Will we make the top 4 if we only have 1 loss
- Thread starter walleye38
- Start date
We'd need Michigan to beat Ohio St, and the tiebreaker to break right for us to win the Big Ten. If so, then it's very possible.
Without a Big Ten title, it is very unlikely.
Will be tough this year: fsu is in if it goes undefeated. Def gets one likely. Wash in of undefeated - and Oregon in if it beats wash in CCg? Texas probably in if it wins out - victory over bama. We probably need to win and have um beat osu and then go to and win the big ten cg….
A 1-loss PSU isn't the issue near as much as the teams around us.
Beating Michigan is step 1. It's going to be very tough to do that.
Beating Michigan is step 1. It's going to be very tough to do that.
So the remaining 0/1 loss teams are:
OSU
UGA
UM
FSU
Washington
Oregon
Texas
Bama
Ole Miss
PSU
l'ville
Tulane
JMU
The two paths in are either OSU goes undefeated and the big ten gets a second team or the 3 way split happens and the tiebreak falls in our favor and we win the conference.
Tulane isn't getting in with 1 loss and JMU isn't getting in regardless.
Tiebreak path:
Big 10: Beat UM- UM Beats OSU. Tiebreak (not going through all those games) puts us in BTCG and we beat Iowa (probably) to finish as 12-1 big ten champs and ahead of 11-1 osu and 11-1 um.
SEC: UGA wins out eliminating Ole Miss and Bama in the process.
One of the following scenarios:
Big 12: Texas loses Big 12 CG or to Iowa State and never makes it (K-State could have really helped us out and eliminated the big 12 last weekend) guaranteeing 2 loss big 12 champ.
ACC: FSU loses to UF or the ACC CG
PAC: Washington drops a game to Or St or Utah and Oregon drops to Oregon State guaranteeing 2 loss Pac Champ
Big Ten Two Teams:
Big 10: Beat UM. OSU beats UM. OSU wins BTCG
SEC: UGA wins out eliminating Ole Miss and Bama in the process.
Two of the following scenarios:
Big 12: Texas loses Big 12 CG or to Iowa State and never makes it (K-State could have really helped us out and eliminated the big 12 last weekend) guaranteeing 2 loss big 12 champ.
ACC: FSU loses to UF and the ACC CG, Louisville losing to Ken
PAC: Washington drops a game to Or St or Utah and Oregon drops to Oregon State guaranteeing 2 loss Pac Champ
Other observations. If Ole Miss beats UGA, the SEC is in a really good position to get two teams. If that happens you need two of the scenarios to play out if we're big ten champs or all 3 if OSU wins the conference
OSU
UGA
UM
FSU
Washington
Oregon
Texas
Bama
Ole Miss
PSU
l'ville
Tulane
JMU
The two paths in are either OSU goes undefeated and the big ten gets a second team or the 3 way split happens and the tiebreak falls in our favor and we win the conference.
Tulane isn't getting in with 1 loss and JMU isn't getting in regardless.
Tiebreak path:
Big 10: Beat UM- UM Beats OSU. Tiebreak (not going through all those games) puts us in BTCG and we beat Iowa (probably) to finish as 12-1 big ten champs and ahead of 11-1 osu and 11-1 um.
SEC: UGA wins out eliminating Ole Miss and Bama in the process.
One of the following scenarios:
Big 12: Texas loses Big 12 CG or to Iowa State and never makes it (K-State could have really helped us out and eliminated the big 12 last weekend) guaranteeing 2 loss big 12 champ.
ACC: FSU loses to UF or the ACC CG
PAC: Washington drops a game to Or St or Utah and Oregon drops to Oregon State guaranteeing 2 loss Pac Champ
Big Ten Two Teams:
Big 10: Beat UM. OSU beats UM. OSU wins BTCG
SEC: UGA wins out eliminating Ole Miss and Bama in the process.
Two of the following scenarios:
Big 12: Texas loses Big 12 CG or to Iowa State and never makes it (K-State could have really helped us out and eliminated the big 12 last weekend) guaranteeing 2 loss big 12 champ.
ACC: FSU loses to UF and the ACC CG, Louisville losing to Ken
PAC: Washington drops a game to Or St or Utah and Oregon drops to Oregon State guaranteeing 2 loss Pac Champ
Other observations. If Ole Miss beats UGA, the SEC is in a really good position to get two teams. If that happens you need two of the scenarios to play out if we're big ten champs or all 3 if OSU wins the conference
If we lose to the #1 team on the road and beat the #3 team then obviously we SHOULD make the top 4 but unfortunately we would not. Only way would be for a few miracle losses by other 1-loss teams.
Big Ten winner will get in. Not seeing two teams from any conference getting in unless it blows up next few weeks. SEC and Big Ten winner will be in. Acc, pac12 and big 12 will fight for other 2 spots
A B2G title is still 50/50. The CFP committee are perfect 10s in mental gymnastics.
Here’s a hypothetical question. Let’s say we beat scUM in a close game and they turn around and blowout tOSU. Do they jump back over us in the rankings even though we’d own a heads-up victory over them?
Maybe but wouldn't matter. Whoever wins the tiebreak over the other two would end up the highest ranked after winning the championship game a week later.
Agreed but I don't think Texas needs to lose again for us to jump them in either scenario with a Michigan win.
I could see them jumping back over us if/when they win the big 12 assuming we aren’t the big ten champ. Not saying they would but who the f knows with the committee.
