While the population shift has helped somewhat, I think it’s partially that southern schools going down to the middleschool and high school have more money to hire better coaches and equip a team, but I don’t think IT guy relocating from Boston to Atlanta, or Accountant from Minneapolis moving to Charleston has enhanced the athletic genetic pool. The biggest reason for the Southern dominance is desegregation throughout colleges, high schools, middle schools, and elementary school. Going back to the 70s, 80’s, and even early 90’s, Grambling State- a Black college, had the most former players in the NFL. Today, instead of Jackson State, the Walter Payton might go to Ole Miss. Jerry Rice maybe goes to Mississsippi State, Doug Williams goes to LSU, Deacon Jones goes to Clemson, and so on...
Can a northern team win the FBS national championship anymore?
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While the population shift has helped somewhat, I think it’s partially that southern schools going down to the middleschool and high school have more money to hire better coaches and equip a team, but I don’t think IT guy relocating from Boston to Atlanta, or Accountant from Minneapolis moving to Charleston has enhanced the athletic genetic pool. The biggest reason for the Southern dominance is desegregation throughout colleges, high schools, middle schools, and elementary school. Going back to the 70s, 80’s, and even early 90’s, Grambling State- a Black college, had the most former players in the NFL. Today, instead of Jackson State, the Walter Payton might go to Ole Miss. Jerry Rice maybe goes to Mississsippi State, Doug Williams goes to LSU, Deacon Jones goes to Clemson, and so on...
Ok high school coach here who has coached in PA and now in NC. I do think a northern team "can" win the national title but the only a select few. Ohio State, Penn State are about it and here is why. Ohio State is in a talent rich state but they also have the juice to recruit nationally and get kids from the southeast and Texas so check for them. Penn State is pretty much the big dog in the PA, NJ, MD , VA area where there is still talent and they can step out and grab a kid from the Southeast. Other than that forget about it. Michigan and the rest of the BIG has no chance to win. Notre Dame some will say has a shot and I say maybe back in 1990 but they are a good program but will never be what they were. Syracuese Boston College and Pitt may be bowl teams but that's it even Maryland and WVU have no chance . The talent down here is so deep its mind blowing I truly believe my 11-2 team In NC if they were in the WPIAL would have posed big problems for teams up there just in speed alone. 20 years ago I would not have said that
ND actually has played in a championship game in recent years and made the playoffs this past season. Therefore, you'd have to say that they have more of a chance than PSU. Also, although you may dislike them, I'd say that Michigan probably has a better chance than PSU, though not by much. Neither Michigan nor PSU plays the consistent high-level football that OSU does that makes OSU almost a yearly threat to make the playoffs.
Based on how high school football is dying a slow death in PSU's traditional recruiting areas, I'm not optimistic that it will be in a position to win a championship, save for a miraculous set of circumstances like in 2016, which also turned out to be insufficient.
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PSU may have a chance some year but it will have to be one best PSU teams ever if not the best to compete with likes of Bama and Clemson.
Recruiting looks good but right now coaching isn't even close to being up to par to win championships.
Recruiting looks good but right now coaching isn't even close to being up to par to win championships.
Nope. Drop football and put all the money into baseball and softball. Then expand their games from 60-80 to 313 and give them every Monday off.
Actually we are not far off of Clemsons 5 year average of recruiting, i think you are right it comes down to coaching at this point.
I just don't think that Michigan and Notre Dame have what it takes. Yes Notre Dame has made it but we all know if they were a true ACC team or BIG team that they would never make it and they know that as well and it will only take a matter of time before the committee gets that. Right now only about 10-12 programs Nationally have a true shot of winning and a good portion of them are in the South and Texas
Alabama
Clemson
Georgia
LSU
Texas
Texas A&m
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Penn State
USC
After that I guess you could argue Michigan, Notre Dame, Florida, but that's about it.
Alabama
Clemson
Georgia
LSU
Texas
Texas A&m
Oklahoma
Ohio State
Penn State
USC
After that I guess you could argue Michigan, Notre Dame, Florida, but that's about it.
To win a national championship, coaches at northern schools will have to consistently grab the top-level players in their state and then recruit nationally to win. Most big schools are doing this now. Try to focus on one football-rich state out of your area (Florida, Georgia, Texas etc.) or some top football schools and make a connection. At Northwestern, they've had a nice pipeline to Texas (Paddy Fisher is one of the latest examples), especially in the Houston area. Coaches there know their kids have had some success at NU, and are able to graduate from a good school. No reason Penn State, Ohio State and others can't be even more successful in the south.
