Upsets Galore! But Not Unusual...

[RoarLions1]

Once again the NCAA Tournament was full of intrigue. Where would upsets happen?

A few topics before the first bout began -- How would Sam Stoll hold up? Could 33rd seed Joe Smith make noise? Could freshman RBY become an AA in a loaded weight class? Would Spencer Lee win his second? … and more.

So, I did a quick analysis, big picture, though there is weight class by weight class data available.

-- There were 60 upsets in championship brackets
-- There were 97 upsets in wrestleback brackets
-- The same number of bouts are wrestled in both (320), so 19% and 30%, respectively
-- 125 had the lowest in the championship bracket (3, and one of those was 33 over 32)
-- 141, 157, 165, 174, and 184 all had 7 in the championship bracket
-- 165 had the most in wrestlebacks (14)

Slightly different topic -- A few facts on Seniors...

-- 26 Seniors earned AA
-- Four weight classes had only 1 Senior AA (125, 141, 165, 174)
-- 184 had the most Senior AA's (6)

 

[7brwnpsu]

I was just looking at the brackets for that, thanks Roar. The 184 was the most busted bracket with 5 Dean and 6 Foster in the finals and the semifinals had 1 vs 5 and 6 vs 15.

Five weights had 1 vs 2 and two had 1 vs 3.

Pretty good seeding I'd say.

 

[eddy line]

Interesting. Thanks for sharing, Roar.

Just as I don't look at a 33 over a 32 as much of an upset, I don't think a 4 over a 3 or, say, a 16 over a 14 is much of one either. So I wonder how many "true" upsets, which I'd arbitrarily define as at least a 5-place differential in seeding, there really were? My sense is we didn't see that many of them.

 

[RoarLions1]

Interesting. Thanks for sharing, Roar.

Just as I don't look at a 33 over a 32 as much of an upset, I don't think a 4 over a 3 or, say, a 16 over a 14 is much of one either. So I wonder how many "true" upsets, which I'd arbitrarily define as at least a 5-place differential in seeding, there really were? My sense is we didn't see that many of them.

Hard to look at, using just a number, like "5" as you requested. A 4-seed beating a 1-seed is as monumental as a 25-seed beating a 15-seed (just using this as an example). Something to think about on my ride home.

At 174, we had;
22 over 11
22 over 6
33 over 17
33 over 15
33 over 7
29 over 13
29 over 14