Looking ahead to Session III - Team Race Analysis

[Lionpride19]

Despite a tough session II for the nits, I can't wait for today's wrestling. Up early with the baby so here's what we're looking at by weight:

Current Team Score (Only analyzing PSU, OSU and Iowa)
1. OSU - 117
2. PSU - 98.5
3. Iowa - 95

125:
PSU: Med Fft. out - big difference maker at NCAAs (hopefully 100% healthy)
tOSU: 8 Seed Rodrigues (OSU) is favored Thornton (PUR) for 7th (+1 tem point for 7th)
IOWA: Gilman wrestling for title and expected to win (+4 for 1st)

OSU: 118, Iowa: 99, PSU: 98.5

133:
PSU: Law 0-2, no points
OSU: Nato (OSU) vs. Clark (Iowa); Nato slight favorite (+4 OSU)
Iowa: no additional points for clark.

OSU: 122, Iowa: 99, PSU: 98.5

141:
PSU: Jimmy wrestling for 7th vs Martin (WIS) - hopefully +1 for PSU!
OSU: Pletcher (PSU) in Consy Semis vs. Diehl (MD) - if he wrestles to his 5th seed, he'll get +1, if he wins 1 he'll get 4th (+3) or possibly 3rd (+4).
Iowa: Carton is 1-2.. done

OSU: 123, PSU: 99.5, Iowa: 99

149:
PSU: Zain for the W (+4) with potential bonus over Jordan (OSU)
OSU: Jordan (OSU) wrestling Zain
Iowa: Sorenson should wrestle back for 3rd against Theobold (RUT) and either Hall (MICH) /Bannister (MD) (+4 for Sorenson's 3rd)

OSU: 123, PSU: 103.5, Iowa: 103

157:
PSU: Nolf for the W (+4) with potential bonus over Kemerer (Iowa)
OSU: Jake Ryan (1-2) done..
Iowa: Kemerer, hoping to keep it do a decision against Nolf

OSU: 123, PSU: 107.5, Iowa: 103

165:
PSU: Joseph wrestling Wanzek (MINN), expecting a W (+3 to get into Consy Final +4 to win it, probably wreslting Isaac Jordan (WISC)) I'll give it to Joseph (+4)
OSU: Burcher is wrestling for 7th against Sebastian (NW) who he beat earlier in the year 7-6 (+1)
Iowa: Gunther (1-2) done.

OSU: 124, PSU: 111.5, Iowa 103

174:
PSU: Hall in the final against BoJo (OSU) - looking for a big Hall upset (+4)
OSU: BoJo dropping final to Mark Hall (0)
Iowa: Meyer is top 6 wrestling Brunson (ILL) in Consy Semi, which favors Brunson. Expect Meyer to drop into 5/6th place match against Christensen (WIS) and win (+1)

OSU: 124, PSU 115.5, Iowa 104

184:
PSU: Bo bounces back and storms for 3rd with bonus along the way (pinning Parker (ILL) and majoring Dudley (NEB) (+4 +3 bonus = +7)
OSU: Martin wrestling Brooks (Iowa) in final; giving it to Martin as he's on a tear yesterday (+4)
Iowa: Brooks losing to Martin in final.

OSU: 128, PSU 122.5, Iowa 104

197:
PSU: McCutcheon wrestling Robertson (WISC) who he beat 2-0 in the dual. I have McCutcheon advancing to consy final vs. Studebaker (NEB) who decked McCutch earlier in the year; McCutcheon wrestling to seed and finishing 4th (+3)
OSU: Moore losing to Pfarr for the second time this season. Last result was 7-5 so Moore is closing this gap, but still picking Pfarr
Iowa: Wilcke is wrestling for 7th to his seed vs. Brunner (PUR) (+1)

OSU: 128, PSU 125.5, Iowa 105

285:
PSU: Nevills wrestles Gross (RUT) who i expect to beat with possible bonus, advacing to wrestle for 3rd against winner of Kroells (MINN)/Jensen (NEB), still expecting a W for 3rd (+4)
OSU: Snyder takes it to Medbury in the finals with possbile bonus, especially if they need it (+4.5)
Iowa: Holloway (0-2) done...

FINAL: PSU, 132.5, PSU 129.5, Iowa 105.

I think this is the most realistic scenario, but a couple OSU losses and some big PSU wins and we're right there!

