Bowl guru Jerry Palm now projects us to Citrus

Jerry

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
5,684
11,957
1
Link below. As fastlax feared, that Alabama loss last night was bad for us because it likely puts the Tide in the Orange where Palm projects they will match up against Clemson, which may have seen its playoff hopes vanish at the hands of Notre Dame.

His projected playoff four: #1 Georgia versus #4 Tennessee and #2 Ohio State versus #3 TCU

But there's a lot of football to be played, and I doubt his predicted seedings will hold. Our main focus has to be winning the next three:

 

CJFisJoePaII

Well-Known Member
Sep 6, 2019
3,671
3,832
1
Link below. As fastlax feared, that Alabama loss last night was bad for us because it likely puts the Tide in the Orange where Palm projects they will match up against Clemson, which may have seen its playoff hopes vanish at the hands of Notre Dame.

His projected playoff four: #1 Georgia versus #4 Tennessee and #2 Ohio State versus #3 TCU

But there's a lot of football to be played, and I doubt his predicted seedings will hold. Our main focus has to be winning the next three:


Huge assumptions built into this - LSU has to win out. Also, if Oregon or USC win out - they go in front of Tennessee. Many others as well - Bama finishing with 3 losses, LSU finishing with 3 losses is just as likely imho.
 
  • Like
Reactions: psuno1 and Jerry

knickslions

Well-Known Member
Feb 2, 2005
1,378
1,286
1
TCU will lose. Two tough games coming up. If I was betting man I would say Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Tennessee in final 4. No pac teams will get in. I think they all will have 2 losses when it’s done and Oregon got waxed by Georgia. Unless the Michigan osu game is a romp they are both in. Georgia is in and Tennessee schedule is easy and they will get in.
 

Jerry

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
5,684
11,957
1
Huge assumptions built into this - LSU has to win out. Also, if Oregon or USC win out - they go in front of Tennessee. Many others as well - Bama finishing with 3 losses, LSU finishing with 3 losses is just as likely imho.

Yeah, Palm is well-informed and well-connected, but this is only a snapshot of where he thinks things stand now. There are a lot of moving parts, so I doubt that projection of his will hold up through the entire remainder of the regular season and conference championships. Still, I think there's some useful insight in it.
 

Jerry

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
5,684
11,957
1
TCU will lose. Two tough games coming up. If I was betting man I would say Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Tennessee in final 4. No pac teams will get in. I think they all will have 2 losses when it’s done and Oregon got waxed by Georgia. Unless the Michigan osu game is a romp they are both in. Georgia is in and Tennessee schedule is easy and they will get in.

If Ohio State wins out, I have a hard time seeing both Ohio State and Michigan make it in. I think the committee would hesitate to turn the thing into an SEC-B1G show in that scenario...unless the other contenders all had two losses.

However, if Michigan wins out, who knows...that could change the equation.
 

CJFisJoePaII

Well-Known Member
Sep 6, 2019
3,671
3,832
1
TCU will lose. Two tough games coming up. If I was betting man I would say Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Tennessee in final 4. No pac teams will get in. I think they all will have 2 losses when it’s done and Oregon got waxed by Georgia. Unless the Michigan osu game is a romp they are both in. Georgia is in and Tennessee schedule is easy and they will get in.

Both USC and Oregon are 8-1, they may be ranked as high as 5th & 6th when the new CFP Rankings come out Tuesday - as bad as Tennessee was dominated (and Bama losing again), I could easily see this week's CFB Rankings as: 1) UGa, 2)duhO$U, 3) scUM, 4) TCU, 5) Oregon, 6) USC, 7) Tennessee....

In any event, if either USC or Oregon win out, they'll go in front of the duhO$U v scUM loser.
 

LandoComando

Well-Known Member
Nov 29, 2021
4,965
1,565
1
Honestly, Tennessee locked up a playoff spot by losing yesterday as long as they don't lose another game.

Locks
Georgia
Tennessee
Big Ten East Winner

The last spot is either SEC #3 or Big Ten #2 unless TCU is 13-0. LSU at 11-2 with wins over Georgia and Bama and Michigan or Ohio State at 11-1 get in over a 12-1 Oregon, USC, Clemson or TCU.
 

Online Persona

Well-Known Member
Feb 2, 2022
1,893
3,906
1
Link below. As fastlax feared, that Alabama loss last night was bad for us because it likely puts the Tide in the Orange where Palm projects they will match up against Clemson, which may have seen its playoff hopes vanish at the hands of Notre Dame.

