Ok, here is my long winded prediction ... I've had a good time over here taking football, thanks for that.
This game looks like a coin flip on paper. Both teams are playing great defense and have great special teams (thanks to the guys who gave me some insight into PSU’s strong legged, do it all kicker). Which offense can muster enough yards without turning over the ball looks like the key to victory.
PSU escaped Iowa City in 2017 and 2019 with arguably better teams than this 2021 team (but the jury is still out on this one). In 2017, that was one of the best (if not the best) offensive teams that has played in Kinnick since I’ve been a fan (early 80’s). The bend but don’t break Phil Parker defense played a great game to keep Iowa in it. PSU was the overall better team that year, but the Iowa defense and Kinnick magic almost was enough to upset the Lions that night. It was a great game and I tip my hat to PSU in that one. McSorley and Saquon were outstanding.
This year’s PSU team doesn’t have the same dynamic offense as 2017 (no disrespect, not many teams on that side of the ball have ever existed). Saquon isn’t running out of that tunnel on Saturday night (thank goodness). Iowa is arguably better on defense and better overall on STs than the 2017 Iowa squad. My point is Iowa has a much better matchup vs PSUs offense this time than back in 2017. The counter to this is Iowa’s offense, which has been a work in progress. The OL has been a revolving door trying to figure out the best 5. Petras has been inconsistent, but has shown steady improvement in touch and accuracy (his arm strength was never in question). If Iowa can continue to keep TOs in check, move the ball at least a little they have a good chance … if not, then all bets are off.
Based on how Phil’s defense plays and the struggles PSU offense has had so far consistently running the ball, I like Iowa’s chances. I think it is possible the Iowa D will shutdown PSUs run attack and if you have to pass on most downs, it leads to Iowa’s back 7 tipping balls and getting interceptions. I don’t think PSU will be able to throw over the top against the 2 deep zone Iowa deploys in most situations. I do think Clifford will scramble on a broken play and burn Iowa for at least 1 deep ball (hopefully not more than that or Iowa could be in trouble).
I think the energy of the home crowd will play a big role in the outcome as well (another reason I’m favoring Iowa, obviously). PSU escaped with better teams in 17 and 19 (both times I think the better team won, but history suggests this is hard to do for even really good teams). I think this time Iowa will finally prevail at home.
One last intangible. KF is from PA, so there is always a little more in the tank for his team (his team obviously knows this and plays with an extra chip on their shoulder). KF is in the twilight of his career so this could be the last time he faces the team he loved growing up.
I think the final will be something like 23-16 Iowa, but if PSU wins the TO battle then flip the teams and PSU wins it …
Thanks for talking CFB! Enjoy the game and stay safe.