Don't shoot the messenger.

[RoarLions1]

I personally find the variety of positions ok. May be reading too much into some of the posts...though it appears some are pushing their personal position onto others...and that's not ok. Relax folks, again it's ok to feel differently. So regardless of what was posted in this thread previously...

I still respect Willie
I still respect CP
I still respect ps85
I still respect tikk
I still respect dice
I still respect...well, frankly, almost everyone !!

 

[Chickenman Testa]

I personally find the variety of positions ok. May be reading too much into some of the posts...though it appears some are pushing their personal position onto others...and that's not ok. Relax folks, again it's ok to feel differently. So regardless of what was posted in this thread previously...

I still respect Willie
I still respect CP
I still respect ps85
I still respect tikk
I still respect dice
I still respect...well, frankly, almost everyone !!

 

[Colorado Man]

Going out on a limb here. I have read many responses to this thread. My alert notification has stopped notifying me in many cases. What in this thread has refuted or confirmed the rumor of NS's transfer, other than CP's denial that NS is transferring? Is NS back on campus and in the room? Forgive my ignorance.

 

[slushhead]

That's your opinion. In his position, Willie has to be ruled by some journalistic integrity, and he failed in this instance. Passing on rumors without any fact checking is lazy, especially when you allow the rumor mongering to fester for a week without any follow up. It is CP who puts the kibosh to the whole thing, and THEN we start seeing Willie post again. Just poor professionalism all around from Willie.

Nice.

 

[slushhead]

Unnamed sources is not a problem in journalism. It is how the job goes. A journalist can't reveal sources for obvious reasons.

The problem stems from people expecting every report to be right or people listening to the wrong reporter.

This particular problem stems from people expecting the reporters to fact-check before reporting. A novel concept, I know, but . . .

 

[Lion-around]

Nice.

I listened to the FLO podcast where this was discussed. CP admits he put out a tweet to debunk the rumor, than states he removed it because he subsequently felt the rumor had 'legs'. Even some of own highly respected posters here thought there MAY be some issues here. So Willie gets a pass for me as he reported on something that looks like it has been resolved but may have have been an unresolved matter earlier. So it may not have been a rumor; rumor or not it looks as if the matter is over and Nick isn't or wasn't going anywhere. Nick in the lineup is the good news out of this entire discussion. So lets talk about the odds of winning 6 individual NCs in 2018 and end this thread.

 

[jschrantz]

I listened to the FLO podcast where this was discussed. CP admits he put out a tweet to debunk the rumor, than states he removed it because he subsequently felt the rumor had 'legs'. Even some of own highly respected posters here thought there MAY be some issues here. So Willie gets a pass for me as he reported on something that looks like it has been resolved but may have have been an unresolved matter earlier. So it may not have been a rumor; rumor or not it looks as if the matter is over and Nick isn't or wasn't going anywhere. Nick in the lineup is the good news out of this entire discussion. So lets talk about the odds of winning 6 individual NCs in 2018 and end this thread.

125-40% chance to win title
149-96% chance
157-94%
165-25%
174-67%
184-33%

This assumes Zahid at 184

Odds on winning 6 would be very slim: pretty confident we win 3-4 weights. Also, odds factoring in chance of injury or freak upset

 

[Lion-around]

125-40% chance to win title
149-96% chance
157-94%
165-25%
174-67%
184-33%

This assumes Zahid at 184

Odds on winning 6 would be very slim: pretty confident we win 3-4 weights

125 - >60%
149 - >95%
157 - >95%
165 - 50%
174 - >60%
184 - >60%
5 champs has only been done 4 times to date. So while my percentages would predict a reasonable chance to do it, it will be very tough.

 

[Diego Badman]

125 - >60%
149 - >95%
157 - >95%
165 - 50%
174 - >60%
184 - >60%
5 champs has only been done 4 times to date. So while my percentages would predict a reasonable chance to do it, it will be very tough.

With your percentages, you would be looking, at the least, about a 10% chance of winning 6. I know this isn't scientific. I, personally, think the chance of 6 would be less than 5%.

