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Tesla - exited short sale

My husband likes cars, and he has two Teslas — the first one that came out (S I think) and the bigger one with the winged doors. He put the chargers in all of our garages so they can charge at home. He says they are really safe, so I’m thinking that we should get one for our 16 year old as I want the absolute safest car possible for her since young people get in accidents a lot. This thread worries me though. If Tesla goes bankrupt would that be a problem for people who own their cars? She currently drives an Acura MDX — is that ok safetywise?
 
BuckI4life said:
My husband likes cars, and he has two Teslas — the first one that came out (S I think) and the bigger one with the winged doors. He put the chargers in all of our garages so they can charge at home. He says they are really safe, so I’m thinking that we should get one for our 16 year old as I want the absolute safest car possible for her since young people get in accidents a lot. This thread worries me though. If Tesla goes bankrupt would that be a problem for people who own their cars? She currently drives an Acura MDX — is that ok safetywise?
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Tesla and Ford are the only US auto manufacturers yet to experience a bankruptcy. It’s a tough industry. With Tesla having sold 600,000 total cars now and having 1M in sight next year, I think they are as well positioned as any other car company; perhaps better given global emissions regulations coming into effect.

The Acura is plenty safe but not comparable to a Tesla because of the rigid floor and crumple zones uniquely enabled my an EV.
 
BringBackStoneys said:
Tesla and Ford are the only US auto manufacturers yet to experience a bankruptcy. It’s a tough industry. With Tesla having sold 600,000 total cars now and having 1M in sight next year, I think they are as well positioned as any other car company; perhaps better given global emissions regulations coming into effect.

The Acura is plenty safe but not comparable to a Tesla because of the rigid floor and crumple zones uniquely enabled my an EV.
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I think they are as well positioned as any other car company; perhaps better given global emissions regulations coming into effect.

They are in the best position as they don't need any credit offsets for emissions since their cars don't produce any. So they sell 100% of their emission credits to old school car producers. And the income derived has zero incremental cost to Tesla. They just signed a big deal with Fiat Chrysler for Europe.

The Financial Times noted that Fiat Chrysler will pay Tesla $1.8 billion euros ($2 billion U.S.) to pool the two companies' emissions credits in Europe through 2022.

The European Union has set a target to reduce emissions across the Continent by 25 percent by 2022. The reductions would require increases in fuel economy from 45 mpg to 57 mpg on official tests by 2022.​
 
rumble_lion said:
Here is a video showing the charge profile of a model 3 on a Tesla supercharger. 162 miles of range added in 20 minutes, 218 miles added in 30 minutes. Please stop spreading fud about how a model 3 has to stop and charge for 2 hours during a long trip. I know, I know you really love Tesla's cars, you just can't help spreading untrue damaging information about them.

View embedded media
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Here is another video showing the unbelievably long line waiting for a turn at a supercharger. It took these people way more than 2 hours to get their car charged.

 
NittPicker said:
The comma in the bold words above doesn't belong there. It makes the sentence too choppy. The conjunction is sufficient without the punctuation.

(It's a real ego boost to go all pedantic.)
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Where do you take your Tesla after it catches fire?
 
Pinkhippo PeanutButter said:
Here is another video showing the unbelievably long line waiting for a turn at a supercharger. It took these people way more than 2 hours to get their car charged.

View embedded media
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Are you really trying to justify your BS claim that it takes 2 hours to charge a Tesla by posting a video that shows that peak demand during holiday travel in SoCal creates lines?

The rationing of gas during the oil crisis of the 70s created massive lines across the country. And there are usually long lines at gas pumps when hurricane evacuations occur. So what was your point again?
 
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BringBackStoneys said:
Are you really trying to justify your BS claim that it takes 2 hours to charge a Tesla by posting a video that shows that peak demand during holiday travel in SoCal creates lines?

The rationing of gas during the oil crisis of the 70s created massive lines across the country. And there are usually long lines at gas pumps when hurricane evacuations occur. So what was your point again?
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Are you really trying to equate holiday travel to a hurricane evacuation?
 
