BWI Wise Guys handicapping thread.....

[Grant Green]

I'm curious how many posters like to dabble in wagering and handicapping. I know Erial lion is pretty sharp and recall a few others in the past that seemed to know their stuff.

I thought it would be fun and beneficial to kick around some thoughts on point spreads throughout the season.

Weeks 2 and 3 are interesting weeks for handicapping. Many wise guys view them as over-reaction weeks, where the general public hammers teams that have looked like crap, but aren't really that bad. Northwestern surely fits the bill. Baylor may as well, but God have they looked awful. I'm also looking at BYU this week, even though Mangum may be out. Wisky travels to Provo and has to play at altitude. This number sits at 16.5 and I'm hoping to grab it at 17. Seems like too much value for BYU.

 

[RWCStateFan]

Sorry. Not your guy! I only got 23 points on the Yahoo Pickum last week - and that doesn't even take point spreads into account! LOL!

 

[Erial_Lion]

I don't originate any college football myself, and 2 of the 3 that I follow aren't publicly available so can't share them. The third's plays usually move pretty quickly after he posts them, but the one still hanging out there this week at a nice line is 179 Tulsa/Toledo over 67.5.

My college football handicapping acumen is a lot more general (knowing who to follow, understanding why lines move, knowing not to tease, when to buy points, playing off-market numbers and beating steam, finding bad numbers on parlay cards, etc). I only originate my own plays in international soccer, college basketball, and props/futures from major sports (with some occasional golf, tennis, and professional soccer).

 

[Grant Green]

but the one still hanging out there this week at a nice line is 179 Tulsa/Toledo over 67.5.

.

Funny you bring that game up. I got in early on O74.5. I was shocked when that number tumbled. I feel kind of silly taking a number so high in the first place, but never thought it would go down. Any idea why it dropped? Doesn't look like weather is a factor.

Speaking of which, it looks like rain in the west - Utah, CO, Minny. Maybe some in the SE as well. I'll post if I find some games that could be affected.

 

[cvilleelkscoach]

I'm curious how many posters like to dabble in wagering and handicapping. I know Erial lion is pretty sharp and recall a few others in the past that seemed to know their stuff.

I thought it would be fun and beneficial to kick around some thoughts on point spreads throughout the season.

Weeks 2 and 3 are interesting weeks for handicapping. Many wise guys view them as over-reaction weeks, where the general public hammers teams that have looked like crap, but aren't really that bad. Northwestern surely fits the bill. Baylor may as well, but God have they looked awful. I'm also looking at BYU this week, even though Mangum may be out. Wisky travels to Provo and has to play at altitude. This number sits at 16.5 and I'm hoping to grab it at 17. Seems like too much value for BYU.

I don't bet on humans, they are too unreliable.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Funny you bring that game up. I got in early on O74.5. I was shocked when that number tumbled. I feel kind of silly taking a number so high in the first place, but never thought it would go down. Any idea why it dropped?

A service with a big following is on it at u74.5, but those extra 7 points makes me ok playing the over.

 

[NewEra 2014]

I am seeing Purdue getting 7 to 7-1/2 against Missouri. I don't think the betting public has caught up to these teams just yet, and I would take Purdue and the points, particularly if you can get that 1/2 point hook. I expect Purdue to win this game outright.

 

[Grant Green]

A service with a big following is on it at u74.5, but those extra 7 points makes me ok playing the over.

That must be it. Yeah, Im thinking about refiring at 68.5

 

[Grant Green]

I am seeing Purdue getting 7 to 7-1/2 against Missouri. I don't think the betting public has caught up to these teams just yet, and I would take Purdue and the points, particularly if you can get that 1/2 point hook. I expect Purdue to win this game outright.

one step ahead of you. It's on my card already. I agree. Purdue a bit under valued. Missou defense not good.

 

[fairgambit]

Mrs. Gambit, my wife and a Pitt alum, knows very little about college football but entered Pick'em this year in my place and is doing well (tied for 3rd last week). Her advice this week? "Take Okie State and give till the cows come home."

 

[The_Unit]

Three games really stand out to me this week.

-UCLA -3 @ Memphis.
-Iowa State -9.5 @ Akron
-Oklahoma State -13.5 @ Pitt

With that being said, I fully am prepared to lose all three bets. I am also a fan of teasing those games while throwing ND in there against BC. Tennessee is an intriguing bet against Florida too.

 

[artsandletters]

That must be it. Yeah, Im thinking about refiring at 68.5

I retired at 62.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Three games really stand out to me this week.

-UCLA -3 @ Memphis.
-Iowa State -9.5 @ Akron
-Oklahoma State -13.5 @ Pitt

With that being said, I fully am prepared to lose all three bets. I am also a fan of teasing those games while throwing ND in there against BC. Tennessee is an intriguing bet against Florida too.

Don't do it. There is no situation where teasing college games would be more profitable than playing them straight in the long run.

 

[Grant Green]

Don't do it. There is no situation where teasing college games would be more profitable than playing them straight in the long run.

