Based on the seeds Iowa would have been a big favorite for the 2020 team title an IMHO they probably would have won. However, based on previous results and also more recent results PSU would have been in the hunt. All if would have taken are 1 or 2 breakdowns by Iowa like Lee did this year and Marinelli did most years at NCAAs. Definitely not out of the realm of possibility.
AS THE BIRD TURNS (IOWA STUFF)
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That's exactly what a Troll would say.
Damn. Your feelings got hurt.
First, I assume a full field competition. The fact of the matter is Iowa's 2021 production was against a diminished field. Since 2010 they haven't cracked a 100 points against a full field tournament. Mental calisthenics are not required to assume Iowa falls short of a 100. Nor are they required to get them over a 100, but to get them over 100 you must assume they will out-perform anything they have done for a decade and a half.
Second, Murin is the 2020 141 pounder, not Eierman. Young is year younger and isn't contributing much.
Yeah, I get it. Lugo was going to outplace his career by leaps and bounds because Iowa fans wanted him to. Like the Brands boys have this wonderful track record of development of kids above 133 pounds.
Third, are you telling me Penn State doesn't have a history of outpacing their Big10 performance?
Fourth, PSU's total baffles you? Really? The math is straight forward and accurate. Get a calculator out and total them up. Feel free to explain to me which of the Penn State placements are out of realistic possibilities?
Once you take your black and yellow goggles off and use as much objective data as possible b4 applying some subjective bias it is rather easy to see 2020 playing out in a manner described by my post.
Hell, for Iowa to have beaten PSU the Hawks would have had to accomplish a whole bunch things accumulatively that they haven't been capable of achieving singularly for a long time.
Like I said, pathetic "woe is me."
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For Iowa fans the Big10s are the quasi national championship. They believe a team can only finish lower at nationals with the larger more talented field. As they do often.
Improving in two weeks from Bigs to Nationals just doesn't make sense, yet we prove it virtually every single year at both the individual and team levels.
This lack of understanding starts at the top, for "peaking is only a frame of mind".
Improving in two weeks from Bigs to Nationals just doesn't make sense, yet we prove it virtually every single year at both the individual and team levels.
This lack of understanding starts at the top, for "peaking is only a frame of mind".
It’s not just the peaking - it’s the composition of the teams.
A team depending on several top ranked studs is less impacted by the bigger field than a team with more (but lesser-ranked) scorers. Our top guys get seeded high and pretty much wrestle to seed; their middle-ranked guys get pushed down the seeding ladder as the bigger field is brought in. A classic case is someone like Micah Jordan or Will Lewan. They finish high up at Big 10s with less competition and score major points. When NCAAs rolls around, Nolf will still be seeded 1 and win, but Jordan will go from 2nd place points to 7th or so - huge point difference even if he wrestled to seed.
Lugo might have won Big 10s (did he?), but not all Big 10 champs/weights are created equal when a larger field comes in.
The concept that Iowa was the superior team is bullshyt. Iowa won the Big10s and the dual, but the dual was won because Kemerer upset Markie. If the favored 174 pound wrestler wins the match PSU wins the dual.
In my scenario Iowa has 7AAs with 2 in the finals. A greatly superior Iowa performance compared to their baseline.
Penn State has 6 AAs with 5 in the finals and 4 champs. Nothing extraordinary or reaching, a pretty typical PSU performance.
The more I look at this the more obvious it is that Penn State's 2020 team was the one that missed out on a championship trophy.
In my scenario Iowa has 7AAs with 2 in the finals. A greatly superior Iowa performance compared to their baseline.
Penn State has 6 AAs with 5 in the finals and 4 champs. Nothing extraordinary or reaching, a pretty typical PSU performance.
The more I look at this the more obvious it is that Penn State's 2020 team was the one that missed out on a championship trophy.
2017 and 2022 are two good examples of the point @nitlion6, and @mcpat are making.
In 2017 Pletcher, Rodriguez, Butcher, and Ryan combined to score 28.5 points to help OSU win the Big Ten Championship. At NCAAs, they combined for 4 points allowing our five champs to outscore their entire team. (Who said we needed 8 scoring wrestlers?)
In 2022 Michigan got a big boost when Micic, Rags, Bricki, and Storr combined for 42 points at Bigs. They finished in 2nd by 36.5 points at NCAAs when the same foursome combined for 8 points total.
That said, Iowa still had to be the betting favorite in 2020, IMO.
In 2017 Pletcher, Rodriguez, Butcher, and Ryan combined to score 28.5 points to help OSU win the Big Ten Championship. At NCAAs, they combined for 4 points allowing our five champs to outscore their entire team. (Who said we needed 8 scoring wrestlers?)
In 2022 Michigan got a big boost when Micic, Rags, Bricki, and Storr combined for 42 points at Bigs. They finished in 2nd by 36.5 points at NCAAs when the same foursome combined for 8 points total.
