Bowl guru Jerry Palm projects Penn State to finish 10-2 and play Oklahoma in Peach

[Jerry]

Wonder if he’ll change his SEC team if Ole Miss falls below Mizzou in the CFP rankings like they did in the other 2 rankings.

Good question.

Meanwhile, ESPN has two bowl prognosticators and both of them have us getting an NY6 bid: one says Alabama in the Peach and the other Oregon in the Fiesta.

Granted, this season didn't measure up to our most optimistic hopes, but an NY6 bowl win would be a nice way to cap it nevertheless and change the vibe heading into next year when we'll have an excellent shot at making the 12-team playoff...where anything can happen.

That said, none of it means anything unless we get our heads screwed back on straight and close out the year with wins the next two weeks. It starts with making changes on O. Firing the coordinator was a good first move in that direction.

 

[Obliviax]

Good question.

Meanwhile, ESPN has two bowl prognosticators and both of them have us getting an NY6 bid: one says Alabama in the Peach and the other Oregon in the Fiesta.

Granted, this season didn't measure up to our most optimistic hopes, but an NY6 bowl win would be a nice way to cap it nevertheless and change the vibe heading into next year when we'll have an excellent shot at making the 12-team playoff...where anything can happen.

That said, none of it means anything unless we get our heads screwed back on straight and close out the year with wins the next two weeks. It starts with making changes on O. Firing the coordinator was a good first move in that direction.

Agreed. I think we can all agree PSU is not as good as tOSU and Michigan. Nor should we be in the final 4. That leaves 5 through 10. I think we are one of the top ten teams in the nation.

 

[ryoder1]

Good question.

Meanwhile, ESPN has two bowl prognosticators and both of them have us getting an NY6 bid: one says Alabama in the Peach and the other Oregon in the Fiesta.

Granted, this season didn't measure up to our most optimistic hopes, but an NY6 bowl win would be a nice way to cap it nevertheless and change the vibe heading into next year when we'll have an excellent shot at making the 12-team playoff...where anything can happen.

That said, none of it means anything unless we get our heads screwed back on straight and close out the year with wins the next two weeks. It starts with making changes on O. Firing the coordinator was a good first move in that direction.

I would watch PSU in the lowest of low bowls against Akron because that is just me.

I do agree that a NY6 bowl is the culmination of a good season but we do need to play well and win it. My overall one word descriptor of the season is disappointing even if we win the next two and a NY6 bowl.

What makes a NY6 game attractive is playing an oppobent who is a strong program and ideally ranked ahead of us. Oregon or Alabama fit that bill so that is a good thing. Problem is we could easily lose to either of them and a 3 loss season with your signature win being Iowa is so blah.

 

[Obliviax]

I would watch PSU in the lowest of low bowls against Akron because that is just me.

I do agree that a NY6 bowl is the culmination of a good season but we do need to play well and win it. My overall one word descriptor of the season is disappointing even if we win the next two and a NY6 bowl.

What makes a NY6 game attractive is playing an oppobent who is a strong program and ideally ranked ahead of us. Oregon or Alabama fit that bill so that is a good thing. Problem is we could easily lose to either of them and a 3 loss season with your signature win being Iowa is so blah.

Agreed. and my question would be "what program has played two top-five teams?"

 

[Texas Lion]

I want Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Be a lot of fun for me.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Good question.

Meanwhile, ESPN has two bowl prognosticators and both of them have us getting an NY6 bid: one says Alabama in the Peach and the other Oregon in the Fiesta.

Granted, this season didn't measure up to our most optimistic hopes, but an NY6 bowl win would be a nice way to cap it nevertheless and change the vibe heading into next year when we'll have an excellent shot at making the 12-team playoff...where anything can happen.

That said, none of it means anything unless we get our heads screwed back on straight and close out the year with wins the next two weeks. It starts with making changes on O. Firing the coordinator was a good first move in that direction.

Agree with you. Yes, bowls take lesser significance (or any) after this year (I'm not going to further belabor that point with that Lando guy since he fails to understand) but for this year a NY6 would is important because it keeps us relevant in a high-profile bowl. My worry about a NY6 is getting pushed out.

It's a misnomer that we just have to be in the top 12 of CFP rankings since G5 gets a bid AND conferences get a replacement team if their representative is chosen for the CFP depending on which bowls are the playoff sites. For instance, if Florida State gets to the CFP, ACC gets a replacement team in Orange. Since the Rose and Sugar are playoff sites, the B10, SEC, and B12 dont necessarily get a replacement team though in years' prior that was the case. This is why you had:

• #16 Oklahoma State in Sugar in 2015 season
• #12 Ole Miss in Sugar also in 2015 season (G5 team was outside of the top 12)
• #14 Auburn in Sugar in 2016 season
• #15 Texas in Sugar in 2018 season
• #24 Virginia in Orange in 2019 season
• #13 UNC in Orange in 2020 season

With 12 spots available, I think it is safe to assume the following have locked up a spot:

• Group of Five (Tulane?)
• Georgia (likely playoff spot, possible SEC champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Alabama (highly ranked and/or possibly SEC champion) - 1 or 2 losses
• Michigan (possible playoff spot, possible B10 champion, highly ranked, or B10 rep in Orange) - 0 or 1 loss
• Ohio State (possible playoff spot, possible B10 champion, highly ranked, or B10 rep in Orange) - 0 or 1 loss
• FSU (possible playoff spot, possible ACC champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Washington (possible playoff spot, possible P12 champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Oregon (possible P12 champion, or highly ranked) - 1 or 2 losses
• Louisville (possible ACC champion, highly ranked, or ACC rep in Orange) - 1-2 losses
• Texas (possible B12 champion, highly ranked, maybe playoff spot) - 1-2 losses

So all the above teams could lose once more and still very likely get a NY6 spot. This leaves 2 spots for 4 teams:

• Penn State - hopefully finish 10-2
• Ole Miss - probably 10-2
• Missouri - probably 10-2 though maybe they lose vs Florida or Arkansas
• Oklahoma - probably 10-2 assuming they get past TCU but if Ok State doesn't drop another game, OU doesn't go to B12 champ game so they would finish 10-2. If they go to B12 champ game, then they finish 10-3 or 11-2.

