Tesla - exited short sale

[uhlerlion]

let's not be stupid on the opposite side. Stopping three times on a trip back and forth to State College (and bellefonte is out of they way to state college so factor that in also). And waiting 15-20 minutes per stop (and that assumes the chargers are open which if three stops I doubt is the case so one of those times might be a 30 minute stop) is going to suck. I stop once on the way too/from Penn State from greater Philly and that stop is never more than about 6-8 minutes, enough to gas up and goto the bathroom and grab a soda or some chips. I don't really have that kind of time to waste nor would I want to take that many stops with kids for an EV trip. I think right now EVs are great for your local driving where you are not going long distances and can charge your car in your driveway at night. And then you have your second vehicle be a normal car with gas for long distances.

In a 15-20 years from from now when the mileage on a charge has increased and charging time more approaches the time it takes to fill up a car with gas (5 minutes) and the charging stations are plentiful akin to gas stations, then everybody goes full on EV.

Have you been to Bellfonte supercharger do you even know where it is?? 8 whole minutes right on I-99 from I-99 Atherton exit, even shorter from park ave exit, or from rt 26 exit. Yes not ideal compared sheetz on atherton or any other gas station downtown. But also not out of the way if you bothered to look at a map.

Of all the times I have been there approx 10 not more than 1 tesla sitting there when I go to charge. But lets not let any of the facts get in the way of being stupid on the opposite side.

 

[uhlerlion]

I'm not arguing that having an EV for local driving where I don't have to map out and stop at charging station every few hours for 15-30 minute stops won't be convenient. But if you are a person who drives long trips frequently, that level of stopping and time charging is really inconvenient and you cannot tell me that it isn't. And for my normal driving now, I stop once about every 7-10 days at the gas station on the way to work and I am never there for longer than about 3-5 minutes to fill up so not having to do that isn't going to unlock my life with a ton of time.

Funny - well if your long trips require back country roads then your are spot on. I guess a closed mind wouldn't even think to look at a map of the the existing supercharger stations (and those yet to be built) and their locations in relationship to the Interstate highway system. But hey for giggles lets take the 10000 ft view approach. think you can eyeball rt80? rt 70? rt 76? I 95? 85? 40? 81?

You tell me where they are located and see if that couldn't satisfy anyone's long distance needs? Also funny how you don't equate days in the shop for your ICE for oil changes inspections brakes etc as part of your wait time calculations. Seems to me a day in the shop is 24 hours of wait time not accounted for in your calculations that should be added to your gassup time. wouldn't you say? or dare we say the cost to pay for such items in terms of time and money?

I had a flat tire 2 weeks ago ran over a screw, Tesla mobile service came out and fixed on the spot, no tow needed. Kinda like Safelite autoglass , my flat was at work they fixed by the time I was ready to leave work, cost just price of the new tire. But hey that what you get for buying a premium car

 

[AldenT]

Funny - well if your long trips require back country roads then your are spot on. I guess a closed mind wouldn't even think to look at a map of the the existing supercharger stations (and those yet to be built) and their locations in relationship to the Interstate highway system. But hey for giggles lets take the 10000 ft view approach. think you can eyeball rt80? rt 70? rt 76? I 95? 85? 40? 81?

You tell me where they are located and see if that couldn't satisfy anyone's long distance needs? Also funny how you don't equate days in the shop for your ICE for oil changes inspections brakes etc as part of your wait time calculations. Seems to me a day in the shop is 24 hours of wait time not accounted for in your calculations that should be added to your gassup time. wouldn't you say? or dare we say the cost to pay for such items in terms of time and money?

I had a flat tire 2 weeks ago ran over a screw, Tesla mobile service came out and fixed on the spot, no tow needed. Kinda like Safelite autoglass , my flat was at work they fixed by the time I was ready to leave work, cost just price of the new tire. But hey that what you get for buying a premium car

Yes, but the PLANNING...

 

[MJG-90]

Yes, but the PLANNING...

Longer drives to unfamiliar areas would require more planning. But I think once you got used to it, it probably becomes second nature. Hopefully the range doubles over the next five years. I’m on board with the concept. It just needs to be a little better match for my reality.

