Stats fun

[LemonPie]

Hey guys. I’m going to be experimenting with the way I look at and record wrestling data this year. Wrestling is in the dark ages when it comes to recording basic statistics, so I thought I’d take advantage of some of the expanded coverage and see if there’s anything that can come of it. With a 24-hour pass to the Army dual, and no scoreboard/clock on the screen, it is more trouble than it’s worth to give a full report, but thought I’d just give y’all an example of what I’m talking about. Will hope to give some more examples with the Stanford dual.

Points For/7 Minutes Adjusted, Points Against/7 Minutes Adjusted, & Point Differential/7 Minutes Adjusted

Pretty straight forward. Points earned and points given up in a match are adjusted for the full 7 minute period. This is pretty simple for a standard 7 minute match, as your stats do not change. For example:

Nick Suriano
PF/7- 15
PA/7- 4
PD/7- 11

Where we make adjustments, is when a match is shortened either by tech or by pin. In the case of a pin, the wrestler is allotted his points scored + the full scoring sequence before the time of fall. This includes any nearfall that would be awarded had a fall not been secured. No points for a defensive fall. For example, in Bo’s match, the sequence would be adjusted and recorded as 6-0 at the time of fall (0:25). A score of 6 is then calculated for the 7 minutes as such:

(420 seconds/match seconds) X Number of points adjusted

(420/25) X 6 = 100.8

Bo Nickal’s points scored, adjusted for 7 minutes is 100.8

Now, that may seem silly to have a PF/7 min of 100.8--nobody could score 100 points in 7 minutes-- but statistics in sports will have anomalies due to a small sample size, and things tend to even out. This rewards pins. His PA is still 0, and his PD/adjusted for the match is 100.8.

In the case of a tech, you just need to adjust the score and the time. For example, Vincenzo Joseph score of 21-6 is adjusted to- PF/7: 26.25 PA: 7.5 PD: 18.75- when you consider his time of 5:36.

OT/SV- works the same way. Long OT matches and rideout sequences will hurt your PF/7 minutes score.

One thing that wasn’t factored in, but considered, was adding a riding time point for those who had a pin/tech when applicable. This would have used adjusted riding time/7 minutes-- meaning, Jason Nolf would NOT get a RT point in his pin when RT adjusted to 7 minutes (<1 min), but Bo Nickal would (adjusted 5+).

Results
So here's what we found against Army. Sorry if this post is a little clunky-- are there no options to attach a pdf file or excel? Maybe I'm an idiot.

Penn State had 44:22 of mat time and 131 PF and 32 PA (adjusted)

As a team against Army: PF/7 20.64, PA/ 5.04, PD/7 15.60

Other individual results of note:

Jason - PF/7: 30.21 PA/7: 12.09 PD/7: 19.12
Nevills- PF/7: 26.35 PA/7: 3.10 PD/7: 23.25

So, of course, Jason's looks a little weird, because you might think he gives up a lot of points, but when you start to log things like number of escapes (or number of intentional escapes) and account for sample size, it doesn't really mean much.

 

[Sean Harp]

Hey LP. Being a total stats nerd, I love the idea. The only way I know to share data is to upload your Excel file to Google Docs and then share the link. Regards, Sean

 

[LemonPie]

Hey LP. Being a total stats nerd, I love the idea. The only way I know to share data is to upload your Excel file to Google Docs and then share the link. Regards, Sean

Awesome. Thanks. Definitely will have to keep that in mind.

 

[diggerpup]

All this higher level stats you're taking on should distract you from railing too hard on Morelli. Lol

 

[slushhead]

All this higher level stats you're taking on should distract you from railing too hard on Morelli. Lol

Oh, but didn't you know . . . that the purpose of this exercise is to illustrate in black-and-white how "one of these wrestlers is not like the others, one of these wrestlers does not belong"?

 

[LemonPie]

Oh, but didn't you know . . . that the purpose of this exercise is to illustrate in black-and-white how "one of these wrestlers is not like the others, one of these wrestlers does not belong"?

You can do that with an old-fashioned eye test.

 

[LemonPie]

Well, I haven't done a full dual report of stats like I said I might. Maybe Lehigh. I'm lazy. But I like my PF/PA 7 minutes adjusted and we've been fortunate to have video for each match so that I could keep up with it. Here's a spreadsheet on what the scoring looks like:

Sheet 1- Suriano, Cortez, Gulibon, Moss
Sheet 2- Retherford, Nolf, Joseph, Morelli
Sheet 3- Rasheed, Nickal, Cutch, Nevills
Sheet 4- Team Total





Some notes:
Cortez is someone who mashes, but can't hit left handed pitching right now. Or his home splits look great in Denver playing for the Rockies. Small sample size, but he's someone you'll have to pay close attention to when it comes to "splits." We can expect some regression here.

Gulibon got something like a two point boost with his quick 16-0 tech, though getting pinned early did bring him back down

Zain is the most dominant wrestler right now. He has the greatest point differential is getting turns in a hurry. His PF/7 is closer to Nolf than you might think because pins are valued.

Nolf is the most offensive wrestler in the scoring system, but playing catch and release, and giving up takedowns has put his PD behind Zain and Bo. Still, not by much. And his level of competition has been much better. Jason, you the real MVP.

Vincenzo's numbers still hurting from Subjeck match, but got a little back from garbage time in the Walsh match. Quality of opponents also keeping his numbers down a bit.

Cutch's numbers didn't really surprise me. He is what he is at 197. Not really sure what to expect. Hoping to expect a bit of a jump at some point

I included Moss and Rasheed in the Team overall stats, but otherwise just starters:

PF/7: 15.307
PA/7: 4.107

PD/7: 11.2

 

[RandyL]

Geez...if you devoted all this energy to something else, I bet you could make the world a better place.

Or perhaps rule it.

 

[dropster45]

Stats are fun for sure! They tell us "what" happened, past tense...in numbers. What draws us to them is that they can sometimes reveal "why". Then too, winning a National Championship, or 5, is the direct result of numbers,...or stats if you will. That's "what" happened, albeit on a large scale.
All that said, here's the "why":
Past generations of wrestlers, alumni, and fans - over the course of time - poured an exceedingly large amount of support, material, philosophically, and otherwise, into the program. They hired the best staff available, and built the best facility available. The coaching staff then recruited the best wrestlers they could find, both in terms of the sport, but also academics and other specific attributes. The wrestlers were asked to work hard every day in school and on the mat. They were asked to be polite, kind, generous, gracious, and helpful to others - good citizens! They were asked to be persistent and never give up. That's what happened.

 

[LemonPie]

Interestingly enough, because of the length of match and low scoring between two PSU wrestlers, the Geno-Rasheed match brought the entire team's season PF/7 down by almost an entire point. Would be 16.16 if you throw it out. PD/7 was also brought down by over 1/2 point.