That is how Vegas, and anyone that wins long term, will set their lines. Collect data, make a model, run your numbers against the model, come out with your line.
I do it for college basketball, but don't with college football.
Fan Duel says OSU -5.5
- Thread starter okinburg1
- Start date
I do it for college basketball, but don't with college football.
ESPN does two of them...Bill Connelly's SP+, and the ESPN FPI. But you've got ones like Sagarin, Massey (and the Massey Composite, which takes several different ratings into account), ones from paid services, etc.
Based on history, the spread is too close. Probably should favor OSU by two score. Under Day, we play tight for two or three quarters with OSU playing very conservatively then they open it up and blow us out in the fourth.
I’ve been a degenerate gambler for a long time, have won a hella lot more than I’ve lost and not once have I’ve listened to anything, anyone on ESPN has said.
How can anyone compare stats based on schedules that are different - in some cases, vastly different.
Perfect example - my ND who has now played 4 straight ranked teams. Like it or not, many consider them a top 10 team and dangerous as he!!
I couldn't be happier that ND destroyed USC last night but losing to Louisville (who lost to Pitt) isn't a great loss.
Not sure about ND being a top 10 team right now. Top 15--sure--with potential to grow offensively into a top 10.
Though ND is a great example of why we need a much larger playoff because they could easily be a top 10 team that could challenge for a title by December.
I'd stop now then...if you're not making your own numbers, then the chances of losing moving forward are much higher than the chances of winning.
ND will finish top 10 if they beat Clemson.
That’s what I’m saying, but in the past two days I’ve heard numerous references to “power rankings”.
Agreed. Their schedule the rest of the way is very manageable.
Yeah, outside of Clemson, we've already went through the tough part of our schedule. I honestly think we handle Clemson this year as their OL and DL look weaker than most Clemson teams of the past.
LOL ok. Stats don't represent things 1:1 and are variable to every matchup. Five of those 12 wins our opponents have are from Iowa, who has a hard time completing a forward pass. Winning at ND in that environment with all the pressure OSU had coming into that game was very impressive. Not to mention, a first year starting QB...that is a quality win.
This is the most nervous I’ve been prior to a showdown with OSU - I think it’s because this is the best we’ve actually matched up in a long time (maybe the better roster?). If Franklin can’t do it this year, am I giving up hope of getting over the hump?
who knows
the entire dynamics change after this year and it will basically be impossible for anybody to go through their schedule without a loss
but it is going to be a let down if Franklin doesn't win this one, and a huge let down if osu somehow dominates it
I think the keys for PSU on offense are:
-Can the RT protect?
-Can Allar maintain control? (no turnovers & limit bad passes). Certainly his biggest game thus far.
-Can PSU continue sustained drives?
-Does Harrison Wallace step up as a 2nd receiving threat?
On defense PSU must:
-Limit Harrison's impact
-Consistently pressure McCord
-Keep their TE Stover from having his way in the middle of the field.
-Limit OSUs RBs from big chunk outside rushing gains (DEs must be stout against outside runs)
Your thoughts?
Really good points...agree on all...especially the point on Stover! Everyone loses track of TE's and he has been around forever it seems like making plays. Also, we have been vulnerable in the middle of the field on defense at times.
I worry about the right side of the line for sure...or wherever Caedan is.
Your point about the DE's and outside rushing lanes is critical. Can't have them over-rushing the QB, not getting there, and then giving McCord free access to run, or the RB's big gaps.
This game will require all the fundamentals and discipline needed to pull off the win. That is usually where we fall short...either missing blocks, tackles, turnovers, etc.
I will add...can't have special teams blunders, especially fumbles or missed FG's. Can't leave points on the board.
Agree about fundamentals, especially tackling, which must be sure. As you pointed out, Special Teams play will be critical. Thompson, Felkins must produce positive results. Thompson needs more height (hang time) on his punts.
I am guessing that OSU held out a few players to try to have them ready for PSU. Purdue was not a serious challenge. PSU is.
Sounds about right, with the Buckeyes getting 5 to 6 more game changing flags, misses or mistakes from BIG refs.
Hartman is 24 years old. Some of the bending and twisting from some of you is hilarious.
They recruited Allar very hard after he had already committed to Penn State. His family has discussed it many times.
The defensive game plan is simple. Double Marvin Harrison JR all game with Kalen and Daequan. Pressure pressure pressure McCord on every drop back, and bury him whenever given the chance. He’s not that good. I think Henderson will play, but not sure about Miyan Williams. I think our D can hold them at bay with neither being at 100%. Traynum can’t do anything against our elite D.
PSU 20
OSU 14
PSU 20
OSU 14
I think that the game plan may be something like that but I don't think 20 is enough to win it.
How old was Clifford? I mean ok..winning at ND isn't any better than @ ILL or NW. Get real.
I've been seeing anywhere from 4 to 5.5 in the last week. Basically, it's a pick em with OSU having the home field points
This game does seem like more of a toss up than in past years.
I agree that OSU likely stacks the box to stop the run, but in all honesty, they may realize quickly that they don’t really need to do that.
My fear is that PSU’s passing game has been focused a lot on 1-2 yard passes to the sidelines. (I swear PSU must lead the nation in pass completions for 2 yards or less.
).I fully expect OSU defenders to be well aware and to try and jump those routes for interceptions or possible pick 6s. PSU has to avoid those types of turnovers. Game speed this week will be much faster than the early season.
As for the D- Tackling, tackling, tackling. That and being careful not to blitz themselves out of position which opens big holes on the line for OSU to take advantage of. D ends have to keep containment. This week they have to be textbook with the basics.
Last edited:
