Tesla - exited short sale
- Thread starter blion72
- Start date
first - I want to say that this forum has a lot of sharp people who have good backgrounds. the discussions bring great points on any topic whether Tesla or our OL play.
a common theme here is the Tesla success and EV market trend success are conjoined. it sounds like most of us see ICE to EV or ICE to hybrid to EV trends happening and some type of EV world is the future. some may think an all EV world is in 5 years and other 50 years, but pretty much we all seem to feel we will be driving expensive golf carts in the future.
you could be an EV bull and a Tesla skeptic. that is possible. the discussions around Tesla have been more their operational capabilities and style vs the EV market. Tesla has adapted well to avoid collapse financially, but they are given a valuation that is not close to what they have done. much of this seems to be that Musk is involved. If Tesla were sold to one of the big 5 today, what would it be worth without Musk? The SEC should have punished Musk harder than they did (GM CEO Mary would have been destroyed for that behavior). SEC lead attorney made comment that taking Musk out would punish the stockholders. Musk should have had at least a few recalls on product already, but avoided regulators. finally the market is still treating Tesla like a startup. What would happen to GM valuation if they had pivoted 10 years ago to all EV and today had the very same results as Tesla has today.....would it be the highest valuation in the global auto market?
who knows their future, but down the road we might see them sell the brand (the car itself) for nice profit and pivot to being a T1 battery/power company serving all markets. then they dont have to worry about making cars at a profit. let someone else try and design/build cars.
I made a little on the first short and got out before another tweet. I may try again, depending on how things go. no logic supports current valuation, no matter what you think of the EV market. they would need 50-100/share earnings to do that. that is alot of profitable cars.
but pretty much we all seem to feel we will be driving expensive golf carts in the future.
You should test drive a Tesla.
If Tesla were sold to one of the big 5 today, what would it be worth without Musk?
I assume they would drive Telsa into the ground in a few years, so zero. Gotta keep that profitable fossil fuel vehicles rolling!
The SEC should have punished Musk harder than they did (GM CEO Mary would have been destroyed for that behavior). SEC lead attorney made comment that taking Musk out would punish the stockholders. Musk should have had at least a few recalls on product already, but avoided regulators.
This sounds a lot like Tesla FUD.
What would happen to GM valuation if they had pivoted 10 years ago to all EV and today had the very same results as Tesla has today.....
They came out with the all electric EV1 in 1996 in order to meet the strict California regulations that were going to be implemented. It was a revolutionary car. They were miles ahead of everyone else. But they lobbied to have the regulations watered down and collected all the EV1's at the end of their leases and crushed them.
The lesson is that you probably are not going to see any kind of revolutionary game changing new product from GM or any other big car company. They are pretty happy adding usb ports or extra cup holders to their existing line up.
would it be the highest valuation in the global auto market?
Hard to say but if they would have keep developing the EV1 then maybe Musk decides that he doesn't even need to enter the auto market.
who knows their future, but down the road we might see them sell the brand (the car itself) for nice profit and pivot to being a T1 battery/power company serving all markets. then they dont have to worry about making cars at a profit.
Doubtful, because Musk already tried that. Telsa supplied batteries and power trains to Toyota(used in an electric RAV4) and Mercedes and Daimler in the past. Instead of rolling out a full line of Tesla powered cars they all just produced low volume models in just enough numbers to cover their regulatory compliance needs. So Musk decided to just make his own cars and take away as many customers from them as he could.
let someone else try and design/build cars.
Telsa cars appear to be competing quite well in segments they sell into.
no logic supports current valuation, no matter what you think of the EV market.
And yet here we are. The stock price is determined by the price that sellers and buyers agree to pay. It mattes not one whit if you think the current prices are not justified because there are buyers that do.
If you are looking for bargain basement then check out Ford. That stock has dropped from 14 to 6 in the last couple of years. That looks promising!
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this is fun....you really did not understand what I was saying.
expensive golf carts is a commonplace expression/joke about EVs. and i have been in more than one Tesla.
there has been a lot of commentary in Crains Automotive re the valuation of some OEMs had they gone all in EV and just shutdown their ICE production.....overwhelmingly beat writers think the market would have punished them.
