BWI Wise Guys handicapping thread.....

[Grant Green]

Did anyone grab anything with the new lines yesterday? Some of these games have looked pretty intriguing to me so far.

Georgia Tech -7.5 vs. Pitt - Pitt is on a 2 game losing streak and has to go on the road to open conference play. This is a tough spot for them, and their S&P numbers (albeit early in the season) are quite terrible (their non pre-season included numbers have them 124th in the country right now).

Mississippi State +7/+6.5 @ Georgia - This line is way too high given how good Mississippi State has been this season, it should be Georgia -3 imo, instead you can get 4 more points.

Syracuse +23.5 @ LSU - I know this is a night game in Tiger Stadium, but Syracuse is too good to be a 24 point dog against an LSU team that isn't an elite offense. Cuse could have a big special teams edge in this one too, which could certainly help them with field position, and Cuse is fairly well rounded on offense and defense. I expect an LSU win but something like LSU 31 Syracuse 14 is very much in play here.

Pitt will be way undervalued after that loss, so this may be a good one. I bet that number goes up. I upgraded Miss St and my number is still -7.3 for UGA. I think UGA is undervalued, so not sure about this one. I have to look into the handicap for SYR. They always burn me when I bet on them. I do like Dino Babers better than Orgeron.

I bet 1/2 unit on
Western Kentucky, -9.5 vs Ball St.My number is -14 and I think Ball St may have a RB out. Pure numbers grab.

Purdue +10 vs UMich.. My number is +6.7, but this scares me a bit. UM is going to break out at some point and Purdue will come to earth. If the line moves a lot, I may buy back on UM.

Cal +16 vs USC. My number is +10.8. I watched Cal the other night vs Ole Miss and they looked legit. Surprisingly, their defense looked dynamic.

Tennessee -27 vs Umass. I took it mostly because I think the line will go up. Pretty sure Breneman is out and I have a feeling he is a big part of their offense.

 

[greenmanRD]

I upgraded Miss St and my number is still -7.3 for UGA. I think UGA is undervalued, so not sure about this one.

That's interesting to me. Mississippi State has been very good so far, maybe they are due for a reality check.

 

[Grant Green]

That's interesting to me. Mississippi State has been very good so far, maybe they are due for a reality check.

I also have UGA's home field advantage at 4.75 points. This is not my number. I stole it from a pro who published all of his home field numbers. I haven't factored in any situational points yet though. I'll have to dig into this one a bit more.

 

[Grant Green]

That's interesting to me. Mississippi State has been very good so far, maybe they are due for a reality check.

Hope you got your Miss St bet in because that line has moved to 5. Your call is looking good so far.

 

[Erial_Lion]

348 FAU/Buffalo under. Most of the board is at 59, but still some 59.5's hanging (that's what I got it at).

 

[Erial_Lion]

374 Auburn/Missouri under 60 (even a few stray 60.5's out there)

 

[Grant Green]

374 Auburn/Missouri under 60 (even a few stray 60.5's out there)

Yeah, Missou's offense is not good.
Erial, I see another game similar to Toldeo/Tulsa last week. I got Maryland vs UCF early at over 67. This line has dropped 64.5. Do you know if the same service recommended an under play on this game? Seems like a strange drop in line considering how fast the UCF likes to play and how many points UMD has put up (I know one of the games was Towson).

 

[Grant Green]

Some interesting trends that I heard. I usually ignore all the silly trends that people put out, unless I see a good reason for them.

Week 4 non-conference games are hitting the over at a 60% ats rate (not sure the timeframe).
In week 4, a team coming off a loss and favored by at least 7 is 58%ats.

Watch your weather forecasts. Look for rain, and especially wind, when looking at totals. I love betting unders and weather plays into that huge.

 

[Sharkies]

Yeah, Missou's offense is not good.
Erial, I see another game similar to Toldeo/Tulsa last week. I got Maryland vs UCF early at over 67. This line has dropped 64.5. Do you know if the same service recommended an under play on this game? Seems like a strange drop in line considering how fast the UCF likes to play and how many points UMD has put up (I know one of the games was Towson).

I got Mizzou and the points...
I like the UMD v UCF game and the over

The real question is:
Should I hedge my fandom on the Iowa game and take the points???

 

[greenmanRD]

@Grant Green

Your UMass/Tennessee play is looking good so far too.

I just realized I missed the boat on this Rutgers/Nebraska over/under. It opened at 51 in of places, I should've snagged that under when I had the chance.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Erial, I see another game similar to Toldeo/Tulsa last week. I got Maryland vs UCF early at over 67. This line has dropped 64.5. Do you know if the same service recommended an under play on this game? Seems like a strange drop in line considering how fast the UCF likes to play and how many points UMD has put up (I know one of the games was Towson).