 

[Cali_Nittany]

125 - >60%
149 - >95%
157 - >95%
165 - 50%
174 - >60%
184 - >60%
5 champs has only been done 4 times to date. So while my percentages would predict a reasonable chance to do it, it will be very tough.

My glasses are even more blue and white tinted:
125 - 75%
149 - 99.9%
157 - 99.9%
(Not 100% because I have to factor in natural disasters and zombie apocalypses for Nolf and Zain)
165 - 40%
174 - 83%
184 - 90%

 

[jschrantz]

My glasses are even more blue and white tinted:
125 - 75%
149 - 99.9%
157 - 99.9%
(Not 100% because I have to factor in natural disasters and zombie apocalypses for Nolf and Zain)
165 - 40%
174 - 83%
184 - 90%

You don't see Zahid as a bigger threat to disrupt 174 or 184? Also, 165 and IMar/Massa quite a challenge to tackle again..I was also figuring NATO as the threat at 125, wish my glasses were that blue and white, f*n discussion

 

[AgSurfer]

Zahid is turning into a top level college wrestler, and I hope he does really well next year. Problem is, we have Mark Hall at 174 and Bo Nickal at 184. Unless something changes, it's going to be an uphill battle to get past either of them.

 

[jschrantz]

Zahid is turning into a top level college wrestler, and I hope he does really well next year. Problem is, we have Mark Hall at 174 and Bo Nickal at 184. Unless something changes, it's going to be an uphill battle to get past either of them.

Do you think Zahid would have a better shot vs Baybee Marky or Bo? Not a trap, I just love to talk actual wrestling and not about Willie Saylor

 

[Cali_Nittany]

You don't see Zahid as a bigger threat to disrupt 174 or 184? Also, 165 and IMar/Massa quite a challenge to tackle again..I was also figuring NATO as the threat at 125, wish my glasses were that blue and white, f*n discussion

I was assuming the same as you about Zahid to 184. While Zahid is an awesome wrestler, food poisoning is more of a threat to Nickal. Zahid at 174 has a better shot at Hall. I would downgrade Hall from 83% to 60%. And I like Suriano's chances against NATO.

 

[diggerpup]

Cenzo gave us & his team & family the ultimate moment in securing his title.

But .... honest facts are -- odds he repeats are about 33% with both Massa & IMar lurking.

 

[AgSurfer]

Do you think Zahid would have a better shot vs Baybee Marky or Bo? Not a trap, I just love to talk actual wrestling and not about Willie Saylor

I'd have to agree with you that his chances would probably be better against Hall rather than Nickal. However, I think our guys would be favored in either matchup.

 

[Pennstate1985]

You don't see Zahid as a bigger threat to disrupt 174 or 184? Also, 165 and IMar/Massa quite a challenge to tackle again..I was also figuring NATO as the threat at 125, wish my glasses were that blue and white, f*n discussion

I see your point about 165, but not sure you are considering the gain Cenzo should have between fr and soph years. Imar doesn't have much more upside imo, but Cenzo does. Just look how he progressed over the course of his fr season. Same with Hall.

 

[mcruny42]

I think Mark Hall having a full year to truly settle into 174 and another year of Zahid & BoJo having to maintain 174 would favor Mark in a rematch. But Zahid and BoJo are serious title threats so I'd have Mark at around a 50% chance of repeating. However, I think his odds are better than the other 2 who I'd say are around a 25% chance.

 

[Flying_Tiger]

I see your point about 165, but not sure you are considering the gain Cenzo should have between fr and soph years. Imar doesn't have much more upside imo, but Cenzo does. Just look how he progressed over the course of his fr season. Same with Hall.

Not that I necessary disagree with that, but IMar is extremely talented and could come in next year as a man on a mission. Look at what Gilman did at Trials after not winning an NCAA title. That being said, Joseph really stepped up his game and could continue to improve on last year. I know I enjoy his style of wrestling; a larger version of Andrew Long with those cement hips. 165 should the most exciting weight to follow next year.

 

[RoarLions1]

Re. Zahid V...
He is a threat for the title, wherever he ends up, 174 or 184. Honestly, he's that good. Just my opinion, of course, though this one is pretty obvious, no?

Re. 165...
Yes, Cenzo made great gains as a freshman. Objectively speaking, though, IMar handled Cenzo 8-5 just 2 weeks prior to NCAA's, and was never really in trouble. Massa lost 3 times total, twice to IMar, once to Cenzo, but he's right there too. Stepping back, a neutral fan might say IMar is still the man to beat at 165, with Cenzo close behind, and Massa right there too. It'll be settled on the mat...

 

[Pennstate1985]

Not that I necessary disagree with that, but IMar is extremely talented and could come in next year as a man on a mission. Look at what Gilman did at Trials after not winning an NCAA title. That being said, Joseph really stepped up his game and could continue to improve on last year. I know I enjoy his style of wrestling; a larger version of Andrew Long with those cement hips. 165 should the most exciting weight to follow next year.

I have tons of respect for Imar, and wouldn't doubt him being on a mission.

 

[Pennstate1985]

Re. Zahid V...
He is a threat for the title, wherever he ends up, 174 or 184. Honestly, he's that good. Just my opinion, of course, though this one is pretty obvious, no?

Re. 165...
Yes, Cenzo made great gains as a freshman. Objectively speaking, though, IMar handled Cenzo 8-5 just 2 weeks prior to NCAA's, and was never really in trouble. Massa lost 3 times total, twice to IMar, once to Cenzo, but he's right there too. Stepping back, a neutral fan might say IMar is still the man to beat at 165, with Cenzo close behind, and Massa right there too. It'll be settled on the mat...

It needs to be settled on message boards Roar, where we have the decided advantage over Illinois and Missouri. Honestly, I'm a little more afraid of Massa than Imar. Unless Imar changes his go-to moves, I believe Cenzo has a pretty decent read on him. Cenzo has only met Massa once and so I'm a little more reticent on that matchup.

As for Zahid, I thought he would win it last year. He's that good. He will win at least one title in his career, and I'm undecided whether he matches up better with Hall or Bo. I lean toward him matching up better against Bo because I think he'd be good against Bo's throws.

 

[NittanyLion84]

To me, it comes down to whether IMar regains the gas tank he had his freshman year. The last two years he has been vulnerable when someone has been able to push the pace hard, the entire match and not allow IMar to control the pace.

 

[CentexLion]

My glasses are even more blue and white tinted:
125 - 75%
149 - 99.9%
157 - 99.9%
(Not 100% because I have to factor in natural disasters and zombie apocalypses for Nolf and Zain)
165 - 40%
174 - 83%
184 - 90%

Just from probability theory, to show how hard it is to win 5, notwithstanding 6:

jschrantz: 2% chance of happening
Lion-Around: 10% chance of happening:
Cali-Nittany (with blue tinted glasses on): 22% chance of happening

Not great odds, but I would never doubt Cael and the guys being ready and peaking at this time in March

 

[jack66]

IMar at his best is still the favorite at 165 IMO.

I think though this is a clear case where the room tilts the scales in Cenzo's favor. IMar was not particularly impressive at nationals last year, even before finals.

Two weeks earlier he looked fine at Bigs, but he had only two tough matches ... CJ and Massa. At NCAA's he had tough matches against Wanzek, Rogers and Zeke before meeting Joseph. Of course Cenzo had a tough row too, but he seemed better prepared for the grind.

 

[Grass]

I think one aspect that people aren't taking into consideration in regards to Cenzo is confidence. He not only pinned IMAR, but was most likely going to beat him without that inside trip. Confidence can be deadly. He may have had some doubts against IMAR the first two times they wrestled, but now he knows he can beat him.

 

[slushhead]

Okay, I'll be the one to step up today and take on the necessary chore . . .

CENZO WILL NEVER LOSE TO IMAR AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[NoVa Lion]

Okay, I'll be the one to step up today and take on the necessary chore . . .

CENZO WILL NEVER LOSE TO IMAR AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THANK YOU SLUSH, I NEEDED THAT.

 

[greenmanRD]

I think one aspect that people aren't taking into consideration in regards to Cenzo is confidence. He not only pinned IMAR, but was most likely going to beat him without that inside trip. Confidence can be deadly. He may have had some doubts against IMAR the first two times they wrestled, but now he knows he can beat him.

I would not say for certain that he was most likely going to win without the inside trip. There was still like 1:50 of the period left and IMAR was going to keep coming. He was 1 takedown away from being behind again.

 

[NoVa Lion]

I would not say for certain that he was most likely going to win without the inside trip. There was still like 1:50 of the period left and IMAR was going to keep coming. He was 1 takedown away from being behind again.

So you think IMar was more likely to win the match at that point. He only scored 1 very close TD early in the match and hadn't scored again or shown any ability to ride Cenzo if he did get a TD which means that would really only tie the match. All moot since the trip and TD did happen and I enjoyed it VERY much.

 

[purescurve]

Who is going to work with Imar now that Perry is with the HWC?

 

[greenmanRD]

So you think IMar was more likely to win the match at that point. He only scored 1 very close TD early in the match and hadn't scored again or shown any ability to ride Cenzo if he did get a TD which means that would really only tie the match. All moot since the trip and TD did happen and I enjoyed it VERY much.

I didn't say that Imar was more likely to win the match. I said I'm not sure Cenzo was most likely going to win the match. It was a 1 takedown match, I wouldn't have bet against Imar getting a takedown, and I'm guessing at the start of the 3rd period not many here would've either. In my mind it was 50-50.

And yes, I enjoyed the inside trip and pin very much too.

 

[CowboyUp61]

Who is going to work with Imar now that Perry is with the HWC?

Interesting question. I think that Perry had probably gotten as much out of Imar as he could (or Imart had gotten as much out of Perry as he could) and a change in coaching to Poeta might raise him off of a plateau.

Hope so, we need him

 

[a_mshaffer]

Don't forget Daniel Lewis. Cenzo's match with him was not a walk in the park. I'd like to see Lewis and Massa.

 

[tikk10]

Don't forget Daniel Lewis. Cenzo's match with him was not a walk in the park. I'd like to see Lewis and Massa.

I can't recall where, but I've seen more than a few sources suggest that Lewis is moving up to 174 next year. That would make some sense because he spent the entire third period gassed against Cenzo at NCAAs.

 

[James P. Whitters III]

He is moving to 174 and Miklus is going 197. They will both be very tough at these weights imo. Miklus is my dark horse guy to win it all at 197. 2 time AA who really struggled with the cut and will not be small at all at 197.

 

[jschrantz]

He is moving to 174 and Miklus is going 197. They will both be very tough at these weights imo. Miklus is my dark horse guy to win it all at 197. 2 time AA who really struggled with the cut and will not be small at all at 197.

Would sure help PSU if Moore didn't win 197.

 

[PSUcup1]

I didn't say that Imar was more likely to win the match. I said I'm not sure Cenzo was most likely going to win the match. It was a 1 takedown match, I wouldn't have bet against Imar getting a takedown, and I'm guessing at the start of the 3rd period not many here would've either. In my mind it was 50-50.

And yes, I enjoyed the inside trip and pin very much too.

IMAR was shot come 3rd period. thats why he went upper body in the first place, trying to end it quickly . No chance he wins that match IMO

 

[greenmanRD]

IMAR was shot come 3rd period. thats why he went upper body in the first place, trying to end it quickly . No chance he wins that match IMO

He got in really deep on his unders and nearly had a trip. I know that Vincenzo was able to maintain his composure/posture and execute an inside trip of his own, but let's not act like IMar had no chance at a takedown in the 3rd. It's awfully easy to say after Cenzo scored his trip and fall that IMar had no chance, I just don't know how someone with IMar's resume can be dismissed as having no chance.

 

[El-Jefe]

Would sure help PSU if Moore didn't win 197.

Renda also figures to be a title contender.