Tesla - exited short sale

[rumble_lion]

1 year but it won't come to that. More dilutive equity.

Tesla's free cash flow for the last 6 quarters:

June 30, 2019 590.40M
March 31, 2019 -944.80M
Dec. 31, 2018 880.66M
Sept. 30, 2018 831.52M
June 30, 2018 -806.88M
March 31, 2018 -1.127B

In the last 6 quarters they have burned through 576 million dollars in cash. You think they will burn through 5 billion in cash over the next 4 quarters? Do you have any logical reason why this would happen?

 

[rumble_lion]

Then why does he care about profits? Why would he say "We will never achieve our mission unless we eventually demonstrate that we can be sustainably profitable."?

Here is another quote from Elon that I find far more interesting:

"Pace of innovation is all that matters in the long run."

 

[bdgan]

Tesla's free cash flow for the last 6 quarters:

June 30, 2019 590.40M
March 31, 2019 -944.80M
Dec. 31, 2018 880.66M
Sept. 30, 2018 831.52M
June 30, 2018 -806.88M
March 31, 2018 -1.127B

In the last 6 quarters they have burned through 576 million dollars in cash. You think they will burn through 5 billion in cash over the next 4 quarters? Do you have any logical reason why this would happen?

Read the cash flow statements more carefully. Here are some of the details from the the most recent quarter:

(389) Net Income

578 Depreciation
(273) Capital Expenditures (capex < depreciation is not "investment")
73 Asset sales

1,040 New Stock Sale (new capital infusion is dilutive)

593 Exchange rate adjustments (You're counting on this to be repeated?)


If you look back to the earlier quarters you'll see that Tesla's cash flow was enhanced by pushing out payiments to suppliers (increase in A/P). They'll only be able to push so far.

I'm not trying to attack Tesla. The cars seem great although I still prefer hybrids because they get great mileage and you don't have to wait long periods to recharge. If I was just commuting they would be great. I don't expect Tesla to go away but they haven't proved that they can manufacture and sell $30k cars profitably (even with subsidies and regulatory advantages like EV credits). We'll see where it goes but they aren't working from a position of financial strength.

 

[BringBackStoneys]

Read the cash flow statements more carefully. Here are some of the details from the the most recent quarter:

(389) Net Income

578 Depreciation
(273) Capital Expenditures (capex < depreciation is not "investment")
73 Asset sales

1,040 New Stock Sale (new capital infusion is dilutive)

593 Exchange rate adjustments (You're counting on this to be repeated?)


If you look back to the earlier quarters you'll see that Tesla's cash flow was enhanced by pushing out payiments to suppliers (increase in A/P). They'll only be able to push so far.

I'm not trying to attack Tesla. The cars seem great although I still prefer hybrids because they get great mileage and you don't have to wait long periods to recharge. If I was just commuting they would be great. I don't expect Tesla to go away but they haven't proved that they can manufacture and sell $30k cars profitably (even with subsidies and regulatory advantages like EV credits). We'll see where it goes but they aren't working from a position of financial strength.

We get where you are coming from - if you do a scan of all types of investment opportunities or compare Tesla’s financials to other automakers, then it doesn’t objectively look like a good investment opportunity to you. Understood.

The counterpoint being raised by Tesla cultists like myself is that you are sitting in 2007 asking “Are Apple’s iPhone margins as good as Nokia?” If things shake out the way we anticipate, the answer truly is “who cares?”

 

[bdgan]

We get where you are coming from - if you do a scan of all types of investment opportunities or compare Tesla’s financials to other automakers, then it doesn’t objectively look like a good investment opportunity to you. Understood.

The counterpoint being raised by Tesla cultists like myself is that you are sitting in 2007 asking “Are Apple’s iPhone margins as good as Nokia?” If things shake out the way we anticipate, the answer truly is “who cares?”

I'm not just talking about Tesla as an investment. I'm talking about Tesla's ability to profitably manufacture and sell a car for $30k. They haven't been able to do that so far and they won't be able to sustain themselves if they don't figure it out soon. I'm not discounting what they've done. I'm just uncertain about their ability to get over the hump. Established auto makers have a lot more experience developed over many decades. They are also in a much better financial situation.