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BringBackStoneys said:
Are you really trying to justify your BS claim that it takes 2 hours to charge a Tesla by posting a video that shows that peak demand during holiday travel in SoCal creates lines?

The rationing of gas during the oil crisis of the 70s created massive lines across the country. And there are usually long lines at gas pumps when hurricane evacuations occur. So what was your point again?
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He loves moving the goalposts around. He also loves to say there is no demand for the cars
 
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rumble_lion said:
Jack Ricard has been building electric cars for long time, before Tesla even shipped the roadster. He has torn apart and reverse engineered many of the electric cars on the market.

Here is his take on Tesla:

http://evtv.me/2019/08/the-tesla-conspiracy-or-am-i-a-dead-whistleblower/

Here is just part of his post:

It is also arguably the SAFEST car ever built. There is actually a current imbroglio over this between Tesla and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. They test cars for safety in a number of categories and indeed assign a point score in each category. That then is translated to a “star” rating with 1 star being very minimal and 5 stars being the maximum that can be awarded. Not only did Tesla achieve a five star rating in ALL categories tested, but the point score was the highest ever achieved at NHTSA by any car.

Tesla proudly announced this fact to anyone who would listen. And NHTSA takes strong exception to this. Note that they don’t actually deny any of Tesla’s claims, but they are incensed that Tesla would divulge point scores or make any statements beyond the official number of stars awarded. This is some sort of governmental attempt to limit what you can SAY about a publicly funded and governmentally administered test.

So my claim is that Tesla makes the BEST automotive vehicle on the planet, barring none, in all respects, including SAFETY. It is just the best car ever built. And I would challenge anyone to demonstrate even partially that this is not so.

Let’s take a look at Tesla’s car production figures. They just finished their LARGEST production quarter with some 87048 vehicles produced. They DELIVERED over 95,000 vehicles in the quarter, also a record, but that is because 8000ish vehicles produced in the first quarter were not delivered until the second.

Let’s take a look at a couple of things. Q2 2015, two years AFTER the Model S became WIDELY available, they produced 12807 vehicles. That’s 679% growth in four years or 170% per year.

Part of the “short thesis” is that Tesla cannot produce enough cars to meet demand. And a second part of the short thesis is that there won’t be demand for the cars they produce. What am I supposed to do with this? Two mutually exclusive and totally unlikely factoids issuing from the same potato disposer simultaneously.

Again, Tesla doesn’t advertise for a very cunning reason. It doesn’t work at all. The public trust in commercial messaging has now broached zero and has gone into negative numbers. Mike’s Pillow really was NOT the best night’s sleep I ever had. And basically 100% of the public discounts ALL of 100% of the commercial messaging it sees.

But we do still largely trust our friends and associates. And so if you see a Tesla, better get to ride in a friends Tesla, better yet he lets you DRIVE their Tesla, you want one. Period. I’ve never HEARD of anyone riding in a Tesla who did not immediately conclude that they wanted the car.

Could they afford the car? Did they need a car? Did they already have a car? All open and valid questions. But they did WANT THAT ONE on contact.

Now there are any number of reasons why people buy the cars they buy. But few actually take aim at being the personal owner of the SECOND best car in the world. It’s like going on ALLRECIPES.COM and searching out the SECOND BEST lasagna recipe. For what???

You might well make the fifth most popular lasagna recipe, because you are vegan and don’t want any meat in your lasagna. But you KNOW you aren’t getting the best.

I have a couple of viewers who have advised me in the last week they were picking up a Model X and Model 3 respectively. They’ve known about Tesla for years. They have wanted a Tesla for years. They are both buying one this week.

So my claim from observation and intimate knowledge, is that Tesla can sell all they can make and they can do so at essentially any price they want. It is a growing demand and totally inelastic and agnostic. It grows by contact. The more they make and deliver, the more people have contact with the cars and the more demand is generated for all that they make.

How far does this extend? How LONG can you sustain 170% compounded growth?

You know, that SHOULD be the defining question. And I’m unusually pleased to note that it is not because it is one of those astonishing things that just tickle my sense of whimsey when I come across them.