 

[KnightSlayer]

My current ICE car has a range of around 425 miles and takes maybe 3 minutes to refuel.
I think EV’s are likely to replace ICE vehicles once the ranges, and especially charging times improve. People who plunked down huge sums of money for EV’s with earlier generation batteries will find resale options very limited unless these carmakers want to spend the capital on retrofitting them with new batteries.

How many miles do you drive per day? The average in the US is around 30 miles.

 

[AldenT]

Longer drives to unfamiliar areas would require more planning. But I think once you got used to it, it probably becomes second nature. Hopefully the range doubles over the next five years. I’m on board with the concept. It just needs to be a little better match for my reality.

I get it. I think even now you’d have your expectations exceeded.

 

[83wuzme]

What do you mean ‘paying a premium’?

If you don’t know what I mean, search some prices then get back to me.

 

[cjrugger]

If you don’t know what I mean, search some prices then get back to me.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/0...-money-tesla-model-3-specs-vs-30-competitors/

 

[BringBackStoneys]

Longer drives to unfamiliar areas would require more planning. But I think once you got used to it, it probably becomes second nature. Hopefully the range doubles over the next five years. I’m on board with the concept. It just needs to be a little better match for my reality.

This is the huge misconception about planning. You literally say your destination to the voice recognition system and it maps the exact supercharger stops and charging time required. It’s butt easy. After one trip, you realize that all of this angst about charging is stupid. And all the awfulness associated with gassing up, oil changes, regularly scheduled maintenance, etc. becomes evident.

 

[MJG-90]

This is the huge misconception about planning. You literally say your destination to the voice recognition system and it maps the exact supercharger stops and charging time required. It’s butt easy. After one trip, you realize that all of this angst about charging is stupid. And all the awfulness associated with gassing up, oil changes, regularly scheduled maintenance, etc. becomes evident.

That’s not what I meant by planning though. If I’m in a familiar area, I know where I can charge so I’m not thinking about it. When traveling outside that area, you need to consider how many charges you might need along the route and plan how much time you need based on that. It’s a different mindset than stopping for 5 minutes to top off the tank.

 

[83wuzme]

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/0...-money-tesla-model-3-specs-vs-30-competitors/

Isn’t the waiting list for one of those something like three years ?
If you look at a car like the Chevy Bolt, which appears to be aimed at the mass market and is probably comparable to something like a Honda Civic or a Toyota Camry, you will pay around 40 - 50% more.
Then you have to consider resale. What is the demand for a current generation EV with a battery that has over 80K miles on it ?

 

[cjrugger]

Isn’t the waiting list for one of those something like three years ?
If you look at a car like the Chevy Bolt, which appears to be aimed at the mass market and is probably comparable to something like a Honda Civic or a Toyota Camry, you will pay around 40 - 50% more.
Then you have to consider resale. What is the demand for a current generation EV with a battery that has over 80K miles on it ?

No, it’s about 2 months. Sorry to sound like a dick but you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about. Perhaps you should do some googling before you make up your mind on a topic

 

[83wuzme]

No, it’s about 2 months. Sorry to sound like a dick but you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about. Perhaps you should do some googling before you make up your mind on a topic

Actually, I recently saw a blog of a guy who covers all sorts of science and technology topics and he reported his wait was closer to three years. This video might have been 12 - 18 months old, though.

 

[AldenT]

Actually, I recently saw a blog of a guy who covers all sorts of science and technology topics and he reported his wait was closer to three years. This video might have been 12 - 18 months old, though.

I waited 5 weeks.

 

[Lion Son/Husband/Father]

One of my customers put a $100 deposit on the truck. Just thought I’d add that.
https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck

 

[blion72]

Tough to get excited when you lose this much.

At the end of the year, short-sellers betting against Tesla lost $2.9 billion on a mark-to-market basis, according to a Friday tweet from Ihor Dusaniwsky, managing director of predictive analytics at S3 Partners, a financial-analytics provider.

