis. But I can't verify the accuracy of those source materials for each team beyond providing a link.

98...thanks for your efforts. It can be a bear trying to pull all this stuff together.

One suggestion....each major program puts out "game notes" through their SID each week.
I think those are probably the best sources of info - since they are direct from the SID and are updated each week (I tend to refer to them quite often).

Every other source is always loaded with errors and inconsistencies (just look at the "depth charts" at the various RIVALS sites for a for instance)
And, as I mentioned above...who ACTUALLY leaves is never very conclusive until AT LEAST the deadline for NFL early entry declarations. Just a FWIW.

 

[PSUfan98]

Michigan's game notes lists the following as starters for the season finale:

Jenkins-Stone
Morgan
Bolden
Ross
Wilson
Kerridge
Rudock
an
Glasgow

Obviously, folks rotate in and out with various packages.....but that is from the Game Notes put out by UMich SID

They also list they following "senior" starters with a 5th year available:

Darboh
Kalis
Braden
Magnuson
Chesson
Henry
Wormley
and
Allen

How many of those will be back? I assume most of them will, but who knows.

In addition, Butt and Lewis would be two juniors who might entertain "early entry"

When its all said and done....a number of around 12 leaving is probably in the ballpark.


Bottom line....looking at "who looses what" for next year - at this point - is a guessing game, FOR EVERY PROGRAM...and is better addressed after the deadline for NFL draft declaration has come and gone.

Accordingly, only 3 of the 5 PSU SR starters listed played the last 2 games (Nassib would make 4 but he only played the 1st series of each game before the injury forced him back out). But they were available earlier in the season like your NT who helped win some games.

 

[kgilbert78]

Six we should win. Two we don't. The rest are tossups.

 

[Go M&B]

Michigan's game notes lists the following as starters for the season finale:

Jenkins-Stone
Morgan
Bolden
Ross
Wilson
Kerridge
Rudock
an
Glasgow

Obviously, folks rotate in and out with various packages.....but that is from the Game Notes put out by UMich SID

They also list they following "senior" starters with a 5th year available:

Darboh
Kalis
Braden
Magnuson
Chesson
Henry
Wormley
and
Allen

How many of those will be back? I assume most of them will, but who knows.

In addition, Butt and Lewis would be two juniors who might entertain "early entry"

When its all said and done....a number of around 12 leaving is probably in the ballpark.


Bottom line....looking at "who looses what" for next year - at this point - is a guessing game, FOR EVERY PROGRAM...and is better addressed after the deadline for NFL draft declaration has come and gone.

That lists 4 LBS. we rarely, if ever, showed a 3-4. I understand where you got the list but it's simply not an accurate reflection of our D. It really depends on the defensive look. Regardless, the final number will be nowhere close to 12

 

[ellobo]

Michigan's game notes lists the following as starters for the season finale:

Jenkins-Stone
Morgan
Bolden
Ross
Wilson
Kerridge
Rudock
an
Glasgow

Obviously, folks rotate in and out with various packages.....but that is from the Game Notes put out by UMich SID

They also list they following "senior" starters with a 5th year available:

Darboh
Kalis
Braden
Magnuson
Chesson
Henry
Wormley
and
Allen

How many of those will be back? I assume most of them will, but who knows.

In addition, Butt and Lewis would be two juniors who might entertain "early entry"

When its all said and done....a number of around 12 leaving is probably in the ballpark.


Bottom line....looking at "who looses what" for next year - at this point - is a guessing game, FOR EVERY PROGRAM...and is better addressed after the deadline for NFL draft declaration has come and gone.

Michigan's game notes lists the following as starters for the season finale:

Jenkins-Stone
Morgan
Bolden
Ross
Wilson
Kerridge
Rudock
an
Glasgow

Obviously, folks rotate in and out with various packages.....but that is from the Game Notes put out by UMich SID

They also list they following "senior" starters with a 5th year available:

Darboh
Kalis
Braden
Magnuson
Chesson
Henry
Wormley
and
Allen

How many of those will be back? I assume most of them will, but who knows.

In addition, Butt and Lewis would be two juniors who might entertain "early entry"

When its all said and done....a number of around 12 leaving is probably in the ballpark.


Bottom line....looking at "who looses what" for next year - at this point - is a guessing game, FOR EVERY PROGRAM...and is better addressed after the deadline for NFL draft declaration has come and gone.

Not sure why any of the RS Junior starters would leave unless someone convinces them they are NFL ready (which none really are) or they have some beef with the coaches which we don't yet know about. I doubt they are told to not come back unless there is something going on off the field we don't know about.

As far as Butt and Lewis...Butt concerns me...I'm hoping the chance to be a captain, have a special year and get his degree brings him back. With Lewis he has already gone on record saying he is coming back...and this why I believe him: His stature (mostly height but he also can add a little more strength) is going to hurt him in the draft and I think he knows that. He had a very good year but not so good that the NFL is not going to question his height. I think he thinks he can take it up even one more level (including as a returner) making his stature less of an issue and putting him higher in the draft.

 

[Go M&B]

The question of how many we lose depends on what version of our D you go with. If it is the one we started the season with than it is 7. If it is the one we ended the season with (because of injuries) than it is 6. If Durkin returns I would say 7 is the general number to use because he only changed up the D because what he wants to run is what he ran before Mario O and Glasgow got hurt. However, if PSU fans want to compare what they played against the number is 6...well actually 5 because Glasgow was out (fyi for PSU fans, we lose a Glasgow but that is his older bro who plays OL).

FWIW...OP you getting the numbers wrong probably is probably a product of people looking at our listed depth chart from the pre-season. It lists 4 LBs (we never played more than 3 at a time...they changed Peppers role from a true SS to more of a rover and put in another safety and then eventually moved to 4 down lineman reducing it to 2 LBs) and Lyons went into the pre-season as the projected starter and then not only got passed by a number of guys but also was moved from CB to safety where he again got passed by a number of guys.

