Flo rankings - 2024-25
- Thread starter amattaro
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No. They’re just adding human judgment to their rankings alongside the metrics. If you ask me if I think Gable is going to run through HWT this season and be a clear 1 seed in the tournament (and likely win), my answer is a resounding yes, regardless of any objective data supporting or refuting that position. If you ask me the same question about AJ, I’d laugh at the very question. I doubt he’ll even be wrestling by March, but even if he is, I’d be shocked if gets anywhere near AA. So I don’t care how you justify it, their rankings are correct for those guys.
BTW, I do think Carter should be above Keck, too. I thought that before the all star match, and that result just reinforced it. The margin between Starocci and Keck is smaller than the margin between Gable and anyone else, but Carter is clearly the top dog.
When you think about it the Hodge ignores some difficult to quantify or qualify realities when it comes to wrestling.
Much like the Heisman, is it really 'fair'? How often does an non QB, RB, WR win the Heisman, while players who become game wreckers at even the NFL level, are ignored if they are LB, DL, or even OL?
In football the honor is skewed towards offensive scorers who touch the ball. In wrestling, record and bonus rule, but this considered equally across all weights, can be misleading IMO.
I believe in the bell curve as it pertains to athletic talent density across the weight classes. Simply put there are far fewer talented starters at heavy and 125 than the middle weights. Far fewer males are naturally only 130 lbs, and most of the best larger 210+ lb athletes are playing football or basketball.
No doubt Gable is generational and elite, but let's be honest, aside from Kerk and 1 or 2 others he is often grappling with a collection of dancing bears or dough boys, much of the time, too slow and unathletic for football.
If you win a Hodge between 141 and 184, your path is much harder and you have really earned it. Going undefeated and achieving a high bonus rate against that group of AAs and beyond is indeed impressive.
But life isn't fair, certainly when someone is preordained by the experts, just as is the case with Gable. Maybe he stumbles, or better yet MM or Carter will have something to say about it
Much like the Heisman, is it really 'fair'? How often does an non QB, RB, WR win the Heisman, while players who become game wreckers at even the NFL level, are ignored if they are LB, DL, or even OL?
In football the honor is skewed towards offensive scorers who touch the ball. In wrestling, record and bonus rule, but this considered equally across all weights, can be misleading IMO.
I believe in the bell curve as it pertains to athletic talent density across the weight classes. Simply put there are far fewer talented starters at heavy and 125 than the middle weights. Far fewer males are naturally only 130 lbs, and most of the best larger 210+ lb athletes are playing football or basketball.
No doubt Gable is generational and elite, but let's be honest, aside from Kerk and 1 or 2 others he is often grappling with a collection of dancing bears or dough boys, much of the time, too slow and unathletic for football.
If you win a Hodge between 141 and 184, your path is much harder and you have really earned it. Going undefeated and achieving a high bonus rate against that group of AAs and beyond is indeed impressive.
But life isn't fair, certainly when someone is preordained by the experts, just as is the case with Gable. Maybe he stumbles, or better yet MM or Carter will have something to say about it
They live in that fantasy bubble from April until about 10 minutes into the first PSU v Iowa competition.
Crazy but I have the opposite opinion. I think Gable took the money but there isn't enough fire there when it counts. Not to mention that he hasn't wrestled in two years. I think we will find that he isn't the same Gable from 2019. I'll donate $50 to the Penn State Wrestling Club if I'm wrong.
I get your point about the weights and agree 100% but if you factor that into the voting then the "defensive" guys the 125 and hwt would never win it.
I haven't watched to much of Hendrickson because of the difficulty in viewing other confrences. But watching him this year, the punishment he puts on these other heavies, dang! If Steveson is gonna do the same and stay undefeated he does deserve it.
Because there are so few guys in those weights that can do it, they deserve it when one comes around that is that dominant.
He is not the same Gable, but plenty good enough to win it. Given the strength training he was doing for WWE and the NFL forays, he could be better than 2019 come March.
It’s crazy when you think about it. You can wrestle professionally and receive NFL money than come back to wrestle college kids. I know it’s been done with baseball to football etc but it’s still insane to me.
Let's not be too hasty with the predictions. Don't forget that PSU has a pretty decent big guy too.
Who is more focused-in a better room with a better coach whose ability to plot out match specific strategies is legendary-and who knows knocking off Gable makes him a legend.
New Flo rankings came out yesterday. The entire team is ranked in the top 25 with Luke as the lowest ranked wrestler at #24.
125- #24 Luke Lilledahl
133- #8 Braeden Davis
141- #3 Beau Bartlett
149- #2 Shayne Van Ness
157- #4 Tyler Kasak
165- #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink
174- #2 Levi Haines
184- #1 Carter Starocci
197- #21 Josh Barr
285- #2 Greg Kerkvliet
125- #24 Luke Lilledahl
133- #8 Braeden Davis
141- #3 Beau Bartlett
149- #2 Shayne Van Ness
157- #4 Tyler Kasak
165- #1 Mitchell Mesenbrink
174- #2 Levi Haines
184- #1 Carter Starocci
197- #21 Josh Barr
285- #2 Greg Kerkvliet
So 10 into the finals. I'll take it. Barr over AJ at NCAAs. I'd love to see that.
Just a hunch but look for 125; and 197 to probably be ranked JUST a bit higher than that in a month or two
Barr up to 6 in Flo rankings.
