I did too. Got some at -10 and then hit it again at -9. Really surprised it dropped as much as it has. I hope the wise guys are off on this one.
BWI Wise Guys handicapping thread.....
- Thread starter Grant Green
- Start date
Chu-ching bitches!
I hope everyone cashed on PSU. I couldn't have been more confident on that game - as mentioned I hit that line twice. Almost hit it a third time when it went -7.5.
The under on my weather games is now at 11-4-1. I pushed on the Wisky-MD game this week when idiot Chryst went for a FG on 4th and inches with less than a minute to play at MD 5 yd line. WTF? Unfortunately if you bet that under later in the week, you lost.
I tripled down on WSU-CU since I could see how hard it was raining in the PNW on Saturday.
Also, the two teams off a bye with winning pct of 70%+(laying less than 10 pts) were PSU and ND . Both crushed the line. I believe it applies to NC St, and unfortunately Ohio State this week.
The under on my weather games is now at 11-4-1. I pushed on the Wisky-MD game this week when idiot Chryst went for a FG on 4th and inches with less than a minute to play at MD 5 yd line. WTF? Unfortunately if you bet that under later in the week, you lost.
I tripled down on WSU-CU since I could see how hard it was raining in the PNW on Saturday.
Also, the two teams off a bye with winning pct of 70%+(laying less than 10 pts) were PSU and ND . Both crushed the line. I believe it applies to NC St, and unfortunately Ohio State this week.
Grant, or others, what kind of spread are you seeing for PSU vs tOSU?
In looking at the PSU season to date, what are they vs the spread?
failing to cover for just Iowa?
In looking at the PSU season to date, what are they vs the spread?
failing to cover for just Iowa?
PSU is 5-1-1 ATS with the push against Pitt depending on where you bet it.
Line is OSU -6.5. Opened at -7.5, which is pretty close to where I have it.
thanks....I get that tOSU is playing well and has a homefield advantage, but I don't understand the size of the spread
judging by the results ATS you show above, it just looks like PSU is being under-rated.....again.
I give them a 3.5 to 4 pt adv for home field, and at least a point for a bye and revenge factor.
I do have them rated a few points ahead of PSU, but my power rankings are partially based on the final lines every week (aka market value). FWIW, it was bet down from -7.5 through the key number of 7.
Did not play the PSU game because I'm always squeamish about betting PSU to cover (unless it's an obvious one like the Georgia State game) and when I thought more about the game, I remembered that 3 of the 4 PSU Whiteout wins were close. So I just decided to not play it and enjoy the game as a fan, instead of an anguishing gambler. Ended up 3-4 on the slate because Minnesota decided to not play pass defense in the last minute of the game that would have had them covering by a half point. Try it once again this week.
Hey people. Not sure what to make of the weather forecast this week. Any tips or thoughts appreciated. I see a cold air mass moving into the midwest Friday-Sat with front that looks to bring showers to rain. Looks like some breeze here and there, but nothing to strong.
Looks like the best chance to get cold/showers/wind is in Iowa, so look to the unders for TCU vs Iowa St and Minny at Iowa. I'm less sure about Iowa since they have burned me on unders in the past by getting long TD runs in the 4th quarter (smaller bet on this game). Iowa St is still on their backup QB. He played well coming in against OU and then starting against TTech, but both pass defenses are weak. Time for some regression from him? Unfortunately, the pros must have been ahead of me and hit this under, driving the line down a few points.
Also possible weather in Muncie, IN on Friday night for Toledo at Ball St. Pros hit this one already, but I bet it anyway.
It looks like there could be a number of games in OH, Kent, Mich, WV, Tenn that could get some rain (maybe not much wind though) on Sat morning. Will have to look again tomorrow and Friday to see when it will hit.
Looks like the best chance to get cold/showers/wind is in Iowa, so look to the unders for TCU vs Iowa St and Minny at Iowa. I'm less sure about Iowa since they have burned me on unders in the past by getting long TD runs in the 4th quarter (smaller bet on this game). Iowa St is still on their backup QB. He played well coming in against OU and then starting against TTech, but both pass defenses are weak. Time for some regression from him? Unfortunately, the pros must have been ahead of me and hit this under, driving the line down a few points.
Also possible weather in Muncie, IN on Friday night for Toledo at Ball St. Pros hit this one already, but I bet it anyway.
