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Which number 1's and/or undefeated guys don't finish there after nationals?

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Pennstate1985

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Mar 14, 2016
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Got this from the Ohio wrestling board and find it an interesting question. Rank in order which guys who are #1 or undefeated will most likely stay that way through nationals:

125-Gillman 23-0
133-Nato 15-0
141- Heil 23-0
149- Zain 18-0
157- Nolf18-0
165- Martinez 23-0
174- Bo 11-0 / Valencia 31-0
184- Dean 25-0 / Nickal 17-0
197- Cox 19-0
285.-Snyder 9-0

I'd say most likely to least likely to be...

285
165
149
157
197
125
133
141
184 (valencia)
174 (Dean)
 
The average number of #1 seeds that end up as champs is 5.4 out of 10 for the past 5 years. High was 7 (2012), low was 3 (2014).\

I like '85's list, though I'd probably move Retherford and Nolf in front of Martinez.
 
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Pennstate1985 said:
Got this from the Ohio wrestling board and find it an interesting question. Rank in order which guys who are #1 or undefeated will most likely stay that way through nationals:

125-Gillman 23-0
133-Nato 15-0
141- Heil 23-0
149- Zain 18-0
157- Nolf18-0
165- Martinez 23-0
174- Bo 11-0 / Valencia 31-0
184- Dean 25-0 / Nickal 17-0
197- Cox 19-0
285.-Snyder 9-0

I'd say most likely to least likely to be...

285
165
149
157
197
125
133
141
184 (valencia)
174 (Dean)
Click to expand...

Here's another question. Have all 10 #1s been undefeated going into NCAAs before?
 
Was thinking same thing. Martinez wrestles a lot of close matches and I think he could fall more that zain and nolf.
 
I'd also move Cox ahead of Martinez -- in a vacuum I'd take Martinez first, but 197 has a much bigger talent gap.
 
Cali_Nittany said:
Here's another question. Have all 10 #1s been undefeated going into NCAAs before?
Click to expand...
Can't think of a year with all ten. Here's some general "undefeated" data from the last 7 NCAA's.

2010 - 9 entered undefeated, 5 finished undefeated
2011 - 15 entered undefeated, 5 finished undefeated
2012 - 8 entered undefeated, 4 finished undefeated
2013 - 9 entered undefeated, 6 finished undefeated
2014 - 4 entered undefeated, 1 finished undefeated (DT)
2015 - 8 entered undefeated, 4 finished undefeated
2016 - 9 entered undefeated, 5 finished undefeated
 
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Is there anyone that can challenge Cox?
285
197
149
157
165
125
133
141
184
174 (two could go down with Hall peaking)
 
Order of staying undefeated ..
285-Synder
149,,Zain
157..Nolf
165..IMar
197..Cox
125..Gillman
133.. Nato
184..Dean
174..Hall will win this weight
141... Ashnault will this weight
So 8 should win and stay undefeated.
 
I would personally swap Gilman and Nato. I think Gilman has had more close calls than Nato has and is more likely to be upset. Nato is a rock.

Great stuff.
 
Is it me or are there an abnormally higher number of weights this year where competition for the top spot is lacking? In other words, the top guy is on a different level than the rest at that weight.
 
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I'm picking Gilman, Heil, Martinez, and Bo Jordon to go down before the end of the season to Suriano, Jimmy, Cenzo, and Hall respectively. Wishful thinking? Perhaps, but I like our guy's chances.
 
I think I put Heil at the bottom of the list. You can't continually play with fire in that 141 field, and expect not to get burned. It just seems as though taking the field at 141 is a safer bet than taking the one guy that can beat Dean. Even though I have a lot of faith in BO.
 
minnhawkeye said:
Order of staying undefeated ..
285-Synder
149,,Zain
157..Nolf
165..IMar
197..Cox
125..Gillman
133.. Nato
184..Dean
174..Hall will win this weight
141... Ashnault will this weight
So 8 should win and stay undefeated.
Click to expand...
If I were in Rutgers' camp I would be very worried about Ashnault's cut effecting him Friday night. Kid was terrible last year on Friday night, looked like he had no energy.
 
Lyco1990 said:
Great list I think I would switch 125 and 133. Gilman is vulnerable.
Click to expand...
that being said he hasn't had any matches where he didn't control them. Yes, a few close one's but throughout the course of the year. I wouldn't say he is any more vulnerable to others that are undefeated. of course, I do want to see Dance take a shot at him.
 
a_mshaffer said:
that being said he hasn't had any matches where he didn't control them. Yes, a few close one's but throughout the course of the year. I wouldn't say he is any more vulnerable to others that are undefeated. of course, I do want to see Dance take a shot at him.
Click to expand...
Down 8-0 to Lizak is not really controlling the match.
 