His projected playoff four: #1 Georgia versus #4 Tennessee and #2 Ohio State versus #3 TCU

But there's a lot of football to be played, and I doubt his predicted seedings will hold. Our main focus has to be winning the next three:

I don't know that Clemson wins out. They aren't that good and should have had a loss before Notre Dame. They have 6-3 Louisville and 6-3 S. Carolina left before the ACC championship against likely a weak UNC who will probably drop one to NC ST or Wake Forest before that.

TCU isn't a lock to win out either with 6-3 Texas and 6-3 Baylor before likely playing either one of them or 6-3 K St in their championship game. I'm not sure a 1 loss TCU is strong enough for consideration for the playoff.

Michigan and Ohio St will finish with 0 and 1 loss, my guess respectively. I think Michigan has what Ohio St struggles with the most. No one from the west will challenge either in the conference championship. They both could be playoff bound IMO.

If one of Oregon, USC, or UCLA survives as a 1 loss PAC championship, then they might get a shot for the playoff. But Oregon still has 7-2 Utah and a championship game, USC has 8-1 UCLA and 6-3 Notre Dame, while UCLA really only has 8-1 USC left and the championship game. The PAC winner may well have 2 losses.

Georgia still has 6-3 Miss St and 6-3 Kentucky before a conference championship against probably 8-2 LSU. They are likely to be undefeated and the 1 seed.

Tennessee only has 6-3 S.Car remaining and may get the nod for the playoff over a 1 loss TCU or even a 1 loss Ohio St. But it isn't definite. I don't see them losing unless they have a collapse now that they have a loss.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jerry

lazydave841

Well-Known Member
Jan 9, 2021
2,850
2,853
1
Tennessee locked up a playoff spot by losing yesterday

Disagree. They aren't going 3 SEC. 2 perhaps. LSU will sit behind UT if they both win out regular season, but if LSU wins ccg vs UGA then LSU will jump UT. The question then becomes how they rate the others.

UGA dominated UT the same way Michigan dominated us. They played keep away in the second half after the 8 minute drive to go up 27-6. They threw 1 pass after that point. They let UT straggle drives, eating clock, and scoring no points until the game was out of reach.

If USC and Oregon meet as 1-loss ccg teams, you can bet they will be positioned for a playoff spot.

And if TCU wins out, they aren't getting passed aside. It's one thing if they lose, but you can't put UT in over them because they beat Bama. LSU has 2 losses. As far as I'm concerned, unless there aren't any other 1 loss teams, they are out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jerry

CJFisJoePaII

Well-Known Member
Sep 6, 2019
3,671
3,832
1
Honestly, Tennessee locked up a playoff spot by losing yesterday as long as they don't lose another game.

Locks
Georgia
Tennessee
Big Ten East Winner

The last spot is either SEC #3 or Big Ten #2 unless TCU is 13-0. LSU at 11-2 with wins over Georgia and Bama and Michigan or Ohio State at 11-1 get in over a 12-1 Oregon, USC, Clemson or TCU.

No they wouldn't. A 11-1 duhO$U or scUM without a Conference Chapionship does not make it over a 12-1 USC or Oregon with a Conference Chapionship.
 
  • Like
Reactions: psuno1

LandoComando

Well-Known Member
Nov 29, 2021
4,965
1,565
1
Disagree. They aren't going 3 SEC. 2 perhaps. LSU will sit behind UT if they both win out regular season, but if LSU wins ccg vs UGA then LSU will jump UT. The question then becomes how they rate the others.

UGA dominated UT the same way Michigan dominated us. They played keep away in the second half after the 8 minute drive to go up 27-6. They threw 1 pass after that point. They let UT straggle drives, eating clock, and scoring no points until the game was out of reach.

If USC and Oregon meet as 1-loss ccg teams, you can bet they will be positioned for a playoff spot.

And if TCU wins out, they aren't getting passed aside. It's one thing if they lose, but you can't put UT in over them because they beat Bama. LSU has 2 losses. As far as I'm concerned, unless there aren't any other 1 loss teams, they are out.
I don't agree they can't get 3. I think Tennessee has the 2nd best odds of getting in right now but I'm sure we can find something that proves that right or wrong.

