Fan Duel says OSU -5.5

[rrdd2021]

This game does seem like more of a toss up than in past years.

I agree that OSU likely stacks the box to stop the run, but in all honesty, they may realize quickly that they don’t really need to do that.

My fear is that PSU’s passing game has been focused a lot on 1-2 yard passes to the sidelines. (I swear PSU must lead the nation in pass completions for 2 yards or less. ).

I fully expect OSU defenders to be well aware and to try and jump those routes for interceptions or possible pick 6s. PSU has to avoid those types of turnovers. Game speed this week will be much faster than the early season.

As for the D- Tackling, tackling, tackling. That and being careful not to blitz themselves out of position which opens big holes on the line for OSU to take advantage of. D ends have to keep containment. This week they have to be textbook with the basics.

OSU's biggest problem has been their OL - especially getting push on the running game although it has been getting better lately......mostly the right side. That will be the matchup to watch during the game, One of the strenghts of PSU - their DL - against the OSU OL which is typically a strength.

I read Eleven Warriors quite a bit and their last OL coach was supposedly let go because of not only crappy OL development but lazy-lousy recruiting - the only weak position recruiting on that team.......iif you believe what you read on that site. But some of it adds up as this has been the weakest OSU running game in decades. The PSU DL vs the OSU OL should be the matchup to watch closely on Saturday
I

 

[Obliviax]

The biggest issue will be if our CBs can cover Marvin Harrison Jr. We've got some of the best DBs in the nation and tOSU will go to MH3 often. On offense, TJ Tuimoloau had a career game last year against our RT, Wallace. tOSU will attack Wallace all day. The book on Allar is that he isn't fast so they'll try to rattle him with a huge rush.

Ohio State is a very talented football team but other than MH3, haven't developed any superstars this year so far. They are beatable. ND outplayed them while protecting a lead. ND outrushed them with 176 yards. NDs starting RB averaged 5 YPC.

IMHO, we'll see more of the same. Establish the rush and short/quick passing game. On D, keep from giving up chunk plays.

 

[lazydave841]

their last OL coach was supposedly let go because of not only crappy OL development but lazy-lousy recruiting - the only weak position recruiting on that team.......iif you believe what you read on that site.

'23 OL recruits
#120, 1-4*, 2-3*s
'22 OL recruits
#36, #167, #188, 1-3*
'21 OL recruits
#7, #208, #224
'20 OL recruits
#8, #148, 4-3*s
'19 OL recruits
#36, #119, 1-4*, 1-3*

Over this same period, they have signed 15 top 200 WRs.

Is it recruiting? Is it development? Is it coaching?

 

[indynittany]

Looks to me as though OSU's offense will be somewhat limited. I think our D will disrupt them and, hopefully, force a TO or 2.

If this wasn't a noon game, I'd bet the house on PSU!

 

[rrdd2021]

'23 OL recruits
#120, 1-4*, 2-3*s
'22 OL recruits
#36, #167, #188, 1-3*
'21 OL recruits
#7, #208, #224
'20 OL recruits
#8, #148, 4-3*s
'19 OL recruits
#36, #119, 1-4*, 1-3*

Over this same period, they have signed 15 top 200 WRs.

Is it recruiting? Is it development? Is it coaching?

Not sure as I just visit that site. In fact, I'm on most of the B1G sites - especially the Rivals sites.

But, OSU has dwarfed the rest of the rest of the B1G in recruiting. I believe I read that they have 10 five stars on their roster, more than the rest of the B1G combined (7). Yet PSU plays them really tough every year and Michigan has beat them the last 2 years.

Basically, I truly believe that both PSU and especially Michigan has better coaching staffs than OSU. This year, the OSU coaches and even players seem to be more fired up in the games and afterwards. I'm not a big fan of Ryan Day as you can tell but he is a heck of a recruiter

 

[lazydave841]

Not sure as I just visit that site. In fact, I'm on most of the B1G sites - especially the Rivals sites.

But, OSU has dwarfed the rest of the rest of the B1G in recruiting. I believe I read that they have 10 five stars on their roster, more than the rest of the B1G combined (7). Yet PSU plays them really tough every year and Michigan has beat them the last 2 years.

Basically, I truly believe that both PSU and especially Michigan has better coaching staffs than OSU. This year, the OSU coaches and even players seem to be more fired up in the games and afterwards. I'm not a big fan of Ryan Day as you can tell but he is a heck of a recruiter

They do have the highest ranked recruits in the conference by a margin, but when you have so many high rated WRs in comparison to your OL, it lends to why there might be a struggle within that group.

Another thing that hasn't been mentioned is Hartline as OC. Granted I think Day calls his own plays, but Hartline is a new OC and that has to have changed some things. Additionally, it's probably taken some time from his WR coaching.

 

[Obliviax]

They do have the highest ranked recruits in the conference by a margin, but when you have so many high rated WRs in comparison to your OL, it lends to why there might be a struggle within that group.

Another thing that hasn't been mentioned is Hartline as OC. Granted I think Day calls his own plays, but Hartline is a new OC and that has to have changed some things. Additionally, it's probably taken some time from his WR coaching.

There is a lot of noise in Ohio about Day. Losing to UM twice hasn't played well. He's not a likable guy. If tOSU would lose to PSU at home, and then UM that may be the end of him. Long way to go and beating them in Columbus is a big ask but its possible.

The talking heads here in CLE are predicting an easy win FWIW.

 

[LandoComando]

The talking heads here in CLE are predicting an easy win FWIW.

It feels like both sides are overconfident

 

[lazydave841]

We haven't had to keep our players in for a full game yet this year. Does that become a positive as our players should be fresh and relatively injury free (save for 2 LGs) or is it a negative in that our players have faced no severe adversity?

Key matchups in the game:

1. Our DL vs their OL. Do we stop their run? Can we harass McCord more than we have Stroud, Field, and Haskins?

2. MHJ & Co vs our secondary. Do we borrow a page from ND and double their stud? Do we have King shadow him or do we send Dixon and Hardy in a rotation?

3. Can we move the ball on an improved Buckeye defense? Maryland had some success, but OSU clamped down and took advantage of turnovers.

 

[pennstatepelly]

It feels like both sides are overconfident

I don’t think so. PSU has shut up and just played. Day has turned this year into an us vs the world. I think, THINK this PSU team is ready to punch them in the face. It’s a very different team and feel that I’ve had for a long time. This team is willing to grind and I’d like to think there are some chunk plays they have held on to. Plus, the defense is just nasty. The beauty of it all, is we will find out Saturday.

 

[LandoComando]

I don’t think so. PSU has shut up and just played. Day has turned this year into an us vs the world. I think, THINK this PSU team is ready to punch them in the face. It’s a very different team and feel that I’ve had for a long time. This team is willing to grind and I’d like to think there are some chunk plays they have held on to. Plus, the defense is just nasty. The beauty of it all, is we will find out Saturday.

Oh, I apologize. yes, I agree with that. I meant fan bases/media.
I'm looking forward to Saturday--think we have a great shot

 

[northernbuck]

There is a lot of noise in Ohio about Day. Losing to UM twice hasn't played well. He's not a likable guy. If tOSU would lose to PSU at home, and then UM that may be the end of him. Long way to go and beating them in Columbus is a big ask but its possible.

The talking heads here in CLE are predicting an easy win FWIW.

Day will not get fired after this season, even with 2 losses. Lose again to UM next year? Different story. The game on Saturday is truly a toss up. OSU is hampered by injuries, but that is football. In Ohio, the only rap on PSU is the same as the one on UM. A weak schedule to this point in the year.

 

[LandoComando]

Day will not get fired after this season, even with 2 losses. Lose again to UM next year? Different story. The game on Saturday is truly a toss up. OSU is hampered by injuries, but that is football. In Ohio, the only rap on PSU is the same as the one on UM. A weak schedule to this point in the year.

And that's a fair criticism. Soft schedules by Penn State and Michigan.
You're closer to the situation than I am but losing at home to Penn State then against Michigan again--that seat is hot....very hot.

 

[IANit]

That seems a bit high, especially given the Buckeye injuries yesterday. What say you?

Forget points, if we don't beat them straight up it's because Franklin got outcoached. We have the better team.

 

[Erial_Lion]

Forget points, if we don't beat them straight up it's because Franklin got outcoached. We have the better team.

Back to reality…we’re playing on the road against one of the top few teams in the country. There are obviously ways to lose this game beyond getting outcoached.

 

[LandoComando]

Back to reality…we’re playing on the road against one of the top few teams in the country. There are obviously ways to lose this game beyond getting outcoached.

And as happy as we are with our team why would anyone declare we have the better team. I have no idea who has the better team given our schedule. Allar has yet to face a legit test in a close game.

 

[IANit]

This game does seem like more of a toss up than in past years.

I agree that OSU likely stacks the box to stop the run, but in all honesty, they may realize quickly that they don’t really need to do that.

My fear is that PSU’s passing game has been focused a lot on 1-2 yard passes to the sidelines. (I swear PSU must lead the nation in pass completions for 2 yards or less. ).

I fully expect OSU defenders to be well aware and to try and jump those routes for interceptions or possible pick 6s. PSU has to avoid those types of turnovers. Game speed this week will be much faster than the early season.

Yeah, you're right. I'm sure we've seen the full PSU offense since we had to dig so deep into the bag of tricks to beat the high-powered offenses we've seen so far while facing defenses who've had us on our heels.

I have a feeling Allar is going to show out for this game and people such as yourself will be wondering where it came from.

 

[dswartz]

I already bet PSU on the Money Line (+$155).

The biggest reason why Ohio St can't run the ball this year is because McCord is not a significant threat to run the ball in their Read Option offense like their previous QB's have been. With minimal QB running threat, defenses are able to focus primarily on the OSU RB's and keep them in-check.

 

[rrdd2021]

Day will not get fired after this season, even with 2 losses. Lose again to UM next year? Different story. The game on Saturday is truly a toss up. OSU is hampered by injuries, but that is football. In Ohio, the only rap on PSU is the same as the one on UM. A weak schedule to this point in the year.

Yeah, probably all fair points but I've also read that there's rumblings about Day - like John Cooper in the 90s - not being an Ohio native and doesn't get the OSU-UM rivalry. All of the rest of the OSU coaches - going back to the hiring of Woody in 1950 - have been Ohio guys and have winning records against Michigan. You can probably address this better than me but are there rumblings about this ?

I keep hearing there's noise about Fickell or Vrabel coming back to OSU. I found that interesting.

 

[IANit]

Back to reality…we’re playing on the road against one of the top few teams in the country. There are obviously ways to lose this game beyond getting outcoached.

Sure, turnovers, penalties, bad bounces, etc. can happen. But that usually comes down to coaching. A team that's ready to play won't beat itself.

 

[scrivener]

Yeah, you're right. I'm sure we've seen the full PSU offense since we had to dig so deep into the bag of tricks to beat the high-powered offenses we've seen so far while facing defenses who've had us on our heels.

I have a feeling Allar is going to show out for this game and people such as yourself will be wondering where it came from.

Not being argumentative at all...just discussion...what do you mean by show out? I saw a stat today that Allar has attempted the fewest 20yd + pass plays in the B1G, I believe it was. To me, you don't just totally change your passing approach and offense for a game like this and the rest of the tough schedule, without implementing any of it in prior games. Half the season has gone by and it's clear we aren't some passing juggernaut. Now, does that mean we won't try some deep shots and attempt to stretch OSU's defense, of course not. But, at least to me, you don't just do a 180 with your offense. We could be saving some schematic things or trick plays. We just don't have a good enough pass game to get cute with it all of a sudden. Allar was 1 for 5 in pass attempts over 20 yds plus vs Umass...just not very good in that regard.

 

[rrdd2021]

2. MHJ & Co vs our secondary. Do we borrow a page from ND and double their stud? Do we have King shadow him or do we send Dixon and Hardy in a rotation?

That would probably be a mistake as Egbuka is also projected in the 1st round of many NFL future drafts and he was the one that burned ND down the stretch. Sort of like a 2-headed monster BUT he was held out of the Purdue game because of an injury. Who knows what's going on there?

 

[Erial_Lion]

Sure, turnovers, penalties, bad bounces, etc. can happen. But that usually comes down to coaching. A team that's ready to play won't beat itself.

And so you’re telling me that the turnovers we forced this season was due to poor coaching on the other side? That the coach didn’t prepare the team for the “bad bounces”? And when OSU’s future NFL guys just make sone great plays, it’s due to something Franklin did wrong?

 

[LandoComando]

I already bet PSU on the Money Line (+$155).

The biggest reason why Ohio St can't run the ball this year is because McCord is not a significant threat to run the ball in their Read Option offense like their previous QB's have been. With minimal QB running threat, defenses are able to focus primarily on the OSU RB's and keep them in-check.

Couldn't the same be said for our ground game?

 

[dswartz]

Knock-on-wood, but I just can't see Ohio St scoring more than 20 points on our Defense... they only scored 17 against ND (which gave up 33 pts to Louisville and 24 pts to NC State) and only scored 23 against Indiana. Additionally, OSU hasn't been able to run the ball very well all year averaging just 135 yards rushing per game (PSU is averaging 203 YPG). Hopefully PSU can continue to shut down OSU's run game and get a strong pass rush on McCord to cause him make some forced throws resulting in PSU INT's.

 

[dswartz]

Couldn't the same be said for our ground game?

PSU is averaging 203 YPG. OSU is averaging 135 YPG. Additionally, PSU hasn't had a running threat at QB since Trace McSorley, so our rushing offense is really no different this year compared to the past 3 years whereas OSU's rushing offense is vastly different without a QB running threat like CJ Stroud.

 

[northernbuck]

Yeah, probably all fair points but I've also read that there's rumblings about Day - like John Cooper in the 90s - not being an Ohio native and doesn't get the OSU-UM rivalry. All of the rest of the OSU coaches - going back to the hiring of Woody in 1950 - have been Ohio guys and have winning records against Michigan. You can probably address this better than me but are there rumblings about this ?

I keep hearing there's noise about Fickell or Vrabel coming back to OSU. I found that interesting.

The Cooper era was different. He could not beat Michigan, but has was well liked by the alumni contributors, so he kept his job. Can Day beat UM? He better at least once in the next 2 years. If they decide to move on from Day, Fickell is more likely the guy than Vrabel. Vrabel supposedly is content in the NFL.

 

[LandoComando]

PSU is averaging 203 YPG. OSU is averaging 135 YPG.

Compare SOS. Look at yards per carry by Henderson and compare it to Singleton. Pretending our run game hasn't had issues this year is insincere at best.

 

[LandoComando]

The Cooper era was different. He could not beat Michigan, but has was well liked by the alumni contributors, so he kept his job. Can Day beat UM? He better at least once in the next 2 years. If they decide to move on from Day, Fickell is more likely the guy than Vrabel. Vrabel supposedly is content in the NFL.

Titans may want to move on from him though he'd find another job quickly. Vrabel would be a huge get for Ohio State if they make a move.

 

[The Spin Meister]

L

The Cooper era was different. He could not beat Michigan, but has was well liked by the alumni contributors, so he kept his job. Can Day beat UM? He better at least once in the next 2 years. If they decide to move on from Day, Fickell is more likely the guy than Vrabel. Vrabel supposedly is content in the NFL.

Cooper’s biggest problem was top players leaving after their junior year back when it was rare for kids to leave. If a few of his stars stuck around he would likely won a natty or two.

 

[rrdd2021]

Knock-on-wood, but I just can't see Ohio St scoring more than 20 points on our Defense... they only scored 17 against ND (which gave up 33 pts to Louisville and 24 pts to NC State) and only scored 23 against Indiana. Additionally, OSU hasn't been able to run the ball very well all year averaging just 135 yards rushing per game (PSU is averaging 203 YPG). Hopefully PSU can continue to shut down OSU's run game and get a strong pass rush on McCord to cause him make some forced throws resulting in PSU INT's.

It's useless trying to compare stats with the OOC games because of different teams and SOS.

 

[The Spin Meister]

Titans may want to move on from him though he'd find another job quickly. Vrabel would be a huge get for Ohio State if they make a move.

Guessing it’s pretty rare for a guy to leave the pros for college ball. College has no off season as recruiting is constant. And with the portal it is far worse.

 

[knickslions]

Not being argumentative at all...just discussion...what do you mean by show out? I saw a stat today that Allar has attempted the fewest 20yd + pass plays in the B1G, I believe it was. To me, you don't just totally change your passing approach and offense for a game like this and the rest of the tough schedule, without implementing any of it in prior games. Half the season has gone by and it's clear we aren't some passing juggernaut. Now, does that mean we won't try some deep shots and attempt to stretch OSU's defense, of course not. But, at least to me, you don't just do a 180 with your offense. We could be saving some schematic things or trick plays. We just don't have a good enough pass game to get cute with it all of a sudden. Allar was 1 for 5 in pass attempts over 20 yds plus vs Umass...just not very good in that regard.

As long as Allar continues to not throw interceptions he will be fine. That cost us last years game and a few others to osu over the years. PlayIng clean controlled football works

 

[dswartz]

Compare SOS. Look at yards per carry by Henderson and compare it to Singleton. Pretending our run game hasn't had issues this year is insincere at best.

Removing Delaware & UMass from PSU's schedule and Youngstown St & Western KY from Ohio St's schedule, here is a summary of each team's rushing yards/game and the NCAA Total Defense Ranking of each opponent:

PSU:
- WVU (45): 146 yards rushing
- Illinois (97): 164 yards rushing
- Iowa (27): 215 yards rushing
- Northwestern (55): 134 yards rushing

Avg Opponent NCAA Total Defense Ranking: 56
Avg Rush Yards per Game by PSU: 165 yards per game

Ohio State:
- Indiana (67): 143 yards rushing
- Notre Dame (14): 126 yards rushing
- Maryland (38): 62 yards rushing
- Purdue (90): 161 yards rushing

Avg Opponent NCAA Total Defense Ranking: 52
Avg Rush Yards per Game by Ohio St: 123 yards per game

 

[psu00]

Yeah, you're right. I'm sure we've seen the full PSU offense since we had to dig so deep into the bag of tricks to beat the high-powered offenses we've seen so far while facing defenses who've had us on our heels.

I have a feeling Allar is going to show out for this game and people such as yourself will be wondering where it came from.

Did anyone say we’ve seen the full PSU offense? I missed that. Just commenting on what we’ve seen so far. Relax. The games still 5 days away and you’re running a little uptight already.

 

[LandoComando]

Removing Delaware & UMass from PSU's schedule and Youngstown St & Western KY from Ohio St's schedule, here is a summary of each team's rushing yards/game and the NCAA Total Defense Ranking of each opponent:

PSU:
- WVU (45): 146 yards rushing
- Illinois (97): 164 yards rushing
- Iowa (27): 215 yards rushing
- Northwestern (55): 134 yards rushing

Avg Opponent NCAA Total Defense Ranking: 56
Avg Rush Yards per Game by PSU: 165 yards per game

Ohio State:
- Indiana (67): 143 yards rushing
- Notre Dame (14): 126 yards rushing
- Maryland (38): 62 yards rushing
- Purdue (90): 161 yards rushing

Avg Opponent NCAA Total Defense Ranking: 52
Avg Rush Yards per Game by Ohio St: 123 yards per game

Now compare the rushing attempts
And see how the yardage changed in the second half as those 4 teams we played couldn't move the ball and were exhausted.

 

[Obliviax]

Did anyone say we’ve seen the full PSU offense? I missed that. Just commenting on what we’ve seen so far. Relax. The games still 5 days away and you’re running a little uptight already.

I just read that we've thrown longer than 20 yards less than any team in the B1G. Yet, Allar leads in short and intermediate passing efficiency. If Wallace is healthy, that may change.

 

[lazydave841]

That would probably be a mistake as Egbuka is also projected in the 1st round of many NFL future drafts and he was the one that burned ND down the stretch. Sort of like a 2-headed monster BUT he was held out of the Purdue game because of an injury. Who knows what's going on there?

What do you think we should do? MHJ and Egbuka are a tough draw to defend. I think the best pass defense is a strong pass rush. Quicken the plays. Disrupt rhythm.

Im going to guess Egbuka is injured more than we know, but have no idea about a return. Needed or not, you take Egbuka to Purdue if you can. Needed or not, you play Henderson when you are using your 4th RB and giving a WR carrys if you can.

OSU's rushing offense is vastly different without a QB running threat like CJ Stroud.

Stroud was NOT a running threat. Maybe you are thinking of Fields. One of the knocks on CJ was he didn't take off when he could have/should have.

 

[dswartz]

Now compare the rushing attempts
And see how the yardage changed in the second half as those 4 teams we played couldn't move the ball and were exhausted.

So let me get this straight... you're actually arguing that Penn State's rushing yards are mostly in the 2nd half of games (and, therefore, not as valuable?), but OSU's rushing yards are evenly dispersed for each half and even each quarter? And only PSU opponents get tired in the 2nd half, but Ohio State's opponents are equally strong in each half? That is laughable, but even if it were true - it doesn't matter when we get the rushing yards as long as we get them. In fact, I'd rather be able to run the ball, grind out 1st downs and score points in the 2nd half than in the 1st half.

Regardless, in those same 4 non-FCS games, PSU averaged 3.87 yards/rush while Ohio St averaged 3.96 yards/rush. And if you just take away the one long 61-yard run by OSU vs Notre Dame, Ohio St's overall rushing yards and yards/rush average both decline significantly.

 

[northernbuck]

Titans may want to move on from him though he'd find another job quickly. Vrabel would be a huge get for Ohio State if they make a move.

I have not heard of any contemplated move concerning Day. He wins almost 90% of his games and has kept the program relatively scandal free. Why would OSU move on? 2 more losses to UM and the picture might change.