 

[rumble_lion]

Read the cash flow statements more carefully. Here are some of the details from the the most recent quarter:

(389) Net Income

578 Depreciation
(273) Capital Expenditures (capex < depreciation is not "investment")
73 Asset sales

1,040 New Stock Sale (new capital infusion is dilutive)

593 Exchange rate adjustments (You're counting on this to be repeated?)


If you look back to the earlier quarters you'll see that Tesla's cash flow was enhanced by pushing out payiments to suppliers (increase in A/P). They'll only be able to push so far.

I'm not trying to attack Tesla. The cars seem great although I still prefer hybrids because they get great mileage and you don't have to wait long periods to recharge. If I was just commuting they would be great. I don't expect Tesla to go away but they haven't proved that they can manufacture and sell $30k cars profitably (even with subsidies and regulatory advantages like EV credits). We'll see where it goes but they aren't working from a position of financial strength.

If you look back to the earlier quarters you'll see that Tesla's cash flow was enhanced by pushing out payiments to suppliers (increase in A/P). They'll only be able to push so far.

What about battery costs? You know that little thing in an EV that is the single biggest cost of the car? A battery a an EV can cost 15k or more. Battery costs have been dropping about 7% per year. What does dropping battery costs do for a companies cash flow?

What about the 2 billion deal they signed with FCA? All that money goes right to the bottom line right?

I'm not trying to attack Tesla.

Sure you are. You are trying to discourage people from buying their cars by claiming the company won't exist in a few years.

The cars seem great although I still prefer hybrids because they get great mileage and you don't have to wait long periods to recharge.

Hybrid cars can't compete against pure evs. They have all the complexity of a gas car plus all the added complexity of a bev. It's stupid. Just make the battery/electric motor bigger and get rid of all unnecessary gasoline power train.

If I was just commuting they would be great.

Telsa has an entire network if superchargers to address that problem. It's not really an issue for them. People take Teslas on long trips all the time.

I don't expect Tesla to go away but they haven't proved that they can manufacture and sell $30k cars profitably (even with subsidies and regulatory advantages like EV credits). We'll see where it goes but they aren't working from a position of financial strength.

We will see if your prediction is correct. Tesla will burn through 5 billion in cash over the next 4 quarters.

 

[bdgan]

If you look back to the earlier quarters you'll see that Tesla's cash flow was enhanced by pushing out payiments to suppliers (increase in A/P). They'll only be able to push so far.

What about battery costs? You know that little thing in an EV that is the single biggest cost of the car? A battery a an EV can cost 15k or more. Battery costs have been dropping about 7% per year. What does dropping battery costs do for a companies cash flow?

What about the 2 billion deal they signed with FCA? All that money goes right to the bottom line right?

I'm not trying to attack Tesla.

Sure you are. You are trying to discourage people from buying their cars by claiming the company won't exist in a few years.

The cars seem great although I still prefer hybrids because they get great mileage and you don't have to wait long periods to recharge.

Hybrid cars can't compete against pure evs. They have all the complexity of a gas car plus all the added complexity of a bev. It's stupid. Just make the battery/electric motor bigger and get rid of all

If I was just commuting they would be great.

Telsa has an entire network if superchargers to address that problem. It's not really an issue for them. People take Teslas on long trips all the time.

I don't expect Tesla to go away but they haven't proved that they can manufacture and sell $30k cars profitably (even with subsidies and regulatory advantages like EV credits). We'll see where it goes but they aren't working from a position of financial strength.

We will see if your prediction is correct. Tesla will burn through 5 billion in cash over the next 4 quarters.

I'm not sure what battery cost has to do with Tesla's historical cash flows.

I haven't discouraged people from buying a Tesla. I said they are high rated cars and that I might buy one if was commuting. Right now I prefer my hybrid that gets >40 mpg and I can quickly and conveniently refuel. I don't want to make 3-4 2hr stops to recharge during my long distance travel. Also, I never said that the company wouldn't exist. I've specifically said that it would likely continue in some form. You're just making shyt up.

Tesla has $5b of cash. They also have nearly $3b of accounts payable, $2b of short term debt, and $4b of other short term liabilities.

 

[rumble_lion]

I'm not sure what battery cost has to do with Tesla's historical cash flows.

I haven't discouraged people from buying a Tesla. I said they are high rated cars and that I might buy one if was commuting. Right now I prefer my hybrid that gets >40 mpg and I can quickly and conveniently refuel. I don't want to make 3-4 2hr stops to recharge during my long distance travel. Also, I never said that the company wouldn't exist. I've specifically said that it would likely continue in some form. You're just making shyt up.

