Some hack’s(me) bowl projection

[RTRMR]

This is all depends on tOSU and Minnesota

The short version: Outback or Rose, or playoffs!

I love how all of these college football “experts” have us to the Citrus!
If you are a CFB analyst, and have us in the Citrus, then you lose all credibility!

I think our bowl fate rests in 3 factors:
1. What Minnesota and/or Wisconsin does
2. What tOSU does
3. tOSU beats Meeeeeeechigan(which gives UM 3 losses).

Minnesota:
Either way, I see them having no less than 2 losses. Does that loss come vs. Wisconsin on 11/30, or in the CCG vs. OSU.
If they lose to NW, Saturday, they’re toast!
Minnesota loses to Wisconsin(which gives them 2 losses)and Wisconsin loses to OSU, in the CCG, that gives Wisconsin 3 losses, and Minnesota 2.
In this scenario, we go to(at worst) the Rose.
Minnesota beats Wisconsin, then loses to OSU in CCG......
If Minnesota loses close, I think it’s splitting hairs of us vs. them for the Rose.
If Minnesota gets beat down vs. OSU, then we’re in the Rose.

The ONLY 2 Big Ten teams with 2 losses would be us and Minnesota.

Now, the above is assuming on OSUs fate! If OSU wins out, the Big Ten West will have either a 2 or 3 loss team!

Orange - it’ll be VaTech/UVa winner vs Georgia/ND
Cotton - It’ll be NonP5 vs UF/Georgia

If we beat tOSU Saturday, we’re at worst Rose, and at best playoffs.

If OSU beats us Saturday, we’re at the fate of what Minnesota does.

I still think we go to the Rose over a 2 loss Minnesota(due to their weak schedule).

To summarize:

Win Saturday, and absolute worse case is Rose. Lose the CCG, and we are still at Rose at 11-2. Win the CCG, and it’s Rose or playoffs

Lose Saturday, and we’re 10-2. This puts us tied with Minnesota(assuming they’re 11-2 or 10-2). It’s splitting hairs between us and them for the Rose. Since we’re 99% ineligible for the Citrus(since we went last year), this puts us in the Outback!

My prediction is that it boils down to this:
We lose to OSU Saturday, beat Rutgers, and finish at 10-2.
IF Wisconsin beats Minnesota, then loses to OSU in CCG, we’re in the Rose(Wisconsin has 3 losses)
IF Minnesota beats Wisconsin, and loses to OSU, in the CCG, they’re it’s splitting hairs us vs then for the Rose. We lose “splitting hairs”, we go to the Outback.

 

[77 PSU]

If we win on Saturday and lose in the championship game we won’t go to the Rose Bowl as whoever beats us would be the BIG champ and would go.

 

[Art]

This is all depends on tOSU and Minnesota

The short version: Outback or Rose, or playoffs!

I love how all of these college football “experts” have us to the Citrus!
If you are a CFB analyst, and have us in the Citrus, then you lose all credibility!

I think our bowl fate rests in 3 factors:
1. What Minnesota and/or Wisconsin does
2. What tOSU does
3. tOSU beats Meeeeeeechigan(which gives UM 3 losses).

Minnesota:
Either way, I see them having no less than 2 losses. Does that loss come vs. Wisconsin on 11/30, or in the CCG vs. OSU.
If they lose to NW, Saturday, they’re toast!
Minnesota loses to Wisconsin(which gives them 2 losses)and Wisconsin loses to OSU, in the CCG, that gives Wisconsin 3 losses, and Minnesota 2.
In this scenario, we go to(at worst) the Rose.
Minnesota beats Wisconsin, then loses to OSU in CCG......
If Minnesota loses close, I think it’s splitting hairs of us vs. them for the Rose.
If Minnesota gets beat down vs. OSU, then we’re in the Rose.

The ONLY 2 Big Ten teams with 2 losses would be us and Minnesota.

Now, the above is assuming on OSUs fate! If OSU wins out, the Big Ten West will have either a 2 or 3 loss team!

Orange - it’ll be VaTech/UVa winner vs Georgia/ND
Cotton - It’ll be NonP5 vs UF/Georgia

If we beat tOSU Saturday, we’re at worst Rose, and at best playoffs.

