Bowl guru Jerry Palm projects Penn State to finish 10-2 and play Oklahoma in Peach
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This spells it out a bit more succinctly: Pac 12 scenarios
Latest Pac-12 standings with tiebreaker rules, remaining schedule, more
Here’s how the Pac-12 looks as of now, and which games will matter to determine the conference champion in Las Vegas.dknetwork.draftkings.com
Agree though if they do great (ala OSU in 2014), maybe the CFP doesn't penalize them. Of course, the ACC is probably 5th in terms of conference quality this year so they aren't going to get a break.
Let's say Georgia beats Alabama, Texas wins B12, Oregon wins P12, FSU loses to Florida but wins ACC, and Mich/OSU wins B10. Georgia is in and B10 winner is in. Which one-loss conference champ gets left out: Texas, Oregon, or FSU? I would assume FSU. But what if they beat UF and Louisville? Would you leave them out over one-loss Oregon and Texas?
Texas/FSU is tough there. Probably Texas is in because of the Bama win. Oregon would be safely in.
Scenario 2 Texas would be out IMO
Being impressive wouldn't hurt, but if they don't penalize Missouri this week for a 2 pt win over Florida (who lost its QB during the game) then I think FSU is safe with a win.
FSU is DEFINITELY out with a loss this weekend. However, if they are top 4 going into the CCG, might they get in regardless of the result vs Louisville? TCU did last year.
As much as we all want better OOC games, the committee proves week by week that not losing matters more than who you lose to. And the CCGs are becoming worthless. If UGA is in regardless, why not job out to Bama and try to get 2 in the playoff? SEC! SEC! More playoff money for all.
Maybe--I think it's different when putting a team into the playoff as opposed to a NY6 but who knows what they actually do. It's all speculation but I do think the committee would love FSU to lose a game.
Ah. What do they care? It's their job to pick the best 4. No more, no less. Doesn't mean it has to be popular. 3 was mad when we had 2. 5 is mad while it's 4. Until it's a true playoff where you qualify entirely on the field, it's a beauty pageant for entrance.
The loser of Michigan and OSU has as much to fuss over as any other 1 loss team will. And I'm cheering for a meteor when they play.
We know I want a 24 team playoff with all conference winners so no disagreement from me.
I just heard that odds are we will end up in the Cotton Bowl. The reasoning is that the Cotton Bowl got stuck with Tulane last year and doesn't want the same team twice plus they want to be thrown a bone. And being in TX, they don't want U-TX. Rather U-TX wants to go out of state. That puts TX in the Peach opposite Tulane. Fiesta will get tOSU vs AL in the NYD 6 premier game.
Still games to be played but this makes sense to me.
Still games to be played but this makes sense to me.
That would be fine with me. It seems that this matchup is destined to happen, whether it's in Atlanta or Arlington.
Put us in Atlanta with Texas.
I think OSU is near locked into Orange Bowl unless they make the playoff or send Bama.
The problem is, where does the committee put Tulane? It won't be in the Cotton as this is where they played last year.
Tulane is a good possibility to lose this week. Then it might be the mighty Liberty Flames!
The Tulane/Cotton part makes sense, but not sure how much to believe the projections. The Orange Bowl is supposed to get the highest available SEC/B1G team, so that would not allow for this Fiesta matchup.
Would assume PAC runner up was one of Fiesta participants, so a minor difference is possible.
The only thing is the Orange Bowl needs to take the highest ranked SEC/Big Ten team not in the playoffs....if Georgia beats Bama that will be OSU with one loss over Bama with two losses. The Peach Bowl is also campaigning hard for us.
I think Tulane loses this weekend to SMU so that would means if Liberty beats NM State at home Friday night, Liberty is in the NY6. Since it is a smaller school with a smaller fanbase, they will send them to the Peach because Altanta is the closest of the NY6 bowls to Lynchburg, Virginia.
That quite simply would be the worst case scenario for a NY6 Bowl, unless you're looking for an almost certain victory. I want to see this team challenged by a big time opponent.
dang. don't want to play liberty or whatever. Waste of time. I wonder what the committee will use to decide. I'd put Tulane/Liberty into a bowl with Missouri. Only Missouri would be happy to play Tulane. Everyone else wants to play any other team.