That said, Iowa still had to be the betting favorite in 2020, IMO.
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Agree. Seeing how they leaked major oil at nationals the next year (favored by about 50 and won by 16.5), we definitely had hope in 2020
Were they betting back then?
This is the most logical and reasonable response to a post I’ve read in a while ! Thank God for reason !!!!!
Because PSU actually has had a tournament similar to the one @nitlion6 is projecting. So while it's quite a homer prediction, at least there is some statistical and anecdotal evidence backing that PSU can pull something off like that. There have been quite a few (or many) moments in Cael era where it seems borderline stupid he can just keep getting what he needs to get it done at the big show. While 2020 would not have been like that (in my opinion at least), you're on a PSU board and you want to call out of fans for saying that?
2017 we scored 130 at Big Tens then 146.5. So he's not making it up out of thin air, we have scored drastically more at NCAAs than Big Tens. Bigger field, no byes, overall very favorable to a PSU 5 hammer team. Applying a similar proportion, PSU gets 120 off their 107 B1G points. We had a way better NCAA team that year. The reason we finished 4th at Big Tens is Nebraska and Ohio State had a bunch of scorers that wouldn't sniff AA, particularly Nebraska. We on the other hand got 1 from 125, 149, 157, 285 combined at Big Tens. Shak was looking better but he got nicked up against Warner but he obviously beat Warner also and also was right there with Schultz (the 3 and 4 seed)
You previously cited you were sure Marinelli and Kemerer were going to win that year, there's no anecdotal evidence whatsoever besides your own homer belief that Iowa at 165/174 outperforms PSU at those weights at NCAAs, especially Marinelli, who has made the semis once, including 0 times as a 1, 1, 3 seed. If anything, I think it's quite likely Marinelli gets knocked off in the quarters again by Evan Wick and Kemerer loses to Kutler (you guys do have a Lehigh issue sometimes!) If you're allowed to say Kemerer/Marinelli beats their PSU counterparts then PSU fans predicting a mass overperformance to win in 2020 isn't any more outlandish tbh.
Nobody is projecting, I think PSU fans were looking forward to NCAAs actually because we had hell of a squad for it and some great individual performances for us was going to happen.
I've said numerous times 2020 would have looked very similar to 2021. Iowa wins, Spencer was going to do his thing, they had a deep squad. PSU steals the individual show. I've seen many Iowa fans try to act like PSU wasn't even a lock for a trophy that year lol.
I haven't seen many people outside of Iowa award them the 2020 team title to be honest. I was pretty confident about Aaron Brooks. Still his "little boy" (per Zahid) form but I really don't see him ever losing to Hunter Bolen and Trent Hidlay (I think he beats Lujan)
I haven't seen many people outside of Iowa award them the 2020 team title to be honest. I was pretty confident about Aaron Brooks. Still his "little boy" (per Zahid) form but I really don't see him ever losing to Hunter Bolen and Trent Hidlay (I think he beats Lujan)
There were NO championships, therefore there were no champions.
😂😂
😂😂
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I forgot to mention lifetime PSU Alumni member, who just cast his Alumni Council ballot.
@HawkFan1986 is a good guy first of all .... but he always seems to just hit and run PSU homerism or "anti Iowa" posts on this board before going to GIA to call us hypocrites/know nothing fans. Not staying for a debate?
He spelled it out quite well. PSU is winning at 71% in the finals. Iowa is at 40%, with psu having a huge advantage in both 1st and second .
Psu shows up in the championships.
Psu shows up in the championships.
I thinks Goggles made a case for his guess, just as well as Iowa's guesses.
Psu overperforms, no one else does like they do. It seems Iowa underperforms. I look at the number of finalists they have had since Cael vs PSU then wins vs PSU.
If I had to guess Goggles is closer to what would have happened.
Huh? I don’t usually bad mouth anyone unless they are asking for it. Regardless of the forum I’m on. But thanks for the good guy comment haha.
No one can say for certain how the NCAA tournament would have gone but all signs pointed to Iowa winning 2020 one. The only ones who disagree appear to be on this site. Which I get. Even one of your projection posters broke it down and said Iowa was the likely winner.
So to call me out because Penn st normally does well at Ncaa, when Iowa was the heavy favorite seems a little like an illogical argument.
But there’s really no debate to be had either way when what we’re debating is hypothetical. To just assume Penn st was gonna win just because that’s what “we do” is simply not worth me arguing about, if that’s your point of contention. Results matter, the last result from psu that year was below average.
Sadly the NCAA tourney was cancelled. Those who believe psu would have found a way to overcome such heavy odds and win 2020, more power to you. We will have to agree to disagree my guys.