If OSU beats us Saturday, we’re at the fate of what Minnesota does.

I still think we go to the Rose over a 2 loss Minnesota(due to their weak schedule).

To summarize:

Win Saturday, and absolute worse case is Rose. Lose the CCG, and we are still at Rose at 11-2. Win the CCG, and it’s Rose or playoffs

Lose Saturday, and we’re 10-2. This puts us tied with Minnesota(assuming they’re 11-2 or 10-2). It’s splitting hairs between us and them for the Rose. Since we’re 99% ineligible for the Citrus(since we went last year), this puts us in the Outback!

My prediction is that it boils down to this:
We lose to OSU Saturday, beat Rutgers, and finish at 10-2.
IF Wisconsin beats Minnesota, then loses to OSU in CCG, we’re in the Rose(Wisconsin has 3 losses)
IF Minnesota beats Wisconsin, and loses to OSU, in the CCG, they’re it’s splitting hairs us vs then for the Rose. We lose “splitting hairs”, we go to the Outback.

Don't underestimate the chances of a two-loss Minnesota being selected over a two-loss PSU by the Rose. Unless the Rose Bowl committee believes that Minnesota fans won't travel, I'd expect it.

 

[PSUoh90]

Orange - it’ll be VaTech/UVa winner vs Georgia/ND

In what scenario would ND be ranked ahead of PSU?

 

[aquapong]

If we win on Saturday and lose in the championship game we won’t go to the Rose Bowl as whoever beats us would be the BIG champ and would go.

Not if they are in the playoffs.

At this point, I see us in the Outback. The Rose will take Minne over us as a 2 loss team since we lost to them and we’ve been there more recently. We can’t go to the Citrus and the Orange is unlikely due to the number of Sec teams above us already (barring a shocking upset somewhere).

Of course we could pull off some miracle next week and face Minne/Wisc in the Big Ten champ game, we’d be playing for a playoff spot.

 

[PSUoh90]

Not if they are in the playoffs.

At this point, I see us in the Outback. The Rose will take Minne over us as a 2 loss team since we lost to them and we’ve been there more recently. We can’t go to the Citrus and the Orange is unlikely due to the number of Sec teams above us already (barring a shocking upset somewhere).

Of course we could pull off some miracle next week and face Minne/Wisc in the Big Ten champ game, we’d be playing for a playoff spot.

By your logic, Minnesota will be ranked ahead of PSU this week. Do you think that will be the case?

 

[RTRMR]

I’m going with the below 2 scenarios:

Wisconsin beats Minnesota, then Wisconsin loses to OSU in CCG.
That puts us at 10-2, Wisc at 10-3, and Minnesota at 10-2.
In this scenario, I think we’re ranked higher than both of these teams in the CFP rankings, putting us in the Rose(we’d have better quality wins over both, Michigan, Iowa, and maybe even Pitt).

If Minnesota beats Wisconsin, then loses to OSU, that puts them at 11-2, us at 10-2, and Wisconsin at 9-3.
This would now be splitting hairs of us vs them for the Rose.

Am I correct in the above?
It really comes down to who is ranked higher between us and Minnesota/who the Rose wants more.

With scenario 1, I believe we’re in the Rose. With scenario 2, I think we’re in the Outback.

I don’t see Florida losing to FSU, so I think Florida gets Cotton.

Now, if we win Saturday, that changes everything!

Anyone else agree/disagree with the above???

 

[LemonEars]

I’m going with the below 2 scenarios:

Wisconsin beats Minnesota, then Wisconsin loses to OSU in CCG.
That puts us at 10-2, Wisc at 10-3, and Minnesota at 10-2.
In this scenario, I think we’re ranked higher than both of these teams in the CFP rankings, putting us in the Rose(we’d have better quality wins over both, Michigan, Iowa, and maybe even Pitt).

If Minnesota beats Wisconsin, then loses to OSU, that puts them at 11-2, us at 10-2, and Wisconsin at 9-3.
This would now be splitting hairs of us vs them for the Rose.

Am I correct in the above?
It really comes down to who is ranked higher between us and Minnesota/who the Rose wants more.

With scenario 1, I believe we’re in the Rose. With scenario 2, I think we’re in the Outback.

