Wrestlestat Tournament Simulation

jmadden1998 · Friday at 3:02 PM

I ran every match through the wrestlestat comparison tool and this is how it came out.

125

1. Figueroa
2. Ramos
3. Strickenberger
4. Spratley
5. Robinson
6. Lilledahl
7. Smith
8. Ventresca

Lilledahl loses to Figs in the semis and loses to Spratley in the consi semis.

133

1. Bouzakis
2. Byrd
3. Ayala
4. Bailey
5. Romney
6. McGonagle
7. Serrano
8. Frost

Davis loses to Byrd in the quarters and loses to McGonagle in the R12

141

1. Mendez
2. Hardy
3. Bartlett
4. Jamison
5. Alirez
6. Happel
7. Tagg
8. Frost

Bartlett loses to Mendez in semis

149

1. Henson
2. Lovett
3. Van Ness
4. McNeil
5. Wasilewski
6. Parco
7. Webster
8. Johnson

Van Ness loses to Lovett in semis

157

1. Shapiro
2. Kasak
3. Blaze
4. Zerban
5. Downey
6. Hipolito
7. Teemer
8. Taylor

165

1. Mesenbrink
2. Caliendo
3. Hall
4. Barraclough
5. Ramirez
6. Minto
7. Mantanona
8. Amine

174

1. Hamiti
2. O'Toole
3. Haines
4. Thompson
5. Kennedy
6. Pinto
7. Ruiz
8. Gaitan

Haines loses to Hamiti in semis

184

1. Keckeisen
2. Starocci
3. Plott
4. McEnelly
5. Berge
6. Arnold
7. Allred
8. Foca

197

1. Cardenas
2. Buchanan
3. Beard
4. Barr
5. Ferrari
6. Salazar
7. Glazier
8. Mac Stout

Barr loses to Beard in the quarters.

285

1. Steveson
2. Hendrickson
3. Kerkvliet
4. Mullen
5. Schultz
6. Trephan
7. Trumble
8. Pitzer

Kerk loses to Hendrickson in the semis

Top 10 Team Scores (keep in mind wrestlestat predicts very few bonus points)

1. Penn St 138.5
2. Okie St 87.5
3. Iowa 85
4. Nebraska 73
5. VA Tech 58.5
6. Ohio St 55.5
7. Cornell 49.5
8. Minnesota 49
9. Northern Iowa 46.5
10. Arizona St 34

dicemen99 · Friday at 3:12 PM

Using Wrestlestat for match predictions is a sign you have waaaaay to much time on your hands. And are good with wasting it.

Rankings, it's as good as most any algorithm, but H-T-H results it's probably STILL picking DT to beat Dake.

Andrege probably screwed that function of the site up when he tweaked the algorithm to ensure Spencer was predicted to beat every wrestler up to the 174 weight class shortly after his first career match.

PSU Mike · Friday at 3:15 PM

We’re doomed.

jmadden1998 · Friday at 3:22 PM

dicemen99 said:
Using Wrestlestat for match predictions is a sign you have waaaaay to much time on your hands. And are good with wasting it.

Rankings, it's as good as most any algorithm, but H-T-H results it's probably STILL picking DT to beat Dake.

Andrege probably screwed that function of the site up when he tweaked the algorithm to ensure Spencer was predicted to beat every wrestler up to the 174 weight class shortly after his first career match.

Sleepylion · Friday at 3:23 PM

I have tickets for sale... not point in showing up now.

Delcolion915 · Friday at 3:44 PM

jmadden1998 said:
I ran every match through the wrestlestat comparison tool and this is how it came out.

125

1. Figueroa
2. Ramos
3. Strickenberger
4. Spratley
5. Robinson
6. Lilledahl
7. Smith
8. Ventresca

Lilledahl loses to Figs in the semis and loses to Spratley in the consi semis.

