This is the kind of season a 12 team playoff could be very entertaining.
Bowl guru Jerry Palm now projects us to Citrus
- Thread starter Jerry
- Start date
This is the kind of season a 12 team playoff could be very entertaining.
Would that be wrong? Can anyone honestly say 2-loss LSU was more successful than 1-loss Tennessee? Which leads to 1-loss Tennessee than 1-loss UGA?
CCGs participants are only based on 67-75% of a teams schedule.
CCGs are not even set up to ensure the two most successful teams in a conference play each other.
I’m not sure people used lack of entertainment when debating against expansion.
There is the mindset of right/wrong as far as rewarding teams with an opportunity to be deemed champion.
Also, when expansion comes, the outcome those big games this past weekend take on a lot less meaning. Add that up through the season.
never said it was…
Significantly more games take on additional meaning than are devalued. The “every game is meaningful” is a total farce under the current setup. None of our games left mean shit currently, 12 team playoff means there’s pressure to not slip up because a loss knocks us out. Ditto for every two loss team in the country.
LSU would have been playing for a playoff spot instead of just hoping to be spoiler this weekend.
Here is my guess looking in to my crystal ball.
CFP:
Ohio State vs Michigan
Georgia vs Tennessee
Rose:
Penn State vs USC
Orange:
Alabama vs Clemson
Sugar:
TCU vs LSU
Cotton:
Utah vs Who Really Cares
CFP:
Ohio State vs Michigan
Georgia vs Tennessee
Rose:
Penn State vs USC
Orange:
Alabama vs Clemson
Sugar:
TCU vs LSU
Cotton:
Utah vs Who Really Cares
Hold everything! CFN still has us as NY6, namely the Cotton, against...<wait for it>...UCF! Link below.
collegefootballnews.com
Bowl Projections, College Football Playoff Predictions: Week 10
What are the bowl projections and the College Football Playoff calls after Week 10 of the college football season?
collegefootballnews.com
Id take that!!! Another tailgate at Jerry World.Hold everything! CFN still has us as NY6, namely the Cotton, against...<wait for it>...UCF! Link below.
Bowl Projections, College Football Playoff Predictions: Week 10
What are the bowl projections and the College Football Playoff calls after Week 10 of the college football season?
Hold everything! CFN still has us as NY6, namely the Cotton, against...<wait for it>...UCF! Link below.
Bowl Projections, College Football Playoff Predictions: Week 10
What are the bowl projections and the College Football Playoff calls after Week 10 of the college football season?
Interesting. I'd take it with one tweak. My wife is a Tulane alum. Assuming they beat UCF (Tulane is favored) this weekend the g5 slot is theirs to lose. Could probably talk my wife into a trip to the bowl if its Penn State/Tulane. Although I'd also never hear the end of it for the rest of my life if we lost, so maybe I shouldn't wish for that.
I remember our titanic Liberty Bowl match-up with Tulane in 1979.
We won 9-6...no touchdowns scored in the game.
I'd definitely rather play Tulane than UCF in the Cotton but would be happy to go to any NY6 bowl against any opponent.
It is the results of games for contenders that are important. Everyone that has lost no longer controlled their own fate. UGA likely has a loss now allowed, but that is because of how math works with four teams as opposed to the old two.
The more teams that are included, the less importance of having to win a game.
As far as MNC, they all mattered until losing to tOSU as 2nd loss. Those games wouldn’t have meant as much with the larger format.
So? The expansion to four allowed teams a 2nd chance. This expansion to 12 is going to allow teams with 3 (or maybe more) losses. How many chances do the participation trophy crowd want?
Bama lost their spot in that game while LSU lost their spot a couple weeks ago vs. Tennessee. Maybe LSU will get lucky like they did in ‘07 with cfb lack of quality teams.
If the favorites win out this season, by what semblance of right from wrong, should PSU be provided an opportunity at possibly playing whichever of tOSU/Michigan that comes out unbeaten, let alone the other 1-loss one. Or to put another way, why should either of them have to put up with PSU again?
Why should Georgia have to put up with Tennessee, and potentially Oregon, again as many projections are forecasting?
A lot of this will be cleared up in the next few weeks but as already noted here, it's really down to four bowls for PSU: Orange, Cotton, Rose, Citrus. If I had to rank them from most likely to least likely, I'd go with Citrus, Orange, Cotton, and Rose.