Pennstate1985 said:
If Suriano is up 6-2 or 8-0 over Gilman, Nick's hand is getting raised at the end of 7 minutes.
Click to expand...
Yea... don't think he could take Nick down more than twice in a period - even in a "back to the wall" situation. Nick is not Lizak!
 
a_mshaffer said:
Yea... don't think he could take Nick down more than twice in a period - even in a "back to the wall" situation. Nick is not Lizak!
Click to expand...
No, he's not...but I'll give Lizak his due. The big lead was the result of Lizak's top game, which is among the best in the biz...and something Nick, and almost all wrestlers do not have.
 
RoarLions1 said:
No, he's not...but I'll give Lizak his due. The big lead was the result of Lizak's top game, which is among the best in the biz...and something Nick, and almost all wrestlers do not have.
Click to expand...

The goal is to win the toss and take neutral against Lizak, otherwise, just last out the two minutes without back points. Lizak has the best ride of any kid in the light weight catagory, by a country mile. Basically, just take him down a bunch of times and build up a lead. If you don't wrestle the right way though, he can beat you. What is troubling right now, is how badly he is gassing, it reminds me of Andrew Alton, and it is scary.
 
Without question, I'll take 174, as the weight in which the champion, will not end up undefeated. In fact, one of them will have one loss going into Nationals, and it won't be Valencia.
 
Most likely to stay undefeated, in order (i think they all go undefeated).
Snyder
Nolf
IMar
Nickal
Zain
Gilman

Nobody else on the list goes undefeated.
 
burnsie1983 said:
Agree with this, Nolf destroyed Kemerer, Berger, and every other wrestler he's faced. Zains close bout with Sorenson certainly gives the edge to Nolf. I do think Zain will do awful things to Sorenson next time they wrestle, for the record.
Click to expand...
I agree he destroyed every other wrestler he faced since he won by TF or Fall in all those matches. He did major Berger. But I would disagree that he "destroyed" Kemerer. It was scoreless after the first and ended up a 9-4 decision. Kemerer really didn't come close to scoring offensively but he fought off multiple takedown attempts better than anyone else in this weight class.
 
kemerer didnt attempt to score offensively and he hung on for dear life to get stalemates. probably to minimize the bonus points in a dual setting. if he tries to open it up at BIGs or NCAAS nolf will destroy him even more
 
Pennstate1985 said:
Got this from the Ohio wrestling board and find it an interesting question. Rank in order which guys who are #1 or undefeated will most likely stay that way through nationals:

125-Gillman 23-0
133-Nato 15-0
141- Heil 23-0
149- Zain 18-0
157- Nolf18-0
165- Martinez 23-0
174- Bo 11-0 / Valencia 31-0
184- Dean 25-0 / Nickal 17-0
197- Cox 19-0
285.-Snyder 9-0

I'd say most likely to least likely to be...

285
165
149
157
197
125
133
141
184 (valencia)
174 (Dean)
Click to expand...
Gillman will lose to Nick this time...Hey if any of you guys get the chance go see him wrestle Nico now...WOW...That loss was exactly what he needed....141 174 and 184 will be going down too....
 
RoarLions1 said:
Can't think of a year with all ten. Here's some general "undefeated" data from the last 7 NCAA's.

2010 - 9 entered undefeated, 5 finished undefeated
2011 - 15 entered undefeated, 5 finished undefeated
2012 - 8 entered undefeated, 4 finished undefeated
2013 - 9 entered undefeated, 6 finished undefeated
2014 - 4 entered undefeated, 1 finished undefeated (DT)
2015 - 8 entered undefeated, 4 finished undefeated
2016 - 9 entered undefeated, 5 finished undefeated
Click to expand...

Roughly 52% of undefeated wrestlers, finish with a defeat. Interesting. Nice work Roar.
 
HOCKEYGOD11 said:
Was thinking same thing. Martinez wrestles a lot of close matches and I think he could fall more that zain and nolf.
Click to expand...
Cenzo will beat Martinez...He has been working on the ankle grabs and do not be surprised if he decks him in a scramble..Cenzo is getting very good in these situations....Matinez is sooo boring..No wonder Ill never will have several great guys...They teach a very boring style....
 
minnhawkeye said:
Order of staying undefeated ..
285-Synder
149,,Zain
157..Nolf
165..IMar
197..Cox
125..Gillman
133.. Nato
184..Dean
174..Hall will win this weight
141... Ashnault will this weight
So 8 should win and stay undefeated.
Click to expand...
Bo will either major Dean or deck him !!!! LOVES GREAT AGAINST DT IN THE ROOM....
 
findtheStrength said:
kemerer didnt attempt to score offensively and he hung on for dear life to get stalemates. probably to minimize the bonus points in a dual setting. if he tries to open it up at BIGs or NCAAS nolf will destroy him even more
Click to expand...
We shall see. Just rewatched their match and Nolf definitely had more shots but I counted 5 or 6 true shots for Kemerer so I wouldn't say he didn't attempt to score. Nolf will probably beat him at Big 10s and/or Nationals if they meet but I would be surprised if he got anything more than a close major.
 
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