Since it looks like this will apply to some of the PSU wrestlers this year, I decided to look at the probability of placing for guys seeded 13 and higher (larger numbers). First I would note that you don't get an awful lot of points for 7th/8th type finishers. On average 8th gets you 6.7 points and 7th gets you 8.0 points at NCAAs. A higher seeded guy that gets some bonus isn't that much different than 8th (for example, RBY scored 5.5 points for 8th last year). An unranked guy that wins a couple of matches and gets a fall may only be -2 points from an AA.
Though AA's are a great personal accomplishment it is tough to win team titles with lower AA's and no champs (and no bonus). Ten guys placing 6th to 8th isn't going to win almost guaranteed.
Over the last 13 years, 4.8% of the guys ranked 13th or above placed. Any higher seeded guy that places should be applauded! NOTE: The NCAA did not seed guys ranked 13th and above until 2013, so you can't tell which guy was the 13th seed and which was the 20th (the first round pairing).
For #21 and above the probability drops to ~3.8% and is pretty consistent all the way to #32 with one interesting exception. Wrestlers seeded #23 are at about 7.7% to place. They meet the #10 first round and winner of #7/26 second round if they win. Even if they lose they have the softest part of the backside (insert Beavis and Butthead joke here). This makes sense when you look at the brackets and who drops where. Outside of this exception (the #23) draws/match-ups matter more than seeds for #13 and above.
Health/potential probably matters quite a bit more than seed #, which I think applies to PSU at 157 and 197. The guy that is 21-14 and has been healthy all year has a much lower chance (unless he is Chip Ness) than the guy that is 6-3 and finally healthy (aka Berge). Even if Rivera at 133 is #13 or something crazy he can easily win the whole damn thing.
I am updating WrestleSim so that I will be able to calculate the updated probability after each round (lock in the results and simulate the rest). Hopefully I can get it done by March.
Though AA's are a great personal accomplishment it is tough to win team titles with lower AA's and no champs (and no bonus). Ten guys placing 6th to 8th isn't going to win almost guaranteed.
Over the last 13 years, 4.8% of the guys ranked 13th or above placed. Any higher seeded guy that places should be applauded! NOTE: The NCAA did not seed guys ranked 13th and above until 2013, so you can't tell which guy was the 13th seed and which was the 20th (the first round pairing).
For #21 and above the probability drops to ~3.8% and is pretty consistent all the way to #32 with one interesting exception. Wrestlers seeded #23 are at about 7.7% to place. They meet the #10 first round and winner of #7/26 second round if they win. Even if they lose they have the softest part of the backside (insert Beavis and Butthead joke here). This makes sense when you look at the brackets and who drops where. Outside of this exception (the #23) draws/match-ups matter more than seeds for #13 and above.
Health/potential probably matters quite a bit more than seed #, which I think applies to PSU at 157 and 197. The guy that is 21-14 and has been healthy all year has a much lower chance (unless he is Chip Ness) than the guy that is 6-3 and finally healthy (aka Berge). Even if Rivera at 133 is #13 or something crazy he can easily win the whole damn thing.
I am updating WrestleSim so that I will be able to calculate the updated probability after each round (lock in the results and simulate the rest). Hopefully I can get it done by March.