That's certainly part of it. I'm old enough to remember when the SEC wouldn't have black players on its team and didn't even want to play against teams that had them. It still cracks me up to see Alabama teams today that barely have any white players on the squad.
It can be done but a couple of things need to happen the biggest, at least IMO, is the way the SEC schedules.
Especially that game in Nov. While everyone in the B1G, Big12 and ACC are struggling with heated rivalries, the SEC has their feet kicked back and playing teams like The Citadel, Liberty, Rice, UMass...
Also Notre Dame doesn't get into any more playoffs until they join a conf. COMPLETELY not this half assed shit with being in the ACC in bball and B1G in Hockey.
+100. Yes the Conf. Championships need to mean something, if not then just stop playing them.
I call this the PSU/Delaney effect. If he wouldn't have been such an ass hat about not having us in the playoff
in 2016 then maybe the Conf. games would mean a little more.
But he played that card now he and the rest of us NON-SEC teams have to pay the price.
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I also don't know how you can have a committee of folks that vary in experience from newspaper reporter to former U.S. Secretary of State (plus a bunch of former HCs and current/former ADs) running this show. It's a joke. I mean, Ronnie Lott is on the committee. FFS.
We are further than you think. Clemson is top 5 if you look at recruit avg rank. They landed 15 5 stars from 2015-2018. PSU got three. Its their elite players that put them over the top.
Yes but getting harder and harder. Requires a "lightning in a bottle" type year. A 1 loss B1G winner with a reasonable loss say less than 2 touchdowns will almost always get in and then they just need to be hot like tOSU was in 2014 to win twice. Will they be at a talent deficiency in the play off? i would say almost always. I would love to see a chart of 4-5 star talent and draw a circle between Texas and Georgia and how many kids are in and out of that circle.
I was born in Crafton in 1967 and grew up in the West End of Pittsburgh in the 1970s when youth football was omnipresent and king in that area. I played six years of organized youth football and then high school football at Bishop Canevin HS, which was Tom Clements' high school. At that time, youth and high school football was the king sport in Western PA.
Now, I'm involved in youth sports as an adult, particularly baseball and hockey. Based on my observations, there are many more kids playing youth hockey in Western PA than youth football now. The popularity of that sport in this area now is amazing. Just go to almost any rink here on a weekend, even on a NFL Sunday, and it's amazing how many parents and relatives attend these games.
Mike White of the P-G wrote several articles this past fall about how many Western PA JV teams barely can field a team (some teams barely have 15 kids on a team) and how only 6 or 7 kids from the WPIAL received Power 5 scholarship offers this year.
Thats really interesting. I had no idea hockey was becoming or is that popular in Western PA.
My nephew plays for an organization that has 26 or 27 teams comprising kids aged 9 through 18. There are several other organizations in Western PA which have almost as many teams. Then you also have all of the high schools. It's just exploded here in the last decade. Many of these kids play the sport all year, because there's 3 on 3 in the summer.
There's no doubt in my mind that in 5 to 10 years, there will be more Western PA kids playing in the NHL or AHL than in the NFL; the numbers probably are getting close now.
I guess what I am saying is this. The population in the north has no declined at all. It has grown. HOWEVER, the south has also grown, it has just grown at a much greater clip. Mainly because it was pretty rural and depopulated to begin with.
I guess what I am saying is, it isn't as if the south suddenly has more people than in the north. It doesn't. It is just becoming more equal population wise. There are other reasons why the south might now be better at football, I just don't see population as one. It is culture. And also, like I said, educated people don't want their kids playing football.
Well the one thing about population shift in Western PA is that it is very true. Other than Allegheny County the surrounding counties are tanking. Where I am from in Greene they are losing population and they are going through a talent and brain drain because of it. Same could be said for Fayette, Washington, Beaver, ect ect
I don't think that is quiet true about the affluent people playing football. Pine Richland and St. Joes Prep pretty much own PIAA 6A ball.
True but look at the age demographics NC is a younger state it is producing more kids,
To be honest, I believe it will be very tough. When it comes to recruiting & talent pool, it's as if the South is now benefitting from "home field advantage".
1st of all there has been a population shift going on over the last 50 years that is finally starting to show dividends for the South in terms of just sheer numbers. As people are leaving PA, OH, MI, NJ .... and moving to GA, FL, NC, SC ... the population numbers are beginning to even out.