Neither USC or Oregon is getting in over a 1-loss Tennessee. Especially since Tennessee was more competitive than Oregon when they both played Georgia

Do you think TCU wins out? I don't.
 
  • Like
Reactions: lazydave841

LandoComando

Well-Known Member
Nov 29, 2021
4,965
1,565
1
No they wouldn't. A 11-1 duhO$U or scUM without a Conference Chapionship does not make it over a 12-1 USC or Oregon with a Conference Chapionship.
Watch and learn...conference titles mean almost nothing when you're comparing Pac XII champ to a team that only lost to #1 or #2
 

CJFisJoePaII

Well-Known Member
Sep 6, 2019
3,671
3,832
1
Disagree. They aren't going 3 SEC. 2 perhaps. LSU will sit behind UT if they both win out regular season, but if LSU wins ccg vs UGA then LSU will jump UT. The question then becomes how they rate the others.

UGA dominated UT the same way Michigan dominated us. They played keep away in the second half after the 8 minute drive to go up 27-6. They threw 1 pass after that point. They let UT straggle drives, eating clock, and scoring no points until the game was out of reach.

If USC and Oregon meet as 1-loss ccg teams, you can bet they will be positioned for a playoff spot.

And if TCU wins out, they aren't getting passed aside. It's one thing if they lose, but you can't put UT in over them because they beat Bama. LSU has 2 losses. As far as I'm concerned, unless there aren't any other 1 loss teams, they are out.

Highest probability imho: 1) 13-0 UGa, 2) duhO$U [they're 8-1 in their last 9 against scUM, 16-2 in their last 18 and 17-3 in last 20. The last time duhO$U lost two in a row to scUM was 21 years ago, 1999 and 2000], 3) 13-0 TCU and 4) 12-1 USC.
 

Agoodnap

Well-Known Member
Sep 27, 2015
3,422
4,818
1
No they wouldn't. A 11-1 duhO$U or scUM without a Conference Chapionship does not make it over a 12-1 USC or Oregon with a Conference Chapionship.
Why not? An 11-1 O$U made it in over their own conference champion! You forgot about the EYE Test.
 
  • Like
Reactions: john4psu

RickinDayton

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
2,715
2,879
1
Both USC and Oregon are 8-1, they may be ranked as high as 5th & 6th when the new CFP Rankings come out Tuesday - as bad as Tennessee was dominated (and Bama losing again), I could easily see this week's CFB Rankings as: 1) UGa, 2)duhO$U, 3) scUM, 4) TCU, 5) Oregon, 6) USC, 7) Tennessee....

In any event, if either USC or Oregon win out, they'll go in front of the duhO$U v scUM loser.
Agree.
 

CJFisJoePaII

Well-Known Member
Sep 6, 2019
3,671
3,832
1
Oregon and USC were 8/9. Tennessee was 1. Tennessee isn't dropping to 7

Why's that? Their big "signature win" over Bama doesn't look that great anymore after Bama lost to 2-loss LSU and Tennessee got utterly dominated by UGa (UGa winning 24-6 at the half and 27-6 with only 6 minutes remaining - Tennessee scored a meaningless TD with 4 minutes remaining..... The beatdown was far worse than 2 TD final margin - far worse). Tennessee could easily drop 6 spots getting hammered that badly especially with Bama losing.
 

lazydave841

Well-Known Member
Jan 9, 2021
2,850
2,853
1
Especially since Tennessee was more competitive than Oregon when they both played Georgia

You might be right. Could come down to brand bias (Oregon has been a better brand for 20 years now) though. Particularly if Oregon keeps blowing people out. They have 3 more games that look good on paper plus a potential title game.

Tennessee might be hanging their hat on the 2nd worst Bama team of the Saban era. Blew out UK and LSU, but close wins over Pitt and Florida drag them. They don't have the Bama/UGA pull imo yet.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LandoComando

LandoComando

Well-Known Member
Nov 29, 2021
4,965
1,565
1
Why's that? Their big "signature win" over Bama doesn't look that great anymore after Bama lost to 2-loss LSU and Tennessee got utterly dominated by UGa (UGa winning 24-6 at the half and 27-6 with only 6 minutes remaining - Tennessee scored a meaningless TD with 4 minutes remaining..... The beatdown was far worse than 2 TD final margin - far worse). Tennessee could easily drop 6 spots getting hammered that badly especially with Bama losing.
The win over Bama is still better than what Oregon and USC. Do you remember Oregon vs. Georgia?
 