So 4 teams for 2 spots, what would be our rooting interests (outside of winning our remaining games):

1. Obviously, the biggest rooting interest (outside of PSU) is for Texas to win the B12 game because they are going to get to a NY6 bowl regardless.
2. Ole Miss losing one more though very unlikely that they lose to Miss State.
3. Missouri losing one more

I don't think they take 4 teams from the SEC so that would remove Ole Miss or Missouri from contention. Ole Miss has one good win (LSU), 14 pt loss to Alabama, and a whooping by Georgia. Missouri has 2 respectable losses to LSU and Georgia so I would favor them over Ole Miss.

As for Oklahoma, they have that one big win over Texas and two close losses to respectable teams. Assuming SEC gets a 3rd team, that makes it a Oklahoma vs PSU consideration. In terms of resume, I think Oklahoma has a quality win but we lost to 2 top 5 teams, they lost to teams below the top 20. Given B10 is all but guaranteed to have OSU and Mich in NY6, I could definitely see some maneuvering in the CFP rankings to get them above us and give B12 a second spot. Take the AP/Coaches rankings out of it since they don't matter when it comes to the NY6. There is usually a variation between the CFP and AP/Coaches by 2-4 spots when you get into this area. In the CFP, they were #17 last week and we were #10.

• How much does the Committee penalize us for that loss?
• Ole Miss was at #9 and got crushed. We should fall but not as far as them.
• Louisville, Oregon State will jump us since they were right below us and both still have 1 loss.
• Oregon State plays Wash and Oregon so they are likely to lose one or both and fall out of contention so I did not consider them in any of the above scenarios.
• Tennessee (#13), Ok State (#15), and Kansas (#16) all lost.

So if we fall below Oklahoma in this next poll, barring another loss by Oklahoma (vs TCU or if they make B12 champ game), they will probably remain ahead of us and get the final NY6 spot.

 

[bourbon n blues]

Agreed. I think we can all agree PSU is not as good as tOSU and Michigan. Nor should we be in the final 4. That leaves 5 through 10. I think we are one of the top ten teams in the nation.

Yep

 

[NedFromYork]

Hoping to win next two and go to Fiesta. My son and I are in Phoenix through Jan 2nd!

 

[KCLion]

Agree with you. Yes, bowls take lesser significance (or any) after this year (I'm not going to further belabor that point with that Lando guy since he fails to understand) but for this year a NY6 would is important because it keeps us relevant in a high-profile bowl. My worry about a NY6 is getting pushed out.

It's a misnomer that we just have to be in the top 12 of CFP rankings since G5 gets a bid AND conferences get a replacement team if their representative is chosen for the CFP depending on which bowls are the playoff sites. For instance, if Florida State gets to the CFP, ACC gets a replacement team in Orange. Since the Rose and Sugar are playoff sites, the B10, SEC, and B12 dont necessarily get a replacement team though in years' prior that was the case. This is why you had:

• #16 Oklahoma State in Sugar in 2015 season
• #12 Ole Miss in Sugar also in 2015 season (G5 team was outside of the top 12)
• #14 Auburn in Sugar in 2016 season
• #15 Texas in Sugar in 2018 season
• #24 Virginia in Orange in 2019 season
• #13 UNC in Orange in 2020 season

With 12 spots available, I think it is safe to assume the following have locked up a spot:

• Group of Five (Tulane?) watch for SMU here
• Georgia (likely playoff spot, possible SEC champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Alabama (highly ranked and/or possibly SEC champion) - 1 or 2 losses
• Michigan (possible playoff spot, possible B10 champion, highly ranked, or B10 rep in Orange) - 0 or 1 loss
• Ohio State (possible playoff spot, possible B10 champion, highly ranked, or B10 rep in Orange) - 0 or 1 loss
• FSU (possible playoff spot, possible ACC champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Washington (possible playoff spot, possible P12 champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Oregon (possible P12 champion, or highly ranked) - 1 or 2 losses
• Louisville (possible ACC champion, highly ranked, or ACC rep in Orange) - 1-2 losses
• Texas (possible B12 champion, highly ranked, maybe playoff spot) - 1-2 losses

So all the above teams could lose once more and still very likely get a NY6 spot. This leaves 2 spots for 4 teams:

• Penn State - hopefully finish 10-2
• Ole Miss - probably 10-2
• Missouri - probably 10-2 though maybe they lose vs Florida or Arkansas
• Oklahoma - probably 10-2 assuming they get past TCU but if Ok State doesn't drop another game, OU doesn't go to B12 champ game so they would finish 10-2. If they go to B12 champ game, then they finish 10-3 or 11-2.

So 4 teams for 2 spots, what would be our rooting interests (outside of winning our remaining games):

1. Obviously, the biggest rooting interest (outside of PSU) is for Texas to win the B12 game because they are going to get to a NY6 bowl regardless.
2. Ole Miss losing one more though very unlikely that they lose to Miss State.
3. Missouri losing one more

I don't think they take 4 teams from the SEC so that would remove Ole Miss or Missouri from contention. Ole Miss has one good win (LSU), 14 pt loss to Alabama, and a whooping by Georgia. Missouri has 2 respectable losses to LSU and Georgia so I would favor them over Ole Miss.