Tesla has $5b of cash. They also have nearly $3b of accounts payable, $2b of short term debt, and $4b of other short term liabilities.

I'm not sure what battery cost has to do with Tesla's historical cash flows.

The batteries for the cars they sell cost them less and less while the price they sell the car for remains the same.

I don't want to make 3-4 2hr stops to recharge during my long distance travel.

Nobody with a Tesla stops 2 hours to charge during a trip. You are just spreading fud.

A family in a Tesla Model 3 managed to beat the EV cannonball record, which consists of crossing the US from east to west in an electric vehicle as fast as possible, by 2 hours.

“Starting in New York City at “Red Ball Garage” on 31st and 3rd Avenue on Friday, July 12that 11:02 pm EDT, they arrived at the Portofino Hotel in Redondo Beach at 08:12 pm PDT on Sunday, July 14th, making the 2’835 mile (4’562 km) trip in 48 hours and 10 minutes. To our knowledge, beating the previous record time for EVs by 2 hours and 6 minutes. The average speed of 58.9 mph (94,8 km/h)included 19 stops at Tesla Superchargers on the way. The overwhelming majority of the trip was driven by using the Tesla Autopilot, including the “navigate on autopilot” functionalities. The drive was documented with a start-to-finish time-lapse video and with the time-stamped supercharging protocol.”

“On the trip, we consumed a total of 832 kWh of energy, averaging 293 Wh/mi (182 Wh/km). The trip was driven with three drivers, cabin temperature set at around 70 degrees, AC on at 100% of the time. Throughout the run car carried about 840 lbs (380 kg) payload in passengers, luggage and supplies. The total charging cost amounts to US $ 136.26.”​

 

[bdgan]

I'm not sure what battery cost has to do with Tesla's historical cash flows.

The batteries for the cars they sell cost them less and less while the price they sell the car for remains the same.

I don't want to make 3-4 2hr stops to recharge during my long distance travel.

Nobody with a Tesla stops 2 hours to charge during a trip. You are just spreading fud.

A family in a Tesla Model 3 managed to beat the EV cannonball record, which consists of crossing the US from east to west in an electric vehicle as fast as possible, by 2 hours.

“Starting in New York City at “Red Ball Garage” on 31st and 3rd Avenue on Friday, July 12that 11:02 pm EDT, they arrived at the Portofino Hotel in Redondo Beach at 08:12 pm PDT on Sunday, July 14th, making the 2’835 mile (4’562 km) trip in 48 hours and 10 minutes. To our knowledge, beating the previous record time for EVs by 2 hours and 6 minutes. The average speed of 58.9 mph (94,8 km/h)included 19 stops at Tesla Superchargers on the way. The overwhelming majority of the trip was driven by using the Tesla Autopilot, including the “navigate on autopilot” functionalities. The drive was documented with a start-to-finish time-lapse video and with the time-stamped supercharging protocol.”

“On the trip, we consumed a total of 832 kWh of energy, averaging 293 Wh/mi (182 Wh/km). The trip was driven with three drivers, cabin temperature set at around 70 degrees, AC on at 100% of the time. Throughout the run car carried about 840 lbs (380 kg) payload in passengers, luggage and supplies. The total charging cost amounts to US $ 136.26.”​

I still don't know what lower battery costs in the future has to do with historical cash flows.

I have a friend that bought his Model 3 in Chicago and drove it to his winter place in Florida. He told me that he had to stop several times for 2 hrs to recharge. He said the car was great but you can only sit in a diner for so long waiting for the car to charge.

I'd like to have a Tesla but they're not perfect. You seem to think they are and you can't understand why Tesla's share of U.S. auto sales is less than .5%. I mean who wouldn't own one! Any why isn't Tesla profitable damn it?

 

[ClarkstonMark]

Recharging a Tesla can take less than an hour or all night depending on what you are plugged into.
Tesla makes it easy to find their fast charging stations (and their are third party apps as well), but if you are going anywhere off-grid / remote you better prepare yourself ahead of time.

 

[bdgan]

Recharging a Tesla can take less than an hour or all night depending on what you are plugged into.
Tesla makes it easy to find their fast charging stations (and their are third party apps as well), but if you are going anywhere off-grid / remote you better prepare yourself ahead of time.

My friend said that he didn't have go too far from the highway to find places to recharge. He said you just have to plan your stops.

