That’s some nifty revisionist history you’ve got there. You must have injured your back pulling this out of your butt.
How in the world can you say this when the very next year Iowa got first with well over 100 points and the only lineup change was pay Lugo out JE in. Lugo would have almost assuredly been the #1 seed. You’re past 15 year argument, though cute, is extraordinarily irrelevant simply due to the facts on how 9/10 of that lineup performed the very next year.
Honestly baffled how you get to 117 with psu when they finished 4th in the big tens that year. Seriously, I need to hire your mental gymnastics coach because I can’t comprehend how you got there.
Just admit things we’re likely not going to go your way that year. No need to extend yourself projecting another win for an already proud dynasty.
Well gang, I went back and did the math dating back to the year after our punt year in 2015. I would paste it here, but I ran it in a spreadsheet, and I am writing this using my phone. I will thus, only provide some highlights.
The data is quite compelling, here is what I found (2016-2023 excluding 2020):
Both Iowa and PSU consistently score more points in Big 10s than nationals, which is largely the result of a much smaller field sharing the available pool of points.
The lone exception was in 2017 where PSU scored a whooping 16.5 more points at nationals than Bigs. That performance was unprecedented.
Over the 8 year span, PSU is markedly more efficient at nationals seeing average point differential between Big10s and Nationals of -9.64 points. Iowa's average drop off on points is a differential of -32.2 points. PSU is 334% stronger than Iowa at nationals relative to Bigs. These numbers are very consistent through the period.
In that span PSU finished second at Bigs 4 times, and went on two improve and win nationals in 3 of those 4 years. The remainder we won both.
In those years Iowa finished first at Bigs only once. Of the remaining 6 years twice they dropped placement position at nationals, and 3 times they improved their placement by 1.
Now on to the two key COVID years in question:
In 2021 Iowa won B10s over PSU by 25.5 points, and Nationals by 15.5 points. The question in hand is what effect did the reduced field (no Ivy's) have on the outcome. Basic math says both PSU and Iowa would lose points to the Ivys, but no solid inference can be made that the correctly proportioned reduction in points would eliminate that gap, thus reversing the outcome.
In 2020 where Iowa had a very strong B10s, while PSU had by far their worst performance in the 8 year period. 157.5 vs 107. The argument here is our stable of prior champs plus Rasheed and others would return to Nationals "PSU Peak" form to take nationals.
To be fair there is zero doubt that PSU would have once again out-performed Iowa, but the trend data does not support closing the wide 49.5 point gap.
Net-net: Hawkfan1986 is "not" out to lunch believing Iowa would have won 2 championships in a row. This scenario is more likely than not, had COVID not occurred.
On the other side of the coin there is clear evidence PSU's relative performance is improved 3x better than Iowa from Bigs to Nationals. That is not a small differential, infact it is quite striking and consistent every year over that period. In one year PSU knocked it out of the park fast protecting a stellar Bigs result proving that 'the improbable can be done' by a Cael Sanderson coached team. PSU fans are not all wet postulating that the team would have once again out performed at nationals in 2020 and in 2021 with the Ivy's participating, the Lions 'could' have won both.
Both scenarios are plausible, but to be clear, the math leans Iowa!
