Team fall record may be broken this year

[matter7172]

I spent some time looking through the Penn State records over the years and could not find an entry for most falls by a team. I did some quick "search and calculate" and as best as I could figure out, the 2013 team's 90 is the record. That is a fairly daunting number to surpass.

After the 25 (if I count correctly) falls yesterday, this year's team has 31 falls (6 in the first two duals). before December. With 12 dual meets, Reno and the end of season tournaments, I have to believe 60 more falls is within reach.

It's pretty incredible. But I also have to believe that Cortez, Zain, Nolf and Nickal will continue to pile up a lot of falls and that the rest of the lineup will also contribute. I'm going to be interested in following this.

I am informed there were 27 pins yesterday, so PSU stands at 33 on the year as a team.

 

[RoarLions1]

I have the stats for the Cael years, and a little before...will post later.

 

[NoVa Lion]

Do all the falls from Sunday count in the team total or just those that were the official scorers? If they all do and that is also true for open tournaments then the years when the Moore brothers were at PSU would have a lot of falls. They both pinned a ton of opponents and wrestled a LOT of matches.

 

[RoarLions1]

Do all the falls from Sunday count in the team total or just those that were the official scorers? If they all do and that is also true for open tournaments then the years when the Moore brothers were at PSU would have a lot of falls. They both pinned a ton of opponents and wrestled a LOT of matches.

Good question. They all count in the team totals, but separate stats are kept for "duals only", so it really depends on how we want to slice and dice the data. Since there were no RS's yesterday, and all were D1 opponents, all results go into the record books. Will try to take out the variability, and give a little perspective.

 

[matter7172]

Do all the falls from Sunday count in the team total or just those that were the official scorers? If they all do and that is also true for open tournaments then the years when the Moore brothers were at PSU would have a lot of falls. They both pinned a ton of opponents and wrestled a LOT of matches.

Josh Moore wrestled 52(!!!) matches in 2003-4, the year in which he pinned 24 opponents, which is the PSU single season mark.

http://www.pennstatewrestlingclub.org/history/index.php?view=seasonduals&season=2004

 

[dunkej01]

Josh Moore wrestled 52(!!!) matches in 2003-4, the year in which he pinned 24 opponents, which is the PSU single season mark.

http://www.pennstatewrestlingclub.org/history/index.php?view=seasonduals&season=2004

Never thought I would say this but I will.

After looking at zains future opps, I think it's even money that he could break Moores record.

I would also think Bo should be over 18.

Nolf could to but his penchant for scoring has him TF a few that if he focused on the fall would slide columns.

That's nuts to ponder.

Ps - they come back next year.

 

[RoarLions1]

Josh Moore wrestled 52(!!!) matches in 2003-4, the year in which he pinned 24 opponents, which is the PSU single season mark.

http://www.pennstatewrestlingclub.org/history/index.php?view=seasonduals&season=2004

And Scott Moore wrestled 63 bouts in 2002-03, most I've ever seen.

 

[RoarLions1]

Zain's 5 falls yesterday gets him onto the first page of the record book for career falls, tied for 17th at 25. He's within 6 of top-10 (31 falls). Still a ways to go for DT's and Josh's top mark (53), but share your optimism!!

Never thought I would say this but I will.

After looking at zains future opps, I think it's even money that he could break Moores record.

I would also think Bo should be over 18.

Nolf could to but his penchant for scoring has him TF a few that if he focused on the fall would slide columns.

That's nuts to ponder.

Ps - they come back next year.

 

[tomsc]

Zain wasn't a pinner his FR year, so he has a good bit of ground to make up. But he could very well do it. To break the record any more, you really have to have a very high pin percentage.

 

[RoarLions1]

Zain wasn't a pinner his FR year, so he has a good bit of ground to make up. But he could very well do it. To break the record any more, you really have to have a very high pin percentage.

To put tom's comment into perspective, Zain had 4 falls as a TRFR. DT had 8 as a RSFR, and Josh Moore had 6 his 1st year. Not a huge difference, except we're talking stratosphere here re. the PSU Records. Also, Zain will likely wrestle 40 fewer matches in his career than Josh, and is on-track to wrestle about the same number as DT.

EDIT: Thought I would add that Nolf had 15 in his first season of wrestling.

 

[Raw Daddy]

Can someone explain to me how Moore got so many matches that year? It's incredible.

 

[PSU Mike]

Remind me. Among Zain, Jason, and Bo, has any match gone 7 minutes thus far this season?

 

[NoVa Lion]

Can someone explain to me how Moore got so many matches that year? It's incredible.

Wrestled in a bunch of open tournaments plus all of the regular season duals, Midlands, National Duals, etc.