It looks like there could be a number of games in OH, Kent, Mich, WV, Tenn that could get some rain (maybe not much wind though) on Sat morning. Will have to look again tomorrow and Friday to see when it will hit.
I don't know a thing about gambling. Here's something that's not a gamble: PSU 35, OSU 17.
MARK IT DOWN!
MARK IT DOWN!
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According to Vegas insider, PSU sits at 5-2 overall against the spread, 1-1 on the road. OSU is 4-3 vs the spread but just 1-3 at home. PSU is on an incredible run vs the spread after the Michigan game last year and they continue to be undervalued. Honestly, I think the wrong team is favored in this one.. I think PSU should be favored by 3. The second half of last season saw PSU get their offense rolling. I think it's about to happen again. There were adjustments made by opposing defenses to what PSU did last year and now Moorhead has countered those adjustments and the offense is ready to explode. Add in a much improved defense and the Penn State team is vastly superior to last year's team. This year's version of Ohio State appears very similar to last year's version. Very good but pretty much the same team that lost last year.
Yeah, depending on the number you got on the Pitt game (close to push), they are 5-1-1 ATS this year. They were 10-3-1 ATS last year. Hard to go against that record.
I think the line is about right, but I'm really starting to feel like PSU can at least cover this game. OSU does not have a stellar secondary, as we saw in parts of the IU game. They didn't have much of a passing game against an OU team that has a bad pass defense. They have looked better since than, but against teams like Maryland, Rutgers, and Army. I think if this goes back to +7, I will bet PSU and may consider a piece of the money line.
Games I have been watching this week:
BC +4 vs FSU -- Yeah, I know, seems pretty far-fetched that it should be this close but that's sort of been the story with FSU this season and BC has been red-hot the last 2 weeks on the road.
Louisville -3 at Wake -- Another feel play as I don't think Wake's D can keep Lamar Jackson under wraps. They wilted late against the G Tech option and Jackson brings a lot more weapons thru the air.
Penn State +6 1/2 at O$U -- I think PSU wins the game outright. I said earlier in the thread how squeamish I get about betting PSU but I feel real confident about how things are going to go in Columbus even if O'Neill's crew is doing the game.
A&M +1 1/2 vs. Miss State -- Aggies coming off a bye and playing at home after beating Florida and giving Bama their best opposition of the season. Take State out of Starkvegas and they've lost by 67 combined in their last 2 road starts.
Wyoming +2 vs. New Mexico -- The last time New Mex went on the road, they got shutout by Fresno. They didn't look all that great at home against Colorado State last week. Altitude won't make a difference since New Mexico plays at altitude at home as well. Not quite understanding this line.
Other games that intrigue me if the lines move a little bit:
OK State -7 1/2 (now) at WVU -- defense optional
Sparty -2 1/2 at NW -- trap game?
Iowa State +6 1/2 vs TCU -- can the backup keep up the roll?
BC +4 vs FSU -- Yeah, I know, seems pretty far-fetched that it should be this close but that's sort of been the story with FSU this season and BC has been red-hot the last 2 weeks on the road.
Louisville -3 at Wake -- Another feel play as I don't think Wake's D can keep Lamar Jackson under wraps. They wilted late against the G Tech option and Jackson brings a lot more weapons thru the air.
Penn State +6 1/2 at O$U -- I think PSU wins the game outright. I said earlier in the thread how squeamish I get about betting PSU but I feel real confident about how things are going to go in Columbus even if O'Neill's crew is doing the game.
A&M +1 1/2 vs. Miss State -- Aggies coming off a bye and playing at home after beating Florida and giving Bama their best opposition of the season. Take State out of Starkvegas and they've lost by 67 combined in their last 2 road starts.
Wyoming +2 vs. New Mexico -- The last time New Mex went on the road, they got shutout by Fresno. They didn't look all that great at home against Colorado State last week. Altitude won't make a difference since New Mexico plays at altitude at home as well. Not quite understanding this line.
Other games that intrigue me if the lines move a little bit:
OK State -7 1/2 (now) at WVU -- defense optional
Sparty -2 1/2 at NW -- trap game?
Iowa State +6 1/2 vs TCU -- can the backup keep up the roll?