 

[ClarkstonMark]

My friend said that he didn't have go too far from the highway to find places to recharge. He said you just have to plan your stops.

yes you do, but if it took him 2 hrs then he didn't plan very well

 

[rumble_lion]

I still don't know what lower battery costs in the future has to do with historical cash flows.

I have a friend that bought his Model 3 in Chicago and drove it to his winter place in Florida. He told me that he had to stop several times for 2 hrs to recharge. He said the car was great but you can only sit in a diner for so long waiting for the car to charge.

I'd like to have a Tesla but they're not perfect. You seem to think they are and you can't understand why Tesla's share of U.S. auto sales is less than .5%. I mean who wouldn't own one! Any why isn't Tesla profitable damn it?

I have a friend that bought his Model 3 in Chicago and drove it to his winter place in Florida. He told me that he had to stop several times for 2 hrs to recharge. He said the car was great but you can only sit in a diner for so long waiting for the car to charge.

I'm not sure what your friend is doing but he certainly is not plugged into a Tesla supercharger for 2 hours. With a gas car you stop at the gas station and fill your tank up all the way. That is not what you want to do with a Tesla. You want to stop at each supercharger and get just enough juice to make to the next supercharger. The lower the level of charge in the battery the faster they charge. You don't want to wait around and charge to 100% unless you have no other options.

Here is a video showing the charge profile of a model 3 on a Tesla supercharger. 162 miles of range added in 20 minutes, 218 miles added in 30 minutes. Please stop spreading fud about how a model 3 has to stop and charge for 2 hours during a long trip. I know, I know you really love Tesla's cars, you just can't help spreading untrue damaging information about them.




I'd like to have a Tesla but they're not perfect. You seem to think they are and you can't understand why Tesla's share of U.S. auto sales is less than .5%

Where did I say that? Telsa can only produce so many cars. Do you think they can go from producing 100,000 cars in 2017 to 2 or 3 million cars now? They will continue to grow and take market share away from the other manufactures.

Why don't we just wait to see if Tesla burns through 5 billion dollars in cash over the next 4 quarters like you predicted?

 

[BringBackStoneys]

I still don't know what lower battery costs in the future has to do with historical cash flows.

I have a friend that bought his Model 3 in Chicago and drove it to his winter place in Florida. He told me that he had to stop several times for 2 hrs to recharge. He said the car was great but you can only sit in a diner for so long waiting for the car to charge.

I'd like to have a Tesla but they're not perfect. You seem to think they are and you can't understand why Tesla's share of U.S. auto sales is less than .5%. I mean who wouldn't own one! Any why isn't Tesla profitable damn it?

This is nonsense. I dropped Chicago —> Tampa into A Better RoutePlanner (extremely accurate) and it shows a total of 2.5 hours of charging time for the 21 hour trip. No single charge stop is more than 26 minutes.

We’ve done about a dozen road trips in our Model 3 and never charged more than 30 minutes, unless we were charging overnight at a hotel.

 

[Pinkhippo PeanutButter]

This is nonsense. I dropped Chicago —> Tampa into A Better RoutePlanner (extremely accurate) and it shows a total of 2.5 hours of charging time for the 21 hour trip. No single charge stop is more than 26 minutes.

We’ve done about a dozen road trips in our Model 3 and never charged more than 30 minutes, unless we were charging overnight at a hotel.

And if there were more Teslas on the road they'd often have to wait in a line for a supercharger.

Gas stations generally can scale up, and already have met capacity.

EV charging stations will require grid upgrades. It's possible and cute to have a supercharger here and there, but the existing electric grid cannot support superchargers all over the place.

 

[BringBackStoneys]

And if there were more Teslas on the road they'd often have to wait in a line for a supercharger.

Gas stations generally can scale up, and already have met capacity.

EV charging stations will require grid upgrades. It's possible and cute to have a supercharger here and there, but the existing electric grid cannot support superchargers all over the place.

Are you really making the argument that the distribution and delivery of gasoline scales better than electricity?

The grid has been studied extensively re: electric vehicles and won’t require an upgrade until the US fleet is 30% EVs. Weak arguments.

 

[Pinkhippo PeanutButter]

Are you really making the argument that the distribution and delivery of gasoline scales better than electricity?

The grid has been studied extensively re: electric vehicles and won’t require an upgrade until the US fleet is 30% EVs. Weak arguments.

I mean gas doesn't have to scale, it already has.