Keep forgetting about Mario. Him, bolden, Morgan and Wilson make 4 on defense. Plus the 3 on offense. 7 is accurate.

 

[StinkStankStunk]

That lists 4 LBS. we rarely, if ever, showed a 3-4. I understand where you got the list but it's simply not an accurate reflection of our D. It really depends on the defensive look. Regardless, the final number will be nowhere close to 12

LOL

 

[Go M&B]

LOL

Not sure what u think is funny as everything I wrote is 100% accurate.

 

[SR108]

Below is Penn St and each team on our record, their current ranking, W/L in 2015, and what they lose according to their depth chart at http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/ as well as a listing of those players (including Juniors) expected to be in the NFL Draft (CBS Sports mock at http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings).

You have the data, now you provide the informed analysis. Tell us our 2016 record given this information and potentially what you know about what teams have waiting in the wings. It will be our version of Steele's magazine a bit early.


DRAFT Rank/Name/Position/Position Rank/Measurables/Draft Round

Penn St unranked currently, 7-5, losing 5 Senior starters (already lost Lucas) and potentially 2 2nd Rd Jrs
44 Austin Johnson DT 7 Penn State rJr 6-3 325 2
50 Christian Hackenberg QB 4 Penn State Jr 6-4 236 2
55 Carl Nassib DE 8 Penn State rSr 6-6 270 2
105 Anthony Zettel DE 11 Penn State rSr 6-4 278 3-4
201 Kyle Carter TE 10 Penn State rSr 6-3 242 5-6
229 Jordan Lucas

SS 9 Penn State Sr 6-0 202 6-7
389 Trevor Williams CB 40 Penn State Sr 6-0 196 ––
624 Tarow Barney DT 45 Penn State Sr 6-1 310 ––
642 Angelo Mangiro C 23 Penn State rSr 6-3 315 ––
991 Ben Kline OLB 78 Penn State rSr 6-2 238


Kent State, unranked, 3-9, losing 5 senior starters according to depth chart
279 Trayion Durham FB 5 Kent State rSr 6-1 248 7-FA
789 Nate Terhune DT 57 Kent State rSr 6-4 270 ––
958 Anthony Melchiori P 16 Kent State Sr 5-11 190 ––

Pitt, unranked, 8-4, losing 7 Sr starters and likely Boyd in the 2nd Rd
47 Tyler Boyd WR 6 Pittsburgh Jr 6-2 200 2
354 J.P. Holtz TE 19 Pittsburgh Sr 6-3 250 ––
413 Darryl Render DT 32 Pittsburgh Sr 6-2 300 ––
505 Lafayette Pitts CB 49 Pittsburgh rSr 5-10 195 ––
845 Nicholas Grigsby OLB 69 Pittsburgh rSr 6-0 220 ––
866 Artie Rowell C 30 Pittsburgh rSr 6-1 310 ––
888 Ejuan Price OLB 71 Pittsburgh rSr 5-11 250

Temple, #22, 10-2, losing 10 Sr starters according to depth chart
68 Tyler Matakevich OLB 9 Temple Sr 6-0 232 2-3
243 Matt Ioannidis DT 21 Temple Sr 6-3 292 7
349 Kyle Friend C 11 Temple Sr 6-1 305 7-FA
635 Hershey Walton DT 46 Temple rSr 6-3 314 ––
947 Tavon Young CB 92 Temple Sr 5-9 180 ––


Michigan, #15, 9-3, losing 15 Sr starters including P and K and likely losing Butt in the 2nd Rd
49 Jake Butt TE 1 Michigan Jr 6-5 248 2
265 James Ross OLB 23 Michigan Sr 6-1 232 7-FA
324 Joe Kerridge FB 8 Michigan rSr 5-11 249 7-FA
381 Jake Rudock QB 23 Michigan rSr 6-2 208 ––
391 Graham Glasgow C 13 Michigan rSr 6-5 303 ––
415 Desmond Morgan OLB 34 Michigan Sr 6-1 236 ––
419 Joe Bolden ILB 21 Michigan Sr 6-3 232 ––
493 Wayne Lyons CB 48 Michigan rSr 6-0 193 ––
523 Jarrod Wilson FS 22 Michigan Sr 6-1 210 ––
751 Royce Jenkins-Stone OLB 60 Michigan Sr 6-2 240 ––

Minnesota, unranked, 5-7, losing 11 Sr starters including P
96 Briean Boddy-Calhoun CB 11 Minnesota rSr 5-10 189 3
146 Eric Murray CB 18 Minnesota Sr 5-11 196 4-5
175 De'Vondre Campbell OLB 16 Minnesota rSr 6-4 241 5
226 Theiren Cockran DE 20 Minnesota rSr 6-5 257 6-7
370 Peter Mortell P 7 Minnesota rSr 6-1 192 ––
392 Rodrick Williams Jr. RB 31 Minnesota Sr 5-10 229 ––
628 Josh Campion OG 37 Minnesota rSr 6-4 310 ––
830 Antonio Johnson SS 37 Minnesota Sr 5-11 212 ––
872 Miles Thomas FB 26 Minnesota Sr 5-10 250 ––
957 Brian Bobek C 34 Minnesota rSr 6-1 298 ––

Maryland, unranked, 3-9, losing 7 Sr. starters and maybe two Jrs (Rds 3/4,5/6)
127 William Likely CB 15 Maryland Jr 5-7 176 3-4
197 Yannick Ngakoue OLB 17 Maryland Jr 6-2 250 5-6
228 Brad Craddock K 2 Maryland Sr 6-0 192 6-7
244 Sean Davis CB 28 Maryland Sr 6-1 200 7
506 Anthony Nixon FS 21 Maryland Sr 6-0 205 ––
576 Brandon Ross RB 44 Maryland rSr 5-10 205 ––
853 A.J. Hendy SS 38 Maryland rSr 6-1 207 ––