Also.Kudos to Flo for taking Figs out of #1 spot at 125. Generally they never move injured guys. Love it
Now just move Mendez and Levi up to 1 and I’m happy (I believe freestyle results should matter when splitting hairs)
Also..LL up to 16 and Davis up to 7, Kasak up to 3 (they finally removed Cardenas who’s on RS). The rest no changes
Also.Kudos to Flo for taking Figs out of #1 spot at 125. Generally they never move injured guys. Love it
Now just move Mendez and Levi up to 1 and I’m happy (I believe freestyle results should matter when splitting hairs)
Also..LL up to 16 and Davis up to 7, Kasak up to 3 (they finally removed Cardenas who’s on RS). The rest no changes
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That would require AJ to take the mat at NCAAs, which I'm putting at <5% chance still.
If I’m reading it right, by March, Davis will have battled 7 of the current top 11 seeds in latest Flo rankings. Now that’s trial by fire.
Levi ahead of Keegan. Toss up. I’m happy with Levi at the two and then get the 1 on the mat in March.
Have you watched any of Gables matches since he has come back. Still looks as dominant as a few years ago.
Gotta love The Open Mat rankings. Kasak and Levi ranked 1 not to mention messenbrink and Starocci. Team score 174.5
It will be an interesting sight to see both SVN and Kasak stand atop the podium.
What jumped out to me in The Open Mat rankings was the top 5ish teams are closer to PSU vs last years NCAAs 100+ pt spread. Out of curiousity, I graphed the top 25 projected/achieved team points in this Open Mat ranking ("2025") vs. points from last years NCAA Championship ("2024"). PSU is clearly an outlier in both (which is all that really matters lol), but the 2024 NCAAs points for teams 2-13ish was more balanced vs. this 2025 projection.
One explanation could be NIL is already creating the haves and have nots. Maybe this a common early season phenomenon in rankings. Maybe we just have more conentrated talent this year and its happened before. Maybe the data isn't significant and it means nothing. I'm curious what other think?
Maybe early season versus NCAAs?What jumped out to me in The Open Mat rankings was the top 5ish teams are closer to PSU vs last years NCAAs 100+ pt spread. Out of curiousity, I graphed the top 25 projected/achieved team points in this Open Mat ranking ("2025") vs. points from last years NCAA Championship ("2024"). PSU is clearly an outlier in both (which is all that really matters lol), but the 2024 NCAAs points for teams 2-13ish was more balanced vs. this 2025 projection.
One explanation could be NIL is already creating the haves and have nots. Maybe this a common early season phenomenon in rankings. Maybe we just have more conentrated talent this year and its happened before. Maybe the data isn't significant and it means nothing. I'm curious what other think?
There was a lot of movement this year and alot of them were aa's. Some smaller schools lost some points and some bigger schools gained some points.
I am sure this kind of thing has happened in the past before too. Not the NIL part bit the gap in points.
I am sure this kind of thing has happened in the past before too. Not the NIL part bit the gap in points.
It is probably related to your scoring assumptions. If you are assuming the top 8 seeds will finish in the top 8 places, then you are overstating their points and understating the points for positions 9 through 33. This will likely cause concentration in fewer teams than actually score at NCAA.What jumped out to me in The Open Mat rankings was the top 5ish teams are closer to PSU vs last years NCAAs 100+ pt spread. Out of curiousity, I graphed the top 25 projected/achieved team points in this Open Mat ranking ("2025") vs. points from last years NCAA Championship ("2024"). PSU is clearly an outlier in both (which is all that really matters lol), but the 2024 NCAAs points for teams 2-13ish was more balanced vs. this 2025 projection.
One explanation could be NIL is already creating the haves and have nots. Maybe this a common early season phenomenon in rankings. Maybe we just have more conentrated talent this year and its happened before. Maybe the data isn't significant and it means nothing. I'm curious what other think?
That graph should be named The NCAA Disappointment Indicator.
Just looking through the P4P rankings and I’m confused how flo has Mesenbrink at #12. Personally I think he should be #3 behind Gable and Carter. I know this doesn’t go into these rankings but I think he is easily the biggest favorite to win NCAA’s out of every weight class. He is so far ahead of everyone else at 165. Bartlett is a stud but he’s one of the guys ranked in front of MM and I just can’t see that. I think MM wins 3 straight and doesn’t lose again in college with at least 1 hodge and a good chance at multiple. Thoughts?
I’ve had the same thoughts. I think we’d have a “2nd Cael” if the weirdness in the finals hadn’t happened last year. Which was also part of Cael’s master plan, who was seen smoking cigars after like the ‘72 Dolphins. Always playing chess where others play checkers.
Just kidding of course, that match still bothers me and I can’t rewatch it.
Just kidding of course, that match still bothers me and I can’t rewatch it.
You won’t like mine. For me, spontaneous joy gets lost and the effort and journey minimized when forecasting multiple titles for studs like MM (or LL and Barr). Defeating the next highly ranked guy is all I hope for and will never take for granted. One hill I die on says D1 wrestlers are the toughest, most driven collegiate athletes and that none—especially the highly ranked—can be overlooked.
All that pre-coffee crankiness aside, it’s damn hard to see your take on MM's full career not come to pass.
Just my opinion and I’m wrong more often than right —- but, in regard to P4P I see Carter doing things to make sure his knee isn’t injured again. Only saw one Gable match and his performance was simply workmanlike. Saw KOT live over at VT and he looked MEH. Just like last year MM is letting it fly! The guy is a buzz saw and appointment viewing every time he comes out. It’s early yet so we will see how the season goes, but, to me MM is top of the pile on P4P.
I agree. I would be shocked if MM ever loses another NCAA match.
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