EVTV has largely ceased to convert ICE cars to electric drive, which was long our only reason for life. It started in 2009 and while the Tesla Roadster was much discussed, not a single one had ever been actually delivered. If you wanted an electric car in the spring of 2009, you had to build one. There were ZERO models offered by the sum total of all automotive manufacturers worldwide. We defined, aided, abetted, and enabled the tinkerer/innovator stage of the adoption curve and noted numerous times that on achieving “early adopter” phase we were out of it.

I lied. The outcome was SO assured that by 2017 my mind, with the laser like focus and attention span of a four-year-old, just wandered away. This no longer requires my efforts. The outcome is assured.

And Tesla was largely the reason. Basically it costs between $20-40,000 to do a good build converting an ICE car to electric drive.
Tilt and tittle at that all you want, I did a lot of them and a lot of different ways and several were over $100k. Not really unusual among custom car enthusiasts and I expect those guys will be doing electric conversion show cars 50 years from now.

The Model 3 at $40k is a better car than I can do at $40k.

Worse, it is kind of a one sided launch. We covered the news of LOTS of different electric cars, and most notably HUNDREDS of VW press releases that never were actually cars. And the conclusion was that it just doesn’t matter. Porsche and BMW were the only ones that had the right stuff to compete with TEsla and they didn’t. All else didn’t matter and couldn’t matter. And yes, Porsche’s Taycan will launch this September 4th and they are going to sell 30,000 or 40,000 of them and THEY STILL WON’T MATTER.

Tesla just owns it. And at this point, the moats of its battery technology and costing, its Supercharger network, it’s online sales model, the Over the Air Software Updates, and much much more put it SO far out ahead, that the other manufacturers are still announcing the “coming Tesla killer” aimed at the 2013 Tesla Model S. Problem: It is 2019.

And so we basically got out of converting EV’s BEFORE we got to the early adopter stage. I lied. Because the outcome is not just assured, it is unstoppable.

But if all else fails, the commonly held marker for the BEGINNING of Everett Rogets adoption curve early adopter stage is 2.5% market penetration.

So where are we at? The current global market for automobiles is a little squishy on your definition of an automobile, but as a personal transportation device is currently widely regarded as 78 million units annually with about 15 million in the U.S.

The short thesis is that Tesla CANNOT POSSIBLY meet their projections of 360,000 units this year. Duh. That’s 0.0046 or 0.46%.
ALL electric cars from EVERYBODY all told don’t reach 1% of the market for cars. We aren’t even CLOSE to the “early adopter” stage.

I’m at the point where if you don’t have Tesla logo on your car you’re not electric and don’t matter. To the point that we are working furiously on things like an OBDII port adapter for the Model 3, or reverse engineering Tesla batteries, not EV batteries, TESLA batteries for solar energy storage. I have a half finished Cadillac Escalade conversion hanging in the air on a lift where it has hung for a year.

But the blue sky for Tesla is essentially UNLIMITED. They can sell all they make and make all they sell starting at 360,000 units and topping out at 78 million. They are 0.46% of a $2.3 TRILLION dollar market. And they appear to my biased eye to already own ALL of it.
It reminds me of Sandra Bullock and Sylvester Stallone, in the movie DEMOLITION MAN. In the future, ALL restaurants had consolidated under the brand name TACO BELL. If SOMEBODY doesn’t do SOMETHING pretty quickly, in the future ALL automobiles will be Tesla’s.