Stanford (-20.5) vs Oregon state (Thursday). The only dumpster fire worse than Knoxville is in Corvallis. Stanford, rallying late in the season like they usually do and making a push for a heisman contender on a night game on national tv.
WVU (+7.5) vs ok state. As long as that number is over a touchdown, I'm good with it. WVU at home in a ranked vs ranked game. Love ranked home dogs. Wil Grier can put up points with the best of them.
Indiana (-4) vs Maryland. Indiana has had easily the worst schedule in the big ten so far having played their four conference games against PSU, OSU, UM, and MSU. Ouch. All of those games gave them something to hang their hat on, particularly their defense. This team has to win 3 more to get bowl eligible, and I think they start this week. MD showed something early this year, but sorry, 17th string QB's don't win in the big ten unless you're playing Rutgers or Illinois.
Florida (+13) vs Georgia. A little known secret about Georgia, they've played exactly one worthy opponent. Rivalry game. Gators with their back against the wall. Double digit dog. I don't like Florida to win, but their defense is good enough to keep them from losing by 13. I liked this line a lot better when it opened at 14.5.
PSU (+6) vs OSU. Outright. Total homer pick. But seriously, JT Barrett put up the exact same numbers against these last five teams that he put up against garbage teams last year. It's not improvement, it's overwhelming talent. I think this OSU team is worse than last years team, and I think this PSU team is better than last years team. PSU has also been tested at Iowa in a hostile environment, and by a talented ranked team in Michigan.
Georgia tech (+14) vs Clemson. Without Kelly Bryant, clemson could have some serious issues. Though he's been cleared from his concussion, his whole game is predicated on his running ability (only 4 pass TD) and he's got an ankle issue. Those don't heal in two weeks.
Texas tech (+19.5) vs Oklahoma. Tech was ranked 25 a week ago. Oklahoma has been playing one possession games all season because their defense is garbage and they know they can win any game at the end behind mayfield. Give me the points in a shootout.
Arizona (+3) vs Washington state. Khalil Tate. Just need an excuse to watch him play.
WVU (+7.5) vs ok state. As long as that number is over a touchdown, I'm good with it. WVU at home in a ranked vs ranked game. Love ranked home dogs. Wil Grier can put up points with the best of them.
Indiana (-4) vs Maryland. Indiana has had easily the worst schedule in the big ten so far having played their four conference games against PSU, OSU, UM, and MSU. Ouch. All of those games gave them something to hang their hat on, particularly their defense. This team has to win 3 more to get bowl eligible, and I think they start this week. MD showed something early this year, but sorry, 17th string QB's don't win in the big ten unless you're playing Rutgers or Illinois.
Florida (+13) vs Georgia. A little known secret about Georgia, they've played exactly one worthy opponent. Rivalry game. Gators with their back against the wall. Double digit dog. I don't like Florida to win, but their defense is good enough to keep them from losing by 13. I liked this line a lot better when it opened at 14.5.
PSU (+6) vs OSU. Outright. Total homer pick. But seriously, JT Barrett put up the exact same numbers against these last five teams that he put up against garbage teams last year. It's not improvement, it's overwhelming talent. I think this OSU team is worse than last years team, and I think this PSU team is better than last years team. PSU has also been tested at Iowa in a hostile environment, and by a talented ranked team in Michigan.
Georgia tech (+14) vs Clemson. Without Kelly Bryant, clemson could have some serious issues. Though he's been cleared from his concussion, his whole game is predicated on his running ability (only 4 pass TD) and he's got an ankle issue. Those don't heal in two weeks.
Texas tech (+19.5) vs Oklahoma. Tech was ranked 25 a week ago. Oklahoma has been playing one possession games all season because their defense is garbage and they know they can win any game at the end behind mayfield. Give me the points in a shootout.
Arizona (+3) vs Washington state. Khalil Tate. Just need an excuse to watch him play.
I like your moxie on BC. FSU hasn't covered all year. I think you are the right side, but you have more guts than I to bet this one.
Some solid handicapping. Just a forewarning on NM. They did get early sharp action to move the spread from +2 to -1.5. I'm not sure what to make of A&M/MSU. I've heard that sharps were on A&M, but the line moved in MSU's favor (+2 to -1.5). Also, Sumlin has a really bad ATS record off a bye.
Wouldn't MSU be more in the position of a trap game? On the road with PSU up next. NW has Nebraska next.