The mostly imaginary supercharging stations don't have grid support to offer more outlets.

The fed subsidies should have gone to that, and a company neutral charging standard vs favoring one company.

This is especially true "in the middle of nowhere" where rest stops exist. 200 miles from a power plant? They of course have gas pumps and electricity to run them. They don't have electrical service that could handle 10, 20, 30 cars charging at once.

A competitor can not open across the street and offer more stations. Or even 20 miles down the road. They all are limited by their electricity feed. Which is the same feed for all there. It would cost gazillions to upgrade

 

[rumble_lion]

I mean gas doesn't have to scale, it already has.

The mostly imaginary supercharging stations don't have grid support to offer more outlets.

The fed subsidies should have gone to that, and a company neutral charging standard vs favoring one company.

This is especially true "in the middle of nowhere" where rest stops exist. 200 miles from a power plant? They of course have gas pumps and electricity to run them. They don't have electrical service that could handle 10, 20, 30 cars charging at once.

A competitor can not open across the street and offer more stations. Or even 20 miles down the road. They all are limited by their electricity feed. Which is the same feed for all there. It would cost gazillions to upgrade

You realize that unlike gasoline cars, electric don't always have to charged in the road? 95% of all charging is done at home. You will only need to use superchargers when travelling beyond your cars maximum range.

I mean gas doesn't have to scale, it already has.

50 stall supercharger station in China, remember these cannot possibly "scale" lol.




The mostly imaginary supercharging stations don't have grid support to offer more outlets.

Maps of imaginary super charger locations:

 

[BringBackStoneys]

I mean gas doesn't have to scale, it already has.

The mostly imaginary supercharging stations don't have grid support to offer more outlets.

The fed subsidies should have gone to that, and a company neutral charging standard vs favoring one company.

This is especially true "in the middle of nowhere" where rest stops exist. 200 miles from a power plant? They of course have gas pumps and electricity to run them. They don't have electrical service that could handle 10, 20, 30 cars charging at once.

A competitor can not open across the street and offer more stations. Or even 20 miles down the road. They all are limited by their electricity feed. Which is the same feed for all there. It would cost gazillions to upgrade

Superchargers are sited on major highways and have the same load as 1-4 typical fast food restaurants depending upon number of stalls. Where are these stretches of highway you describe that are so busy that they will be crowded withTeslas, yet don’t have sufficient supply to support the equivalent of 2 KFCs?

Utilities are very accommodating as new sites go in because...they like selling electricity.

 

[Lion78]

I don't want to make 3-4 2hr stops to recharge during my long distance travel.

In 6 years of driving a Tesla, I've never had a 2 hour stop. In 2013-5 it was probably 1.5 hours if I started near empty and waited for the last few drops. Typically, I would wait about 45 minutes, hitting the head and grabbing a bite after 2.5 hours on the road. Ready to go another 2.5 hours. Today it's more like 20 minutes for the same duration.

All that agita for a handful of trips a year, when you seem to forget that I never once had to stop at a gas station on the way home from work, ever.

 

[BringBackStoneys]

In 6 years of driving a Tesla, I've never had a 2 hour stop. In 2013-5 it was probably 1.5 hours if I started near empty and waited for the last few drops. Typically, I would wait about 45 minutes, hitting the head and grabbing a bite after 2.5 hours on the road. Ready to go another 2.5 hours. Today it's more like 20 minutes for the same duration.

All that agita for a handful of trips a year, when you seem to forget that I never once had to stop at a gas station on the way home from work, ever.

So true. Add up all of the time and money you spend stopping for gas, getting oil changes...

Why sacrifice a superior driving experience 99% of the time to accommodate a minor inconvenience 1% of the time?

 

[rumble_lion]

So true. Add up all of the time and money you spend stopping for gas, getting oil changes...

Why sacrifice a superior driving experience 99% of the time to accommodate a minor inconvenience 1% of the time?

Because you want to slow down the adoption of evs so you spread fud? If evs take off there is going to be a lot of revenue streams that will have different destinations than they do now.

 

[BringBackStoneys]

The $185,000 Porsche Taycan was just revealed. After 6 years of development, the announced range is 280 miles which will likely be rounded down to 220 using the EPA range method. The new Model S get 370 miles, has faster acceleration and is $80k less. More of the same.