As for Oklahoma, they have that one big win over Texas and two close losses to respectable teams. Assuming SEC gets a 3rd team, that makes it a Oklahoma vs PSU consideration. In terms of resume, I think Oklahoma has a quality win but we lost to 2 top 5 teams, they lost to teams below the top 20. Given B10 is all but guaranteed to have OSU and Mich in NY6, I could definitely see some maneuvering in the CFP rankings to get them above us and give B12 a second spot. Take the AP/Coaches rankings out of it since they don't matter when it comes to the NY6. There is usually a variation between the CFP and AP/Coaches by 2-4 spots when you get into this area. In the CFP, they were #17 last week and we were #10.

• How much does the Committee penalize us for that loss?
• Ole Miss was at #9 and got crushed. We should fall but not as far as them.
• Louisville, Oregon State will jump us since they were right below us and both still have 1 loss.
• Oregon State plays Wash and Oregon so they are likely to lose one or both and fall out of contention so I did not consider them in any of the above scenarios.
• Tennessee (#13), Ok State (#15), and Kansas (#16) all lost.

So if we fall below Oklahoma in this next poll, barring another loss by Oklahoma (vs TCU or if they make B12 champ game), they will probably remain ahead of us and get the final NY6 spot.

Added a group of 5 possibility.

 

[ryoder1]

I want Texas in the Cotton Bowl. Be a lot of fun for me.

You would need to cheer loud Tex! You would be surrounded by burnt orange, Hookem and the eyes of Texas are upon me.

 

[LandoComando]

Agree with you. Yes, bowls take lesser significance (or any) after this year (I'm not going to further belabor that point with that Lando guy since he fails to understand) but for this year a NY6 would is important because it keeps us relevant in a high-profile bowl. My worry about a NY6 is getting pushed out.

It's a misnomer that we just have to be in the top 12 of CFP rankings since G5 gets a bid AND conferences get a replacement team if their representative is chosen for the CFP depending on which bowls are the playoff sites. For instance, if Florida State gets to the CFP, ACC gets a replacement team in Orange. Since the Rose and Sugar are playoff sites, the B10, SEC, and B12 dont necessarily get a replacement team though in years' prior that was the case. This is why you had:

• #16 Oklahoma State in Sugar in 2015 season
• #12 Ole Miss in Sugar also in 2015 season (G5 team was outside of the top 12)
• #14 Auburn in Sugar in 2016 season
• #15 Texas in Sugar in 2018 season
• #24 Virginia in Orange in 2019 season
• #13 UNC in Orange in 2020 season

With 12 spots available, I think it is safe to assume the following have locked up a spot:

• Group of Five (Tulane?)
• Georgia (likely playoff spot, possible SEC champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Alabama (highly ranked and/or possibly SEC champion) - 1 or 2 losses
• Michigan (possible playoff spot, possible B10 champion, highly ranked, or B10 rep in Orange) - 0 or 1 loss
• Ohio State (possible playoff spot, possible B10 champion, highly ranked, or B10 rep in Orange) - 0 or 1 loss
• FSU (possible playoff spot, possible ACC champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Washington (possible playoff spot, possible P12 champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Oregon (possible P12 champion, or highly ranked) - 1 or 2 losses
• Louisville (possible ACC champion, highly ranked, or ACC rep in Orange) - 1-2 losses
• Texas (possible B12 champion, highly ranked, maybe playoff spot) - 1-2 losses

So all the above teams could lose once more and still very likely get a NY6 spot. This leaves 2 spots for 4 teams:

• Penn State - hopefully finish 10-2
• Ole Miss - probably 10-2
• Missouri - probably 10-2 though maybe they lose vs Florida or Arkansas
• Oklahoma - probably 10-2 assuming they get past TCU but if Ok State doesn't drop another game, OU doesn't go to B12 champ game so they would finish 10-2. If they go to B12 champ game, then they finish 10-3 or 11-2.

So 4 teams for 2 spots, what would be our rooting interests (outside of winning our remaining games):

1. Obviously, the biggest rooting interest (outside of PSU) is for Texas to win the B12 game because they are going to get to a NY6 bowl regardless.
2. Ole Miss losing one more though very unlikely that they lose to Miss State.
3. Missouri losing one more

I don't think they take 4 teams from the SEC so that would remove Ole Miss or Missouri from contention. Ole Miss has one good win (LSU), 14 pt loss to Alabama, and a whooping by Georgia. Missouri has 2 respectable losses to LSU and Georgia so I would favor them over Ole Miss.

As for Oklahoma, they have that one big win over Texas and two close losses to respectable teams. Assuming SEC gets a 3rd team, that makes it a Oklahoma vs PSU consideration. In terms of resume, I think Oklahoma has a quality win but we lost to 2 top 5 teams, they lost to teams below the top 20. Given B10 is all but guaranteed to have OSU and Mich in NY6, I could definitely see some maneuvering in the CFP rankings to get them above us and give B12 a second spot. Take the AP/Coaches rankings out of it since they don't matter when it comes to the NY6. There is usually a variation between the CFP and AP/Coaches by 2-4 spots when you get into this area. In the CFP, they were #17 last week and we were #10.

• How much does the Committee penalize us for that loss?
• Ole Miss was at #9 and got crushed. We should fall but not as far as them.
• Louisville, Oregon State will jump us since they were right below us and both still have 1 loss.
• Oregon State plays Wash and Oregon so they are likely to lose one or both and fall out of contention so I did not consider them in any of the above scenarios.
• Tennessee (#13), Ok State (#15), and Kansas (#16) all lost.

So if we fall below Oklahoma in this next poll, barring another loss by Oklahoma (vs TCU or if they make B12 champ game), they will probably remain ahead of us and get the final NY6 spot.

I didn't "fail to understand" anything. You just don't like the reply even though that was very nice compared to how I typically respond to "I care about bowls so they matter" nonsense.