Hyperbole? I grow weak in the knees publicly repeating a prediction I have quietly been making for years. It is so unbelievable all I can harvest from it now is ridicule. But you are not going to BELIEVE the big names and huge corporations that face unavoidable and absolute bankruptcy and dismemberment, in the VERY NEAR future. No government can save them. Hundreds of thousands if not millions of jobs lost. Economic disruption and dislocation of unparalleled proportions. Office furniture available for 6 cents on the dollar. Not reorganization. But like Eastman Kodak. Sears. K-Mart. Companies that could not fail and are already gone. Picture GM, VW, Daimler. The biggest. The best.
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sooooo, should I refinance the house or not?
 
m.knox said:
LOL... "they turned a profit in a quarter".....
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Many people are scared of or just don’t like change. Some have vested financial interests in keeping the status quo as well. I bet they sound very similar to the horse and carriage drivers of the early 1900s
 
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cjrugger said:
Many people are scared of or just don’t like change. Some have vested financial interests in keeping the status quo as well. I bet they sound very similar to the horse and carriage drivers of the early 1900s
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If you have been paying attention to what is going on with battery technology, you will know that some pretty significant advancements are likely soon. So the EV you buy today could be totally outclassed within five years by newer versions that charge in far less time, have much longer range and cost less. This is a problem with technologies that aren’t mature for consumers and producers
 
83wuzme said:
If you have been paying attention to what is going on with battery technology, you will know that some pretty significant advancements are likely soon. So the EV you buy today could be totally outclassed within five years by newer versions that charge in far less time, have much longer range and cost less. This is a problem with technologies that aren’t mature for consumers and producers
Click to expand...

The battery obsolescence risk you describe is real but has not proven to be a meaningful deterrent for truly disruptive tech. It would be like saying “I’m going to buy another Blackberry because the touch screen resolution, OS, memory, App Store integration and camera on the iPhone 2 will be better than on the iPhone 1”.
 
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83wuzme said:
If you have been paying attention to what is going on with battery technology, you will know that some pretty significant advancements are likely soon. So the EV you buy today could be totally outclassed within five years by newer versions that charge in far less time, have much longer range and cost less. This is a problem with technologies that aren’t mature for consumers and producers
Click to expand...

Guess I'll have to just live with never going to a gas station, spending a half hour stopping on trips instead of 10 minutes, all while driving a great car that will blow the doors off of whatever your puttering around in. Oh, the misery that is my life!!!! Then, in five years I'll trade it in, or hand it down and get the newer technology.
 
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83wuzme said:
If you have been paying attention to what is going on with battery technology, you will know that some pretty significant advancements are likely soon. So the EV you buy today could be totally outclassed within five years by newer versions that charge in far less time, have much longer range and cost less. This is a problem with technologies that aren’t mature for consumers and producers
Click to expand...

You can always lease.
 
83wuzme said:
If you have been paying attention to what is going on with battery technology, you will know that some pretty significant advancements are likely soon. So the EV you buy today could be totally outclassed within five years by newer versions that charge in far less time, have much longer range and cost less. This is a problem with technologies that aren’t mature for consumers and producers
Click to expand...

So what’s your solution? Buy a new ICE car that is currently outclassed because you’re worried that the current EV offering may be outclassed in 5 years? That doesn’t seem very logical

Developing technologies is a ‘problem’ we have managed to navigate in the cell phone, TV, and computer industries for the last 20 years. I think we’ll be ok
 
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GreggK said:
There are also a lot of people who just don’t want electrical vehicles to exist. When TJ was here, he was one of those guys. He was just opposed to their very existence.
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Over the holidays, my family got into a small discussion oh hybrids and EVs. I hadn't heard, but my dad mentioned that several states are increasing the annual registration fee for EVs by hundreds of dollars to make up for lost highway (fuel) taxes. Anyone hear about this?
 
MJG-90 said:
Over the holidays, my family got into a small discussion oh hybrids and EVs. I hadn't heard, but my dad mentioned that several states are increasing the annual registration fee for EVs by hundreds of dollars to make up for lost highway (fuel) taxes. Anyone hear about this?
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True and makes sense if they are going to try to continue to get revenue for road construction/maintenance from gas taxes. As less gas vehicles are on the road, the costs to maintain don't go down, but the revenue will. Without getting into a debate about the rationale for a gas tax, the revenue is necessary.
 