They don't have anything in that game.

 

[Grant Green]

@Grant Green

Your UMass/Tennessee play is looking good so far too.

I just realized I missed the boat on this Rutgers/Nebraska over/under. It opened at 51 in of places, I should've snagged that under when I had the chance.

People love betting Tennessee. I think that line continues to go up.

Wow. I missed that Nebraska game. Maybe buy back on the over now.

I got Mizzou and the points...
I like the UMD v UCF game and the over

The real question is:
Should I hedge my fandom on the Iowa game and take the points???

I respect you going for the very undervalued Missou. Auburn does have Miss St next week too, so look ahead spot? Not sure if I can bring myself to bet Mizzou right now though.
Get that UMD over now before it goes back up.

Don't bet our game. I think Wadley is a go, but he is a little dinged and the 2nd guy is out. Definitely a good handicap, but something tells me they are going to play us tough.

 

[Grant Green]

348 FAU/Buffalo under. Most of the board is at 59, but still some 59.5's hanging (that's what I got it at).

Don't look now, but it's up to 63.5. I may hit it now.
I've had a number of plays that moved the wrong way on me this week.

 

[Grant Green]

Some more quick hitters
Mendenhal likes to play a 3-3-5 defense which can really mess with a qb that hasn't seen it before. Also, Boise has struggled to cover at home and I seem to remember a lot of unders last year at home. Uva plus the points for first half or full game worth considering.

App state is up to +5 against wake forest. Wake a little overrated?

San diego st is the real deal. It's not like the air force option will be a surprise to them. Maybe this line should tell me to stay away but seems like too much value on sdst. Hoping to get-3

 

[PeetzPoolBoy]

Boise has struggled to cover at home and I seem to remember a lot of unders last year at home. Uva plus the points for first half our game worth considering.

I couldn't help but notice your use of the term "our" In relation to the Boise game?

 

[Grant Green]

I couldn't help but notice your use of the term "our" In relation to the Boise game?

Edited. Should have been "or".

 

[Grant Green]

Just got a live bet on psu -12.5. I like the way this game is going so far.

 

[greenmanRD]

Went 2-1, pleased after an 0-fer last week. I thought about grabbing Georgia late but couldn't pull the trigger. I had a funny feeling I was wrong about Mississippi State in that spot, but didn't stick with it.

 

[Sharkies]

Just got a live bet on psu -12.5. I like the way this game is going so far.

Got burned on this one... even asked if I should hedge on the Iowa line... oh well, better luck this week.

 

[Grant Green]

Went 2-1, pleased after an 0-fer last week. I thought about grabbing Georgia late but couldn't pull the trigger. I had a funny feeling I was wrong about Mississippi State in that spot, but didn't stick with it.

Yeah. I didn't want to tell you but I went big on Georgia. I hit them a second time when it dropped to-2.5. Strange line move through-3..

 

[Grant Green]

Got burned on this one... even asked if I should hedge on the Iowa line... oh well, better luck this week.

I would still make the same bet again. The way psu dominated the stats, they beat that spread more often than not. Give Iowa credit for playing tough but they should not have been in that game.

 

[Grant Green]

I couldn't help but notice your use of the term "our" In relation to the Boise game?

Hopefully you also noticed Virginia kicking their ass

 

[Grant Green]

Alright boys, what is everyone thinking this week? I had a so-so week last week, but still made a small profit. Thank you UGA for putting me over the top.

Starting with some early games.

Texas giving 6.5 to Iowa St. My number is much lower, factoring in a night game in Ames, where ISU is tough. both teams off a bye, so no adv there. Really hoping the public comes in on UT after remember their USC game and line goes to 7.

As with every year, Duke is underrated. They are getting 6.5 pts at home vs a Miami team that plays FSU next week. Also a night game.

Check the weather forecast in Pullman on Friday night. Windy with showers? Look at the under. WSU defense a little underrated. Slight lean to USC at -3.5 (or lower preferably). I think WSU is very good, but they really haven't played anyone yet.

 

[Grant Green]

Quick note. The total on MSU vs Auburn is up to 53. Both teams playing really good defense and not great offense. Look for a lot of rushing and clock burning. Under may be a consideration.

 

[BisbeeMike]

Total at MGM grand at 64 and line at 17.5. Other lines are at 18 and one of them is at 18.5, up from yesterday. Lets see if there is movement tomorrow, because I think Tom Allen is sandbagging about a few of his injuries, but I think a couple of them are real. Hoff might be out.