 

[ryoder1]

Agree with you. Yes, bowls take lesser significance (or any) after this year (I'm not going to further belabor that point with that Lando guy since he fails to understand) but for this year a NY6 would is important because it keeps us relevant in a high-profile bowl. My worry about a NY6 is getting pushed out.

It's a misnomer that we just have to be in the top 12 of CFP rankings since G5 gets a bid AND conferences get a replacement team if their representative is chosen for the CFP depending on which bowls are the playoff sites. For instance, if Florida State gets to the CFP, ACC gets a replacement team in Orange. Since the Rose and Sugar are playoff sites, the B10, SEC, and B12 dont necessarily get a replacement team though in years' prior that was the case. This is why you had:

• #16 Oklahoma State in Sugar in 2015 season
• #12 Ole Miss in Sugar also in 2015 season (G5 team was outside of the top 12)
• #14 Auburn in Sugar in 2016 season
• #15 Texas in Sugar in 2018 season
• #24 Virginia in Orange in 2019 season
• #13 UNC in Orange in 2020 season

With 12 spots available, I think it is safe to assume the following have locked up a spot:

• Group of Five (Tulane?)
• Georgia (likely playoff spot, possible SEC champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Alabama (highly ranked and/or possibly SEC champion) - 1 or 2 losses
• Michigan (possible playoff spot, possible B10 champion, highly ranked, or B10 rep in Orange) - 0 or 1 loss
• Ohio State (possible playoff spot, possible B10 champion, highly ranked, or B10 rep in Orange) - 0 or 1 loss
• FSU (possible playoff spot, possible ACC champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Washington (possible playoff spot, possible P12 champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Oregon (possible P12 champion, or highly ranked) - 1 or 2 losses
• Louisville (possible ACC champion, highly ranked, or ACC rep in Orange) - 1-2 losses
• Texas (possible B12 champion, highly ranked, maybe playoff spot) - 1-2 losses

So all the above teams could lose once more and still very likely get a NY6 spot. This leaves 2 spots for 4 teams:

• Penn State - hopefully finish 10-2
• Ole Miss - probably 10-2
• Missouri - probably 10-2 though maybe they lose vs Florida or Arkansas
• Oklahoma - probably 10-2 assuming they get past TCU but if Ok State doesn't drop another game, OU doesn't go to B12 champ game so they would finish 10-2. If they go to B12 champ game, then they finish 10-3 or 11-2.

So 4 teams for 2 spots, what would be our rooting interests (outside of winning our remaining games):

1. Obviously, the biggest rooting interest (outside of PSU) is for Texas to win the B12 game because they are going to get to a NY6 bowl regardless.
2. Ole Miss losing one more though very unlikely that they lose to Miss State.
3. Missouri losing one more

I don't think they take 4 teams from the SEC so that would remove Ole Miss or Missouri from contention. Ole Miss has one good win (LSU), 14 pt loss to Alabama, and a whooping by Georgia. Missouri has 2 respectable losses to LSU and Georgia so I would favor them over Ole Miss.

As for Oklahoma, they have that one big win over Texas and two close losses to respectable teams. Assuming SEC gets a 3rd team, that makes it a Oklahoma vs PSU consideration. In terms of resume, I think Oklahoma has a quality win but we lost to 2 top 5 teams, they lost to teams below the top 20. Given B10 is all but guaranteed to have OSU and Mich in NY6, I could definitely see some maneuvering in the CFP rankings to get them above us and give B12 a second spot. Take the AP/Coaches rankings out of it since they don't matter when it comes to the NY6. There is usually a variation between the CFP and AP/Coaches by 2-4 spots when you get into this area. In the CFP, they were #17 last week and we were #10.

• How much does the Committee penalize us for that loss?
• Ole Miss was at #9 and got crushed. We should fall but not as far as them.
• Louisville, Oregon State will jump us since they were right below us and both still have 1 loss.
• Oregon State plays Wash and Oregon so they are likely to lose one or both and fall out of contention so I did not consider them in any of the above scenarios.
• Tennessee (#13), Ok State (#15), and Kansas (#16) all lost.

So if we fall below Oklahoma in this next poll, barring another loss by Oklahoma (vs TCU or if they make B12 champ game), they will probably remain ahead of us and get the final NY6 spot.

Texas should beat OU in the B12 championship game to give them 3 losses. We would be ahead of them in the final playoff rankings. But I guess if Texas makes the playoff then Oklahoma gets the NY6 bid to the Sugar?

 

[Texas Lion]

You would need to cheer loud Tex! You would be surrounded by burnt orange, Hookem and the eyes of Texas are upon me.

Where I live is half Oklahoma fans and half ut fans so I’d probably have a big cheering section against the shorthorns.

 

[MacNit2.0]

Good question.

Meanwhile, ESPN has two bowl prognosticators and both of them have us getting an NY6 bid: one says Alabama in the Peach and the other Oregon in the Fiesta.

Granted, this season didn't measure up to our most optimistic hopes, but an NY6 bowl win would be a nice way to cap it nevertheless and change the vibe heading into next year when we'll have an excellent shot at making the 12-team playoff...where anything can happen.

That said, none of it means anything unless we get our heads screwed back on straight and close out the year with wins the next two weeks. It starts with making changes on O. Firing the coordinator was a good first move in that direction.

Let’s see if we can win the last two and go from there. Indiana game is a word of caution on this.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Texas should beat OU in the B12 championship game to give them 3 losses. We would be ahead of them in the final playoff rankings. But I guess if Texas makes the playoff then Oklahoma gets the NY6 bid to the Sugar?

Sugar is a playoff site so if B12 champ is in playoff, they won’t need a replacement. I just don’t think OU gets to champ game. Ok State has to drop one more since they hold tiebreaker over OU.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

I didn't "fail to understand" anything. You just don't like the reply even though that was very nice compared to how I typically respond to "I care about bowls so they matter" nonsense.