SEC and regulatory comment has been in WSJ. just saying it like it is...Musk has been given much more leeway given that Tesla is a public company. not passing judgement, stating a fact.
valuation comment is also widely stated - Barrons, WSJ, Bloomberg, etc. the "normal" logic to valuations does not hold for Tesla, as it didnt for Groupon, Twitter, FB, etc. you state the obvious that the market clears with buyers and sellers agreeing on a price based on expectations. that is not at all what i am saying. valuation experts have studied where the buy side is an almost cult like fascination with the company and frequently the founders - i.e. Zuck and FB. This is exactly how the VC market valuations occur, but rarely do you see that logic enter into the public markets = where there is more oxygen and rationalization. almost all of the firms that fit into this space have owners (cult) who feel the firm will own the market with first mover or winner take all assumptions. these buyers along with technical algos can drive a stock price to very high values that are hard to explain with cold hard facts/numbers. THIS is the area I love to invest on a short basis. this takes some balls and you have to have a way to exit in hours not days. normally the SEC rules which limit what a company can say publicly helps prevent sudden "news" over Twitter driving a spike - short loss.
I have a little system that hunts for shorts, so I have a few that are on my radar. Tesla is not on my list at the moment.
I have a little system that hunts for shorts, so I have a few that are on my radar. Tesla is not on my list at the moment.
At the current price of 1,200 I'm surprised.
No logic supports current valuation
I love to short stocks that are cults
I have a system that hunts for shorts
Tesla is not on my list
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
The logic that supports a $1,200 share price is that Tesla will be making annual profits of $10 billion as it matures in the several years. That's not my prediction. It just represents a market multiple of 24x.
what is the value of the entire automotive market? that is you are selling a lot of vehicles in the $18k-$30k price range, and expect to make around 5% net ROS on those cars. the share on cars over $50k still a small part of the action.
does anyone see the recent moves on Tesla in any way related to the actual bottom line of the business?
as i said, you don't short companies that are having momentum moves. I am focused on others - there are still some good ones.
not sure what you think I said that is opposite. I am not involved with this as a short or long position.
commenting on the valuation is not taking a position on either side. there were multiple analysts talking about this today on both Bloomberg and Fox Bus. I did not hear one say that the Tesla valuation had anything to do with the actual business. Just a lot of discussion about their valuation might put them into the S&P pool - so then ETF's wind up having to buy them to mimic market moves - so you have anticipation buys. also still some short squeeze not over according to guy on Bloomberg. not a person said anything about the business driving the valuation moves. that is exactly what you steer clear of in shorts. market can be very technical and not fundamentals oriented for those stocks.....I do not short when it becomes so technical that it totally drives out fundamentals and you cannot depend on the news on results to drive price. someone in this chain suggested that Tesla could make $10B net/year and that would justify today's valuation. how many vehicles would they need to make at the current profit/car to hit that profit?
I just did very well with an Uber short (cleared $13 per share on a $27 exit). Uber was a stock with a cult following, but has lost some of that - so safe to go back in the water.
My friend and I were laughing about TSLA earlier today when the action was hot. He said, "Screw it, I'm shorting it." He did. It was up around $120.00 at the time. I have a call in to him to see if he covered before the close. I know I would have.
Correction: It was up around $140.00 when he shorted. He covered. Good for him.
Correction: It was up around $140.00 when he shorted. He covered. Good for him.
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Sure chief. Do us a favor, tell us when you put a short on next time instead of just showing up here to tell us about how much money you made after it’s over. You remind me of a lot of bad sports gamblers I know
Good thing Elon is going with the 5:1 split, otherwise you’d be able to trade shares for vehicles in a few years
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...arget-to-4th-highest-on-the-street-2020-08-17
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...arget-to-4th-highest-on-the-street-2020-08-17
that is you are selling a lot of vehicles in the $18k-$30k price range, and expect to make around 5% net ROS on those cars. the share on cars over $50k still a small part of the action.
Those luxury cars are a small part of the action but they generate 50% of the profits.
The great thing about Tesla's stock shooting through the roof is the fact that bdgan is no longer starting threads about shorting it.
Haven’t heard much out of Tumble Lion lately. I guess that’s what happens when your sure thing is no longer so sure. Maybe he should have taken his own advice and invested in Ford. At least he would have made 5% on the dividend.
Actually, I find it still overvalued today at 40:1 P/E ratio. But it is no longer absurdly priced. Time has a way to fix things.
Rumble often talked about how their sales were growing 50%/yr which was correct. The problem is it has to keep growing like that to justify the stock price.