For PSU to get to the Rose Bowl (My preference since I live in Pasadena), the following would have to happen:
For PSU to get to the Rose Bowl (My preference since I live in Pasadena), the following would have to happen:
- PSU wins out
- OSU and Mich play a close game (hopefully OT)
- Winner of OSU-Mich wins B10 CG
- Illinois loses to Mich and hopefully another time - the latter has already happened
- Clemson loses a game - just happened
- Tenn vs Georgia is a blow out - It kinda was
- TCU loses a game
- Georgia wins out (and wins SEC).
- If all these scenarios happen, then Georgia and the Mich/OSU winner are the two definitely in the playoff but who gets the other two spots?
- 1-loss Pac 12 champ? UCLA/USC/Oregon? - who of the 3 has a marquee win out of conference? Maybe USC if they beat ND. Oregon getting killed by Georgia has to be considered.
- 1-loss Mich of OSU
- 1-loss Clemson ACC champ? - Unlikely since they just got whooped by ND and haven't been that convincing all season.
- 1-loss Tenn - beaten badly to Georgia but did beat Alabama and LSU
- 1-loss TCU as B12 champ? - No other B12 team has less than 2 losses so they could be the B12's only option. I dont think the CFP committee likes that conference much.
- Ultimately, I think Tenn is in because well, its the SEC. I think it would be between Mich/OSU loser and a 1-loss Pac 12 champ. I think to eliminate the Pac 12 as an option, a combination of the following has to happen to produce a 2-loss conference champ :
- Oregon has to lose once more (vs Utah, maybe in the Pac 12 CG)
- USC loses once more (either vs UCLA, vs ND, or Pac 12 CG)
- UCLA loses once more (vs USC or Pac 12 CG)
- Utah wins out and wins Pac 12 CG
- Alabama - if they win out, they finish 10-2.
- LSU - if LSU wins out but loses the SEC champ game, they finish 10-3, is that good enough?
- Ole Miss - if they win out, they finish 11-1 and can only play in the SEC champ game if LSU loses once more. If they lose vs Alabama, they will finish 10-2 and would have only beaten a decent Kentucky team.
- Clemson - They could finish 11-2 if they finish 11-1 and then lose the ACC champ game.
- TCU - if they go undefeated then lose the B12 CG, they would 12-1, the B12 would be obligated to the Sugar. If they lose a regular season and then the conference champ game, they would finish 11-2.
- UCLA/USC/Oregon - I group these together since there is a decent chance one of them finishes 10-2 or 11-2 (with a conference champ loss).
- PSU - gotta win out at 10-2. Bad loss to Mich, shoulda beat OSU but no ranked wins.
I'd take that since I live in Pasadena and could just roll out of bed to the game. I do think they'd mix up those CFP matchups to avoid the rematch in the semifinals. I am confused with the Utah choice. I assume you have them winning out but losing to USC in the Pac 12 CG. That would put them at 10-3 while an Oregon team would be at 10-2 (presumably due to a loss to Utah) and a 10-2 UCLA (presumably a loss to USC).
Notre Dame beating USC and USC winning out in conference takes care of a lot of potential hurdles for us.
It’s the way the math works. If it was still 2, they wouldn’t. The expansion to 4 allows for the increased opportunity to occur.
Adding more and more undeserving teams shouldn’t have been the result.
There were rematches with 2 teams as well. LSU shouldn't have had to face bama again in 2011. There were other teams with Bama's record.
Name another sport that structures its playoff in a way to minimize the opportunity for rematches...
Playoff rematches are: A) a lot less interesting since we've already seen the movie before; and B) puts the team that won the first game at a disadvantage.
Yes, there may be scenarios where it's unavoidable, but to the extent possible, the committee should try to avoid such matchups in my view.
Wow! A lot of info there! I do think we are headed to the Citrus. As much as I enjoyed that Bama loss it seems to have hurt our chances of a NY6 bowl.
I see the big fly in the ointment for a Rose berth being the Pac 12. Our best bet is Utah winning out and going to the Rose. I don't see that happening as I see Oregon beating them on their way to winning out. Maybe Oregon State beats Oregon in Corvalis. I don't see Notre Dump beating U$C. A one loss Pac 12 conf champ will beat out the loser of O$U and Mich for a playoff spot knocking us out of the Rose. Certainly favored nation U$C will get a playoff bid if it is them.