Shhhhh

 

[LandoComando]

Shhhhh

Good luck with that

 

[Bob2022]

Yep

PSU has rarely been as good as tOSU and Michigan and I'm sad to feel like they never will be consistently. I became a fan watching the 1970 Orange bowl when I was 12 against Missouri mainly because the Eagles sucked back then and I stumbled across a team that was good and fun to watch. But it's been frustrating watching the Beast of the East reduced to the level of the Indiana's and the Golden Gophers. Doesn't help that the league has their favorites and a questionable call here and there affected some important games.

 

[bcspsu]

PSU has rarely been as good as tOSU and Michigan and I'm sad to feel like they never will be consistently. I became a fan watching the 1970 Orange bowl when I was 12 against Missouri mainly because the Eagles sucked back then and I stumbled across a team that was good and fun to watch. But it's been frustrating watching the Beast of the East reduced to the level of the Indiana's and the Golden Gophers. Doesn't help that the league has their favorites and a questionable call here and there affected some important games.

Your post is totally hyperbolic. You can say that during the vast majority of the Big 10 years, PSU hasn't been as good as OSU and Michigan. However, it's totally ludicrous to state that PSU is at the level of an Indiana or Minnesota. God, whether you like Franklin or not, since 2016, he's at least won a Big 10 Championship, had four 11 win seasons and maybe a fifth this season, and won Fiesta, Cotton and Rose Bowls. Also, while I'm not defending the incompetent offensive performances against OSU and Michigan this season, you do realize that those teams currently are ranked #1 and #3 and PSU had a fighting chance in both of those games well into the fourth quarter; did you check out how badly Michigan beat IU and Minnesota this season?

By the way, between 2014 and 2020, Franklin actually was 3-4 against Michigan, so it wasn't like PSU wasn't able to beat that school; of course, OSU is a different story. Right now, PSU is clearly the third best team in the Big 10 and there is no other program that is even close to challegning it for third position, although that will change next season.

 

[lazydave841]

between 2014 and 2020, Franklin actually was 3-4 against Michigan, so it wasn't like PSU wasn't able to beat that school; of course, OSU is a different story.

Bingo.

Additionally, Michigan is on a 3 year run (very likely aided by cheating) that hasn't been seen since the mid 70s. That has to be taken into account.

 

[Bob2022]

Your post is totally hyperbolic. You can say that during the vast majority of the Big 10 years, PSU hasn't been as good as OSU and Michigan. However, it's totally ludicrous to state that PSU is at the level of an Indiana or Minnesota. God, whether you like Franklin or not, since 2016, he's at least won a Big 10 Championship, had four 11 win seasons and maybe a fifth this season, and won Fiesta, Cotton and Rose Bowls.

By the way, between 2014 and 2020, Franklin actually was 3-4 against Michigan, so it wasn't like PSU wasn't able to beat that school; of course, OSU is a different story.

They have been in the Big 10 since 1993, 30 years, and they have won the Big 10 championship twice, twice in 30 years not including a couple of ties. And only once 1994, they were in the national championship "talk" and of course Paterno got hosed out of another one. Maybe they will finish in the top 12 next year and get hot in the playoffs but until that happens it's tOSU, Michigan and all of the rest.

 

[bcspsu]

Bingo.

Additionally, Michigan is on a 3 year run (very likely aided by cheating) that hasn't been seen since the mid 70s. That has to be taken into account.

After Carr left Michigan, PSU was able to beat that school on many occasions, so it's just a false narrative that PSU can't beat that school. PSU also beat that school three times in a row from 1994 to 1996, so it can be done. God, after Michigan only won 2 games in 2020 and was in complete chaos, many experts thought that they needed to dump Harbaugh. Well, he obviously made some changes and it's worked. PSU's program right now is in a much better place than Michigan's was in 2020, so it shouldn't take much change by Franklin to get to the level of an OSU or Michigan and, if he can't do it, then a change eventually will need to be made.

 

[bcspsu]

They have been in the Big 10 since 1993, 30 years, and they have won the Big 10 championship twice, twice in 30 years not including a couple of ties. And only once 1994, they were in the national championship "talk" and of course Paterno got hosed out of another one. Maybe they will finish in the top 12 next year and get hot in the playoffs but until that happens it's tOSU, Michigan and all of the rest.

So at the very least, PSU has won four Big 10 Championships since 1993, but you're comparing them to schools like Indiana and Minnesota, which haven't sniffed a Big 10 Championship or won a Rose Bowl or NY6 bowl in that time; it's just a ridculous comparison.

Also, since 1993, Michigan has won a grand total of one National Championship and made the playoffs twice. They're on a great three year run, but from the late 2000s through 2020, they mostly were an afterthought and an underachieving program.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Agree with you. Yes, bowls take lesser significance (or any) after this year (I'm not going to further belabor that point with that Lando guy since he fails to understand) but for this year a NY6 would is important because it keeps us relevant in a high-profile bowl. My worry about a NY6 is getting pushed out.

It's a misnomer that we just have to be in the top 12 of CFP rankings since G5 gets a bid AND conferences get a replacement team if their representative is chosen for the CFP depending on which bowls are the playoff sites. For instance, if Florida State gets to the CFP, ACC gets a replacement team in Orange. Since the Rose and Sugar are playoff sites, the B10, SEC, and B12 dont necessarily get a replacement team though in years' prior that was the case. This is why you had:

• #16 Oklahoma State in Sugar in 2015 season
• #12 Ole Miss in Sugar also in 2015 season (G5 team was outside of the top 12)
• #14 Auburn in Sugar in 2016 season
• #15 Texas in Sugar in 2018 season
• #24 Virginia in Orange in 2019 season
• #13 UNC in Orange in 2020 season

With 12 spots available, I think it is safe to assume the following have locked up a spot:

• Group of Five (Tulane?)
• Georgia (likely playoff spot, possible SEC champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Alabama (highly ranked and/or possibly SEC champion) - 1 or 2 losses
• Michigan (possible playoff spot, possible B10 champion, highly ranked, or B10 rep in Orange) - 0 or 1 loss
• Ohio State (possible playoff spot, possible B10 champion, highly ranked, or B10 rep in Orange) - 0 or 1 loss
• FSU (possible playoff spot, possible ACC champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Washington (possible playoff spot, possible P12 champion, or highly ranked) - 0 or 1 loss
• Oregon (possible P12 champion, or highly ranked) - 1 or 2 losses
• Louisville (possible ACC champion, highly ranked, or ACC rep in Orange) - 1-2 losses
• Texas (possible B12 champion, highly ranked, maybe playoff spot) - 1-2 losses

So all the above teams could lose once more and still very likely get a NY6 spot. This leaves 2 spots for 4 teams:

• Penn State - hopefully finish 10-2
• Ole Miss - probably 10-2
• Missouri - probably 10-2 though maybe they lose vs Florida or Arkansas
• Oklahoma - probably 10-2 assuming they get past TCU but if Ok State doesn't drop another game, OU doesn't go to B12 champ game so they would finish 10-2. If they go to B12 champ game, then they finish 10-3 or 11-2.

So 4 teams for 2 spots, what would be our rooting interests (outside of winning our remaining games):

1. Obviously, the biggest rooting interest (outside of PSU) is for Texas to win the B12 game because they are going to get to a NY6 bowl regardless.
2. Ole Miss losing one more though very unlikely that they lose to Miss State.
3. Missouri losing one more

I don't think they take 4 teams from the SEC so that would remove Ole Miss or Missouri from contention. Ole Miss has one good win (LSU), 14 pt loss to Alabama, and a whooping by Georgia. Missouri has 2 respectable losses to LSU and Georgia so I would favor them over Ole Miss.

As for Oklahoma, they have that one big win over Texas and two close losses to respectable teams. Assuming SEC gets a 3rd team, that makes it a Oklahoma vs PSU consideration. In terms of resume, I think Oklahoma has a quality win but we lost to 2 top 5 teams, they lost to teams below the top 20. Given B10 is all but guaranteed to have OSU and Mich in NY6, I could definitely see some maneuvering in the CFP rankings to get them above us and give B12 a second spot. Take the AP/Coaches rankings out of it since they don't matter when it comes to the NY6. There is usually a variation between the CFP and AP/Coaches by 2-4 spots when you get into this area. In the CFP, they were #17 last week and we were #10.

• How much does the Committee penalize us for that loss?
• Ole Miss was at #9 and got crushed. We should fall but not as far as them.
• Louisville, Oregon State will jump us since they were right below us and both still have 1 loss.
• Oregon State plays Wash and Oregon so they are likely to lose one or both and fall out of contention so I did not consider them in any of the above scenarios.
• Tennessee (#13), Ok State (#15), and Kansas (#16) all lost.

So if we fall below Oklahoma in this next poll, barring another loss by Oklahoma (vs TCU or if they make B12 champ game), they will probably remain ahead of us and get the final NY6 spot.

Just an update to all this...I was at a conference last week so I didnt get to react to the CFP rankings. With us being ahead of Ole Miss and (more importantly) Oklahoma, that is telling and positions us well for a NY6 bid.

• Louisville being right ahead of us is also interesting. Seems pretty clear, the CFP committee views them as the worst 1-loss team. If they had lost to Miami, that would have boosted our spot and likely dropped them several spots. If they lose vs Kentucky this weekend and lose in ACC champ game, they are out of NY6. Given their spot just ahead of us, even if they win this week, they likely drop below us (assuming we win) if they lose the ACC champ game.
• Oregon State losing eliminates them from NY6 consideration though that it was a matter of time since they played Wash and Oregon in back to back weeks.
• If Missouri would have lost to Florida, that would have further and likely cemented our spot (again, assuming we win vs MSU). Can't see them losing to Arkansas but stranger things have happened.
• Ole Miss won so no real impact given it was vs UL-Monroe. Can't see them losing to Miss State but we are ahead of them so we win and they win, we should stay ahead of them.
• Oklahoma had a close-ish game vs BYU but pulled it out. Gabriel being hurt may impact them vs TCU but according to recent reports, he is likely to play. If they lose to TCU, that only solidifies our standing.

Rooting interest this week:

• Kentucky over Louisville (see above)
• Arkansas over Missouri (see above)
• Mississippi State over Ole Miss (see above)
• TCU over Oklahoma (see above)
• Iowa over Nebraska (improves the quality of win)
• Auburn over Alabama (not at all likely but a loss here and a loss vs Georgia knocks them out of the NY6)
• WVU over Baylor (improves our quality of win)
• The field swallows up the OSU and Michigan teams

Since I'll be in Cabo for Thanksgiving through mid-next week, here would be my rooting interest for championship week:

• OSU/Mich over Iowa (OSU and Mich are in the NY6 regardless so need to eliminate Iowa from an auto-bid)
• Texas wins the B12. They are likely in win or lose but we do not want a 2nd B12 team in the NY6 as that will definitely knock us out.
• Wash or Oregon are the Pac12 champ. There is a scenario where Arizona gets into the champ game and if they were to win, that would mean Oregon/Wash/Arizona all get in thus knocking out a spot for us.
• Florida State wins the ACC. Win or lose they get a NY6 spot but that may not be the same for Louisville so best to knock Louisville out to secure a spot.

 

[Jerry]

Just an update to all this...I was at a conference last week so I didnt get to react to the CFP rankings. With us being ahead of Ole Miss and (more importantly) Oklahoma, that is telling and positions us well for a NY6 bid.