LandoComando

Well-Known Member
Nov 29, 2021
4,965
1,565
1
You might be right. Could come down to brand bias (Oregon has been a better brand for 20 years now) though. Particularly if Oregon keeps blowing people out. They have 3 more games that look good on paper plus a potential title game.

Tennessee might be hanging their hat on the 2nd worst Bama team of the Saban era. Blew out UK and LSU, but close wins over Pitt and Florida drag them. They don't have the Bama/UGA pull imo yet.
That's fair
 

jbenedict

Well-Known Member
Nov 28, 2017
1,817
1,676
1
If Ohio State wins out, I have a hard time seeing both Ohio State and Michigan make it in. I think the committee would hesitate to turn the thing into an SEC-B1G show in that scenario...unless the other contenders all had two losses.

However, if Michigan wins out, who knows...that could change the equation.
Hey Jerry,I just don't think OSU will get by Michigan. My question what makes Tennessee a top 4 team?
Have a good Sunday.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jerry

Jerry

Well-Known Member
May 29, 2001
5,684
11,957
1
Hey Jerry,I just don't think OSU will get by Michigan. My question what makes Tennessee a top 4 team?
Have a good Sunday.

That OSU-Michigan showdown is shaping up to be very interesting indeed. The Bucks have the homefield advantage, which is a big plus for them, and will be favored to win...I'd WAG it at 4-5 points if form holds until the game.

Meanwhile, there's a pretty big game the week before when Illinois goes to Michigan. That's not a gimme even with Illinois being brought back to earth yesterday against Michigan State.

As for Tennessee, their big selling point is SEC mystique...plus the squeaker W against legendary Alabama and a dominant win against LSU that looks better with each passing week.

Still, it's pretty rare for a team not even playing in their conference championship game to be selected for a playoff spot...unless of course the snubbed team in the equation is Penn State in which case all rules and precedents are happily set aside.

Have a good Sunday yourself.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jbenedict

ryoder1

Well-Known Member
Feb 17, 2007
2,215
1,678
1
TCU will lose. Two tough games coming up. If I was betting man I would say Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State and Tennessee in final 4. No pac teams will get in. I think they all will have 2 losses when it’s done and Oregon got waxed by Georgia. Unless the Michigan osu game is a romp they are both in. Georgia is in and Tennessee schedule is easy and they will get in.
Our issue to get into a NY6 seems to hinge on Bama, LSU and Oregon taking spots. Just need them to lose again. If TCU loses it should help us but if they only lose once then they just go to the Sugar and not sure it does help us.
 

fastlax16

Well-Known Member
Jan 1, 2014
7,590
6,532
1
Our issue to get into a NY6 seems to hinge on Bama, LSU and Oregon taking spots. Just need them to lose again. If TCU loses it should help us but if they only lose once then they just go to the Sugar and not sure it does help us.

tcu losing helps if it gets the big ten a second cfp or the sec a third playoff team, which would open the road to the rose or
Orange bowl back up since those spots can’t be filled by a pac12 team.
 

CJFisJoePaII

Well-Known Member
Sep 6, 2019
3,671
3,832
1
That OSU-Michigan showdown is shaping up to be very interesting indeed. The Bucks have the homefield advantage, which is a big plus for them, and will be favored to win...I'd WAG it at 4-5 points if form holds until the game.

Meanwhile, there's a pretty big game the week before when Illinois goes to Michigan. That's not a gimme even with Illinois being brought back to earth yesterday against Michigan State.

As for Tennessee, their big selling point is SEC mystique...plus the squeaker W against legendary Alabama and a dominant win against LSU that looks better with each passing week.

Still, it's pretty rare for a team not even playing in their conference championship game to be selected for a playoff spot...unless of course the snubbed team in the equation is Penn State in which case all rules and precedents are happily set aside.

Have a good Sunday yourself.

scUM hasn't beaten duhO$U at The Shoe since 2000. scUM is 0-9 at The Shoe since that game. scUM is 3-17 in their last 20 against duhO$U despite playing 11 of the 20 in the big outhouse.
 