 

[PSUcup1]

Remind me. Among Zain, Jason, and Bo, has any match gone 7 minutes thus far this season?

No.

Bo is 6-0 with 6 falls
Nolf is 7-0 with 5 falls and 2 TF
Zain is 7-0 with 6 falls and 1 TF

 

[tomsc]

No.

Bo is 6-0 with 6 falls
Nolf is 7-0 with 5 falls and 2 TF
Zain is 7-0 with 6 falls and 1 TF

Pretty phenomenal, total of 20 straight matches not going the distance! I don't think that's happened too many times.

 

[RoarLions1]

Can someone explain to me how Moore got so many matches that year? It's incredible.

Wrestled in a bunch of open tournaments plus all of the regular season duals, Midlands, National Duals, etc.

Scott had 21 matches in before December 1st that year;
Michigan State Open - 5
West Virginia Open - 7
East Stroudsburg Open - 5
Mat Town - 4

Add in the NLO (5), Midlands (7), Big Ten's and NCAA's, as well as 19 Duals...and that's a lot of wrestling.

 

[T J]

No.

Bo is 6-0 with 6 falls
Nolf is 7-0 with 5 falls and 2 TF
Zain is 7-0 with 6 falls and 1 TF

Looks like about 117 team points vs regular decisions for 20 bouts totaling 60 team points.

That's a team advantage of 57 points, or an average increase of 2.85 points per bout. That average would produce an advantage of 8.55 points per match, or approaching 3 extra wins.

Let's Light the BT Season!

Anyone got a Match?


​

 

[RoarLions1]

Fall stats, among other things...

2010-11 --- 107 Total Falls, 35 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 14.6% of all matches, 18.4% in 19 duals)
2011-12 --- 104 Total Falls, 25 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 15.7% of all matches, 17.8% in 14 duals)
2012-13 --- 114 Total Falls, 31 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 16.0% of all matches, 22.1% in 14 duals)
2013-14 --- 90 Total Falls, 16 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 13.5% of all matches, 10.0% in 16 duals)
2014-15 --- 60 Total Falls, 14 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 10.5% of all matches, 9.3% in 15 duals)
2015-16 --- 96 Total Falls, 32 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 16.3% of all matches, 20.0% in 16 duals)

The total number of FALLS includes the entire team (so RS's are included). The overall fall rate is impacted greatly by how the non-starters wrestle. Total matches number as low as 573 (2014-15), and as high as 734 (2011-12), that's why a rate was calculated...to normalize the data. Also, the number of duals vary, from 14 to 19, so again, a rate was calculated.

 

[T J]

Fall stats, among other things...

2010-11 --- 107 Total Falls, 35 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 14.6% of all matches, 18.4% in 19 duals)
2011-12 --- 104 Total Falls, 25 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 15.7% of all matches, 17.8% in 14 duals)
2012-13 --- 114 Total Falls, 31 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 16.0% of all matches, 22.1% in 14 duals)
2013-14 --- 90 Total Falls, 16 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 13.5% of all matches, 10.0% in 16 duals)
2014-15 --- 60 Total Falls, 14 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 10.5% of all matches, 9.3% in 15 duals)
2015-16 --- 96 Total Falls, 32 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 16.3% of all matches, 20.0% in 16 duals)

The total number of FALLS includes the entire team (so RS's are included). The overall fall rate is impacted greatly by how the non-starters wrestle. Total matches number as low as 573 (2014-15), and as high as 734 (2011-12), that's why a rate was calculated...to normalize the data. Also, the number of duals vary, from 14 to 19, so again, a rate was calculated.

Great work RoarLions1!
Much appreciated.

Don't want to inconvenience you in any way, but here is a question for you.

Since the season's win loss record is based on starters or likely starters, would it be worth looking at that subset some time? That look would also provide an indicator of relative fall capabilities among those likely to see the mat during our duals and tournaments. Perhaps a predictive window into how this team might do. (Lots of other variables can cloud that of course)

That might not be criteria you want to use, for whatever reason. Of course, use your time as you see fit. What ever you think is fine.


However - Please know that your having fun with the wrestling stats that you choose to review are appreciated and quite enjoyable for others too.

Again, thanks for the nice work you do, helping us to understand these kinds of comparisons. It is a nice addition to the board, imho.

Cheers!!

 

[matter7172]

Fall stats, among other things...