I don’t see Florida losing to FSU, so I think Florida gets Cotton.

Now, if we win Saturday, that changes everything!

Anyone else agree/disagree with the above???

If Minny beats Wisconsin and loses to OSU in the CCG then a big factor will be the eye test of whether us or Minny gave OSU a better game. If we lose to OSU by say 27 - 21 and Minny loses by 56 - 3, then we get the Rose Bowl. If Minny plays them better then they get the Rose Bowl.

 

[psufan1999797]

If Minny beats Wisconsin and loses to OSU in the CCG then a big factor will be the eye test of whether us or Minny gave OSU a better game. If we lose to OSU by say 27 - 21 and Minny loses by 56 - 3, then we get the Rose Bowl. If Minny plays them better then they get the Rose Bowl.

Outback. Blech. Would rate right up there with last year's UK game as far as my interest goes. So regarding the statement above, does the Rose Bowl have the flexibility to take any two loss team or must it be the higher ranked team?

 

[PSUoh90]

If Minny beats Wisconsin and loses to OSU in the CCG then a big factor will be the eye test of whether us or Minny gave OSU a better game. If we lose to OSU by say 27 - 21 and Minny loses by 56 - 3, then we get the Rose Bowl. If Minny plays them better then they get the Rose Bowl.

Minny has to win at Northwestern on Saturday. That’s a big look ahead spot to Wisconsin for them. I think this game will be a lot closer than many think.

 

[bcspsu]

Outback. Blech. Would rate right up there with last year's UK game as far as my interest goes. So regarding the statement above, does the Rose Bowl have the flexibility to take any two loss team or must it be the higher ranked team?

I totally agree with you. Unfortunately, almost every bowl projection that I looked at today has PSU going there to play most likely Auburn; I saw one projection that has us playing A&M. Either opponent does nothing for me.

 

[PSUoh90]

Outback. Blech. Would rate right up there with last year's UK game as far as my interest goes. So regarding the statement above, does the Rose Bowl have the flexibility to take any two loss team or must it be the higher ranked team?

Going to the Outback Bowl at 10-2 with 1 of those losses coming on the road vs the best team in the country would be absolutely tragic.

The Rose Bowl is still very much in the equation though.

 

[mrmk5110]

Having situations where a team like Virginia or Wake Forest would get in over teams like PSU is why I hate bowl tie ins.

Right now the Orange Bowl is projected to be Alabama vs Wake Forest. That is a dreadful matchup that the NY6 committee cannot fathomably see as being good for the bowl system, as no one will want to watch Alabama crush Virginia.

 

[bcspsu]

Going to the Outback Bowl at 10-2 with 1 of those losses coming on the road vs the best team in the country would be absolutely tragic.

The Rose Bowl is still very much in the equation though.

I thought that even a 10-2 PSU would have a great shot going to the Rose Bowl. However, based on the "experts," that isn't likely. It's a shame that this had to the year that Michigan didn't play Minnesota, because that would've given that school 3 losses, because I expect that they'll lose to Wisconsin this weekend.

 

[bdgan]

The ONLY 2 Big Ten teams with 2 losses would be us and Minnesota.

Not if Michigan beats Indy & OSU

 

[djm_psu_alum]

This is all depends on tOSU and Minnesota

The short version: Outback or Rose, or playoffs!

I love how all of these college football “experts” have us to the Citrus!
If you are a CFB analyst, and have us in the Citrus, then you lose all credibility!

I think our bowl fate rests in 3 factors:
1. What Minnesota and/or Wisconsin does
2. What tOSU does
3. tOSU beats Meeeeeeechigan(which gives UM 3 losses).

Minnesota:
Either way, I see them having no less than 2 losses. Does that loss come vs. Wisconsin on 11/30, or in the CCG vs. OSU.
If they lose to NW, Saturday, they’re toast!
Minnesota loses to Wisconsin(which gives them 2 losses)and Wisconsin loses to OSU, in the CCG, that gives Wisconsin 3 losses, and Minnesota 2.
In this scenario, we go to(at worst) the Rose.
Minnesota beats Wisconsin, then loses to OSU in CCG......
If Minnesota loses close, I think it’s splitting hairs of us vs. them for the Rose.
If Minnesota gets beat down vs. OSU, then we’re in the Rose.