133

1. Bouzakis
2. Byrd
3. Ayala
4. Bailey
5. Romney
6. McGonagle
7. Serrano
8. Frost

Davis loses to Byrd in the quarters and loses to McGonagle in the R12

141

1. Mendez
2. Hardy
3. Bartlett
4. Jamison
5. Alirez
6. Happel
7. Tagg
8. Frost

Bartlett loses to Mendez in semis

149

1. Henson
2. Lovett
3. Van Ness
4. McNeil
5. Wasilewski
6. Parco
7. Webster
8. Johnson

Van Ness loses to Lovett in semis

157

1. Shapiro
2. Kasak
3. Blaze
4. Zerban
5. Downey
6. Hipolito
7. Teemer
8. Taylor

165

1. Mesenbrink
2. Caliendo
3. Hall
4. Barraclough
5. Ramirez
6. Minto
7. Mantanona
8. Amine

174

1. Hamiti
2. O'Toole
3. Haines
4. Thompson
5. Kennedy
6. Pinto
7. Ruiz
8. Gaitan

Haines loses to Hamiti in semis

184

1. Keckeisen
2. Starocci
3. Plott
4. McEnelly
5. Berge
6. Arnold
7. Allred
8. Foca

197

1. Cardenas
2. Buchanan
3. Beard
4. Barr
5. Ferrari
6. Salazar
7. Glazier
8. Mac Stout

Barr loses to Beard in the quarters.

285

1. Steveson
2. Hendrickson
3. Kerkvliet
4. Mullen
5. Schultz
6. Trephan
7. Trumble
8. Pitzer

Kerk loses to Hendrickson in the semis

Top 10 Team Scores (keep in mind wrestlestat predicts very few bonus points)

1. Penn St 138.5
2. Okie St 87.5
3. Iowa 85
4. Nebraska 73
5. VA Tech 58.5
6. Ohio St 55.5
7. Cornell 49.5
8. Minnesota 49
9. Northern Iowa 46.5
10. Arizona St 34

Your post lost credibility at the term "Wrestlestat"

Pennstate1985 · Friday at 3:49 PM

So one champ and 138 points? I like Wrestlestat. Visit the site nearly every day, but would never use it to replace the human eye.

PSUwrestling · Friday at 3:53 PM

jmadden1998 said:
View embedded media

Well played 🙌🏾

jmadden1998 · Friday at 4:00 PM

Delcolion915 said:
Your post lost credibility at the term "Wrestlestat"

El-Jefe · Friday at 4:04 PM

jmadden1998 said:
133

1. Bouzakis

diggerpup · Friday at 4:07 PM

jmadden1998 said:
I ran every match through the wrestlestat comparison tool and this is how it came out.

125

1. Figueroa
2. Ramos
3. Strickenberger
4. Spratley
5. Robinson
6. Lilledahl
7. Smith
8. Ventresca

Lilledahl loses to Figs in the semis and loses to Spratley in the consi semis.

133

1. Bouzakis
2. Byrd
3. Ayala
4. Bailey
5. Romney
6. McGonagle
7. Serrano
8. Frost

Davis loses to Byrd in the quarters and loses to McGonagle in the R12

141

1. Mendez
2. Hardy
3. Bartlett
4. Jamison
5. Alirez
6. Happel
7. Tagg
8. Frost

Bartlett loses to Mendez in semis

149

1. Henson
2. Lovett
3. Van Ness
4. McNeil
5. Wasilewski
6. Parco
7. Webster
8. Johnson

Van Ness loses to Lovett in semis

157

1. Shapiro
2. Kasak
3. Blaze
4. Zerban
5. Downey
6. Hipolito
7. Teemer
8. Taylor

165

1. Mesenbrink
2. Caliendo
3. Hall
4. Barraclough
5. Ramirez
6. Minto
7. Mantanona
8. Amine

174

1. Hamiti
2. O'Toole
3. Haines
4. Thompson
5. Kennedy
6. Pinto
7. Ruiz
8. Gaitan

Haines loses to Hamiti in semis

184

1. Keckeisen
2. Starocci
3. Plott
4. McEnelly
5. Berge
6. Arnold
7. Allred
8. Foca

197

1. Cardenas
2. Buchanan
3. Beard
4. Barr
5. Ferrari
6. Salazar
7. Glazier
8. Mac Stout

Barr loses to Beard in the quarters.

285

1. Steveson
2. Hendrickson
3. Kerkvliet
4. Mullen
5. Schultz
6. Trephan
7. Trumble
8. Pitzer

Kerk loses to Hendrickson in the semis

Top 10 Team Scores (keep in mind wrestlestat predicts very few bonus points)

1. Penn St 138.5
2. Okie St 87.5
3. Iowa 85
4. Nebraska 73
5. VA Tech 58.5
6. Ohio St 55.5
7. Cornell 49.5
8. Minnesota 49
9. Northern Iowa 46.5
10. Arizona St 34

That's a complete dumpster fire of an NCAA for PSU.
Would only be 1 champ, would only be 3 finalists ....
... and PSU still wins by 50+

PSUbluTX · Friday at 4:10 PM

jmadden1998 said:
I ran every match through the wrestlestat comparison tool and this is how it came out.