• Louisville being right ahead of us is also interesting. Seems pretty clear, the CFP committee views them as the worst 1-loss team. If they had lost to Miami, that would have boosted our spot and likely dropped them several spots. If they lose vs Kentucky this weekend and lose in ACC champ game, they are out of NY6. Given their spot just ahead of us, even if they win this week, they likely drop below us (assuming we win) if they lose the ACC champ game.
• Oregon State losing eliminates them from NY6 consideration though that it was a matter of time since they played Wash and Oregon in back to back weeks.
• If Missouri would have lost to Florida, that would have further and likely cemented our spot (again, assuming we win vs MSU). Can't see them losing to Arkansas but stranger things have happened.
• Ole Miss won so no real impact given it was vs UL-Monroe. Can't see them losing to Miss State but we are ahead of them so we win and they win, we should stay ahead of them.
• Oklahoma had a close-ish game vs BYU but pulled it out. Gabriel being hurt may impact them vs TCU but according to recent reports, he is likely to play. If they lose to TCU, that only solidifies our standing.

Rooting interest this week:

• Kentucky over Louisville (see above)
• Arkansas over Missouri (see above)
• Mississippi State over Ole Miss (see above)
• TCU over Oklahoma (see above)
• Iowa over Nebraska (improves the quality of win)
• Auburn over Alabama (not at all likely but a loss here and a loss vs Georgia knocks them out of the NY6)
• WVU over Baylor (improves our quality of win)
• The field swallows up the OSU and Michigan teams

Since I'll be in Cabo for Thanksgiving through mid-next week, here would be my rooting interest for championship week:

• OSU/Mich over Iowa (OSU and Mich are in the NY6 regardless so need to eliminate Iowa from an auto-bid)
• Texas wins the B12. They are likely in win or lose but we do not want a 2nd B12 team in the NY6 as that will definitely knock us out.
• Wash or Oregon are the Pac12 champ. There is a scenario where Arizona gets into the champ game and if they were to win, that would mean Oregon/Wash/Arizona all get in thus knocking out a spot for us.
• Florida State wins the ACC. Win or lose they get a NY6 spot but that may not be the same for Louisville so best to knock Louisville out to secure a spot.

Thanks, good analysis.

After Saturday's games, all the major bowl prognosticators still have us getting an NY6 bid with the consensus being Peach against Missouri.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Thanks, good analysis.

After Saturday's games, all the major bowl prognosticators still have us getting an NY6 bid with the consensus being Peach against Missouri.

I think that would be a good-to-great matchup. I just wish I wasn't visiting family this holiday season as it's been on my bucket list to see PSU play in all of the NY6 bowls. I've been seen them at the Rose, Cotton, and Fiesta Bowls so I had Sugar, Orange, and Peach to go.

 

[knickslions]

This whole thing could get interesting if Bama beats Georgia

 

[djm_psu_alum]

This whole thing could get interesting if Bama beats Georgia

From a playoff perspective, yes but not really with the overall NY6 bids. Barring Alabama losing vs Auburn and in the SEC champ game, they are going to be in the NY6. GA is a given regardless.

 

[LandoComando]

Just an update to all this...I was at a conference last week so I didnt get to react to the CFP rankings. With us being ahead of Ole Miss and (more importantly) Oklahoma, that is telling and positions us well for a NY6 bid.

• Louisville being right ahead of us is also interesting. Seems pretty clear, the CFP committee views them as the worst 1-loss team. If they had lost to Miami, that would have boosted our spot and likely dropped them several spots. If they lose vs Kentucky this weekend and lose in ACC champ game, they are out of NY6. Given their spot just ahead of us, even if they win this week, they likely drop below us (assuming we win) if they lose the ACC champ game.
• Oregon State losing eliminates them from NY6 consideration though that it was a matter of time since they played Wash and Oregon in back to back weeks.
• If Missouri would have lost to Florida, that would have further and likely cemented our spot (again, assuming we win vs MSU). Can't see them losing to Arkansas but stranger things have happened.
• Ole Miss won so no real impact given it was vs UL-Monroe. Can't see them losing to Miss State but we are ahead of them so we win and they win, we should stay ahead of them.
• Oklahoma had a close-ish game vs BYU but pulled it out. Gabriel being hurt may impact them vs TCU but according to recent reports, he is likely to play. If they lose to TCU, that only solidifies our standing.

Rooting interest this week:

• Kentucky over Louisville (see above)
• Arkansas over Missouri (see above)
• Mississippi State over Ole Miss (see above)
• TCU over Oklahoma (see above)
• Iowa over Nebraska (improves the quality of win)
• Auburn over Alabama (not at all likely but a loss here and a loss vs Georgia knocks them out of the NY6)
• WVU over Baylor (improves our quality of win)
• The field swallows up the OSU and Michigan teams

Since I'll be in Cabo for Thanksgiving through mid-next week, here would be my rooting interest for championship week:

• OSU/Mich over Iowa (OSU and Mich are in the NY6 regardless so need to eliminate Iowa from an auto-bid)
• Texas wins the B12. They are likely in win or lose but we do not want a 2nd B12 team in the NY6 as that will definitely knock us out.
• Wash or Oregon are the Pac12 champ. There is a scenario where Arizona gets into the champ game and if they were to win, that would mean Oregon/Wash/Arizona all get in thus knocking out a spot for us.
• Florida State wins the ACC. Win or lose they get a NY6 spot but that may not be the same for Louisville so best to knock Louisville out to secure a spot.

Very nice breakdown. Iowa ad WVU don't really do much for us though win or lose truthfully but it can't hurt.

 

[LandoComando]

This whole thing could get interesting if Bama beats Georgia

Then the SEC gets two teams in the playoff--but I'd lose to see that chaos.

 

[lazydave841]

What happens to FSU now that their QB is hurt IF they win out?

Biggest speculative controversy at the moment.