2010-11 --- 107 Total Falls, 35 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 14.6% of all matches, 18.4% in 19 duals)
2011-12 --- 104 Total Falls, 25 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 15.7% of all matches, 17.8% in 14 duals)
2012-13 --- 114 Total Falls, 31 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 16.0% of all matches, 22.1% in 14 duals)
2013-14 --- 90 Total Falls, 16 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 13.5% of all matches, 10.0% in 16 duals)
2014-15 --- 60 Total Falls, 14 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 10.5% of all matches, 9.3% in 15 duals)
2015-16 --- 96 Total Falls, 32 in duals (Fall "rate" -- 16.3% of all matches, 20.0% in 16 duals)

The total number of FALLS includes the entire team (so RS's are included). The overall fall rate is impacted greatly by how the non-starters wrestle. Total matches number as low as 573 (2014-15), and as high as 734 (2011-12), that's why a rate was calculated...to normalize the data. Also, the number of duals vary, from 14 to 19, so again, a rate was calculated.

Wow! Thanks for the work. I was pretty far off on the numbers.

 

[RoarLions1]

Great work RoarLions1!
Much appreciated.

Don't want to inconvenience you in any way, but here is a question for you.

Since the season's win loss record is based on starters or likely starters, would it be worth looking at that subset some time? That look would also provide an indicator of relative fall capabilities among those likely to see the mat during our duals and tournaments. Perhaps a predictive window into how this team might do. (Lots of other variables can cloud that of course)

That might not be criteria you want to use, for whatever reason. Of course, use your time as you see fit. What ever you think is fine.


However - Please know that your having fun with the wrestling stats that you choose to review are appreciated and quite enjoyable for others too.

Again, thanks for the nice work you do, helping us to understand these kinds of comparisons. It is a nice addition to the board, imho.

Cheers!!

For ONLY the 10 starters (those that wrestled at Big Ten's), here's 5 years of data;

2011-12: 68 Falls in 310 matches (21.9% Falls)
2012-13: 77 Falls in 328 matches (23.5% Falls)
2013-14: 55 Falls in 333 matches (16.5% Falls)
2014-15: 34 Falls in 333 matches (10.2% Falls)
2015-16: 58 Falls in 299 matches (19.4% Falls)

Keep in mind, 2012-13 saw 7 wrestlers with 8 or more falls (Pearsall, A. Alton, D. Alton, DT, Brown, ER, & Q).

 

[matter7172]

For ONLY the 10 starters (those that wrestled at Big Ten's), here's 5 years of data;

2011-12: 68 Falls in 310 matches (21.9% Falls)
2012-13: 77 Falls in 328 matches (23.5% Falls)
2013-14: 55 Falls in 333 matches (16.5% Falls)
2014-15: 34 Falls in 333 matches (10.2% Falls)
2015-16: 58 Falls in 299 matches (19.4% Falls)

Keep in mind, 2012-13 saw 7 wrestlers with 8 or more falls (Pearsall, A. Alton, D. Alton, DT, Brown, ER, & Q).

I'd say those numbers stand a good chance of being surpassed this year. I believe Zain, Nolf and Nickal will each surpass 20 pins. That leaves less than 20 for the rest of the team. Cortez is really tough on top and likes to go for pins. Joseph should get some, as well as Suriano. It's going to fun watching the numbers add up.

 

[T J]

For ONLY the 10 starters (those that wrestled at Big Ten's), here's 5 years of data;

2011-12: 68 Falls in 310 matches (21.9% Falls)
2012-13: 77 Falls in 328 matches (23.5% Falls)
2013-14: 55 Falls in 333 matches (16.5% Falls)
2014-15: 34 Falls in 333 matches (10.2% Falls)
2015-16: 58 Falls in 299 matches (19.4% Falls)

Keep in mind, 2012-13 saw 7 wrestlers with 8 or more falls (Pearsall, A. Alton, D. Alton, DT, Brown, ER, & Q).

You're the best!

Thanks RoarLions1!

 

[RoarLions1]

I'd say those numbers stand a good chance of being surpassed this year. I believe Zain, Nolf and Nickal will each surpass 20 pins. That leaves less than 20 for the rest of the team. Cortez is really tough on top and likes to go for pins. Joseph should get some, as well as Suriano. It's going to fun watching the numbers add up.

Only 3 times in our history have 20 pins or more been recorded in a season. Josh Moore had 24, but had to wrestle 52 bouts. Scott Moore had 22 in 63 bouts. And Cary Kolat had 20 in 39 bouts. It's REAL optimistic that 3 guys will achieve that in the same season, especially given that they'll only get 32-33 matches in.

 

[RandyL]

We're not gonna break the falls record if Nolf doesnt get his act together.
Cant abide all these tech falls.
I'm worried about him.

Thanks Roar.

