Season isn't over, we probably win out the rest of the way before the bowls. The lofty goals we were hoping for took a serious hit however.
Does Wisconsin jump us?
- Thread starter psuguy43
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Season isn't over, we probably win out the rest of the way before the bowls. The lofty goals we were hoping for took a serious hit however.
I don't know. From just watching week by week it seems like when a top team loses they drop about 6-7 spots. Expect PSU 8 or 9 in AP poll. Likely similar when the committee rankings come out Tuesday.
that 1 pt loss is already being explained as pure luck by several analysts. my guess is the voters will see that as a 15-20 pt loss due to how the game went.
all undefeated teams ahead of us
Bama, Wisky, Miami, Georgia
1 loss teams that will have passed the "eye test"
ND, Clemson, tOSU, Okie State, Oklahoma
1 loss teams that could be put in front of us
Washington and WSU
easily we could drop from top ten
And there is no one in thei way in th
Problem with Clemson is I don't see anyone else beating them and especially anyone in their title game. Possibly Miami but there wins have not looked to impressive.
INMO NC. State got as far as they did with smoke and mirrors and ND exposed them. Their claim to fame was beating a pathetic FSU team.
It would take half the dishes on the table to break for us to get in now and the other "waiters" won't let that happen.
Good chance that we're no higher than 6, possibly as low as 8 or even 9, after this week.
For sure jump us:
#3 UGA - no brainer
#5 Wiscy - say what you will, but they're #5 & undefeated
#6 OSU - they beat us; 'nuff said
If that's it, we're still top 5. I don't think that's it, though.
Probably jump us:
#8 MIA - still undefeated
#9 ND - only 1 loss, a close one early to the new #2, and just beat #14 by 21
Possibly jumps us:
#7 Clem - media & coaches still love them, but they didn't blow Ga Tech away
Remote possibility of jumping us:
#10 OU - the justification would be they also only have one loss, but they beat the team that beat us, and did it in the same place. Convincingly. I really doubt this happens.
My prediction is #7, with:
1-bama
2-UGA
3/4/5-Wiscy, OSU, ND in some order
6-either MIA or Clem
If we win out and get no outrageous help, we'll probably finish the regular season at least 6, maybe 5. Unfortunately, it would take OSU losing to two of IA/MSU/UM to put PSU in the B1G CG. Otherwise, IMO at least two and maybe three of the teams ahead of us would have to have a really bad loss to put us in the CFP.
Having gotten all that off my chest
, I'll be thrilled if we're somehow still in the top five today.
For sure jump us:
#3 UGA - no brainer
#5 Wiscy - say what you will, but they're #5 & undefeated
#6 OSU - they beat us; 'nuff said
If that's it, we're still top 5. I don't think that's it, though.
Probably jump us:
#8 MIA - still undefeated
#9 ND - only 1 loss, a close one early to the new #2, and just beat #14 by 21
Possibly jumps us:
#7 Clem - media & coaches still love them, but they didn't blow Ga Tech away
Remote possibility of jumping us:
#10 OU - the justification would be they also only have one loss, but they beat the team that beat us, and did it in the same place. Convincingly. I really doubt this happens.
My prediction is #7, with:
1-bama
2-UGA
3/4/5-Wiscy, OSU, ND in some order
6-either MIA or Clem
If we win out and get no outrageous help, we'll probably finish the regular season at least 6, maybe 5. Unfortunately, it would take OSU losing to two of IA/MSU/UM to put PSU in the B1G CG. Otherwise, IMO at least two and maybe three of the teams ahead of us would have to have a really bad loss to put us in the CFP.
Having gotten all that off my chest
, I'll be thrilled if we're somehow still in the top five today.
There is a ledge on a building somewhere that is waiting for you.
We need a whole lot of things to fall into place for us, starting with us taking care of our own business and winning out. We should be significant favorites in each of our last four games. (This week: can't let Ohio State beat us twice!).
ND looks real good right now, and while their remaining schedule is interesting, they will also be solid favorites in each game.
Georgia - same thing until the SEC title game.
Wisconsin - Their excellent tailback, Taylor, left the game with an ankle yesterday. Probably not a long-term injury (hope not), but if he is out for a game, like vs. Michigan, they are more vulnerable to get upset. They are solid, unspectacular, and really can't hold up in the CFP, ala Mich. State a few years back.