 

[doctornick]

Just an update to all this...I was at a conference last week so I didnt get to react to the CFP rankings. With us being ahead of Ole Miss and (more importantly) Oklahoma, that is telling and positions us well for a NY6 bid.

• Louisville being right ahead of us is also interesting. Seems pretty clear, the CFP committee views them as the worst 1-loss team. If they had lost to Miami, that would have boosted our spot and likely dropped them several spots. If they lose vs Kentucky this weekend and lose in ACC champ game, they are out of NY6. Given their spot just ahead of us, even if they win this week, they likely drop below us (assuming we win) if they lose the ACC champ game.
• Oregon State losing eliminates them from NY6 consideration though that it was a matter of time since they played Wash and Oregon in back to back weeks.
• If Missouri would have lost to Florida, that would have further and likely cemented our spot (again, assuming we win vs MSU). Can't see them losing to Arkansas but stranger things have happened.
• Ole Miss won so no real impact given it was vs UL-Monroe. Can't see them losing to Miss State but we are ahead of them so we win and they win, we should stay ahead of them.
• Oklahoma had a close-ish game vs BYU but pulled it out. Gabriel being hurt may impact them vs TCU but according to recent reports, he is likely to play. If they lose to TCU, that only solidifies our standing.

Rooting interest this week:

• Kentucky over Louisville (see above)
• Arkansas over Missouri (see above)
• Mississippi State over Ole Miss (see above)
• TCU over Oklahoma (see above)
• Iowa over Nebraska (improves the quality of win)
• Auburn over Alabama (not at all likely but a loss here and a loss vs Georgia knocks them out of the NY6)
• WVU over Baylor (improves our quality of win)
• The field swallows up the OSU and Michigan teams

Since I'll be in Cabo for Thanksgiving through mid-next week, here would be my rooting interest for championship week:

• OSU/Mich over Iowa (OSU and Mich are in the NY6 regardless so need to eliminate Iowa from an auto-bid)
• Texas wins the B12. They are likely in win or lose but we do not want a 2nd B12 team in the NY6 as that will definitely knock us out.
• Wash or Oregon are the Pac12 champ. There is a scenario where Arizona gets into the champ game and if they were to win, that would mean Oregon/Wash/Arizona all get in thus knocking out a spot for us.
• Florida State wins the ACC. Win or lose they get a NY6 spot but that may not be the same for Louisville so best to knock Louisville out to secure a spot.

How about rooting for Oregon St over Oregon this week? Given the Ducks a second loss (and then maybe a third if they lose to Washington in the championship) and Oregon St unlikely to pass us with 3 losses already.

 

[lazydave841]

How about rooting for Oregon St over Oregon this week? Given the Ducks a second loss (and then maybe a third if they lose to Washington in the championship) and Oregon St unlikely to pass us with 3 losses already.

Eye test people might give credit to the Beavers (better win than us) then turn around and not discredit Oregon losing in the ccg.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

Very nice breakdown. Iowa ad WVU don't really do much for us though win or lose truthfully but it can't hurt.

Thanks. I agree those wins are aren't going to help a whole lot but when it comes to deciding how is ranked higher between PSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Louisville--every bit helps.

Yes, I've got Penn State Blue colored glasses on but...

• Ole Miss should remain below us. They have 2 ranked wins but 1 of those is vs Tulane which I dont give a lot of stock in. Our losses are better than theirs. We are #6 in SP+ and they are #16.
• Perhaps, I am biased but I think Missouri should be below us. They have 1 ranked win (K-State). We have 1 as well (Iowa). According to the CFP, Iowa is ranked higher. They have a respective loss vs UGA but also 10 point loss to LSU. We are #6 in the SP+ rankings and Mizzu is #17.
• Louisville should be below all of the teams, including us. They have 1 good win (ND) but again Iowa is ranked higher than ND. They are #19 in SP+. They have 5 one-score wins. All of our wins are by 9 or more. I think the CFP is just waiting for their 2nd loss so they can really drop them.
• Admittedly, I think Oklahoma is the team that should be ahead of us by virtue of the Texas win. Their losses are by a total of 8 points. Both were away games. Both to 8 or 9 win teams (assuming both win this weekend).

 

[djm_psu_alum]

How about rooting for Oregon St over Oregon this week? Given the Ducks a second loss (and then maybe a third if they lose to Washington in the championship) and Oregon St unlikely to pass us with 3 losses already.

If Oregon loses to Oregon State and Arizona beats ASU, Arizona goes to the P12 champ game (not clear why but the Pac 12 has made it clear that is the scenario). So a 2nd loss for the Ducks, leaves them at 10-2 with no possibility of a 3rd loss.

 

[djm_psu_alum]

What happens to FSU now that their QB is hurt IF they win out?

Biggest speculative controversy at the moment.

CFP can move a team down due to an injury but they also have the 2014 case with OSU where their starting QB got hurt but it had no effect (they actually jumped Baylor and TCU after winning the B10 championship).

 

[NedFromYork]

Does West Virginia get ranked if they win this week? 8-4 (6-3 B12)

 

[lazydave841]

If Oregon loses to Oregon State and Arizona beats ASU, Arizona goes to the P12 champ game (not clear why but the Pac 12 has made it clear that is the scenario). So a 2nd loss for the Ducks, leaves them at 10-2 with no possibility of a 3rd loss.

Latest Pac-12 standings with tiebreaker rules, remaining schedule, more

Here’s how the Pac-12 looks as of now, and which games will matter to determine the conference champion in Las Vegas.

dknetwork.draftkings.com

 

[LandoComando]

Does West Virginia get ranked if they win this week? 8-4 (6-3 B12)

No chance--best win is....TCU or BYU, right?

 

[LandoComando]

What happens to FSU now that their QB is hurt IF they win out?

Biggest speculative controversy at the moment.

I think they're in trouble if Bama beats Georgia
They better be impressive on Saturday