For the Orange we have Bama to deal with and I doubt they lose again.
I do think TCU loses at least once but not sure if that changes our path significantly.
Oh yeah, we do have to win out which we better do!
Not sure about our path to the Cotton but I am not excited about playing UCF or Tulane, yikes. Would rather play Ole Miss in the Citrus at that point.
You are right about Pac12. We sort of need some chaos there--Utah beating Oregon, UCLA getting upset, USC losing to UCLA, an upset in the conference champ game, etc.
I think Bama could lose to Ole Miss. I think the key is that We can't compete against both Ole Miss and Bama. It will help our case if TCU loses once then wins the conference because if they finish 11-2 (1 regular season loss and 1 CG loss) or 12-1 (CG loss), no way Cotton Bowl passes on getting a home-state team there.
Money-wise, the Cotton Bowl will be cheaper for me flying from the west coast. We went in 2019 and had a good time. However, my goal has been to see PSU play in all NY6 bowls. I've seen them in the Rose, Cotton, and Fiesta so seeing them in the Orange cross another off the list. The Peach Bowl typically matches 2 at-large teams so that may eventually happen. The Sugar Bowl will be the most difficult since its really only an option when it's a playoff site and PSU has to be in the playoff. Of course, with the playoff changing, this may be a moot endeavor.
The Pit Post Gaz has this. All assuming we win out. If UM and tOSU win out and have a really close B1G game, they could both be in the championship hunt and we get the Rose. And If we play Oregon, we get Bo Nix again! It looks like 3 of the 7 predict Citrus Bowl. Two predict the Rose. That leaves one for each of the Cotton and Orange.
Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: Citrus vs. Mississippi (Orlando, Fla.)
Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Rose vs. Oregon (Pasadana, Calif.)
Jerry Palm, CBS: Citrus vs. Mississippi
Brett McMurphy, Action Network: Orange vs. North Carolina (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
Bill Bender, Sporting News: Rose vs. Oregon
Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: Citrus vs. Florida
College Football News: Cotton vs. Central Florida (Arlington, Texas)
LSU’s upset of Alabama and Clemson’s upset loss to Notre Dame over the weekend have blown up the Orange Bowl consensus projectors have had for Penn State for most of the past month. As we’ve noted in this space several times before, the Orange Bowl has complicated tie-in math. The top-ranked team from the SEC or Big Ten heads there only after tie-ins to the Rose and Sugar Bowls have been satisfied. For a while, it looked like Penn State might be that team. Now? LSU seems to be in pole position with a fairly clear path to a 10-2 finish and appearance in the SEC title game.
So where does that leave Penn State? Hard to say. If Michigan and Ohio State both make the College Football Playoff — a more likely outcome now that Clemson has lost — that would open up a path to the Rose Bowl, as Penn State would likely be the top Big Ten team outside the playoff. If one of those two Big Ten East rivals miss the playoff, the Cotton Bowl would be the only other New Year’s Six option realistically available. To head there, Penn State would need to be ranked in the top 12 of the playoff rankings. As of this writing, they’re 15th, so they have some work to do to reach eligibility. The good news is that — barring another loss — James Franklin’s squad probably can’t fall below the Citrus Bowl as the Big Ten’s No. 3 team. There, they’d draw a marquee SEC opponent, presenting an opportunity to pick up a statement win at the end of the year.
Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: Citrus vs. Mississippi (Orlando, Fla.)
Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Rose vs. Oregon (Pasadana, Calif.)
Jerry Palm, CBS: Citrus vs. Mississippi
Brett McMurphy, Action Network: Orange vs. North Carolina (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
Bill Bender, Sporting News: Rose vs. Oregon
Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: Citrus vs. Florida
College Football News: Cotton vs. Central Florida (Arlington, Texas)
LSU’s upset of Alabama and Clemson’s upset loss to Notre Dame over the weekend have blown up the Orange Bowl consensus projectors have had for Penn State for most of the past month. As we’ve noted in this space several times before, the Orange Bowl has complicated tie-in math. The top-ranked team from the SEC or Big Ten heads there only after tie-ins to the Rose and Sugar Bowls have been satisfied. For a while, it looked like Penn State might be that team. Now? LSU seems to be in pole position with a fairly clear path to a 10-2 finish and appearance in the SEC title game.