BYE

Ohio St, #6, 11-1, losing 9 Sr. starters including K and maybe as many as 6 Jrs
1 Joey Bosa DE 1 Ohio State Jr 6-5 275 1
13 Taylor Decker OT 3 Ohio State Sr 6-7 315 1
16 Ezekiel Elliott RB 1 Ohio State Jr 6-0 225 1
24 Michael Thomas WR 2 Ohio State rJr 6-3 210 1
26 Adolphus Washington DT 5 Ohio State Sr 6-4 290 1-2
46 Vonn Bell SS 2 Ohio State Jr 5-11 205 2
51 Joshua Perry OLB 7 Ohio State Sr 6-4 254 2
78 Pat Elflein OG 5 Ohio State rJr 6-3 300 2-3
81 Cardale Jones QB 6 Ohio State rJr 6-5 250 2-3
95 Braxton Miller WR 12 Ohio State rSr 6-1 215 3
114 Nick Vannett TE 6 Ohio State rSr 6-6 260 3-4
364 Corey Smith

WR 44 Ohio State rSr 6-0 195 ––
383 Chase Farris OT 29 Ohio State rSr 6-5 310 ––
479 Jacoby Boren C 16 Ohio State Sr 6-1 285 ––
671 Tommy Schutt DT 49 Ohio State Sr 6-2 290 ––

Purdue, unranked, 2-10, losing 8 Sr starters including K
211 Frankie Williams CB 25 Purdue rSr 5-9 190 6
452 Robert Kugler C 15 Purdue rSr 6-3 295 ––
604 Ryan Watson DT 43 Purdue Sr 6-2 298 ––
615 Anthony Brown CB 61 Purdue Sr 5-11 190 ––
834 Danny Anthrop WR 115 Purdue Sr 5-11 191 ––
844 Paul Griggs K 12 Purdue Sr 6-1 196 ––

Iowa, #4, 12-0, losing 12 Sr starters including P and K and potentially losing King in Rd 3/4
125 *Desmond King CB 14 Iowa Jr 5-11 200 3-4
159 Jordan Lomax FS 5 Iowa rSr 5-10 205 4-5
194 Jordan Walsh OG 11 Iowa rSr 6-3 290 5-6
284 Austin Blythe C 8 Iowa rSr 6-2 290 7-FA
304 Cole Fisher OLB 25 Iowa rSr 6-2 236 7-FA
366 Jordan Canzeri RB 28 Iowa rSr 5-9 192 ––
374 Henry Krieger Coble TE 21 Iowa rSr 6-4 250 ––
418 Nate Meier DE 34 Iowa Sr 6-2 252 ––
444 Tevaun Smith WR 54 Iowa Sr 6-1 205

Indiana, unranked, 6-6, losing 8 Sr starters including K
36 Jason Spriggs OT 6 Indiana Sr 6-6 305 1-2
153 Nate Sudfeld QB 10 Indiana Sr 6-6 240 4-5
514 Michael Cooper TE 28 Indiana rSr 6-4 257 ––
796 Zack Shaw OLB 64 Indiana rSr 6-3 252 ––
915 Nick Mangieri DE 69 Indiana Sr 6-5 270

Rutgers, unranked, 4-8, losing 9 Sr starters including P and K
84 Leonte Carroo WR 10 Rutgers Sr 6-0 205 2-3
206 Paul James RB 18 Rutgers rSr 6-0 205 6
496 Keith Lumpkin OT 39 Rutgers rSr 6-7 310 ––
700 Quentin Gause OLB 55 Rutgers rSr 6-1 226 ––
793 Sam Bergen FB 23 Rutgers rSr 6-0 235 ––
930 Kaiwan Lewis ILB 44 Rutgers Sr 6-0 228 ––

Michigan St, #5, 11-1, losing 11 Sr starters and likely LT Conklin in Rd 1
20 Connor Cook

QB 3 Michigan State rSr 6-4 220 1
22 Jack Conklin OT 4 Michigan State rJr 6-6 318 1
42 Shilique Calhoun DE 7 Michigan State rSr 6-5 252 2
152 Aaron Burbridge WR 22 Michigan State Sr 6-1 208 4-5
166 Jack Allen C 5 Michigan State rSr 6-2 298 5
190 Joel Heath DT 17 Michigan State rSr 6-5 296 5-6
250 Arjen Colquhoun CB 29 Michigan State rSr 6-1 197 7
297 RJ Williamson

SS 13 Michigan State rSr 6-0 215 7-FA
329 DeAnthony Arnett WR 41 Michigan State rSr 5-11 182 7-FA
477 Darien Harris OLB 39 Michigan State rSr 6-0 220 ––
552 Taybor Pepper LS 4 Michigan State Sr 6-5 230 ––
569 Trevon Pendleton FB 15 Michigan State rSr 5-11 250 ––
573 Lawrence Thomas DT 40 Michigan State rSr 6-3 300 ––
746 Donavon Clark OG 44 Michigan State rSr 6-3 317
862 Macgarrett Kings Jr. WR 120 Michigan State Sr 5-10 186 ––

8-4 best case scenario. Most likely, 6-6

 

[StinkStankStunk]

Not sure what u think is funny as everything I wrote is 100% accurate.

Double LOL.

Guesses.....kinda' sorta' more-or-less.....cannot be - by definition - accurate. Can they?

Have a nice day.....and don't be late for study hall.