- Orange: tOSU vs AL
- Fiesta: Oregon/Wash vs TX
- Cotton: OK vs PSU
- Peach: Missou vs Tulane
If FSU loses to Louisville, I would think the Cotton Bowl would want Bama if they lose to UGA since OSU would be ahead of them and go to the Orange then Missouri will go to the Fiesta and play the Pac 12 Runner Up
If FSU Loses:
Peach- PSU vs NY6
Orange- OSU vs Louisville
Cotton- Alabama-Florida State
Fiesta-Missouri vs Washington
Rose- Michigan vs Oregon
Sugar- Georgia vs Texas
If FSU Wins:
Peach- PSU vs NY6
Orange- OSU vs Louisville
Cotton- Missouri vs Texas
Fiesta-Alabama vs Washington
Rose- Michigan vs Oregon
Sugar- Georgia vs Florida State
Orange ends up with Louisville pretty much regardless of what occurs. They beat FSU, it just keeps FSU out of the playoff, but in another NY6.
Remember Louisville is pretty much locked into the Orange Bowl no matter what. If they beat FSU, they go there as ACC Champ. If they lose, FSU is most likely in the playoff and they will be the ACC representative in the Orange Bowl. The only way Louisville does not go to the Orange Bowl is FSU is left out of the playoff as an unbeaten conference champion which means Louisville would be out of NY6.
I'm still trying to understand how they determine which bowl gets "stuck" with the mandatory G5 team. Really none of them would want that team (whether it is Tulane or Liberty, etc). Cotton got stuck with Tulane last season. In 2022, Cinci went to the Playoffs. In 2020, the Peach got Cincinnati. In 2019, the Cotton got Memphis (versus us!). In 2018, it was the Fiesta with Central Florida.
The Orange can't get a G5 team (it is ACC vs Big Ten/SEC). It feels like it should be the Fiesta getting a G5 team is they are doing a rotation of sorts since they have gone the longest with such a team, though they seem like the worst option geographically to send a Tulane or Liberty to.
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Brett McMurphy is pretty accurate when predicting bowl games. I believe he was the first to say last year if OSU doesn't make the playoff then the Rose Bowl would take PSU over OSU due to OSU being there the year before. That wasn't the case but he does these every Monday during the season so he follows it pretty well.
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It's possible that if Louisville loses then the Orange might take NC State instead of Louisville if NC State ends up higher ranked in the CFP poll. Doesn't change the rest of the bowls since it is still a lower ranked ACC team going to a NY6 bowl, but my point is that it might not be Louisville
Since the NY6 started in 2014...it has been:
2014 Boise State Fiesta
2015 Houston Peach
2016 Western Michigan Cotton
2017 UCF Peach
2018 UCF Fiesta
2019 Memphis Cotton
2020 Cincinnati Peach
2021 Cincinnati Cotton Playoff Game
2022 Tulane Cotton
Rose, Orange and Sugar have the conference tie ins where the Peach, Fiesta and Cotton do not. I think it is strictly logistical and geographical where the Group of 5 team goes.
Correct....Louisville beat NC State head to head and both would have the same amount of losses which means most likely Louisville will be higher ranked on Sunday.
My expectation would be Louisville ranked higher and going to the Orange if FSU wins, but I wouldn't be shocked if NC State ended up higher. In particular, I'm not sure that the Orange would really want a Louisville team on a two game losing streak. Especially if some of the fan base already travelled to the ACC Championship game and might not also want to do a bowl.
Not sure how much influence the bowls have on the choices/rankings though.
What a difference a few weeks and a couple of losses makes. I've adjusted to the disappointment that PSU will not, again this year, be in the CFB Playoff. I now want to see which NY6 bowl game they will be in, and look forward to the Lions beating whichever opponent it is.
Part of it, also, is the fact that the Peach Bowl still doesn't register much, at least not with me. it got a HUGE boost from being included in the rotation for the CFB playoffs, but in my view it still falls well below the level of the:
1. Rose Bowl
2. Orange Bowl
3. Sugar Bowl
4. Fiesta Bowl
Due to its inclusion in the CFB playoff rotation, I would put the Peach Bowl at No. 6, just behind the Cotton Bowl, with perhaps the Citrus Bowl at No. 7.
I pity whoever has to play Tulane. Anything short of annihilating the Green Wave will be looked on as a disappointment.
Remember Tulane did beat USC in the Cotton Bowl last season, although I realize that USC probably wasn't that motivated after losing to Utah.
There's an obvious PR benefit in granting one of 12 slots in the NY6 bowl games to a non-Power 5 (soon to be Power 4) team. The non-Power 5 conferences have a chance to grab at the brass ring, and the people running the Power 5 conferences can bloviate about how they have made it possible for "anyone" to win; even a small school Cinderella.
The downside is that the bowl game involving the Cinderella team is generally a ratings disaster, and a complete no-win proposition for the Power 5 team selected to play in it. Man do I hope that PSU is not the unlucky Power 5 team selected to play Tulane (or whoever the Cinderella team turns out to be). I'd almost rather see the Lions play Pitt in their bowl game. At least they could run up the score without being concerned that people will say "You bully! You beat up on Cinderella."
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