Agreed. Tease pro games where the spreads are tighter and only look to tease through key numbers, like 3 and 7.

 

[Grant Green]

Three games really stand out to me this week.

-UCLA -3 @ Memphis.
-Iowa State -9.5 @ Akron
-Oklahoma State -13.5 @ Pitt

With that being said, I fully am prepared to lose all three bets. I am also a fan of teasing those games while throwing ND in there against BC. Tennessee is an intriguing bet against Florida too.

I'd be wary of Iowa State coming off a heartbreaking loss in a rivalry game, giving points on the road to an Akron team that probably isn't as bad as they looked vs PSU. The Pitt game is a tricky one to handicap. My power ratings only have this game at -9.5 for Ok St. and that includes a 1.5 point deduction for Pitt coming off an emotional "rivalry" game. If Pitt can run on Ok St like they did at times vs PSU, I like Pitt to cover.

I bet UCLA Memphis over 70.5. Don't have an opinion on the side.

 

[wbcincy]

Kentucky +7 and Cincinnati moneyline +175.

Once you win big on those, get after Stanford -9 late.

 

[Grant Green]

I just threw some pizza money down on Barkley for Heisman. 8 to 1 odds seemed like good value, and I will admit I bet with my heart a little on this one. hedged it with small money on Lamar Jackson.

 

[greenmanRD]

-UCLA -3 @ Memphis.

I really don't like this spot for UCLA. 12 pm CST game (10:00 local for UCLA), Memphis was off last week, and UCLA are at Stanford next week. This to me is a stay away in flashing red lights. UCLA may very well win and cover, but there are a lot of extras about this game that I do not like at all.

 

[greenmanRD]

Of the big games, my favorite play is Louisville +3 at home against Clemson. I like this spot for Louisville a lot.

I think my favorite game overall is Wyoming +14 at home to Oregon. That Oregon defense still has problems and Josh Allen will tear them up imo.

 

[KnightSlayer]

I just threw some pizza money down on Barkley for Heisman. 8 to 1 odds seemed like good value, and I will admit I bet with my heart a little on this one. hedged it with small money on Lamar Jackson.

Yeah, I did the same thing but, I did it back in May and got in at 14 to 1. Still too early to write him off.

 

[Grant Green]

Of the big games, my favorite play is Louisville +3 at home against Clemson. I like this spot for Louisville a lot.

I think my favorite game overall is Wyoming +14 at home to Oregon. That Oregon defense still has problems and Josh Allen will tear them up imo.

With you L-ville. A +3.5 flashed yesterday and I didn't grab it. Hoping that the public bets it back up.
Oregon is a tough call for me. My raw power ratings have the spread at -16. I like Josh Allen, but he lost a lot of weapons from last year. Iowa really held their offense in check. I agree that Oregon's defense is not that good, but they are better than last year. Jim Leavitt was hired as DC and is a big upgrade. I know they gave up a lot of points to UN last week, but most were in the 2nd half when they had a big lead. There is the altitude factor too. If I bet, I will probably take Wyo in the 2nd half when UO gets a little tired.

 

[Grant Green]

Yeah, I did the same thing but, I did it back in May and got in at 14 to 1. Still too early to write him off.

Dude, nice bet!!

 

[denniskembala]

I retired at 62.

Me too.

I am 65 on 9-18 if I make it that long!

 

[Cosmos]

Dude, nice bet!!

I don't claim to be a handicapper but I confess to dabbling. The best bet I made last Sept. was 5:1 odds on Clemson winning the national championship. I only put $20 on the game.

 

[Grant Green]

Pitt has been bet down to +10.5

 

[Grant Green]

They just can't set the point total low enough for Florida games.

 

[fairgambit]

Mrs. Gambit, my wife and a Pitt alum, knows very little about college football but entered Pick'em this year in my place and is doing well (tied for 3rd last week). Her advice this week? "Take Okie State and give till the cows come home."

I am pleased to say I took my wife's advice in a wager with a Pitt friend, giving him 15 (really). He and his wife will join my wife and I at Ruth's Chris. He will pick up the tap.

 

[Chickenman Testa]

I am seeing Purdue getting 7 to 7-1/2 against Missouri. I don't think the betting public has caught up to these teams just yet, and I would take Purdue and the points, particularly if you can get that 1/2 point hook. I expect Purdue to win this game outright.

Boom!

 

[Grant Green]

Boom!

Yeah. My best bet of the day. Jeff brohm knows what he is doing in west Lafayette. Watch out bten west.

 

[Sharkies]

I

I am seeing Purdue getting 7 to 7-1/2 against Missouri. I don't think the betting public has caught up to these teams just yet, and I would take Purdue and the points, particularly if you can get that 1/2 point hook. I expect Purdue to win this game outright.

Good call. Took your advice and Purdue straight up... Thank you for the free beers this weekend!

 

[wbcincy]

I don't originate any college football myself, and 2 of the 3 that I follow aren't publicly available so can't share them. The third's plays usually move pretty quickly after he posts them, but the one still hanging out there this week at a nice line is 179 Tulsa/Toledo over 67.5.