 

[ellobo]

Accordingly, only 3 of the 5 PSU SR starters listed played the last 2 games (Nassib would make 4 but he only played the 1st series of each game before the injury forced him back out). But they were available earlier in the season like your NT who helped win some games.

I agree...but the issue is less about who was hurt at what time but rather if a kid is in his last year of eligibility...for example, our NT (you mentioned) who didn't play against you this year is a RS JR. and expected back next year...so we are including him as a returning starter even if he didn't start against you guys...

The issue is that we list players (on the depth chart) by academic years and only indicate if they were redshirted if they return for a 5th...but that certainly doesn't mean they didn't get one...so if you didn't know that's how we do it then I can understand the confusion...btw, people on your board have told me that is they way you guys did it under Joe Pa also...

 

[StinkStankStunk]

8-4 best case scenario. Most likely, 6-6

Way to early to make an intelligent projection......but - what the heck :

8-4 if Hackenberg comes back
6-6 if he doesn't.

 

[Go M&B]

Double LOL.

Guesses.....kinda' sorta' more-or-less.....cannot be - by definition - accurate. Can they?

Have a nice day.....and don't be late for study hall.

There are no guesses. As of now UM loses 7 starters to graduation. Continue to think it rises to 12 if it makes you feel better.

 

[fairgambit]

9-3

 

[21Guns]

To add to this:

The OP says 15 but only lists 10 players. We lose the P but not the PK so if you add him that still is only 11:

1) Jake Butt is a JR...while he could go to the NFL he is not a senior so the # is back down to 10

2) You have 4 starting LBs listed and not once did Michigan run a 3-4 the entire season. To start the season Michigan ran a 3-3-5 with a safety coming into the box to give us a 3-4 look. By seasons end (and against you) we were running a 4-2-5 with a safety in the box to give us a 4-3 look. While it is fair to say Michigan graduates a lot of the guys who played the actual number is either 2 or 3 lost starters depending on which point of the season you are talking. So that brings the # down to 8 or 9 lost senior starters

3) Wayne Lyons was in no way shape or form a starter...besides special teams he hardly even played (pretty much only in "garbage time"). He was 3rd string. That brings the number down to 7 or 8 lost seniors starters...6 or 7 minus the punter...so roughly half of 15

Jake Butt is long gone pal. Projected as the first, or second TE taken in the draft and a sure fire star in the show on Sundays.

 

[21Guns]

The program will bottom out, finishing 5-7 next year, but playing in a Bowl game so we can get those 15 extra practices!

 

[21Guns]

The main question is not whether Hack will come back or not(He's gone), the question, is will Franklin begin the season with his recruits playing, albeit young, on the offensive line, or will he bring back the same kids who don't have D1 talent, for a third year. We all know their names.

Gonzales and Bates have been said to have been ready to play this year, but the staff did not want to burn their shirts. Shirts are off this year, let's see if they win those jobs in the spring. If they don't, Franklin is going to put those same three kids on the field in our interior offensive line, and we will get man handled yet again.

 

[bmw199]

8-4? Lower expectations will certainly help the program going into next year.

 

[bmw199]

The main question is not whether Hack will come back or not(He's gone), the question, is will Franklin begin the season with his recruits playing, albeit young, on the offensive line, or will he bring back the same kids who don't have D1 talent, for a third year. We all know their names.

Gonzales and Bates have been said to have been ready to play this year, but the staff did not want to burn their shirts. Shirts are off this year, let's see if they win those jobs in the spring. If they don't, Franklin is going to put those same three kids on the field in our interior offensive line, and we will get man handled yet again.

I don't think some of those guys will even be on the roster next year. Not many of our RS Jrs are coming back for their 5th year.

 

[21Guns]

I don't think some of those guys will even be on the roster next year. Not many of our RS Jrs are coming back for their 5th year.

I have not heard anything so far...I see no upside or value in those kids being asked to come back: They never had the ability to play in the first place at this level. They would not have value, either as starters OR as backups on a two deep. If they are on the field, we are losing to any decent defense. I suppose that some value could be explained in that we are still going to be very very young next year, and the staff will want to redshirt Menet and McGovern? On the other hand, it's rubber meets the road time for Mahon, Brosnan, Beh, and Sorrell this year. Is Sorrell going to get big enough to play? Is Beh ready finally?

 

[ellobo]

Jake Butt is long gone pal. Projected as the first, or second TE taken in the draft and a sure fire star in the show on Sundays.

Huh...didn't know a member of his family posted on this board

 

[PSUfan98]

OK, so despite the Michigan sidebar with Michigan fans (would love to beat them but there are 11 other opponents on our schedule to talk about), I'll give you my thoughts.

PSU will be slightly improved overall from this past year.
-Kent St. will improve but not enough to pull a Temple. 95% Win
-Pitt will be about the same and maybe slightly improved even without Boyd. 50% Win
-Temple will take a moderate step back if Rhule returns, they will fall pretty far back if he leaves. 75% Win
-Michigan takes a small step back with losses to almost same as this year. 45% Win
-Minnesota is a little weaker or maybe about the same. 75% Win
-Maryland may improve slightly but not enough. 80% Win
-Ohio St loses a lot but seems to have the talent to reload. The question is if the locker room pulls together or comes apart. Eventually I think it will similar to UF but not yet. Slightly worse year for the nutcases. 30% Win
-Purdue has to improve if not by much. 85% Win
-Iowa takes a step back but is still pretty good. 40% Win
-Indiana ends up pretty close to where they did this year. 70% Win
-Rutgers will still be Rutgers, maybe about the same. 75% Win
-Mich St takes a sizeable step back but will be tough as long as Dantonio is there. 40% Win

So I see us most likely 8-4 or even 7-5. Pitt will tell us a lot. The ceiling is likely 9 wins but I'd set the over/under at 8.