 

[rumble_lion]

The $185,000 Porsche Taycan was just revealed. After 6 years of development, the announced range is 280 miles which will likely be rounded down to 220 using the EPA range method. The new Model S get 370 miles, has faster acceleration and is $80k less. More of the same.

The old guard doesn't really want to sell a lot of evs. So when they introduce one they have to do something to keep the sales down. The Leaf, the i3 and the Bolt all were but ugly. Porsche screwed up and it looks like they made a nice car people might want to buy. So they set the price at 185k. Oh well I guess it's a small step forward.

 

[ClarkstonMark]

The old guard doesn't really want to sell a lot of evs. So when they introduce one they have to do something to keep the sales down. The Leaf, the i3 and the Bolt all were but ugly. Porsche screwed up and it looks like they made a nice car people might want to buy. So they set the price at 185k. Oh well I guess it's a small step forward.

This is the smartest thing you have said in this thread, and you’ve said a lot of smart things.
I was wondering if you got this, and was going to point it out but never got around to it.
If you’re out in CA we should get a beer next time I’m in San Jose

 

[Pinkhippo PeanutButter]

The old guard doesn't really want to sell a lot of evs. So when they introduce one they have to do something to keep the sales down. The Leaf, the i3 and the Bolt all were but ugly. Porsche screwed up and it looks like they made a nice car people might want to buy. So they set the price at 185k. Oh well I guess it's a small step forward.

I don't think it's that they (the old guard) don't want to sell EVs, but that with gas prices low, they can easily compete with gas cars.

They are using this time to experiment, and the sales they have are mainly to test concepts and meet required mpg fleet regulations.

If gas goes up to $4-5 per gallon, EVs will sell like crazy, and they'll have optimized designs ready to launch.

And they'll always be prepared to balance their portfolio accordingly.

They've got tons of market data showing the relationship between gas prices and what sells. I believe they are just waiting for now.

Right now, Tesla's (any EV) total cost of ownership does not seem to move the needle for (most) buyers. There are tradeoffs either way, but if gas hits $5 a gallon, that surely is a trigger for consumers to buy EV vs ICE.

 

[rumble_lion]

I don't think it's that they (the old guard) don't want to sell EVs, but that with gas prices low, they can easily compete with gas cars.

They are using this time to experiment, and the sales they have are mainly to test concepts and meet required mpg fleet regulations.

If gas goes up to $4-5 per gallon, EVs will sell like crazy, and they'll have optimized designs ready to launch.

And they'll always be prepared to balance their portfolio accordingly.

They've got tons of market data showing the relationship between gas prices and what sells. I believe they are just waiting for now.

Right now, Tesla's (any EV) total cost of ownership does not seem to move the needle for (most) buyers. There are tradeoffs either way, but if gas hits $5 a gallon, that surely is a trigger for consumers to buy EV vs ICE.

I don't think it's that they (the old guard) don't want to sell EVs, but that with gas prices low, they can easily compete with gas cars.

What gas cars compete with the Tesla models? It's not like Tesla is having their sales held back due to superior gas cars competing with their bevs.

They are using this time to experiment, and the sales they have are mainly to test concepts and meet required mpg fleet regulations.

Experiment? Because they don't understand how to make a bev? What it will take them 10 years and 4 experiments before they can figure it out? Heck they can just buy a Tesla and tear it apart.

If gas goes up to $4-5 per gallon, EVs will sell like crazy, and they'll have optimized designs ready to launch.

Europe is pretty big car market, gas is more than 4-5 dollars a gallon there. Why don't we see an electric Ford or Chevy being sold in Europe?

And they'll always be prepared to balance their portfolio accordingly.

pfffft. All they care about is making next quarters numbers. There is not grand plan of "rebalancing" their portfolio.

They've got tons of market data showing the relationship between gas prices and what sells. I believe they are just waiting for now.

They don't have tons of market data from Europe? Strange that.......

Right now, Tesla's (any EV) total cost of ownership does not seem to move the needle for (most) buyers. There are tradeoffs either way, but if gas hits $5 a gallon, that surely is a trigger for consumers to buy EV vs ICE

Ehhh, I would say people most people don't buy a car based on the total cost of ownership.

 

[BringBackStoneys]

I don't think it's that they (the old guard) don't want to sell EVs, but that with gas prices low, they can easily compete with gas cars.

They are using this time to experiment, and the sales they have are mainly to test concepts and meet required mpg fleet regulations.