The second half of the year was particularly painful for short-sellers as the stock rallied nearly 70% from its 2019 low in June through December. Short-sellers lost nearly $8 billion mark-to-market as shares surged over the seven-month period, according to S3 data.​

as I stated in the OP, I made money on two shorts on this company, but it is very dangerous and you need to exit as the company moves on momentum around news/tweets, etc. I actually made a little on a long position in November. i took a long position because i say hype movement, not because i think the company is a long term success. check the current P/E or P/free cash flow.....non existent. Tesla has been given a free pass on poor financial performance. company even today has not figured out how to make cars reliably and profitably. the debate is not about whether EV, hybrid EV, ICE or some other mechanism will be the end game. the market for EVs could wind up being a glorious success, and Tesla a failure as a firm. the pessimists mostly think Tesla will either become a battery company or be acquired by someone who knows how to build cars at a profit.

 

[cjrugger]

as I stated in the OP, I made money on two shorts on this company, but it is very dangerous and you need to exit as the company moves on momentum around news/tweets, etc. I actually made a little on a long position in November. i took a long position because i say hype movement, not because i think the company is a long term success. check the current P/E or P/free cash flow.....non existent. Tesla has been given a free pass on poor financial performance. company even today has not figured out how to make cars reliably and profitably. the debate is not about whether EV, hybrid EV, ICE or some other mechanism will be the end game. the market for EVs could wind up being a glorious success, and Tesla a failure as a firm. the pessimists mostly think Tesla will either become a battery company or be acquired by someone who knows how to build cars at a profit.

L
O
L

What a lovely fairytale of bullshit! Really good stuff

 

[PSU_Chicago]

these Tesla pro or con posts are interesting. The con people need to experience the car to fully understand what it is like to own one. I had misgivings but after owning one for 2 years I am fully bought in.

Daily from the home driving is easy. Plug in at home. We use a 220 volt dryer plug in our garage. On longer Trips we use the supercharger network. 20 - 25 minutes for 170 to 180 miles of range. After years of grinding on trips, I now enjoy the forced 20 minute break on a trip.

Vehicle service is minimal. Tires and window washer fluid is all I have had to do. The car handles extremely well. Very fast. Fun to drive.

 

[Cletus11]

i will say this, if i lived in a house that solar made sense (my house unfortunately in woods and faces wrong direction and gets minimal direct sunlight accept for late afternoon) I would have an EV car with solar on the roof and a battery pack in the garage that would be 'fueling' my car for free.

 

[rumble_lion]

these Tesla pro or con posts are interesting. The con people need to experience the car to fully understand what it is like to own one. I had misgivings but after owning one for 2 years I am fully bought in.

Daily from the home driving is easy. Plug in at home. We use a 220 volt dryer plug in our garage. On longer Trips we use the supercharger network. 20 - 25 minutes for 170 to 180 miles of range. After years of grinding on trips, I now enjoy the forced 20 minute break on a trip.

Vehicle service is minimal. Tires and window washer fluid is all I have had to do. The car handles extremely well. Very fast. Fun to drive.

Oil companies stand to lose roughly 70% of their business if the transportation sector switches over to EVs. Tesla is an existential threat to them. Most of the cons posting on here on just useful idiots repeating fossil fuel propaganda.

 

[rumble_lion]

Isn’t the waiting list for one of those something like three years ?
If you look at a car like the Chevy Bolt, which appears to be aimed at the mass market and is probably comparable to something like a Honda Civic or a Toyota Camry, you will pay around 40 - 50% more.
Then you have to consider resale. What is the demand for a current generation EV with a battery that has over 80K miles on it ?

Isn’t the waiting list for one of those something like three years ?

Nope.

If you look at a car like the Chevy Bolt, which appears to be aimed at the mass market and is probably comparable to something like a Honda Civic or a Toyota Camry, you will pay around 40 - 50% more

The good news is that is you want a Chevy Bolt you won't have to wait at all. The bad news is that you will need to find a Chevy dealer that is even interested in selling one.

There is no shortage of Bolts unless Chevy has cut down production. Since you can pick up a Tesla Model 3 for around the same price as the Bolt I don't really see any big sales surge for them. I imagine sales will dwindle down to just those that can get the massive employee discounts just like what happened with the Cadillac ELR years ago.