 

[phillybillyreprise]

"Who" is returning for Michigan
"What" is going to leave as junior
"I don't know" will be the PSU OC

Now with that background and my standing as 61st in the McAndrew Board "pickem", I definitely think that the Nittany Lions will win 7 or 8 games next year.
I win cheer for them to go 13-0.

 

[bdgan]

Below is Penn St and each team on our record, their current ranking, W/L in 2015, and what they lose according to their depth chart at http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/ as well as a listing of those players (including Juniors) expected to be in the NFL Draft (CBS Sports mock at http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings).

You have the data, now you provide the informed analysis. Tell us our 2016 record given this information and potentially what you know about what teams have waiting in the wings. It will be our version of Steele's magazine a bit early.


DRAFT Rank/Name/Position/Position Rank/Measurables/Draft Round

Penn St unranked currently, 7-5, losing 5 Senior starters (already lost Lucas) and potentially 2 2nd Rd Jrs
44 Austin Johnson DT 7 Penn State rJr 6-3 325 2
50 Christian Hackenberg QB 4 Penn State Jr 6-4 236 2
55 Carl Nassib DE 8 Penn State rSr 6-6 270 2
105 Anthony Zettel DE 11 Penn State rSr 6-4 278 3-4
201 Kyle Carter TE 10 Penn State rSr 6-3 242 5-6
229 Jordan Lucas

SS 9 Penn State Sr 6-0 202 6-7
389 Trevor Williams CB 40 Penn State Sr 6-0 196 ––
624 Tarow Barney DT 45 Penn State Sr 6-1 310 ––
642 Angelo Mangiro C 23 Penn State rSr 6-3 315 ––
991 Ben Kline OLB 78 Penn State rSr 6-2 238


Kent State, unranked, 3-9, losing 5 senior starters according to depth chart
279 Trayion Durham FB 5 Kent State rSr 6-1 248 7-FA
789 Nate Terhune DT 57 Kent State rSr 6-4 270 ––
958 Anthony Melchiori P 16 Kent State Sr 5-11 190 ––

Pitt, unranked, 8-4, losing 7 Sr starters and likely Boyd in the 2nd Rd
47 Tyler Boyd WR 6 Pittsburgh Jr 6-2 200 2
354 J.P. Holtz TE 19 Pittsburgh Sr 6-3 250 ––
413 Darryl Render DT 32 Pittsburgh Sr 6-2 300 ––
505 Lafayette Pitts CB 49 Pittsburgh rSr 5-10 195 ––
845 Nicholas Grigsby OLB 69 Pittsburgh rSr 6-0 220 ––
866 Artie Rowell C 30 Pittsburgh rSr 6-1 310 ––
888 Ejuan Price OLB 71 Pittsburgh rSr 5-11 250

Temple, #22, 10-2, losing 10 Sr starters according to depth chart
68 Tyler Matakevich OLB 9 Temple Sr 6-0 232 2-3
243 Matt Ioannidis DT 21 Temple Sr 6-3 292 7
349 Kyle Friend C 11 Temple Sr 6-1 305 7-FA
635 Hershey Walton DT 46 Temple rSr 6-3 314 ––
947 Tavon Young CB 92 Temple Sr 5-9 180 ––


Michigan, #15, 9-3, losing 15 Sr starters including P and K and likely losing Butt in the 2nd Rd
49 Jake Butt TE 1 Michigan Jr 6-5 248 2
265 James Ross OLB 23 Michigan Sr 6-1 232 7-FA
324 Joe Kerridge FB 8 Michigan rSr 5-11 249 7-FA
381 Jake Rudock QB 23 Michigan rSr 6-2 208 ––
391 Graham Glasgow C 13 Michigan rSr 6-5 303 ––
415 Desmond Morgan OLB 34 Michigan Sr 6-1 236 ––
419 Joe Bolden ILB 21 Michigan Sr 6-3 232 ––
493 Wayne Lyons CB 48 Michigan rSr 6-0 193 ––
523 Jarrod Wilson FS 22 Michigan Sr 6-1 210 ––
751 Royce Jenkins-Stone OLB 60 Michigan Sr 6-2 240 ––

Minnesota, unranked, 5-7, losing 11 Sr starters including P
96 Briean Boddy-Calhoun CB 11 Minnesota rSr 5-10 189 3
146 Eric Murray CB 18 Minnesota Sr 5-11 196 4-5
175 De'Vondre Campbell OLB 16 Minnesota rSr 6-4 241 5
226 Theiren Cockran DE 20 Minnesota rSr 6-5 257 6-7
370 Peter Mortell P 7 Minnesota rSr 6-1 192 ––
392 Rodrick Williams Jr. RB 31 Minnesota Sr 5-10 229 ––
628 Josh Campion OG 37 Minnesota rSr 6-4 310 ––
830 Antonio Johnson SS 37 Minnesota Sr 5-11 212 ––
872 Miles Thomas FB 26 Minnesota Sr 5-10 250 ––
957 Brian Bobek C 34 Minnesota rSr 6-1 298 ––

Maryland, unranked, 3-9, losing 7 Sr. starters and maybe two Jrs (Rds 3/4,5/6)
127 William Likely CB 15 Maryland Jr 5-7 176 3-4
197 Yannick Ngakoue OLB 17 Maryland Jr 6-2 250 5-6
228 Brad Craddock K 2 Maryland Sr 6-0 192 6-7
244 Sean Davis CB 28 Maryland Sr 6-1 200 7
506 Anthony Nixon FS 21 Maryland Sr 6-0 205 ––
576 Brandon Ross RB 44 Maryland rSr 5-10 205 ––
853 A.J. Hendy SS 38 Maryland rSr 6-1 207 ––