If gas goes up to $4-5 per gallon, EVs will sell like crazy, and they'll have optimized designs ready to launch.

And they'll always be prepared to balance their portfolio accordingly.

They've got tons of market data showing the relationship between gas prices and what sells. I believe they are just waiting for now.

Right now, Tesla's (any EV) total cost of ownership does not seem to move the needle for (most) buyers. There are tradeoffs either way, but if gas hits $5 a gallon, that surely is a trigger for consumers to buy EV vs ICE.

There is no reason to believe that any of the legacy car makers have optimized designs in their back pockets. Porsche had pumped the Taycan’s “300+ mile range” for years, then delivered a car with 220-280 mile range - the same specs as a 2012 Tesla Model S.

The Model 3 tear down videos that came out last year were really revealing. Sandy Munro from Detroit called the motors ‘military-grade tech’ and ‘magic’.

Tearing down the Audi E-Tron, they used off-the-shelf 3rd party motors and it’s floundering. VW follows that up with the Taycan with the same mediocre performance profile. There is no indication that they have ‘magic’ up their sleeve for electric drive trains.

 

[rumble_lion]

There is no reason to believe that any of the legacy car makers have optimized designs in their back pockets. Porsche had pumped the Taycan’s “300+ mile range” for years, then delivered a car with 220-280 mile range - the same specs as a 2012 Tesla Model S.

The Model 3 tear down videos that came out last year were really revealing. Sandy Munro from Detroit called the motors ‘military-grade tech’ and ‘magic’.

Tearing down the Audi E-Tron, they used off-the-shelf 3rd party motors and it’s floundering. VW follows that up with the Taycan with the same mediocre performance profile. There is no indication that they have ‘magic’ up their sleeve for electric drive trains.

These guys have been outsourcing everything they can for decades. They have to wait for a supplier to come up with better battery packs or electric motors....

 

[bdgan]

I don't think it's that they (the old guard) don't want to sell EVs, but that with gas prices low, they can easily compete with gas cars.

What gas cars compete with the Tesla models? It's not like Tesla is having their sales held back due to superior gas cars competing with their bevs.

They are using this time to experiment, and the sales they have are mainly to test concepts and meet required mpg fleet regulations.

Experiment? Because they don't understand how to make a bev? What it will take them 10 years and 4 experiments before they can figure it out? Heck they can just buy a Tesla and tear it apart.

If gas goes up to $4-5 per gallon, EVs will sell like crazy, and they'll have optimized designs ready to launch.

Europe is pretty big car market, gas is more than 4-5 dollars a gallon there. Why don't we see an electric Ford or Chevy being sold in Europe?

And they'll always be prepared to balance their portfolio accordingly.

pfffft. All they care about is making next quarters numbers. There is not grand plan of "rebalancing" their portfolio.

They've got tons of market data showing the relationship between gas prices and what sells. I believe they are just waiting for now.

They don't have tons of market data from Europe? Strange that.......

Right now, Tesla's (any EV) total cost of ownership does not seem to move the needle for (most) buyers. There are tradeoffs either way, but if gas hits $5 a gallon, that surely is a trigger for consumers to buy EV vs ICE

Ehhh, I would say people most people don't buy a car based on the total cost of ownership.

Europeans drive small high mpg cars.
Volkswagen Golf
Renault Clio
Ford Fiesta

If auto makers only cared about the next qtr financials they wouldn't be investing in EVs.

 

[rumble_lion]

Europeans drive small high mpg cars.
Volkswagen Golf
Renault Clio
Ford Fiesta

If auto makers only cared about the next qtr financials they wouldn't be investing in EVs.

Yeah they are. Remember when Volkswagon predicted they would be the world leaders in EVs by 2018?

As far as evs go, about the only thing they have invested in is press briefings.

 

[rumble_lion]

Europeans drive small high mpg cars.
Volkswagen Golf
Renault Clio
Ford Fiesta

If auto makers only cared about the next qtr financials they wouldn't be investing in EVs.

Your timing is always so amazing. How do you do it?

https://www.theguardian.com/technol...del-3-was-uk-third-best-selling-car-in-august

The Tesla Model 3 has rapidly become the UK’s third most popular new car as sales of electric vehicles overall doubled in the past year.