1) We beat Michigan handily
2) Michigan beats Ohio St and they both otherwise win out
3) We win the tiebreaker
4) Iowa wins out and then we destroy them again
5) WVU wins out
6) We get some help
2) Michigan beats Ohio St and they both otherwise win out
3) We win the tiebreaker
4) Iowa wins out and then we destroy them again
5) WVU wins out
6) We get some help
It doesn't matter what WVU does lol
Everyone has to stop the nonsense
And our best path might still be Ohio State winning out.
Iowa winning out only matters because of the tiebreaker. No one cares about Penn State beating WVU or Iowa--and they won't care about Rutgers either.
WVU winning helps. Increased SOS. Plus the might sneak into top 25 since there’s a lot of crap. Most 8-4 p5 teams have decent shot at being ranked. And the committee in the past has noted about wins vs top 25.
Iowas more so as them winning ties into our making the ccg.
If they do both end up ranked we’d have 2-3 top 25 wins (whether they are good or not is debatable) which is better than 1
Exactly. WVU plays #17 OU this Saturday. A 9-3 WVU team with a win over OU prob is ranked. A 10-3 Iowa team (with a loss in the B1G Champ game) prob is also ranked.
When 1-loss team resumes are compared, having WVU and Iowa ranked by the committee would help.
Sure seems like we'd need serious help from the rest of college football.
Sure, we need to beat Michigan and have Michigan beat Oh-high-ya. But the conferences that in the past were very weak at times, B12, ACC and PAC10 seem to have very worthy teams this year. Need some teams to beat up on each other. Hard to imagine the SEC not getting one team in the playoff, but we'd need at least one of the other 3 conferences to not have a worthy team. I don't believe this is a year when the B10 can get 2 teams into a 4 team playoff, so we need OSU to get beat bad by UM or lose a close game to UM and have another blot on their resume such as another loss or a very close game against a crappy team and time is running out for that.........
Sure, we need to beat Michigan and have Michigan beat Oh-high-ya. But the conferences that in the past were very weak at times, B12, ACC and PAC10 seem to have very worthy teams this year. Need some teams to beat up on each other. Hard to imagine the SEC not getting one team in the playoff, but we'd need at least one of the other 3 conferences to not have a worthy team. I don't believe this is a year when the B10 can get 2 teams into a 4 team playoff, so we need OSU to get beat bad by UM or lose a close game to UM and have another blot on their resume such as another loss or a very close game against a crappy team and time is running out for that.........
I'm sorry but pretending WVU being 9-3 is going to be considered an important win is just optimism. If OU loses to WVU then OU won't be ranked. That will be 3 straight losses and should be 4.
I agree about Iowa winning out is important for a tiebreaker and they actually could be ranked if they do so around 18-20 at 10-2 which would move the needle. Until we crush them again lol
Those schools winning can't hurt us. I just don't want people to complain when those two wins dont carry much value with the committee. Fair or not, they won't. The voters clearly aren't impressed with either.
I think we need to win the conference in the tiebreaker and still get the help you mention.
Georgia and Ohio State win out.
FSU loses a game
We beat Michigan in a convincing manner
If that happens we're in good shape.
I'd gladly let cards play out for us Texas and FSU with one loss even if they're conference champs.
Even better if Washington beats Oregon. A one loss Washington with Oregon in scares me the most.
If we win the tiebreaker and win the Big 10 then I like our odds. If OSU wins the tiebreaker and the Big 10 then no, our schedule likely won't be viewed as strong enough to get a second spot for the Big 10. If UM wins the tiebreaker and the Big 10 then no, OSU would get the 2nd spot if the Big 10 is lucky enough to get 2 teams.
If the tiebreaker doesn't come into play then it's unlikely we win the conference and therefore unlikely to make the playoff.
If the tiebreaker doesn't come into play then it's unlikely we win the conference and therefore unlikely to make the playoff.
We probably don't make it but if we are having a vigorous debate about this NEXT WEEK then that would be great because it means we beat scUM on Saturday.
That’s cause 90% of the posts are by youSmartest thing said in weeks here
I'm the only person that's come close to saying something that smartThat’s cause 90% of the posts are by you
I'm not worried about a 1-loss FSU or 1-loss Texas if we're 11-1 with a convincing win over Michigan
FSU will have a bad loss. Texas won't have anything other than the Bama win. The more Bama loses the better.
That's why the detailed scenarios about how we "need help" to get in are quite unnecessary at this point.
CCGs are huge. An 11-1 PSU team that doesn't make the Big Ten title game...is going to look pretty good next to EVEN a 1-loss conference championship game loser (like 12-1 Washington who drops the CCG game to 11-2 Oregon maybe...or 12-1 FSU who loses to 11-2 Louisville).
I will say this...if there's a 3-way tie at 11-1 and we don't win the tie-breaker, we'll be the 3rd Big Ten team in pecking order. And NO scenario exists where the Big Ten gets 3 of 4 in. I'm rooting for OSU and PSU to win out...
I could see us being 2nd in the pecking order if Ohio St wins the tiebreaker, and Iowa ends up winning the West. We'd stack up well against Michigan with the head-to-head win, and wins over Iowa and West Virginia (whereas Michigan would have very little on their resume other than the win over Ohio St).
But I doubt that would be enough unless things really fall apart elsewhere.
It depends how we beat Michigan in that case. If it's a tight win (like our 2016 OSU win), then the "eyeball" test would probably make the committee crush on them still. There are many talking heads saying Michigan is the best team in the country right now...so a tight road loss won't dissuade many of them.