BYE

Ohio St, #6, 11-1, losing 9 Sr. starters including K and maybe as many as 6 Jrs
1 Joey Bosa DE 1 Ohio State Jr 6-5 275 1
13 Taylor Decker OT 3 Ohio State Sr 6-7 315 1
16 Ezekiel Elliott RB 1 Ohio State Jr 6-0 225 1
24 Michael Thomas WR 2 Ohio State rJr 6-3 210 1
26 Adolphus Washington DT 5 Ohio State Sr 6-4 290 1-2
46 Vonn Bell SS 2 Ohio State Jr 5-11 205 2
51 Joshua Perry OLB 7 Ohio State Sr 6-4 254 2
78 Pat Elflein OG 5 Ohio State rJr 6-3 300 2-3
81 Cardale Jones QB 6 Ohio State rJr 6-5 250 2-3
95 Braxton Miller WR 12 Ohio State rSr 6-1 215 3
114 Nick Vannett TE 6 Ohio State rSr 6-6 260 3-4
364 Corey Smith

WR 44 Ohio State rSr 6-0 195 ––
383 Chase Farris OT 29 Ohio State rSr 6-5 310 ––
479 Jacoby Boren C 16 Ohio State Sr 6-1 285 ––
671 Tommy Schutt DT 49 Ohio State Sr 6-2 290 ––

Purdue, unranked, 2-10, losing 8 Sr starters including K
211 Frankie Williams CB 25 Purdue rSr 5-9 190 6
452 Robert Kugler C 15 Purdue rSr 6-3 295 ––
604 Ryan Watson DT 43 Purdue Sr 6-2 298 ––
615 Anthony Brown CB 61 Purdue Sr 5-11 190 ––
834 Danny Anthrop WR 115 Purdue Sr 5-11 191 ––
844 Paul Griggs K 12 Purdue Sr 6-1 196 ––

Iowa, #4, 12-0, losing 12 Sr starters including P and K and potentially losing King in Rd 3/4
125 *Desmond King CB 14 Iowa Jr 5-11 200 3-4
159 Jordan Lomax FS 5 Iowa rSr 5-10 205 4-5
194 Jordan Walsh OG 11 Iowa rSr 6-3 290 5-6
284 Austin Blythe C 8 Iowa rSr 6-2 290 7-FA
304 Cole Fisher OLB 25 Iowa rSr 6-2 236 7-FA
366 Jordan Canzeri RB 28 Iowa rSr 5-9 192 ––
374 Henry Krieger Coble TE 21 Iowa rSr 6-4 250 ––
418 Nate Meier DE 34 Iowa Sr 6-2 252 ––
444 Tevaun Smith WR 54 Iowa Sr 6-1 205

Indiana, unranked, 6-6, losing 8 Sr starters including K
36 Jason Spriggs OT 6 Indiana Sr 6-6 305 1-2
153 Nate Sudfeld QB 10 Indiana Sr 6-6 240 4-5
514 Michael Cooper TE 28 Indiana rSr 6-4 257 ––
796 Zack Shaw OLB 64 Indiana rSr 6-3 252 ––
915 Nick Mangieri DE 69 Indiana Sr 6-5 270

Rutgers, unranked, 4-8, losing 9 Sr starters including P and K
84 Leonte Carroo WR 10 Rutgers Sr 6-0 205 2-3
206 Paul James RB 18 Rutgers rSr 6-0 205 6
496 Keith Lumpkin OT 39 Rutgers rSr 6-7 310 ––
700 Quentin Gause OLB 55 Rutgers rSr 6-1 226 ––
793 Sam Bergen FB 23 Rutgers rSr 6-0 235 ––
930 Kaiwan Lewis ILB 44 Rutgers Sr 6-0 228 ––

Michigan St, #5, 11-1, losing 11 Sr starters and likely LT Conklin in Rd 1
20 Connor Cook

QB 3 Michigan State rSr 6-4 220 1
22 Jack Conklin OT 4 Michigan State rJr 6-6 318 1
42 Shilique Calhoun DE 7 Michigan State rSr 6-5 252 2
152 Aaron Burbridge WR 22 Michigan State Sr 6-1 208 4-5
166 Jack Allen C 5 Michigan State rSr 6-2 298 5
190 Joel Heath DT 17 Michigan State rSr 6-5 296 5-6
250 Arjen Colquhoun CB 29 Michigan State rSr 6-1 197 7
297 RJ Williamson

SS 13 Michigan State rSr 6-0 215 7-FA
329 DeAnthony Arnett WR 41 Michigan State rSr 5-11 182 7-FA
477 Darien Harris OLB 39 Michigan State rSr 6-0 220 ––
552 Taybor Pepper LS 4 Michigan State Sr 6-5 230 ––
569 Trevon Pendleton FB 15 Michigan State rSr 5-11 250 ––
573 Lawrence Thomas DT 40 Michigan State rSr 6-3 300 ––
746 Donavon Clark OG 44 Michigan State rSr 6-3 317
862 Macgarrett Kings Jr. WR 120 Michigan State Sr 5-10 186 ––

Losing to Pitt would be horrible. It would make a mockery of dominating the state for 3 years.

Got to beat MD, RUT, INDY, PUR, & MINN.
Iowa & OSU will be tough.
Got to win at least one of UM and MSU.

That's 9-3. Losing to Pitt and both Michigan teams would mean another 7-5 which is unacceptable.

 

[LemonEars]

Easy wins against inferior opponents: Kent, Pitt, Temple, Minnesota, Maryland, Purdue, Indiana, Rutgers

Toss Ups: Michigan, Iowa

Likely Losses: Ohio State, Michigan State

Thus, I predict 9-3 or 10-2. Both equally likely.