BringBackStoneys said:
The battery obsolescence risk you describe is real but has not proven to be a meaningful deterrent for truly disruptive tech. It would be like saying “I’m going to buy another Blackberry because the touch screen resolution, OS, memory, App Store integration and camera on the iPhone 2 will be better than on the iPhone 1”.
Click to expand...
Honda is claiming they will have an EV in 2022 that will charge in fifteen minutes.
If that is even close to being the case, who is going to want to buy or continue to deal with an EV that requires several hours ?
The question should be asked, though, as to why an EV is better than an ICE vehicle in practical terms for the owner ?
 
BringBackStoneys said:
There is no reason to believe that any of the legacy car makers have optimized designs in their back pockets. Porsche had pumped the Taycan’s “300+ mile range” for years, then delivered a car with 220-280 mile range - the same specs as a 2012 Tesla Model S.

The Model 3 tear down videos that came out last year were really revealing. Sandy Munro from Detroit called the motors ‘military-grade tech’ and ‘magic’.

Tearing down the Audi E-Tron, they used off-the-shelf 3rd party motors and it’s floundering. VW follows that up with the Taycan with the same mediocre performance profile. There is no indication that they have ‘magic’ up their sleeve for electric drive trains.
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This "Tesla killer" is appearing to have some issues:

According to a report by Germany’s Manager Magazin, Volkswagen is experiencing “massive difficulties” with the software for its ID.3 electric sedans. Apparently, the first 10,000 cars built do not have over-the-air update capability — a critical component of any modern electric vehicle and something pioneered by Tesla as far back as 2012. No automaker has genuinely followed Tesla’s lead on this so far, but there’s a lot of chatter they will with coming EVs, like the ID lineup.

To make matters worse, the next batch of 10,000 cars will also lack over-the-air update capability. All of the cars are being stored in parking lots rented by the company until such time as Volkswagen computer experts can get to them and update their software architecture, probably sometime around May of next year. The first cars are not scheduled to be delivered to customers until the summer of 2020.

Volkswagen has placed special emphasis on the software capabilities of its electric cars. It says it wants to develop its own operating system and sell the technology to other manufacturers. But OTA capability is a critical component of any such operating system and so far Volkswagen is behind the 8 ball with its current software package.​
 
83wuzme said:
Honda is claiming they will have an EV in 2022 that will charge in fifteen minutes.
If that is even close to being the case, who is going to want to buy or continue to deal with an EV that requires several hours ?
The question should be asked, though, as to why an EV is better than an ICE vehicle in practical terms for the owner ?
Click to expand...

Honda is claiming they will have an EV in 2022 that will charge in fifteen minutes.
If that is even close to being the case, who is going to want to buy or continue to deal with an EV that requires several hours ?

Because you can't drive a press release?

The question should be asked, though, as to why an EV is better than an ICE vehicle in practical terms for the owner ?

They are super quiet and vibration free so trips are much more comfortable.

All torque is available at zero rpm.

Fuel costs are much lower.

Maintenance costs are much lower.

No trips to the gas station, you start out every day with a "full tank".

You can have the car "start" and precondition the interior while enclosed in a garage.

Fuel costs are predictable. What will gas prices be next week? Next year? What will they be tomorrow if someone starts a war in the mid east today? Where I live you can easily sign up for multi year contracts for electricity.
 
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83wuzme said:
Honda is claiming they will have an EV in 2022 that will charge in fifteen minutes.
If that is even close to being the case, who is going to want to buy or continue to deal with an EV that requires several hours ? Stop the BULLSH|T of several hours unless you also include, while you are sleeping overnight. It's just not true and gets repeated through ignorance or an attempt at deception.
The question should be asked, though, as to why an EV is better than an ICE vehicle in practical terms for the owner ?
1. Much lower maintenance costs
2. Much lower cost of fuel
3. Smoother ride than any ICE
4. Instant acceleration
5. NEVER going to a gas station again
6. Continuous improvement in the vehicle through software updates (Yes, ICEs could do this but are too stuck in their ways to do so).
Click to expand...
 
cjrugger said:
Many people are scared of or just don’t like change. Some have vested financial interests in keeping the status quo as well. I bet they sound very similar to the horse and carriage drivers of the early 1900s
Click to expand...

Or the Luddites.
 
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