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NCAA seeds discussions (brackets out @8 pm)

I'm stunned that the coaches moved Lilledahl all the way up from 8 to 2, ahead of Ventresca who won ACCs over Robinson.

This means Lilledahl is likely the 1, with H2H over Ramos.

Though purely on the coaches rank, getting the 2 is an easier path.
1 gets Spratley in the quarters amd Figueroa in the semis
2 gets Smith and Ventresca.
 
That’s awesome
How did the others Shake out ?
This link was posted a few min ago and either deleted or (more likely) mod moved.

 
Coaches ranks, RPI:
Lilledahl 2, 10
Davis 5, 5
Beau 2, 5
Van Ness 3, 2
Kasak 1, 1
Mesenbrink 1, 1
Bearclaw 4, 3
Haines 2, 3
Carter 1, 7
Barr 4, 10
Kerk 2, 3
LL at 2 and Davis at 5 are pleasant surprises. Beau should be ranked ahead of Hardy, though it's not a big surprise he's not. All the other coaches ranks look on the mark.
 
The 184 RPI rankings tells me all I need to know about what a joke it is. And I’ll bet Carter beating Angelo instead of Arnold in the dual hurt his RPI.
Not so sure about that. Ferrari had a higher Win % than Arnold and beat Plott and Bockman. That match might have helped Carter's RPI.
 
Here's an email from a buddy of mine concurring with my argument that Penn State losing nationals is not only virtually impossible but would be the biggest upset in the history of college sports (makes Michigan losing to App State look like nothing)

It's not even just how good Penn State is, even though that's definitely the main thing, it's how spread tf out the other contenders are. There are 40 dudes currently ranked in the top 4 at a weight from 20 different schools. 9 are from Penn State, and 12 are from schools who have exactly 1 such dude. Nobody aside from Penn State has more than 4 (Iowa) and only 3 others have 3 (Nebraska, Minnesota, OkSU).

And among those 4 who have 3+ such guys, there's tons of overlap. OK State and Minnesota are both there at 285 and 184. Nebraska and Iowa are both there at 149. Nebraska and Minnesota at 141. Where there's an opportunity to pile up points for any of them, it's mutually exclusive and likely to be somewhat divided as the tournament progresses.

Basically, outside of Penn State, the only team with a serious shot at 100 points is Iowa, and they'd have to perform substantially above their current rankings and get substantial bonus points to do it. According to their Flo rankings, they're looking at 56 placement points. Even if they performed to expectation and got bonus points at the same pace as Penn State did last year, both of which, I mean, this is Iowa we're talking about so lmao, they're looking at 92 points. That's definitely not a bad tournament, especially for someone without a national champ, but this hasn't been good enough for a national championship since 1989, and in only about half of years since is good enough for second place.


You've got a Penn State team where anything less than 130 would be an unmitigated dumpster fire and a field where anything above 90 is exceeding expectations.
I now have two tickets for sale to NCAA.
 
LL at 2 and Davis at 5 are pleasant surprises. Beau should be ranked ahead of Hardy, though it's not a big surprise he's not. All the other coaches ranks look on the mark.
If the 141 ranks hold, then 4 Mendez vs 5 Alirez in the quarters with Beau on the opposite side. Awesome!

But that would mean Hardy retaining the 1 despite his H2H lossea vs Beau and 3 Happel. Seems unlikely.

Beau bumping to 1 with everyone else the same is the worst-case draw.
 
I'm stunned that the coaches moved Lilledahl all the way up from 8 to 2, ahead of Ventresca who won ACCs over Robinson.

This means Lilledahl is likely the 1, with H2H over Ramos.

Though purely on the coaches rank, getting the 2 is an easier path.
1 gets Spratley in the quarters amd Figueroa in the semis
2 gets Smith and Ventresca.
I think Luke's quickness and re-attacks where he can get to an angle benefit him most when his opponents are active on their feet. This plays into Luke's wheelhouse. I foresee more wrestlers trying to wrestle him conservatively from neutral. From what I have seen, Spratley and Figueroa are active on their feet, whereas we have seen how Smith tries to slow things down in neutral against Luke. I don't know enough about Ventresca at this point.
 
Again if the ranks hold, Barr would have a good draw. Beard or Salazar in the quarters, then Cardenas in the semis. Buchanan, Ford Focus, Little, Surber, Munoz all on the other side.
With Trephan at 2 and Kerk at 3 in RPI, does that make Trephan the 3 and Kerk the 4 in the matrix?
 
I now have two tickets for sale to NCAA.
That was some great analysis. It illustrates the much different scoring dynamics at the national tournament where the field is larger and the talent is more condensed compared to the conference tournaments where the fields are smaller and the talent more diluted.
 
If the 141 ranks hold, then 4 Mendez vs 5 Alirez in the quarters with Beau on the opposite side. Awesome!

But that would mean Hardy retaining the 1 despite his H2H lossea vs Beau and 3 Happel. Seems unlikely.

Beau bumping to 1 with everyone else the same is the worst-case draw.
That may be true, but it seems like 141 is a toss-up no matter how it is seeded. I could see several different champions if the tournament was contested several times. Among the top 141ers, how would you rate Beau against each? I only ask because I value your informed opinion whereas I am not very familiar with some of the other wrestlers.
 
With Trephan at 2 and Kerk at 3 in RPI, does that make Trephan the 3 and Kerk the 4 in the matrix?
Kerk would mathematically be the 4.

Trephan most likely the 3. Slight chance he beats Steveson for the 2 but that hinges on QW, which most likely goes to Steveson. (Steveson wrestled an excellent schedule, just not snough for an RPI.)

If the matrix says Steveson, Hendrickson, and Trephan beat each other, then I'd expect the committee to list them in that order.
 
I'm not saying we'll break our own record but it's genuinely way more likely that we'd break it than that we'd lose. And I do mean massively way more likely.

Simply incredible.
 
Yeah but that's garbage. This is a great example of humans needing to override the computer. Wrestling doesn't need the championship bout in the semis.
Thia assumes Steveson gets the 1. He didn't get an RPI, so Hendrickson likely gets it with a probable edge in QW.

Agreed, Steveson and Kerk should be separated. Many, many instances when the finals were contested in the semis, but this case is unique.
 
With Trephan at 2 and Kerk at 3 in RPI, does that make Trephan the 3 and Kerk the 4 in the matrix?

Kerk would mathematically be the 4.

Trephan most likely the 3. Slight chance he beats Steveson for the 2 but that hinges on QW, which most likely goes to Steveson. (Steveson wrestled an excellent schedule, just not snough for an RPI.)

If the matrix says Steveson, Hendrickson, and Trephan beat each other, then I'd expect the committee to list them in that order.
So Kerk has only one loss and that to arguably the most dominant wrestler in the nation and gets knocked to #4 to have to face that wrestler again? That is a tough outcome for Kerk! I am no seeding expert in the least, but that outcome doesn't sit well with me.
 
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