LET'S GO STATE!

 

[pish69]

Thanks for posting this. A lot has to go our way today and based on your scenario the only we we can win is if Brooks beats Martin.

Truthfully at this point I'm just hoping our guys come out of today with no injuries and Cael and co get back to work to be 100% and peaking at Nationals

 

[lauren68]

Pride, great analysis and thanks for your time and effort on it. I see our three championship bouts are needed wins. Of those the critical ones are Zain's and Mark's, being against OSU. Like was mentioned by Pish, Brooks has to come through. I think him being on his way out of Iowa, he might do it. I really am looking forward to seeing Mark's match. True freshman on the Big stage in an underdog roll with the chance to bring home the big win for his team.

 

[James P. Whitters III]

1. Clark beats Nato
2. Zain destroys Jordan
3. Hall beats Jordan
4. NN,BN, and VJ take 3/rd.
5. Brooks beats Martin
6. Moore loses
7. Snyder held to decision
8. Nolf bonus Kemdog
9. Cutch gets 4/th
10.I get drunk

If 8 out of 10 of these happen ( number 3 being a must)PSU wins it. It isn't probable, but certainly 2,4,5,6, and 10 seem likely.

 

[dunkej01]

1. Clark beats Nato
2. Zain destroys Jordan
3. Hall beats Jordan
4. NN,BN, and VJ take 3/rd.
5. Brooks beats Martin
6. Moore loses
7. Snyder held to decision
8. Nolf bonus Kemdog
9. Cutch gets 4/th
10.I get drunk

If 8 out of 10 of these happen ( number 3 being a must)PSU wins it. It isn't probable, but certainly 2,4,5,6, and 10 seem likely.

You and many-many others!!!!

 

[RoarLions1]

Love the analysis. Much better to have a logical, thoughtful review in at least one thread, and ditch the emotion. Again, well done...it's pretty close to what we calculated here in Bloomington. Very minor change suggested...the next round of consi's has .5 Advancement...no more advancement points after that.

 

[pawrestlersintn]

Love the analysis. Much better to have a logical, thoughtful review in at least one thread, and ditch the emotion. Again, well done...it's pretty close to what we calculated here in Bloomington. Very minor change suggested...the next round of consi's has .5 Advancement...no more advancement points after that.

And, if that happens, with his scenario, that makes it 133 to 131.5, right? An additional 0.5 for OSU and an additional 2 for the good guys.

 

[RoarLions1]

Sounds right...

 

[BruceK-PSU83]

If Snyder wins with bonus, tOSU gets at least 5 points (not 4.5), right? Or am I missing something?

Also, based on seeding, Pletcher will be favored over Diehl and get at least 4th place. That would be an additional 2 points for Brutus. Hopefully Diehl can keep it going, as that becomes another key bout.

 

[nitlion6]

Snyder wins he gets an additional 4 place points.
Dec 0 bonus
Major 1
Tech 1.5
Pin 2
There are 0 advancement points.
So Snyder scores 4 with decision.

Pletcher at 141 is guaranteed 6th place. He wins his match against Diehl he gets the 0.5 advancement point and guarantees a 4th place finish which is (difference between 9 and 6) 3 points. Without bonus 3.5 points.

 

[Lionpride19]

Ah - thanks for the feedback.

Full disclaimer, I had never fully understood the team advancement points, I had thought once they were in the top eight it was based solely on placement points no longer bracket advancement points but this all makes sense and thanks for the corrections.

I realize the couple errors but that list of 10 things that need to happen cracked me up and I'll try to check them off as we go! Thanks for your feedback and of course go State!

 

[Crusher1950]

Let's face it folks we were out wrestled yesterday by OSU and we won't catch them. Give credit where credit is due. They beat us fair and square

 

[nitlion6]

Let's face it folks we were out wrestled yesterday by OSU and we won't catch them. Give credit where credit is due. They beat us fair and square

Ohio State wrestled a great semi-final round, but can we wait until the wrestling is complete before we concede anything?

 

[tpnlion]

I think Jake Ryan will wrestle for ninth, are there team points associated with those matches?

 

[ClarkstonMark]

I think Jake Ryan will wrestle for ninth, are there team points associated with those matches?

no

 

[purescurve]

Let's face it folks we were out wrestled yesterday by OSU and we won't catch them. Give credit where credit is due. They beat us fair and square

not over till mikies girl sings