The ONLY 2 Big Ten teams with 2 losses would be us and Minnesota.

Now, the above is assuming on OSUs fate! If OSU wins out, the Big Ten West will have either a 2 or 3 loss team!

Orange - it’ll be VaTech/UVa winner vs Georgia/ND
Cotton - It’ll be NonP5 vs UF/Georgia

If we beat tOSU Saturday, we’re at worst Rose, and at best playoffs.

If OSU beats us Saturday, we’re at the fate of what Minnesota does.

I still think we go to the Rose over a 2 loss Minnesota(due to their weak schedule).

To summarize:

Win Saturday, and absolute worse case is Rose. Lose the CCG, and we are still at Rose at 11-2. Win the CCG, and it’s Rose or playoffs

Lose Saturday, and we’re 10-2. This puts us tied with Minnesota(assuming they’re 11-2 or 10-2). It’s splitting hairs between us and them for the Rose. Since we’re 99% ineligible for the Citrus(since we went last year), this puts us in the Outback!

My prediction is that it boils down to this:
We lose to OSU Saturday, beat Rutgers, and finish at 10-2.
IF Wisconsin beats Minnesota, then loses to OSU in CCG, we’re in the Rose(Wisconsin has 3 losses)
IF Minnesota beats Wisconsin, and loses to OSU, in the CCG, they’re it’s splitting hairs us vs then for the Rose. We lose “splitting hairs”, we go to the Outback.

Just my two cents but...

• I haven't seen one bowl projection with us in the Citrus. It's been all Outback, a few Taxslayer, and one in the Rose.
• I think IF it is a 10-3 Wisc vs 10-2 Minn vs 10-2 PSU, it will be a lot closer choice.
  • If 10-3 gets killed a 2nd time by OSU, that's good for us.
  • If 10-2 Minn gets killed by Wisc, that's good for us.
  • If we get killed by OSU and the above also happens, I have no idea where the CFP committee would go. I'd have to think Minnesota.
  • I think if we lose a very close one, we are probably guaranteed the Rose Bowl slot, provided OSU wins the B10.
• I agree that it is likely Rose/Outback since the other NY6 will be out of our control. If things could fall our way, the Orange or Cotton could be in our grasp.
• Ultimately, our bowl fate rests on the above three factors but also with:
  • the SEC - if they get 4 teams into the NY6 (LSU, Georgia, Bama, and FL) we have no shot at the Cotton/Orange UNLESS 2 of those 4 get into the playoff which bumps all of them up a spot.
  • the Pac12 - it would help us when compared to Oregon and Utah if one were to take a loss before the Pac12 champ game. If Pac12 gets two NY6 bids (excl playoffs), we have no hope at Cotton/Orange.
  • the Big 12 - similar situation as Pac12; it would help if Baylor can take another loss prior to the Big12 champ game (that could come this week vs Texas). A 2nd team into the NY6 definitely knocks us out.
  • Where we are in the CFP compared to Florida Utah, Oregon, and Minnesota. Our loss is better than all of theirs (well except Minn since they beat us h2h). We need to be in the top 8 this week because anything other than a close loss to OSU (sorry, I'm not going to entertain the hypothetical of a win vs OSU) would drop us.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Don't underestimate the chances of a two-loss Minnesota being selected over a two-loss PSU by the Rose. Unless the Rose Bowl committee believes that Minnesota fans won't travel, I'd expect it.

I completely agree. Minn needs to fall at least 3 slots below us to provide us a cushion when we fall to OSU. We would/may fall below them in next week's CFP (since we'd be 9-2 and they'd be 10-1) but if they lose to Wisconsin, they should drop below us in the Dec 8 final CFP.

Either way, a 60-year Rose Bowl absence and feel-good story would be hard to pass up for the Rose Bowl.

 

[interrobang]

PSU won't be in the Taxslayer or Citrus since they've been there recently.

If PSU fell out of the NY6 and didn't end up in the Outback, it'd be Holiday.

 

[africamurphy]

I don't see how we don't end up in a New Year's 6 bowl this season. I have read the prognosticators too...but I think when it all shakes out, we will be FIRMLY in the top 10 nationally (at 10-2). And that is virtually guaranteed a New Year's Six berth.