I'll be with you on PSU if the line gets to 7. I have a feeling that PSU is the public team this week, so that may not happen.
Sorry folks. I read the schedule wrong and Ball St plays tonight, not tomorrow. Weather not looking like much of a factor, but Ball State injury list is.Starting QB and best RB are both out and Ball St has been getting hammered. Probably when the point total has come down.
Yeah, I was referring to Sparty when I mentioned trap game...just wasn't clear on my quick mention.
Haven't quite decided if I'll pull the trigger on BC or not. I have a general rule about betting on traditionally bad teams.
I hear you. Worst bet of the season last week for me was Kansas. I got suckered into the past 5 results vs TCU - all close games. Kansas gained a total of 21 yards - for the whole game!!!! -25 rushing yards. I swear I'll never bet on Kansas again. I feel dirty.
Trying to figure out why a lot of the Vegas books have NCST at +7.5, but offshores have +7. I would love to get NCST at +7.5, but will settle for +7. They have a really good DL and are good against the run, which is ND's strength. Finley has yet to throw in INT this year and ND has made a killing on points off turnovers. NCST off a bye and ND off a big rivalry game. Also, I like Dave Doeren better than Kelly.
After a rough start Baylor has covered 3 of the last 4. I know they have yet to win a game, but last week's comeback proved to me that they are at least trying. They went to a freshman QB, who I believe has done a bit better. Tom Herman is great as an underdog, but not as good as a fav (at Houston at least). Off a tough loss vs OkSt. I think Baylor can keep it close, but hoping that the line gets back to +10.
I came into the season with high hopes for NW, but they started slow. They are typically good at home as a dog and I wonder if MSU is looking ahead to PSU a little bit. If the line doesn't get to +3, I may take NW on the money line.
I already jumped on Washington at -17, but the line moved to -17.5. Still may be some value. They are off a bye with a really good coach vs a really bad coach. UW may also be a little pissed that they got thumped on the road at ASU.
After a rough start Baylor has covered 3 of the last 4. I know they have yet to win a game, but last week's comeback proved to me that they are at least trying. They went to a freshman QB, who I believe has done a bit better. Tom Herman is great as an underdog, but not as good as a fav (at Houston at least). Off a tough loss vs OkSt. I think Baylor can keep it close, but hoping that the line gets back to +10.
I came into the season with high hopes for NW, but they started slow. They are typically good at home as a dog and I wonder if MSU is looking ahead to PSU a little bit. If the line doesn't get to +3, I may take NW on the money line.
I already jumped on Washington at -17, but the line moved to -17.5. Still may be some value. They are off a bye with a really good coach vs a really bad coach. UW may also be a little pissed that they got thumped on the road at ASU.
Yeah, I see PSU +7 -115. I think I may end up passing, unless it goes to 7.5
I saw the BC move and starting to consider it, although 5 and 6 are fairly dead numbers. Did you hit it at +4?
Although we are focusing on college games, as a weather fanatic, I would remiss if I didn't point out that rain and wind will affect the following NFL games:
SF at Phl
ATl at NYJ
LAC at NE (warm weather team from LA)
Dal at Wash
I know that the Phl and ATL point totals have already dropped a few points, but I still grabbed the under
SF at Phl
ATl at NYJ
LAC at NE (warm weather team from LA)
Dal at Wash
I know that the Phl and ATL point totals have already dropped a few points, but I still grabbed the under
Nope...still playing the wait-and-see game. If it goes to 7, it's a no-brainer but I don't think it'll get any higher than 6 1/2.
I don't either. I think they will get hit the other way at +7 and create a bad middle potential. I may play a half a bet on it.
It's an interesting game when the board is painted at 6.5 and the square line that Bovada deals is at 6 with a "name" team like FSU involved.
I saw a -2.5 at -115 flash early in the week. Wish I would have grabbed it and gone for the middle.
FSU closed as a -5 1/2 on my site. I got it at -6 1/2. Who'd have thought that it would go how it did. Wow, are they at rock bottom.
Plays for Saturday already in -- Louisville -3 (got it at -105, it's now gone to +100) and PSU +7. Still may be a money line play on that one too.
Plays for Saturday already in -- Louisville -3 (got it at -105, it's now gone to +100) and PSU +7. Still may be a money line play on that one too.