Thing is, a much bigger point of the original post you replied to is the absolute pathetic bulkshyt that spews from your homesite. It isn't all that uncommon to read about Iowa's 2020 championship. However, when some dumbassed clown bemoans that yeah millions died and millions more lost their economic well being, but other than those it was Spencer and Iowa wrestling that were the big losers in Covid. Then the phucking asshats on HR can't push back because, well they believe it's true.
You don't read on here about the lost 2020 championship. There isn't much bemoaning originating here on the subject, and even when some stupid shyt gets posted it is ignored. Not fed into a frenzy.
The second point to my post is if the 2020 tournament is looked at with history as a "what might have happened" component the idea that Iowa winning a championship is far from a foregone conclusion and maybe something the HR dimwits should probably get past. Spencer winning his third and a year later becoming a 4 timer is a very strong probability, but you know I thought Spencer winning a 4th this year was pretty much a done deal.
Where in NEPA? @hlstone and I are both in NEPA and always ready to talk wrestling!
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Yep! We could have a monthly meeting at my place. I'll cook.
My impression if you are cooking I want to be included. I am from central PA, but I love to talk wrestling. Or golf. Or grandkids. Or share travel stories.
How can it be an illogical argument when the actual tournaments happen , PSU wins? And as the fellow mentioned the Ivy League couldn't wrestle in the 2021s so that changed the scoring scenarios.
Iowa loses 7 points and psu picks up seven and PSU wins. It's not crazy to think it might affect things.
Again , he laid out a good scenario , I see it as plausible based on past performance of both programs.
NEPA you say? I was born and raised in Scranton. Now reside in Harrisburg
Yep, I switch to rooting for the individuals to place as high as possible once the team title is either clinched by PSU or clinched by another team.
I didn’t have anything to do with that post. I don’t think I responded to it or liked it in anyway, so I’m not sure why you quoted me and then brought it up. Anyone that denies Covid happened is a special brand of idiot. Wrestling is not more important than people’s lives, that shouldn’t need to be said.
Born in Sunbury, raised on the West Shore of Harrisburg until ready to start High School. Moved the Lake Lehman area, been here most of my life since then. Currently in Forty Fort with no plans to leave. My wife has different plans though…..
If I pee in the Susquehanna it eventually makes it down your way!
When we speculate we will often use past performance to evaluate a possibility. Michigan beat PSU by 0.5 at the Big Tens, PSU beat them by over thirty two weeks later. the NCAAs are a different animal. Check the past results for PSU at the Big Ten vs NCAAs. It's all a guess though.
But of we talk NCAAs, PSU has shown up better than any other squad since their title in 2011.
My original post had nothing to do with you. You responded to my original which started us talking.
Now that it is just you and me and I am no longer motivated by the HR dimwitted- Iowa winning in 2020 was the accepted theory. Spencer was going to win, DeSanto was going to add high placement points, Lugo was going to probably win, Young would place, Marinelli was going to win, Kemerer was going to win and Warner and Cassioppi were going to place high and who knows Murin and Assad might get a place. Iowa was going to have 4 champs and at least 8 AAs with 10 a distinct possibility. In 2020 Iowa was going to have themselves a Penn State post season.
In 2020 Iowa had not had a postseason anywhere near that performance since Gable's days nor have they had one since. If speculating, it makes a ton of sense to use all information available to postulate.
Once you start to look at 2020 knowing not only what was known prior to the tournament but also what is known about 3 post 2020 post-season performances it becomes much more difficult to simply conclude Iowa wins.
So, no Iowa wasn't going to steam roll the tournament and Penn State wasn't going to not show up.
Things that are fairly easy predictions:
Penn State was going to have more champions than Iowa.
Penn State was going to have more finalists than Iowa.
Marinelli was not going to win, was not going to be a finalist and was going to finish somewhere around 6th.
Murin and Assad were not going to place.
Young may have placed, but doubtful.
That means Iowa was going to have 7 AAs with Spencer and Kemerer in the finals.
Penn State has 6 AAs. 5 of PSU's AAs are probable finalists. RYB, N Lee, Joseph, Hall and Brooks. Shak the 6th.
As I have said, not a foregone conclusion.
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Yep. Then you responded to me and wrote three paragraphs about something I didn’t say. So unsurprisingly, I was confused and responded with questions. My response to you had nothing to do with what that clown over on GIA said about Covid.
But whatever I’m done with this.
You aren't done till we say you are done.
Lighten up most of the stuff over here is bad jokes, most of the time anyone is offended by something it's from not understanding some 10 year old stupid joke that very few even remember where it started.
I meant done talking in circles with nitlion guy not done with this forum in general. I have thick skin and enjoy some of the “bad jokes”, plus I don’t mind discussing something I care about with someone who has a different perspective than I do. Though I often need to remind myself of where I’m at and that I have very little chance of progressing the narrative in any way shape or form.
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