Rumble said "Sales will grow 50% per year for the forseeable future" and that was completely wrong.
They missed the first year.
I guess that was all just “fud” as he liked to say whenever anyone suggested a reasoned analysis.
I don't try to pick big movers. Like an old Barron's ad used to say: "You buy a stock thinking it's going up in value. The problem is you're buying it from somebody who is selling it because it's going down in value".
TSLA has a lot of growth already priced in. Same with NVDIA and almost everything else. To beat the market you have to outguess everybody else including the professional analysts.
Well since the conversation was about the stock price it doesn't matter what Tesla was saying.
The stock was over $600 at that time I believe.
You believed the numbers and stated them as fact. They were at best, aspirational and less than likely.
LdN
I don't own a Tesla. I do have a Bolt though. Wife and and I use it for most of our driving. It's great.
It makes me laugh when people buy a new car and others ask how they like it. Of course they like it, otherwise they wouldn't have bought it.
It would be better if you asked them 7 years later after things have had time to go wrong.
Interesting story on this guy. He was all set to buy a Cadillac Lyric. My other coworker that owns the Model 3 asked him if he had looked at Tesla. The guy replied that he had not because he hates Elon Musk. My friend convinced him to at least test drive a Model Y before he bought the Caddy. He did and now owns a Model Y.
I don't know much about the Lyric but I prefer the looks over the Tesla. Car and Driver gives the Lyric a better overall performance rating but the Model Y has more cargo room. I think you an upgrade to a better sound system with the Lyric. I understand that not as many Lyrics are being manufactured so they're more difficult to get.
Yeah the Caddy is just crushing the Model Y. It's not even a fair fight.
2023 Lyric sales: 9,185
2023 Model Y sales: 1,230,000
Not much reporting for how things are going in 2024 as we have not hit the end of the quarter yet but I found this:
According to Cadillac chief John Roth, Lyriq production and inventory is improving following the expanded availability of the battery packs required to build the crossover.
“Production is continuing to ramp as the availability of [battery] modules have been cleared and right now, we have a great selection of Lyriqs available on the ground and on their way that we certainly can address any concerns we may have,” Roth said during a recent media briefing attended by GM Authority.
As of January 19th, 2024, there are currently 4,232 new Cadillac Lyriqs available nationwide. The vast majority of these are 2024-model-year vehicles, while just 63 of the 4,232 are 2023-model-year vehicles. That 4,232-unit total includes available (landed / grounded) units, as well as units that are current in transit.
General Motors sold 3,820 Lyriq units in the U.S. during the fourth quarter of the 2023 calendar year, with 9,154 deliveries completed during the 2023 calendar year. As such, the current numbers indicate that GM has a 100-day supply for the Cadillac Lyriq, based on the sales volume of the preceding quarter.
For Tesla - they sold more Model Y's in Germany in February than GM has Lyrics available for sale.The Tesla Model Y is continuing its quiet conquest of Europe’s SUV and battery electric vehicle sector. In February 2024 alone, the Model Y secured its place as the best-selling SUV and battery electric vehicle (BEV) in Germany with sales of 5,408 units.
The numbers are what they are.
I wish GM would sell more EVs, I own one myself. But I find their EV strategy to be not well focused.
GM's EVs are shit. Go pick up a one-year-old Lyriq for half the price but make sure it hasn't already been declared a lemon. Fisker, Rivian, Polstar and Tesla all have good products but there will soon be little differentiation. There is really not a lot to an EV and as the research starts to standardize on best practices, it will be a matter of how cheap you can build the car with the resulting range/battery. That means lower production costs. That means robots and factories in third-world countries.
What does that mean? Chinese and Vietnamese (et all) are going to eat our lunch within the next three years. The Chinese have several models that they could be selling in the low $20k which is as good as the Tesla Model Y which goes for $40k today.
This Chinese EV Could Be World’s First Mass-Produced Car With A Solid-State Battery
The IM Motors Zhiji L6 could get 621 miles of range from its 130-kWh solid-state battery when it goes on sale.
insideevs.com
Chinese automakers sold more EVs in January 2024 than the next 19 countries combined, and they’re not just forging ahead with commercialization but also innovation. Reports out of China suggest that mass-produced solid-state batteries are no longer a distant reality, but something that’s close to market launch.
And, BTW, you can get a Hyundai Ioniq 6 for $240 per month lease right now.
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