But US sales of every other EV stagnated or declined in 2019. New purchases of the Chevrolet Bolt, the nation’s second most popular electric vehicle, slid to 16,418 in 2019, a drop of 8.8% compared to last year. The 2019 figures represent a 29.5% decrease from two years ago. This winner-take-all paradigm, if it continues, spells trouble for GM, Volkswagen, Ford, and every other automaker trying to sell EVs.​

 

[uhlerlion]

That’s not what I meant by planning though. If I’m in a familiar area, I know where I can charge so I’m not thinking about it. When traveling outside that area, you need to consider how many charges you might need along the route and plan how much time you need based on that. It’s a different mindset than stopping for 5 minutes to top off the tank.

You are correct--- but it really isnt as bad as some have indicated, yes to lessen your Range Anxiety planning is helpful but the system does it for you when your on the road

 

[MJG-90]

You are correct--- but it really isnt as bad as some have indicated, yes to lessen your Range Anxiety planning is helpful but the system does it for you when your on the road

My point was more about timing. Do I need an extra hour? Or can I get away with 15 minutes if I stop at point Y? So how much extra time do I need to add to my trip?

If I know I need gas, I do the same thing. But 5-10 minutes to get gas is nothing.

I’m sure you just get used to it with an EV as well. But would require and adjustment period for sure.

 

[BringBackStoneys]

My point was more about timing. Do I need an extra hour? Or can I get away with 15 minutes if I stop at point Y? So how much extra time do I need to add to my trip?

If I know I need gas, I do the same thing. But 5-10 minutes to get gas is nothing.

I’m sure you just get used to it with an EV as well. But would require and adjustment period for sure.

It is exactly like using Google Maps or Waze or any other tool for trip planning except it tells you where to stop to charge and for how long - to the minute. After you do spend a week with it, you will understand how overblown the concerns about charging are.

 

[Pinkhippo PeanutButter]

Looks like the 4th quarter numbers are largely customers rushing to get the final subsidies along with some EoY shenanigans to bring those sales to fruition in Q4 vs Q1.

Now as states begin to tax EVs directly to cover road costs, we get to see how Tesla competes on a more level playing field.

To date, even with all the subsidies, breaks, and advantages Tesla sales remain essentially a rounding error compared to the rest of the industry. And still not profitable.

 

[uhlerlion]

Looks like the 4th quarter numbers are largely customers rushing to get the final subsidies along with some EoY shenanigans to bring those sales to fruition in Q4 vs Q1.

Now as states begin to tax EVs directly to cover road costs, we get to see how Tesla competes on a more level playing field.

To date, even with all the subsidies, breaks, and advantages Tesla sales remain essentially a rounding error compared to the rest of the industry. And still not profitable.

provide the balance sheet if your going to make that statement

 

[uhlerlion]

these Tesla pro or con posts are interesting. The con people need to experience the car to fully understand what it is like to own one. I had misgivings but after owning one for 2 years I am fully bought in.

Daily from the home driving is easy. Plug in at home. We use a 220 volt dryer plug in our garage. On longer Trips we use the supercharger network. 20 - 25 minutes for 170 to 180 miles of range. After years of grinding on trips, I now enjoy the forced 20 minute break on a trip.

Vehicle service is minimal. Tires and window washer fluid is all I have had to do. The car handles extremely well. Very fast. Fun to drive.

 

[Lion78]

My point was more about timing. Do I need an extra hour? Or can I get away with 15 minutes if I stop at point Y? So how much extra time do I need to add to my trip?

If I know I need gas, I do the same thing. But 5-10 minutes to get gas is nothing.

I’m sure you just get used to it with an EV as well. But would require and adjustment period for sure.

1st trip is all the adjustment period you will need. Been there with the same concerns.

Yes, there will be trips where you need to go out of your way to charge. Remember, we are at step 5 out of 50 on the road to making an ICE a niche product. A majority of consumers can fully utilize an electric vehicle for 95% of their intended use, today. Both percentages will only increase with advances in battery technology and charging infrastructure.

What's stopping them? Fear is a big deterrent, both of change and being stranded. Quality and availability of vehicle choice is another. Both are being used by the forces that don't want change.

 

[Pinkhippo PeanutButter]

A majority of consumers can fully utilize an electric vehicle for 95% of their intended use, today.

If the hypothesis is that a majority of consumers are capable of remembering to plug in their car each and every time they come home, or at least overnight, I'd like to see evidence tht the average American consumer is so diligent and responsible. (Not current Tesla owners, the "typical consumer").