125

1. Figueroa
2. Ramos
3. Strickenberger
4. Spratley
5. Robinson
6. Lilledahl
7. Smith
8. Ventresca

Lilledahl loses to Figs in the semis and loses to Spratley in the consi semis.

133

1. Bouzakis
2. Byrd
3. Ayala
4. Bailey
5. Romney
6. McGonagle
7. Serrano
8. Frost

Davis loses to Byrd in the quarters and loses to McGonagle in the R12

141

1. Mendez
2. Hardy
3. Bartlett
4. Jamison
5. Alirez
6. Happel
7. Tagg
8. Frost

Bartlett loses to Mendez in semis

149

1. Henson
2. Lovett
3. Van Ness
4. McNeil
5. Wasilewski
6. Parco
7. Webster
8. Johnson

Van Ness loses to Lovett in semis

157

1. Shapiro
2. Kasak
3. Blaze
4. Zerban
5. Downey
6. Hipolito
7. Teemer
8. Taylor

165

1. Mesenbrink
2. Caliendo
3. Hall
4. Barraclough
5. Ramirez
6. Minto
7. Mantanona
8. Amine

174

1. Hamiti
2. O'Toole
3. Haines
4. Thompson
5. Kennedy
6. Pinto
7. Ruiz
8. Gaitan

Haines loses to Hamiti in semis

184

1. Keckeisen
2. Starocci
3. Plott
4. McEnelly
5. Berge
6. Arnold
7. Allred
8. Foca

197

1. Cardenas
2. Buchanan
3. Beard
4. Barr
5. Ferrari
6. Salazar
7. Glazier
8. Mac Stout

Barr loses to Beard in the quarters.

285

1. Steveson
2. Hendrickson
3. Kerkvliet
4. Mullen
5. Schultz
6. Trephan
7. Trumble
8. Pitzer

Kerk loses to Hendrickson in the semis

Top 10 Team Scores (keep in mind wrestlestat predicts very few bonus points)

1. Penn St 138.5
2. Okie St 87.5
3. Iowa 85
4. Nebraska 73
5. VA Tech 58.5
6. Ohio St 55.5
7. Cornell 49.5
8. Minnesota 49
9. Northern Iowa 46.5
10. Arizona St 34

Can’t believe wrestlestat has Caliendo losing to Mesenbrink.

jmadden1998 · Friday at 4:18 PM

PSUbluTX said:
Can’t believe wrestlestat has Caliendo losing to Mesenbrink.

Prediction is 10-8.

eddy line · Friday at 4:59 PM

diggerpup said:
That's a complete dumpster fire of an NCAA for PSU.
Would only be 1 champ, would only be 3 finalists ....
... and PSU still wins by 50+

And 9 AAs.

mcpat · Friday at 5:04 PM

Always appreciate you doing this, regardless of what it spits out.

Used2BEerie · Friday at 6:12 PM

mcpat said:
Always appreciate you doing this, regardless of what it spits out.

Sounds like what I said to some dates over the years. 😂

LOTOlion · Friday at 6:16 PM

Wombat poo is cube shaped.

SlipperyPete12 · Friday at 6:29 PM

Lyons212 · Friday at 6:48 PM

I like the information in wrestlestat, some of the predictions make no sense. For example, I would love an explanation as to why WrestleStat predicts Beard to beat Barr? Barr majored Beard. Barr has a much better record against common opponents than Beard. Those results against common opponents are better. Unless WrestleStat knows Barr will have the flu the day he wrestles Beard, no idea how WrestleStat predicts Beard to beat Barr.

Obviously Beard could win, we just saw some Webster beat Van Ness. It is not something an algorithm should be predicting.

mcpat · Friday at 6:54 PM

Lyons212 said:
I like the information in wrestlestat, some of the predictions make no sense. For example, I would love an explanation as to why WrestleStat predicts Beard to beat Barr? Barr majored Beard. Barr has a much better record against common opponents than Beard. Those results against common opponents are better. Unless WrestleStat knows Barr will have the flu the day he wrestles Beard, no idea how WrestleStat predicts Beard to beat Barr.

