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WrestleStat Preseason Rankings!

andegre

andegre

Well-Known Member
May 18, 2004
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Here are the final WrestleStat season rankings before we actually get some match results entered into the system.

Wrestler Rankings (top 33 at each weight): https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/wrestler

125: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/125
133: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/133
141: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/141
149: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/149
157: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/157
165: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/165
174: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/174
184: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/184
197: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/197
285: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/weight/285

Dual Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/dual

Tournament Rankings: https://www.wrestlestat.com/rankings/tournament
 
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I understand that these rankings are compiled via algorithms but there is no substitute for the human element in wrestling. A computer will never be as good of a predictor of wrestling than a human with wrestling knowledge.
 
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Chickenman Testa said:
These rankings early in the season remind me of the classic Sagarin football ratings
Click to expand...

Agreed. However, I think team sports like football are more easily predicted by computers than one on one sports. There is less disparity between most ranked teams (like 1 & 2) than there is in wrestling. Many times you have a guy at a weight in wrestling at the top who is as far better than #2 as #2 is #25.
 
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jrd23psu said:
I understand that these rankings are compiled via algorithms but there is no substitute for the human element in wrestling. A computer will never be as good of a predictor of wrestling than a human with wrestling knowledge.
Click to expand...

I agree that a human could easily beat a computer at this point, but the difference is a result of that knowledge component. Right now all the computer knows is what the human tells it, which is likely very limited: when points were scored and how. The human can see everything in a match and take more information into account when making their prediction. But that's the hard part, how do we quantify the wrestling strength, speed, flexibility, and positioning that we can see with our eyes and feed that into a computer so that it has the same information that we have? If we can overcome that hurdle, the computer should be able to make make predictions better than humans since it won't have the same biases that humans are subject to.
 
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Chickenman Testa said:
These rankings early in the season remind me of the classic Sagarin football ratings
Click to expand...
Other than the final coaches ranking, what value do any of the rankings have?

1. Generate discussion.
2. Piss off people that have enough time on their hands to be pissed off about meaningless rankings.
jrd23psu said:
I understand that these rankings are compiled via algorithms but there is no substitute for the human element in wrestling. A computer will never be as good of a predictor of wrestling than a human with wrestling knowledge.
Click to expand...
The substitute, if possible, would be more matches. The algorithm was developed for chess, where they get a lot more matches.

I can't believe how hung up people get on these. Seriously, I guarantee you there are people sitting around today upping their blood pressure meds because their guy isn't "ranked" where they think they should be. If for no other reason, that's why I hope Andegre never tries to tweak the math.

Are there not enough ranking services out there that have the same "correct" information, that people need to see this one look just like all the others?
 
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I posted this elsewhere, but will repeat here:

I took a peek at your Hodge rankings and noted Heil at #6 and Nickal at #8. Then I saw your criteria. Question: Why were neither anticipated falls or bonus victories considered? Since falls and dominance are major factors in the Hodge, I would have thought they would be factored into the equation. Just asking.
 
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Andegre provides a service to fans, uniquely different from the "human" rankings. Understanding, at least a little bit, about the modified Elo ranking system (see the Elo system, described, in the link below), is what would be recommended.

Then all would know the benefits and shortcomings of this tool. Personally, imo, it's awesome!!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system
 
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psumacw said:
how do we quantify the wrestling strength, speed, flexibility, and positioning that we can see with our eyes and feed that into a computer so that it has the same information that we have?
Click to expand...

That's my point, we can't. That's the human element.
 
Thanks for the update. The site is an awesome reference. Who did Wrestler X lose to over the last two years, and how badly? There. Wins? There. The projections are fun too, but I love the site for the reference. And the links to some videos and the match track addition are neat.

Keep up the good work.

As for the OSU-PSU projections, the match will rest on several key matches that you have tilting to the Nuts. OK, could happen. And folks have to consider that Nato will return. The matchup doesn't consider that. OSU could well lose this match before Zain hits the mat. If We can somehow pull out wins at 133 and 141. Splitting them means if we hold serve we should win. Losing both means we need bonus points to come up the rest of the way.
 
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jrd23psu said:
That's my point, we can't. That's the human element.
Click to expand...

We can't... yet. The way technology is advancing it's only a matter of time before we can just set up some motion capture cameras, capture all of that information, and feed it into a computer.
 
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RoarLions1 said:
And the folks that use the "human element" for their rankings don't take a beating too? Too many critics. Read 'em, enjoy 'em, discuss 'em, move on.
Click to expand...

I won't be happy until ALL of the rankings are EXACTLY correct, meaning that they agree with what I think they should be. :D

Until then I won't worry much about rankings, just results.
 