GOPSU01

Well-Known Member
Jan 3, 2011
77
102
1
scUM hasn't beaten duhO$U at The Shoe since 2000. scUM is 0-9 at The Shoe since that game. scUM is 3-17 in their last 20 against duhO$U despite playing 11 of the 20 in the big outhouse.
scUM hasn't beaten duhO$U at The Shoe since 2000. scUM is 0-9 at The Shoe since that game. scUM is 3-17 in their last 20 against duhO$U despite playing 11 of the 20 in the big outhouse.
This is why I don’t get why folks labeling Michigan as “ elite “ YES they had a great year last season and currently riding on that now but let’s see consistency over a few seasons before labeling them “ elite “
 

ryoder1

Well-Known Member
Feb 17, 2007
2,215
1,678
1
tcu losing helps if it gets the big ten a second cfp or the sec a third playoff team, which would open the road to the rose or
Orange bowl back up since those spots can’t be filled by a pac12 team.
What happens if LSU beats GA in SEC cg? I think they end up being the PSU of 2016 and still don't get in because they have 2 losses.
 

fastlax16

Well-Known Member
Jan 1, 2014
7,590
6,532
1
What happens if LSU beats GA in SEC cg? I think they end up being the PSU of 2016 and still don't get in because they have 2 losses.

depends what happens in the pac 12. I think it’s unlikely they’d make it but who the f knows what the committee will do. TCU losing is more likely to get the big ten a second bid and we’d go to the rose bowl.
 

CJFisJoePaII

Well-Known Member
Sep 6, 2019
3,671
3,832
1
Our issue to get into a NY6 seems to hinge on Bama, LSU and Oregon taking spots. Just need them to lose again. If TCU loses it should help us but if they only lose once then they just go to the Sugar and not sure it does help us.

If PSU finishes 10-2, I doubt more than 1 of the PAC12 teams currently in front of them remains there (i.e., likely pass 3 of the 4). 'Ole Miss will likely fall behind them. LSU could easily lose another. If LSU losses another putting Bama in SEC CCG, a 3-loss Bama would not stay in front of us. If it ended up being 13-0 UGa, 13-0 duhO$U, 13-0 TCU and 12-1 Oregon, I'd argue that a 10-2 PSU likely goes to the Sugar against Tennessee (scUM to Rose vs USC/UCLA/Utah)....
 
Last edited:

psuno1

Well-Known Member
Feb 4, 2004
1,864
1,834
1
Huge assumptions built into this - LSU has to win out. Also, if Oregon or USC win out - they go in front of Tennessee. Many others as well - Bama finishing with 3 losses, LSU finishing with 3 losses is just as likely imho.
Bama going to lose to Ole Miss this week.
 

fastlax16

Well-Known Member
Jan 1, 2014
7,590
6,532
1
If PSU finishes 10-2, I doubt more than 1 of the PAC12 teams currently in front of them remains there (i.e., likely pass 3 of the 4). 'Ole Miss will likely fall behind them. LSU could easily lose another. If LSU losses another putting Bama in SEC CCG, a 3-loss Bama would not stay in front of us. If it ended up being 13-0 UGa, 13-0 duhO$U, 13-0 TCU and 12-1 Oregon, I'd argue that a 10-2 PSU likely goes to the Sugar against Tennessee (scUM to Rose vs USC/UCLA/Utah)....

I’d argue it’s impossible for psu to make the sugar bowl in your scenario since they’re contractually obligated replace TCU with a big 12 team if TCU is in the playoff, just like the Rose Bowl must replace the big ten champ with another big ten squad.
 

LandoComando

Well-Known Member
Nov 29, 2021
4,965
1,565
1
I’d argue it’s impossible for psu to make the sugar bowl in your scenario since they’re contractually obligated replace TCU with a big 12 team if TCU is in the playoff, just like the Rose Bowl must replace the big ten champ with another big ten squad.
Correct--Sugar HAS to be SEC vs. Big XII just like the Rose HAS to be Pac XII vs Big Ten
 

fastlax16

Well-Known Member
Jan 1, 2014
7,590
6,532
1
The only possible ny6 landing spots for a big ten team (outside the playoff) are the orange cotton or rose.
 

ryoder1

Well-Known Member
Feb 17, 2007
2,215
1,678
1
depends what happens in the pac 12. I think it’s unlikely they’d make it but who the f knows what the committee will do. TCU losing is more likely to get the big ten a second bid and we’d go to the rose bowl.
TCU could very well lose this week at Texas and then could follow that up with a loss at Baylor the following week.