Below is Penn St and each team on our record, their current ranking, W/L in 2015, and what they lose according to their depth chart at http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/ as well as a listing of those players (including Juniors) expected to be in the NFL Draft (CBS Sports mock at http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings).

You have the data, now you provide the informed analysis. Tell us our 2016 record given this information and potentially what you know about what teams have waiting in the wings. It will be our version of Steele's magazine a bit early.


DRAFT Rank/Name/Position/Position Rank/Measurables/Draft Round

Penn St unranked currently, 7-5, losing 5 Senior starters (already lost Lucas) and potentially 2 2nd Rd Jrs
44 Austin Johnson DT 7 Penn State rJr 6-3 325 2
50 Christian Hackenberg QB 4 Penn State Jr 6-4 236 2
55 Carl Nassib DE 8 Penn State rSr 6-6 270 2
105 Anthony Zettel DE 11 Penn State rSr 6-4 278 3-4
201 Kyle Carter TE 10 Penn State rSr 6-3 242 5-6
229 Jordan Lucas

SS 9 Penn State Sr 6-0 202 6-7
389 Trevor Williams CB 40 Penn State Sr 6-0 196 ––
624 Tarow Barney DT 45 Penn State Sr 6-1 310 ––
642 Angelo Mangiro C 23 Penn State rSr 6-3 315 ––
991 Ben Kline OLB 78 Penn State rSr 6-2 238


Kent State, unranked, 3-9, losing 5 senior starters according to depth chart
279 Trayion Durham FB 5 Kent State rSr 6-1 248 7-FA
789 Nate Terhune DT 57 Kent State rSr 6-4 270 ––
958 Anthony Melchiori P 16 Kent State Sr 5-11 190 ––

Pitt, unranked, 8-4, losing 7 Sr starters and likely Boyd in the 2nd Rd
47 Tyler Boyd WR 6 Pittsburgh Jr 6-2 200 2
354 J.P. Holtz TE 19 Pittsburgh Sr 6-3 250 ––
413 Darryl Render DT 32 Pittsburgh Sr 6-2 300 ––
505 Lafayette Pitts CB 49 Pittsburgh rSr 5-10 195 ––
845 Nicholas Grigsby OLB 69 Pittsburgh rSr 6-0 220 ––
866 Artie Rowell C 30 Pittsburgh rSr 6-1 310 ––
888 Ejuan Price OLB 71 Pittsburgh rSr 5-11 250

Temple, #22, 10-2, losing 10 Sr starters according to depth chart
68 Tyler Matakevich OLB 9 Temple Sr 6-0 232 2-3
243 Matt Ioannidis DT 21 Temple Sr 6-3 292 7
349 Kyle Friend C 11 Temple Sr 6-1 305 7-FA
635 Hershey Walton DT 46 Temple rSr 6-3 314 ––
947 Tavon Young CB 92 Temple Sr 5-9 180 ––


Michigan, #15, 9-3, losing 15 Sr starters including P and K and likely losing Butt in the 2nd Rd
49 Jake Butt TE 1 Michigan Jr 6-5 248 2
265 James Ross OLB 23 Michigan Sr 6-1 232 7-FA
324 Joe Kerridge FB 8 Michigan rSr 5-11 249 7-FA
381 Jake Rudock QB 23 Michigan rSr 6-2 208 ––
391 Graham Glasgow C 13 Michigan rSr 6-5 303 ––
415 Desmond Morgan OLB 34 Michigan Sr 6-1 236 ––
419 Joe Bolden ILB 21 Michigan Sr 6-3 232 ––
493 Wayne Lyons CB 48 Michigan rSr 6-0 193 ––
523 Jarrod Wilson FS 22 Michigan Sr 6-1 210 ––
751 Royce Jenkins-Stone OLB 60 Michigan Sr 6-2 240 ––

Minnesota, unranked, 5-7, losing 11 Sr starters including P
96 Briean Boddy-Calhoun CB 11 Minnesota rSr 5-10 189 3
146 Eric Murray CB 18 Minnesota Sr 5-11 196 4-5
175 De'Vondre Campbell OLB 16 Minnesota rSr 6-4 241 5
226 Theiren Cockran DE 20 Minnesota rSr 6-5 257 6-7
370 Peter Mortell P 7 Minnesota rSr 6-1 192 ––
392 Rodrick Williams Jr. RB 31 Minnesota Sr 5-10 229 ––
628 Josh Campion OG 37 Minnesota rSr 6-4 310 ––
830 Antonio Johnson SS 37 Minnesota Sr 5-11 212 ––
872 Miles Thomas FB 26 Minnesota Sr 5-10 250 ––
957 Brian Bobek C 34 Minnesota rSr 6-1 298 ––

Maryland, unranked, 3-9, losing 7 Sr. starters and maybe two Jrs (Rds 3/4,5/6)
127 William Likely CB 15 Maryland Jr 5-7 176 3-4
197 Yannick Ngakoue OLB 17 Maryland Jr 6-2 250 5-6
228 Brad Craddock K 2 Maryland Sr 6-0 192 6-7
244 Sean Davis CB 28 Maryland Sr 6-1 200 7
506 Anthony Nixon FS 21 Maryland Sr 6-0 205 ––
576 Brandon Ross RB 44 Maryland rSr 5-10 205 ––
853 A.J. Hendy SS 38 Maryland rSr 6-1 207 ––