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Thanks Andegre, it's great to see the site improve a each year. I have a pretty good idea how much work you put into it.

Like TomSC I'm curious about your Hodge Watch criteria because it does seem odd that Heil sits that high when his only realistic chance is to be the only undefeated wrestler, making me wonder if dominance--an explicit Hodge criterion--isn't adequately represented within your 'dual strength' and 'wrestler rating' criteria.
 
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I posted this response on the HR board, but I believe all questions above are addressed...

--------------------------------------
I'll try to answer a few of the questions/concerns in the thread....

Wilcke has moved to 197, don't know how I missed that.

Yes, it's only as good as the data that's coming in...which is all of the wrestlers division I matches. Can't get more than that.

Re: head-to-head folkstyle results, yes, those are included in the rankings, if they weren't, there wouldn't be anything to go against, since I'd have no data. Now, are head-to-head matches WEIGHTED differently, no. That's reserved for the prediction engine (which unfortunately did not get an update this offseason because I was too busy with other stuff for the site).

Re: Algorithm, if anyone's familiar with the rating system, or online gaming rating systems, it takes TIME (aka matches) to continually build up a wrestlers rating. The more matches a wrestler has, the more "weight" his rating has. Even if a wrestler (young/new guy) has beaten someone that is higher than them, it doesn't mean they'll get ranked above them, in this system. That win(s) definitely give an additional boost in their rating, but that other wrestler has already had MORE big wins prior to that, which is why their rating is still higher.

Also, these rankings are exactly the same as last year's final rankings, just with seniors removed. Since they don't have any results yet this season, there's no possible way for them to move up or down. This is merely reflecting the weight changes, along with the seniors being removed.

Re: Hodge rankings, since the Hodge is on a yearly basis, and based on the dominance during that season, there are no matches yet this season so the only thing it has to go on (in MY system), is their rating. So right now, it's basically displaying the top X guys, regardless of weight. As soon as matches start coming in, it will start factoring in "dominance" stuff, ie Falls, TFs, etc.

I understand that not everyone agrees with these, hell, I don't agree with some of them. But they keep human bias, and our "eyes" out of the equation and let the math do the work.

For the future, I'm working on a blog post right now to analyze the rankings of every season in WrestleStat, and how that compares to the wrestlers' finish for each season. The current version of the algorithm has only been used for 1 season 2016-2017), but reprocessed all results for EVERY season specifically for this test. I did not change any previous rankings in the database since those were already calculated and released. I want to show the validity/non-validity of the CURRENT algorithm to either raise/lower the comfort level with the rankings. If it ends up being low, or realize the final season rankings are way off from reality, then I'll look into tweaking the algorithm more. Honestly, I should probably be doing that every offseason anyway because more data should help me tailor the algorithm better specifically for wrestling.

Thanks for checking these out everyone. I do appreciate both the positive and negative feedback. I just never anticipated the amount of feedback I've received since yesterday, because it's WAY more than usual.

Keep commenting!
 
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Chickenman Testa said:
These rankings early in the season remind me of the classic Sagarin football ratings
Click to expand...
Sagarin still has Ohio State number 2. It has PSU #2 in the recent results poll. Considering that Ohio State lost to Oklahoma in game #2 of the season and PSU has been stronger in the recent games, how is Ohio State #2? Makes no sense.

Which is why you play the game or wrestle the match. Polls be it human or computer make for a good discussion. PSU wins tomorrow, they will be #2 in Sagarin.
 
Lyons212 said:
Sagarin still has Ohio State number 2. It has PSU #2 in the recent results poll. Considering that Ohio State lost to Oklahoma in game #2 of the season and PSU has been stronger in the recent games, how is Ohio State #2? Makes no sense.
Click to expand...

Ohio State has been stronger in recent games, at least by scoring margin. Their last five games have been 38-7, 54-21, 56-0, 62-14, and 56-14. The computers like that.
 
BruceK-PSU83 said:
It's harmless, but the shortcomings appear to far exceed the benefits.
Click to expand...
I disagree strongly (about the shortcomings far exceeding the benefits), and that's ok. Wrestlestat's is my #1 source for information for a pre-NCAA competition that me and several others here participate in. This past March, we won!! I believe the "benefits" of this model are significant.
 
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As has been already commented, I love wrestestats records and results against same opponents in dual meet match-ups. Great source of information!!
 
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psumacw said:
We can't... yet. The way technology is advancing it's only a matter of time before we can just set up some motion capture cameras, capture all of that information, and feed it into a computer.
Click to expand...
I've been thinking that this is the way figure skating should go for years. No reason you couldn't strap some sensors on to measure things like tightness of spins, body positions for jumps, etc. Just as soon as they take the subjectivity out of it, I still won't watch. But, it would be cool.
 
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