2nd, for whatever reason football is a "passion" in the South. Unless you have lived down here you just do not understand how important football is in the South.
When you combine 1 + 2 , what you are getting is a talent shift. Look at the number of D1 football players from States like PA & OH 40 or 50 years ago, and compare that with the number of D1 football players from PA and OH the last 10-20 years. There is a distinct drop-off. I believe back in December Franklin himself actually made note of how few D1 football players the WPIAL produced recently vs. 30-40-50 years ago. .... Then, go look at the number of D1 football players from States like GA and FL and SC and MS and LA ... and what you see is the exact opposite. All of those States are producing more and more D1 players every year.
.... Obvioulsy, it's much easier to keep kids home in the South and in warm weather, than it is to recruit them away from home to the North to cold weather.
What we are seeing is the South beginning to benefit from it's home-grown talent pool.
1st of all there has been a population shift going on over the last 50 years that is finally starting to show dividends for the South in terms of just sheer numbers. As people are leaving PA, OH, MI, NJ .... and moving to GA, FL, NC, SC ... the population numbers are beginning to even out.
2nd, for whatever reason football is a "passion" in the South. Unless you have lived down here you just do not understand how important football is in the South.
When you combine 1 + 2 , what you are getting is a talent shift. Look at the number of D1 football players from States like PA & OH 40 or 50 years ago, and compare that with the number of D1 football players from PA and OH the last 10-20 years. There is a distinct drop-off. I believe back in December Franklin himself actually made note of how few D1 football players the WPIAL produced recently vs. 30-40-50 years ago. .... Then, go look at the number of D1 football players from States like GA and FL and SC and MS and LA ... and what you see is the exact opposite. All of those States are producing more and more D1 players every year.
.... Obvioulsy, it's much easier to keep kids home in the South and in warm weather, than it is to recruit them away from home to the North to cold weather.
What we are seeing is the South beginning to benefit from it's home-grown talent pool.
I believe that Butler County is growing, and Beaver County is going to get an influx of jobs from the cracker plant that is being built. While it certainly has its problems, Western PA has done a decent job of recovering from the industrial collapse in the late 70s and 1980s and reinventing itself. This area could've gone the way of Gary, IN or Detroit, but it really has not.
PA has 12,800,000 people and is growing at a 0.82% clip
NC has 10,400,000 people and is growing at a 8.9% clip
Plus NC has a higher % of young people that can/will have kids. Not too long from now PA<NC in population. This is a trend in the entire SE
NC has 10,400,000 people and is growing at a 8.9% clip
Plus NC has a higher % of young people that can/will have kids. Not too long from now PA<NC in population. This is a trend in the entire SE
Nope. Pennsylvania has 3,270,584 people from the ages of 0-19.
North Carolina has 2,193,360 for the same age group.
try again. (Like I said, it is a myth)
Wrong again.
North Carolina has 3,078,043 people between the ages of 20-44
Pennsylvania has 4,254,648
I don't need to. We are talking about "can a northern team with the FBS national championship anymore"
It was posited that the population shift make it impossible since the northern states are shrinking and the southern are growing.
The fact is, both are growing and the north still has more people, so that can't be the reason why.
Perhaps in the the future if trends stay as they are, but as of right now, sorry, the numbers don't add up.
there ya go. Although PA has more NFL players than Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, Arkansas and Kentucky.
But who knows.
I gee, I wonder why.
Sorry if I am coming across as attacking you, I don't mean to. But this particular thing has irked me because population actually doesn't account for southern football. In fact, lets not give the whole SEC credit when we are really talking about Alabama.
Again, the final polls from 1970 aren't that much different than this year. That being said though, it would be foolish not to see that the south is doing pretty alright these days in football. But there are a variety of factors none population related.
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Bad news, but many expect Dabo to go to Bama whenever Saban leaves. If so, the Bama dynasty will march on. I'm not sure Saban will ever coach elsewhere. He's getting up there in age and has nothing to prove anymore, I suspect he'll just retire.
Population shifts, weather, talent disparity....all that doesn’t matter....as long as non-northern teams keep taking up three of the four playoff spots, then no, a northern team won’t win it. Next year is likely to be Bama, Clemson, Oklahoma and Georgia....how is a northern team going to win that? The biggest thing that’s slanted in the southern teams’ favor is the playoff system.
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