My college football handicapping acumen is a lot more general (knowing who to follow, understanding why lines move, knowing not to tease, when to buy points, playing off-market numbers and beating steam, finding bad numbers on parlay cards, etc). I only originate my own plays in international soccer, college basketball, and props/futures from major sports (with some occasional golf, tennis, and professional soccer).

Thanks for the tip on that Over.

 

[wbcincy]

I am seeing Purdue getting 7 to 7-1/2 against Missouri. I don't think the betting public has caught up to these teams just yet, and I would take Purdue and the points, particularly if you can get that 1/2 point hook. I expect Purdue to win this game outright.

Well done.

Three games really stand out to me this week.

-UCLA -3 @ Memphis.
-Iowa State -9.5 @ Akron
-Oklahoma State -13.5 @ Pitt

With that being said, I fully am prepared to lose all three bets. I am also a fan of teasing those games while throwing ND in there against BC. Tennessee is an intriguing bet against Florida too.

2 for 3 is good work.

Kentucky +7 and Cincinnati moneyline +175.

Once you win big on those, get after Stanford -9 late.

I actually went with Kentucky moneyline at +195 and Cincinnati moneyline (had dropped to +135) and hit both (thank you Miami U for throwing with 1:08 left and ahead by 3). Stanford was a disaster, and that line should've told me it was going to be.

Of the big games, my favorite play is Louisville +3 at home against Clemson. I like this spot for Louisville a lot.

I think my favorite game overall is Wyoming +14 at home to Oregon. That Oregon defense still has problems and Josh Allen will tear them up imo.

You're banished from this thread.

 

[Grant Green]

Well done.



2 for 3 is good work.



I actually went with Kentucky moneyline at +195 and Cincinnati moneyline (had dropped to +135) and hit both (thank you Miami U for throwing with 1:08 left and ahead by 3). Stanford was a disaster, and that line should've told me it was going to be.



You're banished from this thread.

Yeah. The unit had a good week. Greenman actually had pretty good reasoning (although I did end up betting Oregon) and did have a good call on ucla. Sometimes the handicap is good but the game goes the other way.

 

[Grant Green]

A service with a big following is on it at u74.5, but those extra 7 points makes me ok playing the over.

So, did you see this got steamed all the way back to 74.5? That line got crushed too. Makes me wonder a little bit.

 

[greenmanRD]

You're banished from this thread.

I was right on the money about UCLA....and nothing else. (I would've bet the over in UCLA/Memphis, but not the spread, both hit with how I thought about the game).

Just don't listen to me on anything else

 

[greenmanRD]

Did anyone grab anything with the new lines yesterday? Some of these games have looked pretty intriguing to me so far.

Georgia Tech -7.5 vs. Pitt - Pitt is on a 2 game losing streak and has to go on the road to open conference play. This is a tough spot for them, and their S&P numbers (albeit early in the season) are quite terrible (their non pre-season included numbers have them 124th in the country right now).

Mississippi State +7/+6.5 @ Georgia - This line is way too high given how good Mississippi State has been this season, it should be Georgia -3 imo, instead you can get 4 more points.

Syracuse +23.5 @ LSU - I know this is a night game in Tiger Stadium, but Syracuse is too good to be a 24 point dog against an LSU team that isn't an elite offense. Cuse could have a big special teams edge in this one too, which could certainly help them with field position, and Cuse is fairly well rounded on offense and defense. I expect an LSU win but something like LSU 31 Syracuse 14 is very much in play here.

 

[Sharkies]

I like this thread and hope we can keep it going this year...

 

[wbcincy]

I was right on the money about UCLA....and nothing else. (I would've bet the over in UCLA/Memphis, but not the spread, both hit with how I thought about the game).

Just don't listen to me on anything else

I believe "right on the money" would've been to say bet Memphis, not to say stay away!

I'm just giving you a hard time. As we continue this thread throughout the year you'll have ample opportunities to mock my picks!

 

[greenmanRD]

I believe "right on the money" would've been to say bet Memphis, not to say stay away!

I'm just giving you a hard time. As we continue this thread throughout the year you'll have ample opportunities to mock my picks!

Well that's embarrassing, I could've sworn I said I liked the over, but it does not appear I did. I did like the over! I didn't like betting the spread as much though.

 

[Grant Green]

I had a fantastic weekend, going 15-8 in college and 5-1 in NFL (expecting a market correction next week).

Biggest win - tied Purdue (+7.5) and NW (-20.5).

Best line grab - tied - Got Baylor at peak of +14.5. Line dropped to 11 and they lost by 14. I only had interest in the under in UT vs UF, but when the line went to +6.5 for UT, I had to grab them. UF wins by 6 on a TD with :00 seconds left, so no PAT.

Worst loss - Louisville. Ouch.

Bad beat - I had OR St +12.5 for the 1st half. Looked fortunate when they got a safety, so instead of down by 2TDs, they were down by 12, with the ball and a minute left. Punter fumbles the snap and WSU scores with 4 secs left.