BYE

Ohio St, #6, 11-1, losing 9 Sr. starters including K and maybe as many as 6 Jrs
1 Joey Bosa DE 1 Ohio State Jr 6-5 275 1
13 Taylor Decker OT 3 Ohio State Sr 6-7 315 1
16 Ezekiel Elliott RB 1 Ohio State Jr 6-0 225 1
24 Michael Thomas WR 2 Ohio State rJr 6-3 210 1
26 Adolphus Washington DT 5 Ohio State Sr 6-4 290 1-2
46 Vonn Bell SS 2 Ohio State Jr 5-11 205 2
51 Joshua Perry OLB 7 Ohio State Sr 6-4 254 2
78 Pat Elflein OG 5 Ohio State rJr 6-3 300 2-3
81 Cardale Jones QB 6 Ohio State rJr 6-5 250 2-3
95 Braxton Miller WR 12 Ohio State rSr 6-1 215 3
114 Nick Vannett TE 6 Ohio State rSr 6-6 260 3-4
364 Corey Smith

WR 44 Ohio State rSr 6-0 195 ––
383 Chase Farris OT 29 Ohio State rSr 6-5 310 ––
479 Jacoby Boren C 16 Ohio State Sr 6-1 285 ––
671 Tommy Schutt DT 49 Ohio State Sr 6-2 290 ––

Purdue, unranked, 2-10, losing 8 Sr starters including K
211 Frankie Williams CB 25 Purdue rSr 5-9 190 6
452 Robert Kugler C 15 Purdue rSr 6-3 295 ––
604 Ryan Watson DT 43 Purdue Sr 6-2 298 ––
615 Anthony Brown CB 61 Purdue Sr 5-11 190 ––
834 Danny Anthrop WR 115 Purdue Sr 5-11 191 ––
844 Paul Griggs K 12 Purdue Sr 6-1 196 ––

Iowa, #4, 12-0, losing 12 Sr starters including P and K and potentially losing King in Rd 3/4
125 *Desmond King CB 14 Iowa Jr 5-11 200 3-4
159 Jordan Lomax FS 5 Iowa rSr 5-10 205 4-5
194 Jordan Walsh OG 11 Iowa rSr 6-3 290 5-6
284 Austin Blythe C 8 Iowa rSr 6-2 290 7-FA
304 Cole Fisher OLB 25 Iowa rSr 6-2 236 7-FA
366 Jordan Canzeri RB 28 Iowa rSr 5-9 192 ––
374 Henry Krieger Coble TE 21 Iowa rSr 6-4 250 ––
418 Nate Meier DE 34 Iowa Sr 6-2 252 ––
444 Tevaun Smith WR 54 Iowa Sr 6-1 205

Indiana, unranked, 6-6, losing 8 Sr starters including K
36 Jason Spriggs OT 6 Indiana Sr 6-6 305 1-2
153 Nate Sudfeld QB 10 Indiana Sr 6-6 240 4-5
514 Michael Cooper TE 28 Indiana rSr 6-4 257 ––
796 Zack Shaw OLB 64 Indiana rSr 6-3 252 ––
915 Nick Mangieri DE 69 Indiana Sr 6-5 270

Rutgers, unranked, 4-8, losing 9 Sr starters including P and K
84 Leonte Carroo WR 10 Rutgers Sr 6-0 205 2-3
206 Paul James RB 18 Rutgers rSr 6-0 205 6
496 Keith Lumpkin OT 39 Rutgers rSr 6-7 310 ––
700 Quentin Gause OLB 55 Rutgers rSr 6-1 226 ––
793 Sam Bergen FB 23 Rutgers rSr 6-0 235 ––
930 Kaiwan Lewis ILB 44 Rutgers Sr 6-0 228 ––

Michigan St, #5, 11-1, losing 11 Sr starters and likely LT Conklin in Rd 1
20 Connor Cook

QB 3 Michigan State rSr 6-4 220 1
22 Jack Conklin OT 4 Michigan State rJr 6-6 318 1
42 Shilique Calhoun DE 7 Michigan State rSr 6-5 252 2
152 Aaron Burbridge WR 22 Michigan State Sr 6-1 208 4-5
166 Jack Allen C 5 Michigan State rSr 6-2 298 5
190 Joel Heath DT 17 Michigan State rSr 6-5 296 5-6
250 Arjen Colquhoun CB 29 Michigan State rSr 6-1 197 7
297 RJ Williamson

SS 13 Michigan State rSr 6-0 215 7-FA
329 DeAnthony Arnett WR 41 Michigan State rSr 5-11 182 7-FA
477 Darien Harris OLB 39 Michigan State rSr 6-0 220 ––
552 Taybor Pepper LS 4 Michigan State Sr 6-5 230 ––
569 Trevon Pendleton FB 15 Michigan State rSr 5-11 250 ––
573 Lawrence Thomas DT 40 Michigan State rSr 6-3 300 ––
746 Donavon Clark OG 44 Michigan State rSr 6-3 317
862 Macgarrett Kings Jr. WR 120 Michigan State Sr 5-10 186 ––

 

[MartyInLawrenceville]

On the Pitt list, Ejuan Price is going to petition for a 6th year, due to injuries. Early reports are that he's likely to get it. Other than that, that list looks good. Boyd hasn't said anything, of course, but he and Conner would be nuts to come back. Even if they're not high draft picks (and Conner won't be, very few RB's are drafted high anymore due to the $ vs. punishment factor. Boyd probably dropped in status this season, probably a low 2nd round/high 3rd round), I think they're both going pro.

 

[21Guns]

Pitt returns 4 of their 5 offensive linemen, we are going to have trouble stopping them. We return 4 of our 5 offensive linemen, but that is probably the only case of that situation in the country, where returning 4 of 5, is a bad thing, haha.

 

[bdgan]

Pitt returns 4 of their 5 offensive linemen, we are going to have trouble stopping them. We return 4 of our 5 offensive linemen, but that is probably the only case of that situation in the country, where returning 4 of 5, is a bad thing, haha.

Our DTs will be challenged. I wish we would have redshirted Barney. Our LBs should be much improved if Wartman is healthy. Let's hope that Reid improves at DB. He had to play much too early.

 

[bison13]

14-0. just because I can dream