So where does that leave Penn State? Hard to say. If Michigan and Ohio State both make the College Football Playoff — a more likely outcome now that Clemson has lost — that would open up a path to the Rose Bowl, as Penn State would likely be the top Big Ten team outside the playoff. If one of those two Big Ten East rivals miss the playoff, the Cotton Bowl would be the only other New Year’s Six option realistically available. To head there, Penn State would need to be ranked in the top 12 of the playoff rankings. As of this writing, they’re 15th, so they have some work to do to reach eligibility. The good news is that — barring another loss — James Franklin’s squad probably can’t fall below the Citrus Bowl as the Big Ten’s No. 3 team. There, they’d draw a marquee SEC opponent, presenting an opportunity to pick up a statement win at the end of the year.
switch those two then. Self admitted lazy when it came to west coast and didn't look up records.
Not sure Oregon overcomes the blowout to UGA, especially if OSU/UM is a great competitive game. The big knock against us (outside of 2 losses) in 2016 was the size of the blowout loss to Michigan.
Path to the cotton is likely intertwined with the Rose Bowl bid. Most of the projections have a pac-12 school in the slot currently. Need to finish ahead of any Pac-12 schools that aren't playoff/rose bowl bound.
Last edited:
2011 was one of the reasons why it went from 2 to 4. The participation trophy people have taken that safety net format and gone all out quota inclusiveness regardless of merit.
It wasn’t structured to minimize rematches, it was structured to reward the highest success. The nature of that will minimize rematches.
My inquiry about PSU isn’t just about the rematch aspect. It is about a multi-time failing team being provided an opportunity against a never failing team, the rematch part is just the icing on the cake.
You miss out on the biggest failing of the current CFP: it's an invitational tournament.
No actual qualification exists. Not being undefeated. Not winning your conference. It's a beauty pageant.
Until they create qualifications for entrance, it's going to be the same thing with 12 as it is with 4 as it was with 2.
I agree but that has worked well for PSU in that we always have really high TV ratings. So the beauty pageant bowls want us. What hasn't worked out great is the ranking system that gets you into the championship series.
I'd love the Rose at it is the most prestigious game not in the championship series. After that I like the Sugar/Orange games for prime time. Cotton/Citrus after that. I am much more focused on "which bowl" as opposed to opponent as long as we aren't playing the MAC champ or an upstart Memphis type of team.
Minor corrections -being in the top 12 is not a guarantee for two reasons:
- The highest ranked group of 5 school is guaranteed a NY6 bowl and that ranking could be outside of the top 12.
- Bowl tie-ins could mean a team outside of the top 12 fills a spot because the higher-ranked conference team is in the playoff. Case in point, PSU was in top 12 in CFP in 2018 but #15 Texas got the Sugar because Oklahoma was in the playoff. #24 Virginia was in the Orange in 2019 season because Clemson was in the playoff. There are other examples but you get the gist.
This demand for perfection is boring. Just like this supposed aversion to rematches (unless we're talking SEC then bring on the rematches).
9-7 and 10-6 teams have won super bowls. Guess the NFL is a participation trophy league.
That’s a matter of personal opinion. When your team achieves it, it is really memorable.
If you think that reflects well on the league, that is your choice.
I’d call it a mindset by decision makers, but you may describe the league as you wish. That said, they included the Steelers last year…
I’m not missing anything. It is obvious they are taking the teams with the best records. Do better than everyone else.Describe that as you wish.
If you are a G5 school, play someone, and do not purposefully avoid playing a P5 team.
I wish they had never gotten rid of ties. If you are not good enough to win in regulation, you shouldn’t get the same credit. Think of Tennessee if they were 7-1-1, that is different from 8-1.
The problem with the G5's is this......because most teams that play them could care less, they have actually been able to win a few. If all the P5 Teams would have taken care of business, they might be out of this thing by now.
The fact that TCU could be snubbed at 13-0 for a 1-loss team says different. They didn't have the undefeated teams in order last week did they?
I understand what you are saying about adding more teams. The way things are going, we need 4 conferences. Zero divisions. Best 2 at the end of week 13 play for playoffs. Those 4 meet as they do now.
If the bowls wish to stay, bid on teams and make interesting match-ups. Not strict conference tie ins.