 

[MilesBarkley]

Iowa State outright over Texas tonight
Duke covering 6.5 vs Miami Friday night
Iowa covering 3 vs Michigan State on Saturday

 

[Grant Green]

Iowa State outright over Texas tonight
Duke covering 6.5 vs Miami Friday night
Iowa covering 3 vs Michigan State on Saturday

Like the first two. You are actually getting 3.5 for Iowa.

I think Tom Allen is sandbagging about a few of his injuries, but I think a couple of them are real. Hoff might be out.

Interesting. Why do you think that? I kind of lean Indiana and the under on this one, but Hoff may impact that by a point or two.

 

[BisbeeMike]

I'm already on Iowa covering vs Michigan State, and I took the under with ISU vs Texas.

 

[BisbeeMike]

Like the first two. You are actually getting 3.5 for Iowa.


Interesting. Why do you think that? I kind of lean Indiana and the under on this one, but Hoff may impact that by a point or two.

I'll try to find the link, one of the wise guys services says there are 1 or 2 players out, but they're playing a shell game with who it might be.

 

[BisbeeMike]

Looking good $ wise on my Texas pick for the under. Nearing the 4th and 14-7 with the number at 61.5 Had a good feeling about that. NOT as certain as my other pick this week taking the Hawkeyes, but it would be nice to go 2-0 this week. So far heading into week five, I'm at 8-2, my personal best record to date at this point in the season. Credit to my new service which I've had GREAT success with, DB.

 

[Grant Green]

Looking good $ wise on my Texas pick for the under. Nearing the 4th and 14-7 with the number at 61.5 Had a good feeling about that. NOT as certain as my other pick this week taking the Hawkeyes, but it would be nice to go 2-0 this week. So far heading into week five, I'm at 8-2, my personal best record to date at this point in the season. Credit to my new service which I've had GREAT success with, DB.

Nice work. I made a live bet on the under when I saw how much Texas was running the ball. I got 59.5

 

[wbcincy]

My two big bets for this week were Georgia -10 (though I can't take credit here after the fact) and Oklahoma State -10 that is about to start.

 

[BisbeeMike]

My two big bets for this week were Georgia -10 (though I can't take credit here after the fact) and Oklahoma State -10 that is about to start.

GREAT bets. Good job.

 

[KnightSlayer]

Iowa State outright over Texas tonight
Duke covering 6.5 vs Miami Friday night
Iowa covering 3 vs Michigan State on Saturday

So, how much did you lose?

 

[MilesBarkley]

So, how much did you lose?

That was a piss poor weekend...
At least I'm still up quite a few from my big upset weekend 2 weeks ago.

 

[Grant Green]

That was a piss poor weekend...
At least I'm still up quite a few from my big upset weekend 2 weeks ago.

Happens to the best of us. I felt pretty confident in both Duke and Iowa St. Oh well.

 

[MilesBarkley]

Happens to the best of us. I felt pretty confident in both Duke and Iowa St. Oh well.

Gonna win some, gonna lose some

 

[royboy]

Gonna win some, gonna lose some

Not a gambler myself, but I heard the KC Chiefs vs Redskins game last night had an ending that was a shock to those betting on the game. I may have this not exactly right, but I believe the Chiefs were favored by 7 and the over/under was 47. Washington tied the score at 20-20 late, and then the Chiefs kicked a FG with 4 seconds left to go up 23-20. But then, Washington tried frequent laterals on the kickoff in a desperate attempt to score, but ended up fumbling with the Chiefs' Justin Houston picking it up and going in for a TD.

The final result -- Chiefs 29 Redskins 20
the Chiefs cover the spread, and the over becomes the winning position.
An absolute gift for some bettors, and a curse to others.

 

[Grant Green]

Not a gambler myself, but I heard the KC Chiefs vs Redskins game last night had an ending that was a shock to those betting on the game. I may have this not exactly right, but I believe the Chiefs were favored by 7 and the over/under was 47. Washington tied the score at 20-20 late, and then the Chiefs kicked a FG with 4 seconds left to go up 23-20. But then, Washington tried frequent laterals on the kickoff in a desperate attempt to score, but ended up fumbling with the Chiefs' Justin Houston picking it up and going in for a TD.

The final result -- Chiefs 29 Redskins 20
the Chiefs cover the spread, and the over becomes the winning position.
An absolute gift for some bettors, and a curse to others.

I will admit. I had a small bet on the over. Usually that play goes against me. I didn't even know until later because I stopped score checking after kc went up by 3.

 

[KnightSlayer]

Gonna win some, gonna lose some

Yeah, that's why I don't bet very often. I hate losing more than I enjoy winning.