Tough road ahead to get to our goals for the season, but not mathematically out of it yet.
A NY6 Bowl is still highly likely. A trip to Arizona or Miami in late December is a good reward all around, just not where we want to be.
IF we finish 12-1, and the only loss is a 1 pointer at the Shoe to a playoff team.... will we look back at this season as a success? I will.
ND looks real good right now, and while their remaining schedule is interesting, they will also be solid favorites in each game.
Georgia - same thing until the SEC title game.
Wisconsin - Their excellent tailback, Taylor, left the game with an ankle yesterday. Probably not a long-term injury (hope not), but if he is out for a game, like vs. Michigan, they are more vulnerable to get upset. They are solid, unspectacular, and really can't hold up in the CFP, ala Mich. State a few years back.
Tough road ahead to get to our goals for the season, but not mathematically out of it yet.
A NY6 Bowl is still highly likely. A trip to Arizona or Miami in late December is a good reward all around, just not where we want to be.
IF we finish 12-1, and the only loss is a 1 pointer at the Shoe to a playoff team.... will we look back at this season as a success? I will.
Now may not be the appropriate time to pose this question, but has there been any talk at all about division realignment? Wisconsin can lose at least 2 more games and win the division. I realize things change from year to year, but PSU, OSU, UM, and probably MSU are always going to be in the convo. Meanwhile, Nebraska is all but dead.
No point in realigning divisions. Nebraska will be back at some point. Iowa, Purdue, Illinois, or Northwestern could all return to the top 25. Maybe even Minnesota. The West could eventually be an unpredictable division.
Also, since 1980, OSU, PSU and Michigan have all had stretches where they were not that good.
That’s wishful thinking, man. Nebraska leaving the Big 12 killed their recruiting base. Maryland and Rutgers are just as likely to improve significantly as Illinois and Purdue.
Historically, MSU is like Texas A&M: Second fiddle in a state with a perennial power, usually decent, occasionally good, a few times in a generation really good.
The B1G has four perennial powers: PSU, UM, OSU, Nebraska. All are in the top 10 of all-time winning percentage, and no other B1G team is in the top 20. It would have been better to split them 2-2.
Agree for the exception of Nebraska. They are so far from what they were in the 90s and their chances of returning to such a state are beyond meek. Wisconsin, PSU, OSU, and UM. Those are the 4 programs that should be split 2-2. Though, I would still argue MSU has more promise going forward than Wisconsin.
Miami is not undefeated and they ALMOST lost to a 1-8 UNC team yesterday. They better not jump usGood chance that we're no higher than 6, possibly as low as 8 or even 9, after this week.
For sure jump us:
#3 UGA - no brainer
#5 Wiscy - say what you will, but they're #5 & undefeated
#6 OSU - they beat us; 'nuff said
If that's it, we're still top 5. I don't think that's it, though.
Probably jump us:
#8 MIA - still undefeated
#9 ND - only 1 loss, a close one early to the new #2, and just beat #14 by 21
Possibly jumps us:
#7 Clem - media & coaches still love them, but they didn't blow Ga Tech away
Remote possibility of jumping us:
#10 OU - the justification would be they also only have one loss, but they beat the team that beat us, and did it in the same place. Convincingly. I really doubt this happens.
My prediction is #7, with:
1-bama
2-UGA
3/4/5-Wiscy, OSU, ND in some order
6-either MIA or Clem
If we win out and get no outrageous help, we'll probably finish the regular season at least 6, maybe 5. Unfortunately, it would take OSU losing to two of IA/MSU/UM to put PSU in the B1G CG. Otherwise, IMO at least two and maybe three of the teams ahead of us would have to have a really bad loss to put us in the CFP.
Having gotten all that off my chest
Miami is going to get smoked by Vatech. Unfortunately, that probably moves the Hokies up the ladder.
Nebraska was very good from about 1962 to about 2000; heck even the last nine years they won fewer than nine games just once.... better than Michigan (fewer than nine wins six times).
I'm not sure whether they can never get back, or whether they just made a few bad coaching hires back-to-back like Michigan did. I'm also not sure why they were good for so long to begin with; their home state is not exactly great recruit-producing territory.
The Big XII screwed the pooch when they split Oklahoma and Nebraska into separate divisions and didn't make them play every year. It killed that rivalry. The B1G didn't make that same mistake, but the off-balance split was probably the result of avoiding it.
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