Obviously Beard could win, we just saw some Webster beat Van Ness. It is not something an algorithm should be predicting.

It’s like autocorrect. Helpful at times; but infuriatingly incorrect too often.

AgSurfer · Friday at 7:05 PM

We watched Iowa implode last weekend at the Big 10 tournament. Don’t see them having a sudden revival two weeks later. They peaked against Ok State and are on their typical downhill slide since then. I think 4th to 6th is more likely as their team placement.

Pennstate1985 · Friday at 7:07 PM

AgSurfer said:
We watched Iowa implode last weekend at the Big 10 tournament. Don’t see them having a sudden revival two weeks later. They peaked against Ok State and are on their typical downhill slide since then. I think 4th to 6th is more likely as their team placement.

We like our dual meets.

orange nole · Friday at 7:07 PM

What’s the highest number of total losses Penn State has had at an NCAA tournament under Cael? Granted, some of those years only had eight scoring wrestlers haha. Last year they lost nine total matches I believe. This simulation has 13.

ClarkstonMark · Friday at 7:09 PM

Lyons212 said:
I like the information in wrestlestat, some of the predictions make no sense. For example, I would love an explanation as to why WrestleStat predicts Beard to beat Barr? Barr majored Beard. Barr has a much better record against common opponents than Beard. Those results against common opponents are better. Unless WrestleStat knows Barr will have the flu the day he wrestles Beard, no idea how WrestleStat predicts Beard to beat Barr.

Obviously Beard could win, we just saw some Webster beat Van Ness. It is not something an algorithm should be predicting.

not just once, but also in 3rd place bout

Pitchfork Rebel · Friday at 7:19 PM

AgSurfer said:
We watched Iowa implode last weekend at the Big 10 tournament. Don’t see them having a sudden revival two weeks later. They peaked against Ok State and are on their typical downhill slide since then. I think 4th to 6th is more likely as their team placement.

By now, Brands has them wondering why the hell they ever decided to be wrestlers.

https://thyblackman.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/beatings-will-continue-until-morale-improves-2014.png

yakrider · Friday at 7:28 PM

this prediction could possibly happen, but it has to be the worse case scenario possible and they still win by 50+. Carter losing seems like the most unlikely of these unlikely predictions.

District four · Friday at 7:32 PM

Can someone make sure to save this so we can compare the actual results after it's over I'm interested to see how far it's off lmfao

Delcolion915 · Friday at 8:28 PM

yakrider said:
this prediction could possibly happen, but it has to be the worse case scenario possible and they still win by 50+. Carter losing seems like the most unlikely of these unlikely predictions.

Wrestle stat had him dropping a spot, literally after every win a few years ago.

Sleepylion · Friday at 8:34 PM

This is how the scientific process works... Have a hypothesis, test it, find out it was wrong.

tullfan68 · 2025-03-15T12:26:42-0400

lol if I had a penny for every stat wrong predict I would be a billionaire!

BeachJ02 · 2025-03-15T12:52:47-0400

Wrestlestat doesnt take into account Caels magic juice, 🤣

SLUPSU · 2025-03-15T13:54:06-0400

Lyons212 said:
I like the information in wrestlestat, some of the predictions make no sense. For example, I would love an explanation as to why WrestleStat predicts Beard to beat Barr? Barr majored Beard. Barr has a much better record against common opponents than Beard. Those results against common opponents are better. Unless WrestleStat knows Barr will have the flu the day he wrestles Beard, no idea how WrestleStat predicts Beard to beat Barr.

Obviously Beard could win, we just saw some Webster beat Van Ness. It is not something an algorithm should be predicting.

This is a great response to show that @jmadden1998 is just trolling.

Random4598375 · 2025-03-15T13:56:47-0400

yakrider said:
this prediction could possibly happen, but it has to be the worse case scenario possible and they still win by 50+. Carter losing seems like the most unlikely of these unlikely predictions.

Bouzakis winning is the most off the wall prediction. He’s a fringe AA who’s going to lose his spot to Davino next season. LOL.

diggerpup · 2025-03-15T15:48:25-0400

District four said:
Can someone make sure to save this so we can compare the actual results after it's over I'm interested to see how far it's off lmfao

Sure thing.
After NCAAs, you can find the simulation at this link: