Roar’s Annual Big Ten Seeding Review
Welcome to my annual attempt at making sense of the regular season conference results (duals DO matter!). Seems to me this exercise gets tougher each year, though I personally take that as a challenge. When the Big Ten added Rutgers and Maryland in 2015, the conference added one dual meet to the schedule for all teams, making it nine each regular season. Wrestling ALL conference duals meant a wrestler would get nine of thirteen possible opponents. Not horrible. That lasted six years. Remember, just before Rutgers and Maryland were added the number of conference duals was eight, meaning eight of 11 possible opponents. Again, not horrible, pretty good in fact. In 2022, the matrix changed again, in the wrong direction in my opinion, and we’re back at eight conference duals. Even if the impossible happened and all 140 starters in the conference wrestled every dual, only eight of 13 opponents would be wrestled. These facts make seeding hard.
Only conference dual results are used to start, though occasionally I’ll sneak in a comment about tournament results between Big Ten foes.
As in the past couple of years, I will try to get two weight classes done per day, maybe as many as three. It is possible that I made a mistake or two (or three or four, and so on) with records, etc. Please be gentle. Here’s 125 to start.
125
#1: Matt Ramos (PUR, 8-0)
#2: Drake Ayala (IA, 5-2)
#3: Eric Barnett (WIS, 6-2)
#4: Braeden Davis (PSU, 6-2)
#5: Micheal DeAugustino (MICH, 5-2)
#6: Patrick McKee (MINN, 4-3)
#7: Caleb Smith (NEB, 4-3)
#8: Brendon McCrone (tOSU, 5-2)
#9: Dean Peterson (RUT, 4-4)
#10 Tristan Lujan (MSU, 1-6)
#11: Justin Cardani (ILL, 2-5)
#12: Massey Odiotti (NU, 2-6)
#13: Tommy Capul (MD, 1-7)
#14: Blaine Frazier (IND, 0-4)
Matt Ramos (PUR) is the easy pick for the top seed, going 8-0. A loss to Caleb Smith (NEB) at Cliff Keen has no bearing except as a tie-breaker should I need it. After that, the weight gets interesting, just as it did on the national scene. 125 is a wide open weight class. I was ready to pencil in Eric Barnett (WIS) at #2 and had Patrick McKee (MINN) all the way down to #9 last Friday morning. Then on Friday evening McKee pinned Barnett in Minny’s last dual, and the topsy-turvy nature of 125 continued. The Drake Ayala (IA) vs Barnett match didn’t happen in Iowa’s last dual as Ayala didn’t go. This would have gone a LONG way towards settling a few things. So we’re left with five guys with two losses and two guys with three losses that won against the guys with two losses. Get the picture? It’s not pretty.
Ayala’s losses are to top seed Ramos and one of the guys with two losses, Micheal DeAugustino (MICH), so I’m seeding him #2, by a hair. It’s a toss-up for the next three spots. DeAugustino beat Ayala, but lost to Smith and Davis. Davis beat DeAugustino, but lost to Ayala and Smith. Barnett beat Smith, but lost to Ramos and McKee. McCrone has no great wins and lost to DeAugustino and Barnett. Even 4-3 Smith could be in this mix, beating Davis and DeAugustino, and beating top seed Ramos at an early season tourney (I know, doesn’t count), but losing to Barnett, McKee and Ayala. McKee's loss to Dean Peterson (RUT) hurt his seed. I like Barnett for #3. The Ramos loss is the best loss of the bunch…though not much to go on, I know.
It’s #4 Davis next with the HTH win over #5 DeAugustino. #6 McKee gets the nod over #7 Smith with a HTH win, as both guys get seeded above 2-loss and #8 McCrone whose best win is HTH against #9 Dean Peterson (RUT). Peterson does have a win versus McKee, but also four conference losses including the one to McCrone. #10 through #14 are a bit of a mess too. I’m going #10 Tristan Lujan (MSU) with a HTH win over #11 Justin Cardani (ILL). #12 Massey Odiotti (NU) has wins over the last two seeds, #13 Tommy Capul (MD) and #14 Blaine Frazier (IND).
That was painful! I am confident the Big Ten and I won’t agree. At least I put my reasoning in black and white, so it’s far more transparent.