 

[Tom McAndrew]

Only 3 times in our history have 20 pins or more been recorded in a season. Josh Moore had 24, but had to wrestle 52 bouts. Scott Moore had 22 in 63 bouts. And Cary Kolat had 20 in 39 bouts. It's REAL optimistic that 3 guys will achieve that in the same season, especially given that they'll only get 32-33 matches in.

the # of matches seems to be the limiting factor.

let's work this through for Zain.

so far, he's had 7 matches, and gotten pins in 6 of them.

he has 12 dual matches left. while he should be the favorite in each of them, only 4 of them are matches against guys that are currently ranked pretty low (like his 7 matches so far) -- Garcia (Binghamton), Stroker (MN), Shearer (Nebraska), and Oster (NW). (Caveat that we have no idea who he'll face in the National Dual, but it should be a strong wrestler.) Of the 12, 2 are Sorensen and M. Jordan. I think most of us would be surprised to see him pin either of them. I'll be a little generous, and say he'll pin 5 of the others.

Running math: 6 + 5 = 11

Then there's the Reno TOC. I checked last year's brackets, and the winner at 149 had a bye in R1, and then wrestled 5 matches. Of the teams registered for Reno, only 1 guy at his weight is ranked by Flo (Collica, Ok. St.). I won't be quite as generous, so I'll say that he'll pin 3 guys in the tournament.

Runnning math: 6 + 5 + 3 = 14

Then there's the B1G Tournament. Last year, Zain had 4 matches at B1Gs, and got 2 pins there. I'd be surprised if he got more than that this year, as there are currently 5 guys at 149 in Flo's top 20 rankings. So, we'll go with 2.

Running math:

6 + 5 + 3 + 2 = 16

Lastly, there's NCAAs. Last year, Zain had 5 matches at Nationals, and got 3 pins there. Personally, I think 2 is a better number to use for projections, but for the purposes of this discussion I'll go with Zain repeating his performance from last year, and getting 3 pins.

Running math:

6 + 5 + 3 + 2 + 3 = 19

To me, that's a pretty realistic projection. While Zain is a returning NCAA champ, and is dominating his competition this year, it would be a bit of a stretch to imagine that he'll even get 20 pins this year.

Of course, he could mess up the math projections a bit, if he were to lose early at Reno, at B1Gs, or at NCAAs, and then go on a search and destroy mission through the consolations (which would get him additional matches). While anything is possible, I think most of us would be stunned if he ended up in the consolation bracket at any of the aforementioned tournaments.

 

[RoarLions1]

Tom, all,
That would shatter the season "% Falls" record. 50% or higher has only happened in 5 seasons in our entire history, and only once from a wrestler with more than 20 bouts...Cary Kolat (20 falls in 39 bouts). We'll see...are we witnessing history?

 

[a_mshaffer]

then add in tech falls! However that is hard to do since the rules have changed.

 

[El-Jefe]

Not predicting it, but I won't be surprised if Zain sticks Jordan. Last year Jordan had trouble getting out from bottom in a few matches, not where you want to be against Zain.

 

[Cowbell Man]

Tom, all,
That would shatter the season "% Falls" record. 50% or higher has only happened in 5 seasons in our entire history, and only once from a wrestler with more than 20 bouts...Cary Kolat (20 falls in 39 bouts). We'll see...are we witnessing history?

You posted the Optimistic post before I did. suggesting 3 guys maintain a 50% rate for the whole season? Wow. I get these three are amazing with falls, but.....all 3? It's tough for just 1 guy to pin at that rate. I think Zain can, Nolf maybe (TF to get in the way) and do not expect Bo to keep that pace with real competition.

 

[matter7172]

Zain and Jason both had 15 falls last year. I don't think it's overly optimistic for them to exceed 20. Nolf pinned 5 B1G opponents last year, for example. I feel both wrestlers are better at pinning this year. Bo only has 14 to go.

 

[RoarLions1]

The coaches left a competition date on the table, and we didn't do the multiple-day, one competition date thingy, so the guys will get 2-3 fewer matches than last year. Doesn't sound like much, until we start talking about a 60%+ fall rate, and even one fewer match is one less opportunity to get to 20. I guess it's within the realm of possibility, just think the odds are against it. I would rate the chances of all 3 guys getting 20, which is where this all started, at near 0%. Just one man's opinion.

My hope is that everyone stays healthy and has the good fortune of wrestling the entire season. More important, again, imo.

While I'm posting...here's another stat on season % falls. Looking at the top 25 all-time, here's a decade-by-decade breakdown...and the decade we're in is only 70% complete, so we'll be adding to it the next 3 seasons;

Decade --------- # of times a season shows up in the top 25

1940's --------- 4
1950's --------- 5
1960's --------- 3
1970's --------- 2
1980's --------- 0
1990's --------- 1
2000's --------- 2
2010's --------- 8

 

[manmythlegend1]

Very enjoyable thread to read Imagine how many Pins Zain would have if he wrestled as many matches as Moore..lol