Obviousy the OSU/UM and Wiscy/Minny games could affect that...but I don't see how we drop behind three other Big Ten teams...and the Big Ten has had three teams in the New Year's Six most years, right?

 

[africamurphy]

I don't see how we don't end up in a New Year's 6 bowl this season. I have read the prognosticators too...but I think when it all shakes out, we will be FIRMLY in the top 10 nationally (at 10-2). And that is virtually guaranteed a New Year's Six berth.

Obviousy the OSU/UM and Wiscy/Minny games could affect that...but I don't see how we drop behind three other Big Ten teams...and the Big Ten has had three teams in the New Year's Six most years, right?

Just went and checked...we've had 2 teams in twice, 3 teams in twice, and 4 teams in once.

And this is a year where the Big Ten is considered very strong.

 

[interrobang]

I don't see how we don't end up in a New Year's 6 bowl this season. I have read the prognosticators too...but I think when it all shakes out, we will be FIRMLY in the top 10 nationally (at 10-2). And that is virtually guaranteed a New Year's Six berth.

All it takes is two SEC teams ahead of PSU (but not in the CPF) and an extra Big 12 or Pac 12 team ahead of PSU (after the Sugar and Rose fill their slots) and PSU isn't getting a NY6 bid.

If Bama and Florida are ahead of PSU and Oregon and Utah are ahead of PSU and none of those 4 teams is in the playoff, then the only chance is the Big Ten deciding that PSU is more attractive in the Rose than Wisky or Minny.

 

[anon_1eeb2b426hv3y]

Not if Michigan beats Indy & OSU

If Michigan beats Indy and OSU, that’d be horrible.

And I’d have to say Jimmah did a fantastic job of turning this season around.

 

[aquapong]

Not if they are in the playoffs.

At this point, I see us in the Outback. The Rose will take Minne over us as a 2 loss team since we lost to them and we’ve been there more recently. We can’t go to the Citrus and the Orange is unlikely due to the number of Sec teams above us already (barring a shocking upset somewhere).

Of course we could pull off some miracle next week and face Minne/Wisc in the Big Ten champ game, we’d be playing for a playoff spot.

By your logic, Minnesota will be ranked ahead of PSU this week. Do you think that will be the case?

I don’t think there’s anything locking the Rose Bowl selection committee in to taking the higher ranked team. I just believe if we’re not in the playoff, we’re going to be the odd man out this season.

 

[Art]

I completely agree. Minn needs to fall at least 3 slots below us to provide us a cushion when we fall to OSU. We would/may fall below them in next week's CFP (since we'd be 9-2 and they'd be 10-1) but if they lose to Wisconsin, they should drop below us in the Dec 8 final CFP.

Either way, a 60-year Rose Bowl absence and feel-good story would be hard to pass up for the Rose Bowl.

I don't think the rankings will make a difference unless something causes Minnesota to fall through the floor. Agree that there is a predisposition to favor the team with the furthest removed last appearance. Only thing that would counter that is if Minnesota fans aren't perceived as good travelers. I have no way to tell that either way.

 

[interrobang]

Minnesota struggled to sell out their biggest home game in decades. I can't imagine they'd sell out a major bowl game

 

[BUCKSCOUNTYLION]

Problem is the NY Six Bowls are not decided by the Bowls themselves but the CFP committee. Bowls have no say.

 

[interrobang]

Problem is the NY Six Bowls are not decided by the Bowls themselves but the CFP committee. Bowls have no say.

Rose Bowl is the only bowl with a say. The rest all take the highest rated team leftover for their tie-in conference.

 

[marshall23]

Checking out The Lair.....the consensus is that Coastal Champ Pitt will beat Clemson in the ACC Title game and go to the Orange Bowl. Does the Orange Bowl care about attendance?

 

[Thomas1945]

Checking out The Lair.....the consensus is that Coastal Champ Pitt will beat Clemson in the ACC Title game and go to the Orange Bowl. Does the Orange Bowl care about attendance?

Now you are probably just making stupid shit up. And no I’m not going to the Lair to fact check you because I just took a shower.