New owners registered 2,082 Tesla Model 3 cars in August, according to data published on Thursday by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

The figures meant Model 3 registrations overtook popular cars including the Ford Focus, the Vauxhall Corsa and the Mercedes-Benz A-Class in August. Only the Ford Fiesta and the Volkswagen Golf sold more during the month.​

Most popular new cars in the UK in August
1 Ford Fiesta – 3,978 registrations
2 Volkswagen Golf – 3,439
3 Tesla Model 3 – 2,082
4 Ford Focus – 1,886
5 Mercedes-Benz A-Class – 1,880
6 Ford Kuga – 1,770
7 Volkswagen T-Roc – 1,685
8 Volkswagen Tiguan – 1,632
9 Vauxhall Corsa – 1,592
10 Ford Ecosport – 1,477​

 

[bdgan]

Your timing is always so amazing. How do you do it?

https://www.theguardian.com/technol...del-3-was-uk-third-best-selling-car-in-august

The Tesla Model 3 has rapidly become the UK’s third most popular new car as sales of electric vehicles overall doubled in the past year.

New owners registered 2,082 Tesla Model 3 cars in August, according to data published on Thursday by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

The figures meant Model 3 registrations overtook popular cars including the Ford Focus, the Vauxhall Corsa and the Mercedes-Benz A-Class in August. Only the Ford Fiesta and the Volkswagen Golf sold more during the month.​

Most popular new cars in the UK in August
1 Ford Fiesta – 3,978 registrations
2 Volkswagen Golf – 3,439
3 Tesla Model 3 – 2,082
4 Ford Focus – 1,886
5 Mercedes-Benz A-Class – 1,880
6 Ford Kuga – 1,770
7 Volkswagen T-Roc – 1,685
8 Volkswagen Tiguan – 1,632
9 Vauxhall Corsa – 1,592
10 Ford Ecosport – 1,477​

https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/europes-best-selling-cars-2018/

UK vs Europe
August
Really?

 

[rumble_lion]

https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/europes-best-selling-cars-2018/

UK vs Europe
August
Really?

Your article is from the middle of 2018. Telsa didn't start shipping model 3 cars to the UK until June 2019. That means they would not have shown up on your list from 2018.

I know how much you love Tesla so this must be another one of those oversights you keep having.

 

[bdgan]

Your article is from the middle of 2018. Telsa didn't start shipping model 3 cars to the UK until June 2019. That means they would not have shown up on your list from 2018.

I know how much you love Tesla so this must be another one of those oversights you keep having.

Q1 2019

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/europe/q1-2019-europe-best-selling-car-manufacturers-and-brands/

 

[rumble_lion]

Q1 2019

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/europe/q1-2019-europe-best-selling-car-manufacturers-and-brands/

You are getting closer. Tesla did not start shipping the model 3 to the UK until June of 2019. How would this car show up on the list that covers the first quarter of 2019?

Did you know that the Tesla model 3 sold exactly zero cars in the UK during 2017! Can you believe how amazingly bad the model 3 is selling in the UK!

 

[rumble_lion]

1 year but it won't come to that. More dilutive equity.

Well it's been a couple of months since your prediction that Tesla would burn through all their cash in 12 months. They just released their 2019 3Q results.

Tesla said capital expenditures totaled $385 million in the quarter. That was more than the $250 million spent in the second quarter, but down from $510 million in the third quarter a year ago.

At the same time, it said its cash on hand grew to $5.3 billion, an increase of $383 million.Tesla reported $371 million in free cash flow, a measure of cash generated beyond operating expenses and capital spending.
​

Man they are going to have to go on big spending spree for the next 3 quarters!

 

[rumble_lion]

I thought Tesla's patents were famously open and license free. If so, none of this is actually an advantage. Anyone can do it.

How do you beat Tesla by copying what they were doing 2 years ago?

Pace of innovation is all that matters in the long run.
- Elon Musk

 

[sluggo72]

Well looks like a classic short squeeze this am, up 48 pre market.

 

[rumble_lion]

Well it's been a couple of months since your prediction that Tesla would burn through all their cash in 12 months. They just released their 2019 3Q results.

Tesla said capital expenditures totaled $385 million in the quarter. That was more than the $250 million spent in the second quarter, but down from $510 million in the third quarter a year ago.

At the same time, it said its cash on hand grew to $5.3 billion, an increase of $383 million.Tesla reported $371 million in free cash flow, a measure of cash generated beyond operating expenses and capital spending.
​

Man they are going to have to go on big spending spree for the next 3 quarters!

bdgan what happened? Are you ok?