 

[PSU_Chicago]

If the hypothesis is that a majority of consumers are capable of remembering to plug in their car each and every time they come home, or at least overnight, I'd like to see evidence tht the average American consumer is so diligent and responsible. (Not current Tesla owners, the "typical consumer").

With that in mind, I am shocked most even realize they have to go to the gas station.

 

[uhlerlion]

With that in mind, I am shocked most even realize they have to go to the gas station.

Right I have to think the typical gas consumer at least runs out of gas once a week and is stranded because they forget to fill up.

 

[83wuzme]

I saw a recent video touting research at PSU into the problem of fast charging that appears to have yielded the solution. The PSU researchers came up with a process known as “ Asymmetric Temperature Modulation “ to offset with the undesirable Lithium plating on the graphite anode that causes battery degradation.
Using this process, the EV batteries could obtain the charge for 200 miles of range in under 9 minutes. The expected time to implementation was said to be under 5 years.

 

[Pinkhippo PeanutButter]

I saw a recent video touting research at PSU into the problem of fast charging that appears to have yielded the solution. The PSU researchers came up with a process known as “ Asymmetric Temperature Modulation “ to offset with the undesirable Lithium plating on the graphite anode that causes battery degradation.
Using this process, the EV batteries could obtain the charge for 200 miles of range in under 9 minutes. The expected time to implementation was said to be under 5 years.

That may be a problem with a solution, but far from the only one. Most have no solution and some never will.

 

[83wuzme]

That may be a problem with a solution, but far from the only one. Most have no solution and some never will.

The person reporting on the research said that the battery could withstand enough charges for 500K miles using this type of charging, which would put it ahead of any current ICE engine life. This also represents a major improvement over current EV battery performance. They reported the implementation timeline as about 4 - 5 years.
I have little doubt that battery technology is going to improve to the point that any practical disadvantages of EV’s versus ICE vehicles will diminish to insignificant. EV technology hasn’t come close to it’s ceiling, while ICE tech has pretty much been taken about as far as it can.
BTW, I am not an EV fanboy. I don’t own one. If I buy another car, it will likely be an EV.

 

[MJG-90]

With that in mind, I am shocked most even realize they have to go to the gas station.

How do people remember to set their alarm clocks, take a shower before work, remember to eat? Pay bills, take out the trash....? Things become habit.

 

[Pinkhippo PeanutButter]

How do people remember to set their alarm clocks, take a shower before work, remember to eat? Pay bills, take out the trash....? Things become habit.

Do the majority do that? Is there any evidence that the majority of consumers pay their bills on time every time over a year?

Without evidence, it's just you taking about yourself with a sample size of one

 

[AldenT]

Do the majority do that? Is there any evidence that the majority of consumers pay their bills on time every time over a year?

Without evidence, it's just you taking about yourself with a sample size of one

The car is amazing, the company is crushing it, and all the big boys are adopting this technology. It’s happening; the future is now. Maybe just accept it.

 

[MJG-90]

Do the majority do that? Is there any evidence that the majority of consumers pay their bills on time every time over a year?

Without evidence, it's just you taking about yourself with a sample size of one

All my coworkers show up on time, none of them stink and the first pot of coffee is always ready when I arrive. Stop acting like an idiot. It doesn’t take much training to pull into the garage and remember to turn off the ignition. I’m sure remembering to plug in the car won’t take much more. But I’m sure you’ll never be convinced because that would end your argument. And you only come here to argue.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Oil companies stand to lose roughly 70% of their business if the transportation sector switches over to EVs. Tesla is an existential threat to them. Most of the cons posting on here on just useful idiots repeating fossil fuel propaganda.

Don’t have a Tesla though do have a hybrid, but reminds me of the anti-renewables crowd on the Test board. bUt ThE bIrDz?! Like they give a shit about the environment all of a sudden

 

[Chickenman Testa]

Do the majority do that? Is there any evidence that the majority of consumers pay their bills on time every time over a year?

Without evidence, it's just you taking about yourself with a sample size of one

How do people remember to charge their phones every night? The horror! So much to member

I’ll await your next convoluted post