Plays so far this weekend:
BC +6 1/2 over FSU
Louisville -3 over Wake (eeeeeeesh)
WVU +9 over Ok State (defense optional as I expected)
PSU +7 over OSU
PSU money line at +235 over OSU (sad face)
MSU -2 over NW (ouch)
Iowa St +7 over TCU (that's where the money line bet should have gone)
Washington -17 1/2 over UCLA (thanks above for that tip)
Wyoming even vs. New Mexico (that line was +2 this morning and closed at Wyoming -2 1/2 at kickoff...could have gotten it at Wyoming -30 and you'd still be fine)
aTm +3 1/2 vs. Miss State (Sumlin back on the hot seat)
T Tech +20 vs. Oklahoma
All that means is that I've been spinning my tires today. May take a flyer on Arizona State late night but we'll see.
BC +6 1/2 over FSU
Louisville -3 over Wake (eeeeeeesh)
WVU +9 over Ok State (defense optional as I expected)
PSU +7 over OSU
PSU money line at +235 over OSU (sad face)
MSU -2 over NW (ouch)
Iowa St +7 over TCU (that's where the money line bet should have gone)
Washington -17 1/2 over UCLA (thanks above for that tip)
Wyoming even vs. New Mexico (that line was +2 this morning and closed at Wyoming -2 1/2 at kickoff...could have gotten it at Wyoming -30 and you'd still be fine)
aTm +3 1/2 vs. Miss State (Sumlin back on the hot seat)
T Tech +20 vs. Oklahoma
All that means is that I've been spinning my tires today. May take a flyer on Arizona State late night but we'll see.
I was out of town for much of Saturday, so I didn't get to see if weather truly impacted the games in Iowa. However, the both went under the point total, bringing my weather games to 13-4-1 ATS (I called off the Ball St game since I got the day wrong).
Unfortunately, I'm not seeing anything definitive in the forecast for this weekend. Lot of "chance of showers", but not a ton of wind. I'll post updates if I see a change.
Good news for me and PSU fans this weekend. This is my annual trip to Vegas. I've been doing it since 2008 and have bet on PSU every time. My record is a ridiculous 7-1 ATS (1 bye). Only loss was NW two years ago (should have won). Notable wins include 2008 victory vs OSU and Terrelle Pryor, a smashing of UM in 2009? 2010? with Tate Forcier, and last years crushing of Iowa.
I hate our spot this week vs MSU, but I will bet it anyway and hope the CJF has this team focused, with not dream-crusher hangover.
Unfortunately, I'm not seeing anything definitive in the forecast for this weekend. Lot of "chance of showers", but not a ton of wind. I'll post updates if I see a change.
Good news for me and PSU fans this weekend. This is my annual trip to Vegas. I've been doing it since 2008 and have bet on PSU every time. My record is a ridiculous 7-1 ATS (1 bye). Only loss was NW two years ago (should have won). Notable wins include 2008 victory vs OSU and Terrelle Pryor, a smashing of UM in 2009? 2010? with Tate Forcier, and last years crushing of Iowa.
I hate our spot this week vs MSU, but I will bet it anyway and hope the CJF has this team focused, with not dream-crusher hangover.
There must be a calling for us degenerates on the board to Vegas as I’m here this week as well, though work purposes bring me here.
I saw PSU at 7 1/2 on Monday nite but has since moved to 8-8 1/2. The one I really like is Nc State at home getting 7-71/2 vs Clemson. Haven’t really studied the boards yet but may do so after Game 7 tonite.
Ha. Cool! I'll be at the Westgate sportsbook all day. I'll try to check this thread beforehand if you want to meet up. The westgate is off strip, so not really that easy to get to, but the sportsbook is nice.
I’m at Red Rock in Summerlin and will be at the PGA Tour event most of the day Saturday. Thankfully, there are plenty of ways to be able to watch PSU thanks to modern technology.
Can't believe it never occurred to me until this past Saturday since this stat has been floated by the broadcasters a bunch. Last week was the first time a team has scored on PSU in the first quarter. Most online services do quarter betting and I'll be looking to bet PSU in the 1st.
As rough as this spot is for PSU, Michigan State is coming off of a heartbreaking loss that basically killed their chance at a co-division title unless they win out. I am optimistic for PSU to figure it out and win, but I'd expect this one to be a sweat ATS late.
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