Did you think we were headed for economic collapse before the tarrifs? I think you did so in your view and what you posted earlier is the whole economy is going to fall off a cliff and I guess nothing is going to stop that.
Yes, I did. The tariffs are merely making us face reality -- that we can't go on as we were. Debt payments are now well over the military budget, and rising. Doing anything about this problem to avert a financial crisis comes with a price tag. The recent drop in equities is just a start. It is showing what will happen.
With the tariffs Trump is realizing that the bleeding of capital -- deficit spending essentially financed through a trade deficit -- cannot go on. He chose an approach that might incentivize business to relocate to this country. He hopes that foreign sources might bear some of the cost. (Actually, they already do, by financing our debt through buying treasuries.). In the end the American Consumer will probably pay a "tax" through higher prices on imported goods. The consumer is already getting taxed through inflation -- pressure driven up by deficit spending without private sector production growth.
Another way to have a tax increase would be to collect more through the IRS. This would have the effect of taking money out of the private sector economy and causing a recession/depression. It's the least inflationary solution, and one that I kind of expected a decade ago. In fact when I retired I got financial advice that suggested I should work down deferred-tax retirement accounts as quickly as possible, because taxes were sure to increase. Then we got Trump #1 -- a major kicking of the can down the road. More sugar for our drug addiction and a harder time coming clean. The advice made even more sense provided the money went into a Roth.
Then we had the Biden Administration / Pelosi Congress and all of the malfeasance that went into a massive increase in federal spending. Now we REALLY kicked the can, to the point that someone like me would say that we are past the point of return (without a very significant cost in living standards). Supporters of that side are applauding the sugar high.
It's now routine for each side to claim they are better because they kicked the can harder.
This is how I see it. It's why I know that the S&P is living on borrowed time. Maybe some can make money by timing the market and getting out before the crash. Good luck to them. The government has a way of kicking the can. They have delayed and delayed and now reasonable people see that it's an equation with no positive value solution.
PS: We should always look at stock index valuations on an inflation-adjusted basis. That is a little better at telling the true story. You can have the market be flat, as it was during the 70s, and yet lose your shirt. That is still a "crash."