The system is flawed in that an undefeated team can lose the ccg and still make the playoff. If we can punish a team for losing week 9, punish them in week 14 as well. The eye test sucks. Of course Saban can damn near beat anybody with the best roster and 25 days to prepare. I'd take his current 2 loss team over anybody else in a one shot game if booked tomorrow. Paterno used to be like that.
Records/schedules are widely variable conference to conference, team to team. Washington played absolutely no one in 2016. Penn state makes the playoff that year with Washingtons ooc schedule. Let’s just schedule 3 tin cans and call it a day since it’s a record contest.
Last edited:
Wait a sec. The only fact is an 8-0 TCU wasn’t in the top 4 in early Nov. I don’t think there was any way TCU would have been left out at 13-0 in Dec.
CCGs are only based on 67-75% of games and do not guarantee the two most successful teams from those percentages even meet.
I just want to reward the most successful teams with an opportunity. In a potential SEC scenario, LSU could win the CCG which would leave a head to head loop of LSU > UGA > Tenn > LSU. Who would be most successful overall? The team that lost to FSU, the team that needed extra time to beat Pitt, or the team that whooped 1-loss Oregon?
There is time for things to change I’ve seen a CCG loser (OU) flame out when allowed to play for the title and I’ve seen UGA rebound and dominate in the CFP last year.
Let 2016 go. A pre-bowl 2-loss PSU lost to a 3-loss team team in the Rose Bowl. PSU, of all teams, has enough other years to complain about that this one sounds ridiculous.
My only thought is it is the younger generation complaining because they want so much to think they know what it is like to have experienced their team being screwed.
I guess this is where I see the problem with the ccg not being part of the playoff. Why play it? If LSU can gain nothing and UGA can lose nothing, it's the most worthless game of the year. Sure, UGA has the brand and the clout, but if they can't beat LSU in the ccg, why reward them with the playoff?
I don't think LSU can beat UGA personally, so it's not likely to matter. I think Ole Miss is average (best win is UK), I think Bama will be lucky to not lose 4 games this year (worst Bama team under Saban since year 1), and UT will be exposed again whether they get in the playoff or ny6 game. UGA is legit, but I think it's much worse to let a team in the playoff coming off a loss than not. Just my thing.
They weren’t set up to be, they were moneymakers. People came up with this idea they were something they were not.
That said, things are changing, expanded format with byes, practically auto bids, divisions being eliminated for some (or more) conferences. Some specifics still TBD.
That is in the rare SEC case. LSU could still get in with a few upsets or some shenanigans that would really flip this board out.
Pac-12 might be holding the equivalent of a quarterfinal game. ACC the same with a lot of help. B1G a don’t blow it.
So LSU couldn’t beat two teams and that is better? LSU is only getting the CCG appearance by luck of the draw this year of the division.
Heck, do you want Illinois to get an auto bid if they get lucky in one game by their overall season good fortune? Why not just hand out lottery tickets?
Because a conference or even a division title means nothing
Georgia will have proven at 12-1 that they deserve a shot at the playoff with wins over Oregon and Tennessee.
Conference title games are just about money-they aren't part of a post season
At this point the Rose Bowl looks very unlikely as a lot has to happen, least of all, we have to win out. In the last three games, we play the 3rd and 4th best teams we play this year, both of whom played Michigan a lot tighter than we did. Maryland is very similar to us but really doesn't have a quality win. Their best win was Michigan State when they were at their nadir injury wise whereas we get them when they are healthy (we'll see how many defenders they have available and what the weather is like). Michigan State has stronger wins than we have. At the end of the day, it is not a safe bet we beat both the Terps and the Spartans. They have both played harder schedules to date while our best win so far is Purdue in the opener and they did more to lose than we did to win. Beyond winning out, a lot needs to happen. I think we are looking at the Citrus Bowl best case but with a loss further down that that. Right now, I have four different conference champs in the playoffs. I am favoring undefeated Georgia, Michigan and TCU and a one loss USC.
Really? I hear everyone saying that but if Georgia wins out and either UM (probably) or OSU wins out, why do we really need any more than 2?
Still a lot of football to be played and our opinions on teams will change but if it's anything like the last few years, 4 is almost too many.
If Oregon wins out and takes the PAC12 there is no way they can put Tennessee in over Oregon. Both would have the same record, both would have been beaten down by Georgia but only one will have won their conference. Oregon would have to go in over Tennessee in that scenario.
